Simulation Results: LIV Golf Adelaide

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	3.48%	29	34	0.60%	12	-0.6	Unibet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrian Meronk	0.33%	303	121		42
Anirban Lahiri	1.49%	67	76	0.20%	50	-0.2	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anthony Kim	0.01%	10000	226		1
Ben Campbell	0.08%	1250	351		17
Ben Schmidt	0.24%	417	161		44
Bjorn Hellgren	0.09%	1111	276		54
Branden Grace	1.71%	58	46		8
Brendan Steele	0.20%	500	301		14
Bryson DeChambeau	10.91%	9.2	11	2.00%	3	1.5	Unibet: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bubba Watson	1.16%	86	76		37
Byeong Hun An	2.30%	43	34		24
Caleb Surratt	1.07%	93	51		17
Cameron Smith	1.56%	64	29		8
Cameron Tringale	2.67%	37	86	1.50%	57	-1.5	Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Ortiz	4.09%	24	23		42
Charl Schwartzel	1.39%	72	91	0.30%	17	-0.3	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Howell	1.86%	54	81	0.60%	32	-0.6	Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Danny Lee	0.06%	1667	1001		32
David Puig	6.75%	15	10		51
Dean Burmester	1.73%	58	41		6
Dustin Johnson	1.46%	68	71	0.10%	17	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Elvis Smylie	0.41%	244	31		27
Graeme McDowell	0.28%	357	276		14
Harold Varner	0.85%	118	131	0.10%	44	-0.1	Spreadex: 130/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ian Poulter	0.16%	625	501		27
Jason Kokrak	0.71%	141	161	0.10%	17	-0.1	Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	2.61%	38	19		12
Jon Rahm	15.72%	6.4	5.25		2
Jose Luis Ballester	1.09%	92	51		32
Laurie Canter	0.74%	135	67		53
Louis Oosthuizen	3.14%	32	41	0.70%	37	-0.7	Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lucas Herbert	1.14%	88	31		6
Luis Masaveu	0.08%	1250	226		44
Marc Leishman	2.23%	45	34		8
Martin Kaymer	0.11%	909	401
Matthew Wolff	0.05%	2000	401		14
Michael La Sasso	0.04%	2500	201		32
Miguel Tabuena	0.14%	714	351		44
Minkyu Kim	0.05%	2000	501		32
Ollie Schniederjans	0.00%	10000	376
Paul Casey	1.96%	51	76	0.70%	54	-0.7	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Uihlein	1.45%	69	71		3
Richard Bland	1.03%	97	161	0.40%	23	-0.4	Spreadex: 160/1, 5pl, 1/5
Richard T. Lee	0.22%	455	101		37
Sam Horsfield	0.12%	833	301		56
Scott Vincent	0.91%	110	111		24
Sebastian Munoz	4.22%	24	26	0.40%	8	-0.4	Boyle Sports: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sergio Garcia	3.27%	31	36	0.50%	37	-0.5	Betfred: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Talor Gooch	1.79%	56	36		17
Thomas Detry	1.24%	81	31		31
Thomas Pieters	2.46%	41	34		27
Tom McKibbin	1.37%	73	26		44
Tyrrell Hatton	5.13%	19	21	0.40%	3	0.8	Priced Up: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Victor Perez	0.44%	227	91		27
Yosuke Asaji	0.08%	1250	226		24
Young-Han Song	0.15%	667	226		44

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.93%	34	34		5
Adrian Meronk	1.11%	90	56		48
Anirban Lahiri	1.96%	51	46		57
Anthony Kim	0.40%	250	91		3
Ben Campbell	0.62%	161	101		9
Ben Schmidt	0.89%	112	71		19
Bjorn Hellgren	0.65%	154	91		19
Branden Grace	2.06%	49	41		26
Brendan Steele	0.85%	118	91		9
Bryson DeChambeau	5.13%	19	17		1
Bubba Watson	1.73%	58	51		33
Byeong Hun An	2.39%	42	31		39
Caleb Surratt	1.66%	60	41		19
Cameron Smith	2.05%	49	31		33
Cameron Tringale	2.49%	40	51	0.50%	48	-0.5	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
Carlos Ortiz	2.82%	35	29		48
Charl Schwartzel	1.94%	52	56	0.20%	48	-0.2	Unibet: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Howell	2.31%	43	51	0.40%	19	-0.4	Boyle Sports: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Danny Lee	0.55%	182	181		48
David Puig	3.92%	26	17		48
Dean Burmester	2.01%	50	36		9
Dustin Johnson	1.96%	51	46		3
Elvis Smylie	1.13%	88	31		26
Graeme McDowell	1.22%	82	91	0.10%	5	0.375	Boyle Sports: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Harold Varner	1.35%	74	67		33
Ian Poulter	0.78%	128	126		26
Jason Kokrak	1.48%	68	71	0.10%	9	-0.1	PaddyPower: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
Joaquin Niemann	2.31%	43	23		5
John Catlin	0.60%	167	126		9
Jon Rahm	5.96%	17	12		5
Jose Luis Ballester	1.68%	60	41		9
Laurie Canter	1.57%	64	46		33
Louis Oosthuizen	2.85%	35	41	0.40%	54	-0.4	Skybet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Lucas Herbert	1.77%	56	31		26
Luis Masaveu	0.75%	133	91		46
Marc Leishman	2.37%	42	34		1
Matthew Wolff	0.52%	192	111		19
Michael La Sasso	0.46%	217	71		39
Miguel Tabuena	0.74%	135	101		9
Minkyu Kim	0.53%	189	151		39
Paul Casey	2.08%	48	51	0.10%	19	-0.1	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
Peter Uihlein	1.78%	56	46		9
Richard Bland	1.70%	59	71	0.30%	33	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Richard T. Lee	0.85%	118	56		39
Sam Horsfield	0.81%	123	101		54
Scott Vincent	1.58%	63	67	0.10%	39	-0.1	Skybet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
Sebastian Munoz	3.16%	32	31		9
Sergio Garcia	2.77%	36	34		26
Talor Gooch	2.05%	49	36		33
Thomas Detry	1.83%	55	34		26
Thomas Pieters	2.41%	41	34		39
Tom McKibbin	1.87%	53	31		46
Tyrrell Hatton	3.74%	27	26		9
Victor Perez	1.18%	85	56		19
Wade Ormsby	0.33%	303	101		39
Yosuke Asaji	0.56%	179	101		26
Young-Han Song	0.80%	125	91		54

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Bryson DeChambeau	10.91%	9.2	11	2.00%	3	1.5	Unibet: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Cameron Tringale	2.67%	37	86	1.50%	57	-2	Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Louis Oosthuizen	3.14%	32	41	0.70%	37	-2	Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Cameron Tringale	2.49%	40	51	0.50%	48	-1	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Louis Oosthuizen	2.85%	35	41	0.40%	54	-1	Skybet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Charles Howell	2.31%	43	51	0.40%	19	-1	Boyle Sports: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Richard Bland	1.70%	59	71	0.30%	39		Boyle Sports: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Charl Schwartzel	1.94%	52	56	0.20%	48		Unibet: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Paul Casey	2.08%	48	51	0.10%	39		Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.