Simulation Results: Tenerife Women's Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Agathe Sauzon 0.33% 303 201 30
Alessandra Fanali 1.43% 70 46 8
Alessia Nobilio 0.43% 233 176 92
Alexandra Swayne 0.59% 169 226 0.10% 73 -0.1 Unibet: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alice Hewson 0.82% 122 81 26
Amaia Latorre 0.45% 222 111 52
Amelia Garvey 1.23% 81 91 0.10% 8 -0.1 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ana Pelaez Trivino 0.77% 130 46 3
Anna Foster 2.96% 34 251 2.60% 109 -2.6 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anna Huang 1.66% 60 91 0.60% 92 -0.6 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anna Magnusson 0.28% 357 276 92
Anna Zanusso 0.80% 125 151 0.10% 20 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Annabel Wilson 0.57% 175 176 103
Annabell Fuller 1.12% 89 46 30
Anne-Lise Caudal 0.01% 10000 1501 103
April Angurasaranee 1.24% 81 51 62
Ariane Klotz 0.02% 5000 1251 8
Aunchisa Utama 0.93% 108 126 0.10% 55 -0.1 Unibet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Avani Prashanth 1.33% 75 126 0.50% 20 -0.5 Sporting Index: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billie-Jo Smith 0.03% 3333 751 52
Blanca Fernandez 0.24% 417 141 30
Brianna Navarrosa 2.59% 39 41 0.20% 40 -0.2 Unibet: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Camille Chevalier 0.05% 2000 1001 30
Canice Screene 0.15% 667 351 119
Cara Gainer 4.19% 24 26 0.40% 40 -0.4 Unibet: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Carly Booth 0.00% 10000 601
Carmen Alonso 0.02% 5000 1001 103
Carolin Kauffmann 0.09% 1111 401 30
Casandra Alexander 4.37% 23 17 31
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen 0.09% 1111 1001 103
Celina Sattelkau 0.23% 435 451 62
Celine Herbin 0.42% 238 201 62
Charlotte Laffar 0.00% 10000 601 73
Chiara Tamburlini 11.37% 8.8 9 0.30% 20 -0.3 Bet365: 8/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chloe Williams 1.07% 93 81 30
Clara Moyano Reigosa 0.00% 10000 1001 60
Danielle Du Toit 0.01% 10000 326 92
Darcey Harry 1.37% 73 61 49
Diksha Dagar 1.77% 56 34 14
Dorota Zalewska 0.09% 1111 601 58
Dorthea Forbrigd 1.10% 91 76 14
Ela Anacona 0.00% 10000 1001 123
Eleanor Givens 0.12% 833 601 14
Elena Moosmann 0.13% 769 326 109
Ellie Gower 0.01% 10000 751 52
Emma Cabrera Bello 0.01% 10000 1501 92
Emma Grechi 0.26% 385 276 46
Emma Spitz 4.24% 24 21 3
Esme Hamilton 0.01% 10000 601 83
Fernanda Lira 0.12% 833 501 92
Florentyna Parker 0.06% 1667 1001 73
Georgia Oboh 0.02% 5000 2001 83
Ginnie Ding 0.52% 192 126 40
Grace Charis 0.00% 10000 1001 130
Gudrun Bjorgvinsdottir 0.03% 3333 601 83
Hannah Burke 0.46% 217 226 55
Hannah Screen 3.52% 28 41 1.10% 8 -1.1 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harang Lee 0.03% 3333 751 73
Helen Briem 5.23% 19 8 2
Helen Tamy Kreuzer 0.05% 2000 601 83
Hitaashee Bakshi 1.28% 78 126 0.50% 62 -0.5 Betfair: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jess Baker 0.05% 2000 601 73
Johanna Wrigley 0.63% 159 81 83
Kaiyuree Moodley 0.01% 10000 401 123
Kajsa Arwefjall 1.67% 60 36 46
Katherine Hollern 0.00% 10000 1001 73
Kelsey Bennett 1.11% 90 41 109
Kirsten Rudgeley 0.89% 112 91 73
Kristyna Napoleaova 0.04% 2500 601 46
Kylie Henry 0.08% 1250 601 73
Laura Beveridge 0.06% 1667 401 49
Lauren Taylor 0.00% 10000 1501 109
Lauren Walsh 2.10% 48 26 14
Lianna Bailey 0.01% 10000 1001 109
Lily May Humphreys 0.06% 1667 601 83
Lisa Pettersson 0.29% 345 251 14
Liz Young 0.33% 303 226 26
Lorna Mcclymont 0.16% 625 226 8
Louise Stahle 0.00% 10000 1501 92
Luna Sobron Galmes 2.26% 44 21 30
Lydia Hall 0.63% 159 151 26
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard 0.36% 278 301 8
Madelene Stavnar 0.06% 1667 301 59
Magdalena Simmermacher 0.00% 10000 1501 119
Maha Haddioui 0.99% 101 126 0.20% 83 -0.2 Unibet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maria Hernandez 0.33% 303 161 62
Marianne Skarpnord 0.27% 370 501 0.10% 92 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marina Escobar Domingo 0.06% 1667 451 103
Marta Martin 0.17% 588 276 20
Marta Sanz Barrio 0.05% 2000 451 62
Marta Spiazzi 0.00% 10000 1251 127
Mayka Hoogeboom 0.01% 10000 751 83
Megan Dennis 0.00% 10000 1251 83
Meghan MacLaren 0.01% 10000 1001 129
Michele Thomson 0.00% 10000 1501 109
Mimi Rhodes 3.48% 29 13 20
Mireia Prat 0.10% 1000 451 117
Moa Folke 1.41% 71 46 109
Momoka Kobori 1.27% 79 51 30
Nastasia Nadaud 3.44% 29 26 30
Natacha Host Husted 0.09% 1111 451 92
Natasha Fear 0.00% 10000 1501 123
Nobuhle Dlamini 0.01% 10000 501 123
Noora Komulainen 0.82% 122 151 0.20% 3 3.65 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nuria Iturrioz 0.98% 102 51 103
Pasqualle Coffa 0.00% 10000 2501 127
Patricia Isabel Schmidt 0.82% 122 101 6
Patricie Mackova 0.13% 769 226 40
Paz Marfa Sans 0.07% 1429 351 109
Remi Bacardi 0.00% 10000 351 62
Romy Meekers 0.05% 2000 501 19
Sanna Nuutinen 0.59% 169 301 0.30% 117 -0.3 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sara Byrne 0.41% 244 151 62
Sara Kouskova 2.70% 37 29 1
Sarah Schober 0.08% 1250 501 131
Shannon Tan 4.98% 20 19 6
Smilla Tarning Soenderby 0.36% 278 131 29
Sneha Singh 0.00% 10000 751 119
Sofia Barroso Sa 0.00% 10000 276 30
Sofie Bringner 0.31% 323 301 92
Sofie Kibsgaard 0.54% 185 111 25
Stacy Lee Bregman 0.05% 2000 751 73
Teresa Toscano 1.17% 85 111 0.30% 92 -0.3 Betfair: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tereza Melecka 0.02% 5000 1001 40
Thalia Martin 0.09% 1111 326 62
Tiia Koivisto 0.02% 5000 1001 55
Tina Mazarino 0.31% 323 276 40
Tvesa Malik 0.06% 1667 601 62
Ursula Wikstrom 0.66% 152 176 0.10% 73 -0.1 Betway: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vanessa Bouvet 0.01% 10000 1501 119
Verena Gimmy 0.00% 10000 1501 62
Wenyung Keh 0.01% 10000 1001 49

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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