Simulation Results: LIV Golf Andalucia

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.00%	50	34		3
Adrian Meronk	0.93%	108	201	0.40%	52	-0.4	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anirban Lahiri	0.28%	357	151		10
Anthony Kim	0.26%	385	101		21
Ben Campbell	0.12%	833	251		31
Bjorn Hellgren	0.04%	2500	751		54
Branden Grace	2.00%	50	29		11
Brendan Steele	0.99%	101	91		31
Bryson DeChambeau	6.50%	15	10		11
Bubba Watson	0.38%	263	226		9
Byeong Hun An	0.58%	172	101		11
Caleb Surratt	0.88%	114	101		49
Cameron Smith	3.42%	29	34	0.50%	5	-0.025	BetMGM: 33/1, 5pl, 1/5
Cameron Tringale	0.93%	108	101		45
Carlos Ortiz	2.01%	50	51	0.10%	21	-0.1	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charl Schwartzel	0.76%	132	141	0.10%	31	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Howell	2.29%	44	41		19
Danny Lee	0.03%	3333	501		31
David Puig	6.30%	16	17	0.40%	5	-0.15	PaddyPower: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dean Burmester	4.16%	24	29	0.70%	27	-0.7	Ladbrokes: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doyeob Mun	0.19%	526	126		42
Dustin Johnson	3.31%	30	26		5
Elvis Smylie	0.16%	625	126		41
Graeme McDowell	0.32%	313	226		51
Harold Varner	0.58%	172	101		19
Ian Poulter	0.29%	345	251		27
Jason Kokrak	0.77%	130	176	0.20%	37	-0.2	BetVictor: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Joaquin Niemann	7.17%	14	10		24
Jon Rahm	16.14%	6.2	4.5		2
Jose Luis Ballester	1.98%	51	34		55
Laurie Canter	0.98%	102	71		37
Lee Westwood	0.39%	256	201		45
Louis Oosthuizen	1.72%	58	81	0.50%	57	-0.5	BetMGM: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Lucas Herbert	1.99%	50	34		24
Luis Masaveu	0.18%	556	251		16
Marc Leishman	3.35%	30	34	0.40%	11	-0.4	BetMGM: 33/1, 5pl, 1/5
Martin Kaymer	0.19%	526	251		24
Matthew Wolff	0.14%	714	101		37
Michael La Sasso	0.01%	10000	751		31
Miguel Tabuena	0.02%	5000	601		42
Minkyu Kim	0.01%	10000	751		50
Paul Casey	1.60%	63	126	0.80%			Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Uihlein	0.37%	270	176		31
Richard Bland	1.08%	93	126	0.30%	53	-0.3	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard T. Lee	0.22%	455	101		27
Sam Horsfield	0.04%	2500	1001		45
Scott Vincent	2.22%	45	34		15
Sebastian Munoz	1.98%	51	41		27
Sergio Garcia	2.44%	41	29		4
Talor Gooch	2.29%	44	26		16
Thomas Detry	1.46%	68	21		5
Thomas Pieters	1.66%	60	67	0.20%	40	-0.2	PaddyPower: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom McKibbin	1.23%	81	34		21
Travis Smyth	0.20%	500	126		45
Tyrrell Hatton	6.98%	14	17	1.20%	1	12	Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Victor Perez	1.09%	92	41		16
Yosuke Asaji	0.05%	2000	501		56
Young-Han Song	0.33%	303	101		42

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.27%	44	34		19
Adrian Meronk	1.53%	65	81	0.30%	45	-0.3	William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anirban Lahiri	1.00%	100	81		9
Anthony Kim	0.91%	110	61		28
Ben Campbell	0.72%	139	101		15
Bjorn Hellgren	0.41%	244	201		50
Branden Grace	2.26%	44	29		4
Brendan Steele	1.59%	63	56		28
Bryson DeChambeau	3.85%	26	15		9
Bubba Watson	1.12%	89	81		19
Byeong Hun An	1.32%	76	51		19
Caleb Surratt	1.54%	65	67		28
Cameron Smith	2.83%	35	34		4
Cameron Tringale	1.67%	60	56		28
Carlos Ortiz	2.30%	43	41		50
Charl Schwartzel	1.46%	68	81	0.20%	28	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Howell	2.37%	42	34		9
Danny Lee	0.41%	244	126		19
David Puig	3.75%	27	21		4
Dean Burmester	2.97%	34	29		45
Doyeob Mun	0.84%	119	81		9
Dustin Johnson	2.79%	36	29		50
Elvis Smylie	0.76%	132	81		40
Graeme McDowell	1.04%	96	81		15
Harold Varner	1.27%	79	51		28
Ian Poulter	0.95%	105	91		54
Jason Kokrak	1.49%	67	71	0.10%	40	-0.1	William Hill: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	3.96%	25	17		19
Jon Rahm	5.88%	17	10		28
Jose Luis Ballester	2.14%	47	34		57
Laurie Canter	1.61%	62	46		45
Lee Westwood	1.15%	87	81		54
Louis Oosthuizen	2.13%	47	51	0.20%	15	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucas Herbert	2.20%	45	34		19
Luis Masaveu	0.79%	127	101		19
Marc Leishman	2.74%	36	34		28
Martin Kaymer	0.85%	118	101		19
Matthew Wolff	0.72%	139	61		9
Michael La Sasso	0.28%	357	151		40
Miguel Tabuena	0.44%	227	151		50
Minkyu Kim	0.27%	370	151		4
Paul Casey	1.93%	52	67	0.40%			Coral: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Uihlein	1.13%	88	81		28
Richard Bland	1.76%	57	67	0.30%	45	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard T. Lee	0.98%	102	67		40
Sam Horsfield	0.50%	200	171		28
Scott Vincent	2.30%	43	29		1
Sebastian Munoz	2.22%	45	34		28
Sergio Garcia	2.46%	41	26		4
Talor Gooch	2.34%	43	26		19
Thomas Detry	1.95%	51	26		3
Thomas Pieters	2.00%	50	46		9
Tom McKibbin	1.85%	54	34		28
Travis Smyth	0.84%	119	81		40
Tyrrell Hatton	3.95%	25	23		1
Victor Perez	1.69%	59	34		15
Yosuke Asaji	0.49%	204	126		54
Young-Han Song	1.04%	96	56		45

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Tyrrell Hatton	6.98%	14	17	1.20%	1	20	Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Paul Casey	1.60%	63	126	0.80%			Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Dean Burmester	4.16%	24	29	0.70%	27	-2	Ladbrokes: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Paul Casey	1.93%	52	67	0.40%			Coral: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Richard Bland	1.76%	57	67	0.30%	45	-1	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Adrian Meronk	1.53%	65	81	0.30%	45	-1	William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Louis Oosthuizen	2.13%	47	51	0.20%	15	-1	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Charl Schwartzel	1.46%	68	81	0.20%	28	-1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jason Kokrak	1.49%	67	71	0.10%	40	-1	William Hill: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.