Simulation Results: Women's New South Wales Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abbie Teasdale	0.02%	5000	251		97
Agathe Laisne	0.86%	116	67		1
Agathe Sauzon	0.12%	833	326		76
Aine Donegan	0.14%	714	111		16
Alessandra Fanali	3.81%	26	23		16
Alessia Nobilio	0.54%	185	131		66
Alexandra Forsterling	1.04%	96	56		5
Alexandra Swayne	0.17%	588	451		56
Alice Hewson	2.05%	49	26		76
Amalie Leth-Nissen	0.00%	10000	301		132
Amelia Garvey	3.27%	31	26		8
Amelia Harris	0.00%	10000	67		8
Amelia Mehmet Grohn	0.10%	1000	301		66
Amy Lee	0.25%	400	226		88
Amy Taylor	0.13%	769	276		97
Amy Walsh	0.01%	10000	751		119
Ana Belac	2.03%	49	51	0.10%	8	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ana Dawson	0.01%	10000	181		62
Andrea Grimberg Lignell	0.13%	769	81		76
Ann Jang	0.00%	10000			119
Anna Foster	1.55%	65	126	0.80%	37	-0.8	Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Anna Huang	2.26%	44	26		8
Anna Morgan	0.00%	10000	46		37
Anna Zanusso	0.52%	192	276	0.20%	33	-0.2	Spreadex: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Annabell Fuller	0.16%	625	301		49
Annika Borrelli	0.09%	1111	451		66
Annika Rathbone	0.04%	2500	751		119
April Angurasaranee	1.24%	81	61		2
Ariane Klotz	0.04%	2500	301		125
Arina Hayashi	0.00%	10000	131		8
Ashley Lau	1.48%	68	46		76
Aunchisa Utama	0.66%	152	226	0.20%	51	-0.2	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Avani Prashanth	1.34%	75	91	0.20%	125	-0.2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ayako Uehara	0.42%	238	351	0.10%	66	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ayane Morita	0.23%	435	201		76
Belinda Ji	0.02%	5000	401		66
Blanca Fernandez	1.01%	99	67		76
Brianna Navarrosa	1.23%	81	81		26
Caitlin Peirce	0.06%	1667	34		20
Caitlyn Macnab	0.00%	10000	71		26
Caley McGinty	3.70%	27	41	1.30%	5	1.0833333333333	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Camilla Kim	0.00%	10000	126		37
Camille Chevalier	1.18%	85	151	0.50%	97	-0.5	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cara Gainer	3.46%	29	29		45
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.10%	1000	451		76
Chaeree Lim	0.00%	10000	226		131
Charlotte Heath	0.17%	588	81		4
Chloe Williams	0.66%	152	126		20
Claire Shin	0.85%	118	276	0.50%	51	-0.5	PaddyPower: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Corinne Viden	0.02%	5000	141		37
Daniela Darquea	1.80%	56	126	1.00%	16	-1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danni Vasquez	0.31%	323	351		116
Darcey Harry	3.16%	32	34	0.20%	97	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Diksha Dagar	1.03%	97	126	0.20%	20	-0.2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dorota Zalewska	0.07%	1429	201		61
Ella Scaysbrook	0.05%	2000	51		37
Elmay Viking	0.00%	10000	401		128
Emma Falcher	0.00%	10000	251		20
Emma Grechi	0.30%	333	301		112
Emma Spitz	5.73%	17	26	2.00%	26	-2	Boyle Sports: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Esme Hamilton	0.54%	185	126		66
Fernanda Lira	0.16%	625	121		76
Gabriella Cowley	0.27%	370	201		119
Gemma Clews	0.15%	667	46		56
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh	0.02%	5000	1001		128
Ginnie Ding	0.10%	1000	551		62
Godiva Kim	0.01%	10000	751		76
Hanee Song	0.03%	3333	451		56
Hannah Darling	0.02%	5000	111		119
Hannah Gregg	0.00%	10000	1001		66
Hannah Reeves	0.02%	5000	36		8
Hannah Screen	1.02%	98	151	0.40%	33	-0.4	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Harang Lee	0.04%	2500	451		33
Hazuki Kimura	0.02%	5000	126		76
Hitaashee Bakshi	0.46%	217	161		88
Ikeba Hinata	3.65%	27	251	3.30%	116	-3.3	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jessica Bang	0.00%	10000	81		88
Jordan O'Brien	0.15%	667	751		56
Justice Bosio	0.15%	667	101		31
Kajsa Arwefjall	4.22%	24	19		20
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.06%	1667	101		66
Kelsey Bennett	5.36%	19	12		8
Kelsey Macdonald	0.04%	2500	351		66
Kirsten Rudgeley	3.58%	28	13		88
Klara Davidson Spilkova	1.12%	89	101	0.10%	97	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kotono Fukaya	0.01%	10000	251		88
Kristalle Blum	0.01%	10000	351		106
Lara Thomsen	0.20%	500	111		119
Leonie Harm	2.79%	36	34		37
Lily May Humphreys	0.09%	1111	326		97
