Simulation Results: LIV Golf Korea

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.04%	49	29		29
Adrian Meronk	0.58%	172	251	0.20%	29	-0.2	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anirban Lahiri	0.23%	435	201		41
Anthony Kim	0.23%	435	71		20
Ben Campbell	0.13%	769	1001		12
Bjorn Hellgren	0.12%	833	401		56
Branden Grace	2.01%	50	34		12
Brendan Steele	0.75%	133	201	0.30%	6	2.775	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bryson DeChambeau	8.11%	12	10		3
Bubba Watson	0.67%	149	226	0.20%	29	-0.2	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Byeong Hun An	0.63%	159	61		37
Caleb Surratt	2.05%	49	67	0.60%	45	-0.6	BetMGM: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
Cameron Smith	3.20%	31	26		16
Cameron Tringale	1.18%	85	151	0.50%	34	-0.5	PaddyPower: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Ortiz	2.39%	42	41		52
Charl Schwartzel	0.57%	175	141		34
Charles Howell	2.25%	44	51	0.30%	8	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Danny Lee	0.07%	1429	1501		29
David Puig	6.25%	16	13		16
Dean Burmester	3.51%	28	17		23
Doyeob Mun	0.16%	625	226		23
Dustin Johnson	3.87%	26	46	1.70%	4	5.95	Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Elvis Smylie	0.73%	137	101		45
Graeme McDowell	0.89%	112	251	0.50%	45	-0.5	Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Harold Varner	0.50%	200	126		6
Ian Poulter	0.60%	167	351	0.30%	16	-0.3	Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jason Kokrak	0.66%	152	301	0.30%	20	-0.3	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	7.12%	14	13		1
Jon Rahm	16.69%	6	3.5		16
Jose Luis Ballester	3.85%	26	23		34
Laurie Canter	0.93%	108	151	0.30%	12	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lee Westwood	0.53%	189	226	0.10%	37	-0.1	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Louis Oosthuizen	2.10%	48	67	0.60%	37	-0.6	Betfred: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucas Herbert	2.28%	44	26		8
Luis Masaveu	0.61%	164	251	0.20%	37	-0.2	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marc Leishman	2.24%	45	36		8
Martin Kaymer	0.56%	179	301	0.20%	45	-0.2	PaddyPower: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Wolff	1.27%	79	61		57
Maximilian Rottluff	0.04%	2500	601		45
Michael La Sasso	0.03%	3333	501		50
Miguel Tabuena	0.05%	2000	501		50
Minkyu Kim	0.04%	2500	301		54
Paul Casey	1.03%	97	101
Peter Uihlein	0.85%	118	91		52
Richard Bland	1.06%	94	176	0.50%	23	-0.5	Priced Up: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Richard T. Lee	0.63%	159	71		41
Sam Horsfield	0.16%	625	1251	0.10%	55	-0.1	Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Vincent	2.20%	45	36		5
Sebastian Munoz	1.72%	58	51		23
Sergio Garcia	1.27%	79	46		29
Talor Gooch	1.01%	99	71		2
Thomas Detry	1.61%	62	17		41
Thomas Pieters	1.50%	67	61		20
Tom McKibbin	2.32%	43	46	0.10%	23	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Victor Perez	1.11%	90	36		23
Yosuke Asaji	0.10%	1000	401		41
Young-Han Song	0.72%	139	101		12

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.14%	47	26		45
Adrian Meronk	1.27%	79	101	0.30%	11	-0.3	William Hill: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anirban Lahiri	0.97%	103	81		11
Anthony Kim	0.94%	106	46		27
Ben Campbell	0.72%	139	201	0.20%	23	-0.2	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bjorn Hellgren	0.68%	147	111		55
Branden Grace	2.15%	47	34		11
Brendan Steele	1.40%	71	81	0.20%	27	-0.2	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson DeChambeau	4.00%	25	16		1
Bubba Watson	1.28%	78	81		54
Byeong Hun An	1.30%	77	46		27
Caleb Surratt	2.19%	46	41		38
Cameron Smith	2.71%	37	26		7
Cameron Tringale	1.80%	56	81	0.60%	45	-0.6	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Ortiz	2.31%	43	31		38
Charl Schwartzel	1.19%	84	76		7
Charles Howell	2.31%	43	41		1
Danny Lee	0.59%	169	301	0.30%	27	-0.3	Unibet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Puig	3.60%	28	19		27
Dean Burmester	2.72%	37	23		45
Doyeob Mun	0.78%	128	71		11
Dustin Johnson	2.92%	34	34		27
Elvis Smylie	1.41%	71	56		38
Graeme McDowell	1.58%	63	101	0.60%	11	-0.6	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harold Varner	1.23%	81	61		11
Ian Poulter	1.31%	76	111	0.40%	4	3.4	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Kokrak	1.29%	78	111	0.40%	11	-0.4	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	3.94%	25	17		4
Jon Rahm	6.12%	16	8.5		27
Jose Luis Ballester	2.98%	34	26		27
Laurie Canter	1.61%	62	81	0.40%	7	-0.4	Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee Westwood	1.16%	86	101	0.20%	45	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Louis Oosthuizen	2.24%	45	41		45
Lucas Herbert	2.29%	44	26		38
Luis Masaveu	1.28%	78	101	0.30%	11	-0.3	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marc Leishman	2.26%	44	31		23
Martin Kaymer	1.32%	76	111	0.40%	38	-0.4	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Wolff	1.89%	53	41		55
Maximilian Rottluff	0.48%	208	111		11
Michael La Sasso	0.38%	263	111		11
Miguel Tabuena	0.54%	185	111		53
Minkyu Kim	0.47%	213	101		38
Peter Uihlein	1.47%	68	46		23
Richard Bland	1.67%	60	81	0.40%	27	-0.4	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard T. Lee	1.33%	75	46		27
Sam Horsfield	0.76%	132	201	0.30%	45	-0.3	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Vincent	2.25%	44	31		1
Sebastian Munoz	2.06%	49	34		27
Sergio Garcia	1.71%	58	36		7
Talor Gooch	1.59%	63	46		23
Thomas Detry	2.04%	49	23		45
Thomas Pieters	1.93%	52	41		4
Tom McKibbin	2.28%	44	36		11
Travis Smyth	1.46%	68	81	0.20%	45	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Victor Perez	1.66%	60	31		38
Yosuke Asaji	0.60%	167	111		55
Young-Han Song	1.45%	69	51		11

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Dustin Johnson	3.87%	26	46	1.70%	4	7	Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Caleb Surratt	2.05%	49	67	0.60%	45	-2	BetMGM: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Louis Oosthuizen	2.10%	48	67	0.60%	37	-2	Betfred: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Cameron Tringale	1.80%	56	81	0.60%	45	-1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Graeme McDowell	1.58%	63	101	0.60%	11	-1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Laurie Canter	1.61%	62	81	0.40%	7	-1	Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Richard Bland	1.67%	60	81	0.40%	27	-1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ian Poulter	1.31%	76	111	0.40%	4	8.5	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jason Kokrak	1.29%	78	111	0.40%	11	-1	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.