Simulation Results: LIV Golf Mexico City

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.34%	43	29		22
Adrian Meronk	0.52%	192	226	0.10%	38	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anirban Lahiri	0.71%	141	91		46
Anthony Kim	0.06%	1667	101		43
Ben Campbell	0.12%	833	501		56
Bjorn Hellgren	0.02%	5000	501		54
Branden Grace	1.03%	97	36		5
Brendan Steele	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	25	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson DeChambeau	15.65%	6.4	7	1.60%	57	-1.6	Bet365: 6/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bubba Watson	0.73%	137	111		31
Byeong Hun An	0.62%	161	67		25
Caleb Surratt	0.93%	108	67		32
Cameron Smith	2.43%	41	31		39
Cameron Tringale	1.09%	92	176	0.50%	10	-0.5	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Ortiz	2.31%	43	34		17
Charl Schwartzel	1.10%	91	91		39
Charles Howell	2.71%	37	56	0.90%	20	-0.9	Star Sports: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Lee	0.03%	3333	1501		52
David Puig	4.06%	25	19		2
Dean Burmester	2.77%	36	23		15
Dustin Johnson	2.09%	48	29		17
Elvis Smylie	0.16%	625	71		35
Graeme McDowell	0.81%	123	226	0.40%	52	-0.4	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harold Varner	0.48%	208	161		12
Ian Poulter	0.12%	833	1501	0.10%	25	-0.1	Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Kokrak	0.93%	108	176	0.40%	49	-0.4	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	2.40%	42	15		20
Jon Rahm	15.98%	6.3	5		1
Jose Luis Ballester	2.46%	41	41		3
Laurie Canter	0.87%	115	111		25
Lee Westwood	0.30%	333	161		35
Louis Oosthuizen	2.43%	41	61	0.80%	12	-0.8	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/5
Lucas Herbert	2.86%	35	26		46
Luis Masaveu	0.07%	1429	351		12
Marc Leishman	2.63%	38	46	0.50%	10	-0.5	Betfred: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Kaymer	0.06%	1667	2001		25
Matthew Wolff	0.41%	244	81		5
Michael La Sasso	0.03%	3333	276		55
Miguel Tabuena	0.05%	2000	751		49
Minkyu Kim	0.01%	10000	1501		22
Paul Casey	1.08%	93	86		35
Peter Uihlein	0.74%	135	91		32
Phil Mickelson	0.12%	833
Richard Bland	1.09%	92	126	0.30%	45	-0.3	Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Richard T. Lee	0.27%	370	91		15
Sam Horsfield	0.07%	1429	1001		32
Scott Vincent	0.54%	185	91		4
Sebastian Munoz	3.73%	27	31	0.50%	25	-0.5	Star Sports: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sergio Garcia	3.15%	32	61	1.50%	39	-1.5	Betfred: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Talor Gooch	1.97%	51	46		43
Thomas Detry	1.07%	93	19		5
Thomas Pieters	2.27%	44	29		46
Tom McKibbin	1.75%	57	51		5
Tyrrell Hatton	6.28%	16	12		5
Victor Perez	0.75%	133	81		17
Yosuke Asaji	0.02%	5000	601		22
Young-Han Song	0.13%	769	251		39

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.42%	41	31		39
Adrian Meronk	1.29%	78	81	0.10%	51	-0.1	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anirban Lahiri	1.50%	67	56		29
Anthony Kim	0.58%	172	56		39
Ben Campbell	0.73%	137	201	0.20%	37	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bjorn Hellgren	0.41%	244	201		15
Branden Grace	1.76%	57	36		29
Brendan Steele	1.44%	69	81	0.20%	15	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bryson DeChambeau	6.17%	16	13		29
Bubba Watson	1.47%	68	56		24
Byeong Hun An	1.34%	75	41		24
Caleb Surratt	1.59%	63	46		39
Cameron Smith	2.52%	40	31		15
Cameron Tringale	1.76%	57	81	0.50%	47	-0.5	Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Carlos Ortiz	2.39%	42	34		29
Charl Schwartzel	1.75%	57	51		29
Charles Howell	2.61%	38	46	0.40%	15	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Lee	0.45%	222	201		57
David Puig	3.02%	33	23		15
Dean Burmester	2.58%	39	23		10
Dustin Johnson	2.24%	45	34		3
Elvis Smylie	0.76%	132	51		51
Graeme McDowell	1.59%	63	86	0.40%	29	-0.4	William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harold Varner	1.22%	82	81		3
Ian Poulter	0.72%	139	201	0.20%	3	2.1428571428571	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jason Kokrak	1.56%	64	81	0.30%	10	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joaquin Niemann	2.44%	41	19		15
Jon Rahm	6.24%	16	12		2
Jose Luis Ballester	2.51%	40	34		29
Laurie Canter	1.47%	68	67		24
Lee Westwood	1.08%	93	81		37
Louis Oosthuizen	2.54%	39	41	0.10%	39	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucas Herbert	2.67%	37	29		51
Luis Masaveu	0.57%	175	126		15
Marc Leishman	2.55%	39	41	0.10%	47	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Kaymer	0.54%	185	201		15
Matthew Wolff	1.21%	83	51		10
Michael La Sasso	0.41%	244	126		56
Miguel Tabuena	0.48%	208	201		39
Minkyu Kim	0.31%	323	251		3
Paul Casey	1.62%	62	51		39
Peter Uihlein	1.47%	68	51		47
Phil Mickelson	0.70%	143
Richard Bland	1.84%	54	56	0.10%	47	-0.1	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard T. Lee	0.93%	108	51		10
Sam Horsfield	0.58%	172	201	0.10%	24	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Vincent	1.26%	79	51		3
Sebastian Munoz	3.09%	32	34	0.20%	55	-0.2	QuinnBet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sergio Garcia	2.73%	37	41	0.30%	51	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Talor Gooch	2.39%	42	36		39
Thomas Detry	1.68%	60	23		3
Thomas Pieters	2.30%	43	34		29
Tom McKibbin	2.14%	47	36		10
Tyrrell Hatton	3.79%	26	17		15
Victor Perez	1.43%	70	56		1
Yosuke Asaji	0.42%	238	201		24
Young-Han Song	0.77%	130	101		3

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Bryson DeChambeau	15.65%	6.4	7	1.60%	57	-2	Bet365: 6/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Sergio Garcia	3.15%	32	61	1.50%	39	-2	Betfred: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Charles Howell	2.71%	37	56	0.90%	20	-2	Star Sports: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Cameron Tringale	1.76%	57	81	0.50%	47	-1	Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Charles Howell	2.61%	38	46	0.40%	15	-1	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Graeme McDowell	1.59%	63	86	0.40%	29	-1	William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Sergio Garcia	2.73%	37	41	0.30%	51	-1	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jason Kokrak	1.56%	64	81	0.30%	10	-1	Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Sebastian Munoz	3.09%	32	34	0.20%	55	-1	QuinnBet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.