Lisa Pettersson	1.05%	95	81		88
Liyana Azizan Durisic	0.36%	278	301		51
Luca Thompson	0.00%	10000	251		56
Luna Sobron Galmes	1.38%	72	56		112
Lydia Hall	1.41%	71	41		49
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	1.12%	89	71		88
Maha Haddioui	0.88%	114	201	0.40%	26	-0.4	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marta Martin	0.43%	233	151		106
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.10%	1000	451		65
Matilde Partele	0.00%	10000	401		66
Meghan MacLaren	0.11%	909	301		37
Mia Okumura	0.00%	10000	401		97
Mimi Thomsen	0.00%	10000	226		112
Mina Yoon	2.32%	43	126	1.50%	88	-1.5	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Momoka Kobori	0.32%	313	226		45
Morgane Metraux	1.82%	55	101	0.80%	31	-0.8	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Natsumi Hayakawa	0.00%	10000	351		112
Nayeon Eum	0.01%	10000	751		51
Noora Komulainen	0.46%	217	201		76
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.64%	156	151		45
Patricie Mackova	0.25%	400	151		8
Pia Babnik	0.90%	111	67		26
Pranavi Urs	1.36%	74	81	0.10%	106	-0.1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rachel Lee	0.12%	833	126		116
Rebekah Blackwell-Chin	0.00%	10000	201		106
Rhianna Lewis	0.51%	196	1001	0.40%	97	-0.4	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Roberta Liti	1.64%	61	101	0.70%	33	-0.7	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sara Kouskova	2.03%	49	41		51
Sarah Kemp	1.70%	59	76	0.40%	5	0.91666666666667	Spreadex: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sasikarn Somboonsup	0.00%	10000	601		62
Siyi Keh	0.00%	10000	801		106
Sofie Kibsgaard Nielsen	0.37%	270	111		16
Soo Jin Lee	0.01%	10000	751		127
Soomin Oh	2.37%	42	41		2
Stefanie Hall	0.00%	10000	501		88
Steffi Vogel	0.20%	500	601		76
Stephanie Bunque	0.04%	2500	351		20
Su Oh	0.10%	1000	141		128
Trichat Cheenglab	2.06%	49	26		97
Vanessa Knecht	0.00%	10000	1001		106
Wenyung Keh	0.01%	10000	801		45
Whitney Hillier	0.04%	2500	301		37

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abbie Teasdale	0.18%	556	126		97
Agathe Laisne	1.30%	77	61		36
Agathe Sauzon	0.60%	167	151		64
Aine Donegan	0.35%	286	86		5
Alessandra Fanali	2.75%	36	31		36
Alessia Nobilio	1.14%	88	81		83
Alexandra Forsterling	1.44%	69	56		8
Alexandra Swayne	0.38%	263	151		5
Alice Hewson	1.94%	52	36		103
Amalie Leth-Nissen	0.12%	833	151		122
Amelia Garvey	1.49%	67	36		8
Amelia Harris	0.02%	5000	61		23
Amelia Mehmet Grohn	0.27%	370	151		48
Amy Lee	0.44%	227	111		97
Amy Taylor	0.62%	161	126		116
Amy Walsh	0.10%	1000	301		122
Ana Belac	1.21%	83	51		48
Ana Dawson	0.29%	345	111		36
Andrea Grimberg Lignell	0.61%	164	81		83
Ann Jang	0.02%	5000	301		64
Anna Foster	1.05%	95	81		36
Anna Huang	2.04%	49	36		48
Anna Morgan	0.06%	1667	51		8
Anna Zanusso	1.06%	94	111	0.20%	48	-0.2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Annabell Fuller	0.62%	161	141		23
Annika Borrelli	0.31%	323	151		36
Annika Rathbone	0.37%	270	251		122
April Angurasaranee	0.92%	109	41		17
Ariane Klotz	0.38%	263	141		132
Arina Hayashi	0.04%	2500	81		8
Ashley Lau	1.72%	58	51		64
Aunchisa Utama	0.67%	149	111		17
Avani Prashanth	1.63%	61	81	0.40%	126	-0.4	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ayako Uehara	1.07%	93	151	0.40%	83	-0.4	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ayane Morita	0.42%	238	111		83
Belinda Ji	0.13%	769	176		36
Blanca Fernandez	1.45%	69	67		83
Brianna Navarrosa	0.96%	104	81		8
Caitlin Peirce	0.24%	417	46		23
Caitlyn Macnab	0.02%	5000	67		5
Caley McGinty	2.73%	37	36		64
Camilla Kim	0.05%	2000	111		64
Camille Chevalier	0.93%	108	91		23
Cara Gainer	1.60%	63	36		83
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.53%	189	151		64
Chaeree Lim	0.05%	2000	151		126
Charlotte Heath	0.69%	145	71		17
Chloe Williams	0.68%	147	81		36
Claire Shin	0.79%	127	111		64
Corinne Viden	0.33%	303	111		48
Daniela Darquea	1.13%	88	81		8
Danni Vasquez	0.80%	125	151	0.10%	103	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darcey Harry	2.31%	43	36		83
Diksha Dagar	1.38%	72	81	0.10%	103	-0.1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dorota Zalewska	0.31%	323	111		64
Ella Scaysbrook	0.23%	435	51		17
Elmay Viking	0.05%	2000	176		103
Emma Falcher	0.20%	500	141		64
Emma Grechi	0.78%	128	141	0.10%	64	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emma Spitz	3.36%	30	36	0.60%	48	-0.6	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Esme Hamilton	1.04%	96	81		83
Fernanda Lira	0.35%	286	81		36
Gabriella Cowley	0.82%	122	111		116
Gemma Clews	0.63%	159	56		97
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh	0.16%	625	301		122
Ginnie Ding	0.26%	385	201		23
Godiva Kim	0.30%	333	251		36
Hanee Song	0.16%	625	226		23
Hannah Darling	0.33%	303	81		131
Hannah Gregg	0.07%	1429	401		36
Hannah Reeves	0.12%	833	46		1
Hannah Screen	1.45%	69	91	0.40%	36	-0.4	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harang Lee	0.15%	667	151		36
Hazuki Kimura	0.28%	357	81		64
Hitaashee Bakshi	0.99%	101	111	0.10%	48	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ikeba Hinata	2.66%	38	101	1.70%	126	-1.7	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jessica Bang	0.05%	2000	71		64
Jordan O'Brien	0.36%	278	301		23
Justice Bosio	0.37%	270	91		17
Kajsa Arwefjall	2.87%	35	26		23
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.38%	263	81		83
Kelsey Bennett	2.01%	50	23		1
Kelsey Macdonald	0.20%	500	151		83
Kirsten Rudgeley	1.57%	64	23		126
Klara Davidson Spilkova	0.89%	112	81		23
Kotono Fukaya	0.10%	1000	126		23
Kristalle Blum	0.16%	625	151		103
Lara Thomsen	0.72%	139	141		83
Leonie Harm	1.33%	75	41		48
Lily May Humphreys	0.51%	196	141		83
Lisa Pettersson	1.43%	70	81	0.20%	103	-0.2	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Liyana Azizan Durisic	0.53%	189	141		17
Luca Thompson	0.05%	2000	126		3
Luna Sobron Galmes	1.70%	59	51		103
Lydia Hall	0.96%	104	51		48
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	1.42%	70	67		116
Maha Haddioui	1.37%	73	111	0.50%	48	-0.5	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marta Martin	1.02%	98	91		103
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.28%	357	151		48
Matilde Partele	0.02%	5000	226		23
Meghan MacLaren	0.31%	323	141		64
Mia Okumura	0.02%	5000			48
Mimi Thomsen	0.09%	1111	151		83
Mina Yoon	2.14%	47	81	0.90%	97	-0.9	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Momoka Kobori	0.47%	213	111		48
Morgane Metraux	1.12%	89	81		3
Natsumi Hayakawa	0.04%	2500	201		97
Nayeon Eum	0.11%	909	351		64
Noora Komulainen	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	64	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.68%	147	81		48
Patricie Mackova	0.41%	244	91		23
Pia Babnik	0.81%	123	61		8
Pranavi Urs	1.64%	61	81	0.40%	64	-0.4	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rachel Lee	0.59%	169	91		64
Rebekah Blackwell-Chin	0.04%	2500	151		116
Rhianna Lewis	1.07%	93	301	0.70%	103	-0.7	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Roberta Liti	1.74%	57	81	0.50%	48	-0.5	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sara Kouskova	1.18%	85	41		83
Sarah Kemp	1.06%	94	81		8
Sasikarn Somboonsup	0.10%	1000	201		97
Siyi Keh	0.05%	2000	351		103
Sofie Kibsgaard Nielsen	0.90%	111	86		8
Soo Jin Lee	0.24%	417	251		103
Soomin Oh	1.27%	79	36		23
Stefanie Hall	0.02%	5000	226		64
Steffi Vogel	0.39%	256	226		103
Stephanie Bunque	0.18%	556	151		48
Su Oh	0.27%	370	91		116
Trichat Cheenglab	2.04%	49	36		103
Vanessa Knecht	0.11%	909	351		126
Wenyung Keh	0.22%	455	301		116
Whitney Hillier	0.37%	270	126		64

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Ikeba Hinata	3.65%	27	251	3.30%	116	-2	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Emma Spitz	5.73%	17	26	2.00%	26	-2	Boyle Sports: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Mina Yoon	2.32%	43	126	1.50%	88	-2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ikeba Hinata	2.66%	38	101	1.70%	126	-1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Mina Yoon	2.14%	47	81	0.90%	97	-1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Rhianna Lewis	1.07%	93	301	0.70%	103	-1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Emma Spitz	3.36%	30	36	0.60%	83	-1	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Roberta Liti	1.74%	57	81	0.50%	8	-1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Maha Haddioui	1.37%	73	111	0.50%	23	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.