Simulation Results: LIV Golf Dallas

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Abraham Ancer 1.02% 98 56 16
Adrian Meronk 0.83% 120 126 32
Andy Ogletree 0.19% 526 601 40
Anirban Lahiri 1.93% 52 56 0.10% 11 -0.1 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anthony Kim 0.04% 2500 1501 25
Ben Campbell 0.36% 278 201 21
Branden Grace 0.60% 167 151 23
Brendan Steele 1.01% 99 111 0.10% 25 -0.1 VBet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brooks Koepka 4.27% 23 26 0.40% QuinnBet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson DeChambeau 11.19% 8.9 6.5 9
Bubba Watson 1.24% 81 61 37
Caleb Surratt 0.66% 152 101 37
Cameron Smith 1.96% 51 34 13
Cameron Tringale 1.73% 58 56 9
Carlos Ortiz 4.37% 23 15 40
Charl Schwartzel 2.00% 50 76 0.70% 21 -0.7 VBet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Howell 1.14% 88 91 5
Chieh-Po Lee 0.07% 1429 401 33
Danny Lee 0.19% 526 501 40
David Puig 3.60% 28 34 0.70% 13 -0.7 Star Sports: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dean Burmester 1.24% 81 36 18
Dustin Johnson 2.20% 45 51 0.20% 13 -0.2 Star Sports: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Frederik Kjettrup 0.03% 3333 751
Graeme McDowell 1.31% 76 151 0.70% 35 -0.7 Skybet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Harold Varner 0.70% 143 81 5
Henrik Stenson 0.43% 233 401 0.20% 25 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ian Poulter 0.20% 500 401 51
Jason Kokrak 1.00% 100 101 40
Jinichiro Kozuma 2.52% 40 201 2.00% 2 49 BetVictor: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann 6.00% 17 8.5 23
Jon Rahm 8.37% 12 6.5 11
Jose Luis Ballester 0.27% 370 226 48
Kevin Na 0.72% 139 201 0.20% 46 -0.2 Skybet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lee Westwood 0.41% 244 251 25
Louis Oosthuizen 1.17% 85 67 2
Lucas Herbert 2.05% 49 31 40
Marc Leishman 4.00% 25 41 1.60% 25 -1.6 Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Kaymer 0.53% 189 301 0.20% 18 -0.2 BetVictor: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Jones 0.23% 435 351 46
Matthew Wolff 0.87% 115 151 0.20% QuinnBet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mito Pereira 0.21% 476 601 53
Patrick Reed 5.22% 19 21 0.50% 1 6.25 QuinnBet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Casey 1.58% 63 56 2
Peter Uihlein 0.68% 147 101 52
Phil Mickelson 2.05% 49 81 0.80% 49 -0.8 William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard Bland 2.08% 48 101 1.10% 18 -1.1 Skybet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Horsfield 0.62% 161 201 0.10% 25 -0.1 VBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Munoz 2.49% 40 26 16
Sergio Garcia 2.49% 40 34 25
Talor Gooch 1.70% 59 34 33
Thomas Pieters 1.75% 57 51 35
Tom McKibbin 0.66% 152 61 5
Tyrrell Hatton 5.72% 17 11 5
Yubin Jang 0.14% 714 501 40

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates