Simulation Results: South African Women's Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Agathe Laisne 1.49% 67 111 0.60% 31 -0.6 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Agathe Sauzon 0.19% 526 276 50
Alessandra Fanali 1.30% 77 41 11
Alessia Nobilio 0.53% 189 201 56
Alexandra Forsterling 0.72% 139 61 87
Alexandra Swayne 0.39% 256 251 20
Alice Hewson 1.74% 57 51 114
Aline Krauter 2.62% 38 34 20
Amelia Garvey 0.50% 200 126 20
Amy Taylor 0.63% 159 276 0.30% 71 -0.3 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ana Dawson 0.00% 10000 1501 120
Ana Pelaez Trivino 1.31% 76 51 71
Anna Foster 1.81% 55 176 1.20% 38 -1.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anna Magnusson 0.40% 250 226 58
Anna Zanusso 1.04% 96 276 0.70% 20 -0.7 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Annabel Dimmock 0.35% 286 67 132
Annabel Wilson 0.14% 714 751 20
Annabell Fuller 1.08% 93 81 58
Anne-Charlotte Mora 0.07% 1429 326 87
Anne-Lise Caudal 0.04% 2500 1251 114
April Angurasaranee 0.32% 313 176 79
Ariane Klotz 0.10% 1000 501 64
Aunchisa Utama 0.30% 333 201 87
Avani Prashanth 0.80% 125 121 50
Ayako Uehara 0.48% 208 301 0.10% 31 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Billie-Jo Smith 0.01% 10000 1001 71
Blanca Fernandez 1.51% 66 81 0.30% 20 -0.3 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bonita Bredenhann 0.01% 10000 2001 16
Brittney-Fay Berger 0.00% 10000 2501 131
Bronte Law 2.06% 49 29 3
Camille Chevalier 0.05% 2000 1001 111
Cara Gainer 1.88% 53 41 20
Cara Gorlei 0.00% 10000 601 125
Carmen Alonso 0.00% 10000 1001 87
Carolin Kauffmann 0.25% 400 351 50
Casandra Alexander 2.73% 37 15 2
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen 0.21% 476 401 87
Celine Herbin 0.77% 130 126 45
Chiara Noja 0.09% 1111 251 79
Chiara Tamburlini 7.33% 14 12 6
Chloe Williams 0.99% 101 101 9
Daniela Darquea 0.89% 112 81 31
Danielle Du Toit 0.02% 5000 226 42
Darcey Harry 2.85% 35 91 1.80% 11 -1.8 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Demi Flanagan 0.00% 10000 79
Diksha Dagar 1.60% 63 34 9
Dorthea Forbrigd 1.65% 61 121 0.80% 16 -0.8 Spreadex: 120/1, 6pl, 1/5
Eleanor Givens 0.15% 667 601 110
Elena Moosmann 0.16% 625 601 67
Ellinor Sudow 0.05% 2000 1501 87
Emie Peronnin 0.01% 10000 501 62
Emily Penttila 0.02% 5000 1501 67
Emma Spitz 2.59% 39 36 16
Fernanda Lira 0.04% 2500 401 87
Florentyna Parker 0.06% 1667 501 71
Gabrielle Venter 0.05% 2000 276 62
Gia Raad 0.00% 10000 501 50
Ginnie Ding 0.09% 1111 751 6
Hannah Burke 0.20% 500 301 79
Hannah Screen 0.77% 130 101 79
Harang Lee 0.02% 5000 1001 106
Hayley Davis 0.07% 1429 351 79
Helen Briem 9.15% 11 7.5 56
Helen Tamy Kreuzer 0.15% 667 601 58
Ivanna Samu 0.01% 10000 2501 120
Jane Turner 0.00% 10000 2501 87
Johanna Wrigley 0.16% 625 126 87
Kaiyuree Moodley 0.06% 1667 151 69
Kajsa Arwefjall 3.56% 28 29 0.10% 20 -0.1 Unibet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kelsey Bennett 1.53% 65 41 3
Kelsey Nicholas 0.00% 10000 1501 38
Kesha Louw 0.00% 10000 351 111
Kiera Floyd 1.02% 98 46 5
Kim Metraux 0.40% 250 176 87
Klara Davidson Spilkova 0.94% 106 67 106
Kristyna Napoleaova 0.04% 2500 601 125
Kylie Henry 0.31% 323 251 71
Laura Fuenfstueck 0.27% 370 226 6
Lauren Taylor 0.02% 5000 2001 114
Lauren Walsh 3.40% 29 34 0.50% 38 -0.5 Spreadex: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lee-Anne Pace 1.03% 97 34 31
Lily May Humphreys 0.01% 10000 601 87
Lisa Coetzer 0.00% 10000 351 114
Lisa Pettersson 0.23% 435 201 79
Liz Young 0.63% 159 126 31
Lora Assad 0.01% 10000 1501 128
Lucie Malchirand 0.02% 5000 751 70
Luna Sobron Galmes 0.44% 227 91 31
Lydia Hall 0.27% 370 226 87
Magdalena Simmermacher 0.01% 10000 1001 87
Maha Haddioui 0.12% 833 501 38
Maiken Bing Paulsen 0.00% 10000 1001 71
Maria Hernandez 0.43% 233 201 20
Marianne Skarpnord 0.16% 625 801 45
Marta Martin 0.54% 185 151 45
Megan Dennis 0.01% 10000 601 87
Mimi Rhodes 7.86% 13 17 2.10% Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Moa Folke 2.56% 39 41 0.10% 71 -0.1 William Hill: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Momoka Kobori 0.73% 137 91 45
Nadia Van Der Westhuizen 0.04% 2500 501 42
Nastasia Nadaud 2.07% 48 36 42
Natacha Host Husted 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 120 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nina Pegova 0.00% 10000 2001 87
Nobuhle Dlamini 0.16% 625 251 66
Nuria Iturrioz 0.66% 152 76 50
Olivia Mehaffey 0.01% 10000 401 129
Pasqualle Coffa 0.00% 10000 1501 114
Patricia Isabel Schmidt 0.11% 909 501 45
Perrine Delacour 2.75% 36 67 1.30% 1 51.48 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Pia Babnik 0.93% 108 41 111
Pranavi Urs 1.14% 88 76 11
Rhea Saravanan 0.00% 10000 1501 106
Romy Meekers 0.02% 5000 751 120
Rosie Davies 0.05% 2000 601 50
Sanna Nuutinen 0.14% 714 751 87
Sara Byrne 1.07% 93 81 87
Sara Kouskova 2.15% 47 41 11
Sarah Schober 0.49% 204 161 65
Shannon Tan 2.06% 49 29 87
Smilla Tarning Soenderby 0.50% 200 126 11
Sofie Bringner 0.12% 833 326 31
Stacy Lee Bregman 0.02% 5000 751 71
Tandi McCallum 0.02% 5000 2001 106
Teresa Toscano 0.61% 164 141 20
Tereza Kozeluhova 0.00% 10000 751 120
Tereza Melecka 0.02% 5000 276 87
Thalia Martin 0.06% 1667 301 79
Tina Mazarino 0.11% 909 401 20
Trichat Cheenglab 0.76% 132 91 114
Tvesa Malik 0.02% 5000 601 58
Vanessa Bouvet 0.01% 10000 1501 125
Verena Gimmy 0.06% 1667 601 129

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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