Simulation Results: LIV Golf Hong Kong

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	3.21%	31	23		18
Adrian Meronk	0.44%	227	176		45
Anirban Lahiri	0.59%	169	91		24
Anthony Kim	0.05%	2000	51		31
Ben Campbell	0.24%	417	151		55
Bjorn Hellgren	0.05%	2000	351		31
Branden Grace	2.31%	43	34		24
Brendan Steele	0.14%	714	226		24
Bryson DeChambeau	12.43%	8	10	2.70%	24	-2.7	Boyle Sports: 9/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bubba Watson	0.40%	250	111		41
Byeong Hun An	3.27%	31	34	0.30%	45	-0.3	Betfred: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caleb Surratt	0.85%	118	71		18
Cameron Smith	3.36%	30	21		48
Cameron Tringale	0.77%	130	111		31
Carlos Ortiz	2.42%	41	34		6
Charl Schwartzel	1.56%	64	101	0.60%	31	-0.6	Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Howell	1.69%	59	81	0.50%	18	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Lee	0.09%	1111	751		52
David Puig	5.78%	17	15		8
Dean Burmester	2.29%	44	31		7
Dustin Johnson	0.85%	118	71		24
Elvis Smylie	1.31%	76	46		8
Graeme McDowell	0.64%	156	126		8
Harold Varner	0.83%	120	151	0.20%	4	3.65	Skybet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ian Poulter	0.17%	588	326		49
Jason Kokrak	0.93%	108	151	0.30%	31	-0.3	Skybet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	3.22%	31	19		41
Jon Rahm	14.42%	6.9	5		1
Jose Luis Ballester	0.66%	152	56		41
Laurie Canter	0.53%	189	131		31
Lee Westwood	0.01%	10000	401		18
Louis Oosthuizen	2.88%	35	51	0.90%	8	-0.9	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucas Herbert	3.51%	28	23		8
Luis Masaveu	0.10%	1000	251		50
Marc Leishman	2.75%	36	34		24
Martin Kaymer	0.17%	588	501		52
Matthew Wolff	0.10%	1000	276		5
Michael La Sasso	0.06%	1667	251		55
Miguel Tabuena	0.21%	476	251		52
Minkyu Kim	0.04%	2500	601		50
Paul Casey	0.71%	141	81		14
Peter Uihlein	2.57%	39	36		31
Richard Bland	1.36%	74	126	0.60%	14	-0.6	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard T. Lee	0.22%	455	151		18
Sam Horsfield	0.09%	1111	501		57
Scott Vincent	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	31	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sebastian Munoz	3.41%	29	23		16
Sergio Garcia	2.42%	41	36		8
Talor Gooch	1.48%	68	41		18
Thomas Detry	1.67%	60	36		2
Thomas Pieters	1.66%	60	41		3
Tom McKibbin	2.30%	43	29		24
Tyrrell Hatton	5.30%	19	16		45
Victor Perez	0.29%	345	91		16
Wade Ormsby	0.02%	5000	131		41
Yosuke Asaji	0.09%	1111	251		31
Young-Han Song	0.08%	1250	276		31

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.79%	36	36		29
Adrian Meronk	1.16%	86	91	0.10%	16	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anirban Lahiri	1.36%	74	61		16
Anthony Kim	0.51%	196	46		24
Ben Campbell	0.88%	114	67		40
Bjorn Hellgren	0.49%	204	101		10
Branden Grace	2.44%	41	36		29
Brendan Steele	0.72%	139	91		29
Bryson DeChambeau	5.46%	18	17		47
Bubba Watson	1.12%	89	67		7
Byeong Hun An	2.80%	36	34		47
Caleb Surratt	1.56%	64	46		57
Cameron Smith	2.75%	36	29		40
Cameron Tringale	1.52%	66	67		29
Carlos Ortiz	2.40%	42	34		1
Charl Schwartzel	2.01%	50	67	0.50%	51	-0.5	Skybet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Howell	1.97%	51	56	0.20%	29	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Lee	0.66%	152	151		51
David Puig	3.65%	27	21		10
Dean Burmester	2.40%	42	36		2
Dustin Johnson	1.53%	65	51		29
Elvis Smylie	1.80%	56	36		29
Graeme McDowell	1.35%	74	67		24
Harold Varner	1.49%	67	71	0.10%	16	-0.1	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ian Poulter	0.83%	120	101		47
Jason Kokrak	1.60%	63	71	0.20%	10	-0.2	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	2.67%	37	23		16
Jon Rahm	5.86%	17	11		16
Jose Luis Ballester	1.36%	74	41		40
Laurie Canter	1.28%	78	67		10
Lee Westwood	0.31%	323	126		24
Louis Oosthuizen	2.63%	38	46	0.50%	51	-0.5	William Hill: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucas Herbert	2.93%	34	34		16
Luis Masaveu	0.62%	161	101		56
Marc Leishman	2.54%	39	36		16
Martin Kaymer	0.83%	120	151	0.20%	40	-0.2	Skybet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Wolff	0.68%	147	91		10
Michael La Sasso	0.55%	182	91		47
Miguel Tabuena	0.88%	114	91		54
Minkyu Kim	0.47%	213	151		40
Paul Casey	1.52%	66	56		29
Peter Uihlein	2.62%	38	36		54
Richard Bland	1.84%	54	67	0.40%	16	-0.4	Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard T. Lee	0.92%	109	67		24
Sam Horsfield	0.68%	147	126		40
Scott Vincent	1.62%	62	67	0.10%	3	0.55625	Skybet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Munoz	2.93%	34	29		10
Sergio Garcia	2.39%	42	36		3
Talor Gooch	1.93%	52	36		3
Thomas Detry	2.12%	47	36		7
Thomas Pieters	2.07%	48	41		29
Tom McKibbin	2.47%	40	29		29
Tyrrell Hatton	3.42%	29	23		7
Victor Perez	1.01%	99	56		29
Wade Ormsby	0.37%	270	67		24
Yosuke Asaji	0.63%	159	101		40
Young-Han Song	0.62%	161	101		3

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Bryson DeChambeau	12.43%	8	10	2.70%	24	-2	Boyle Sports: 9/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Louis Oosthuizen	2.88%	35	51	0.90%	8	-2	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Charl Schwartzel	1.56%	64	101	0.60%	31	-2	Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Louis Oosthuizen	2.63%	38	46	0.50%	51	-1	William Hill: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Charl Schwartzel	2.01%	50	67	0.50%	51	-1	Skybet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Richard Bland	1.84%	54	67	0.40%	16	-1	Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Charles Howell	1.97%	51	56	0.20%	29	-1	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jason Kokrak	1.60%	63	71	0.20%	10	-1	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Martin Kaymer	0.83%	120	151	0.20%	40	-1	Skybet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.