Simulation Results: MCB Ladies Classic - Mauritius

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Agathe Laisne	4.47%	22	15		5
Agathe Sauzon	0.20%	500	501		61
Aine Donegan	0.32%	313	126		50
Alessandra Fanali	3.10%	32	19		50
Alessia Nobilio	0.69%	145	151		32
Alexandra Forsterling	4.00%	25	17		5
Alexandra Swayne	0.16%	625	401		61
Alice Hewson	2.82%	35	26		5
Amaia Latorre	0.52%	192	251	0.10%	50	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amalie Leth-Nissen	0.00%	10000	1251		119
Amelia Garvey	3.72%	27	19		21
Amy Lee	1.02%	98	301	0.70%	38	-0.7	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amy Taylor	0.28%	357	501	0.10%	76	-0.1	Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ana Dawson	0.10%	1000	351		108
Ana Pelaez Trivino	1.43%	70	41		17
Andrea Grimberg Lignell	0.04%	2500	601		115
Anna Foster	1.29%	78	91	0.20%	21	-0.2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anna Morgan	2.88%	35	29		38
Anna Zanusso	1.62%	62	67	0.10%	4	0.775	QuinnBet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Annabel Wilson	0.30%	333	301		104
Annabell Fuller	1.92%	52	41		66
Anne-Charlotte Mora	0.14%	714	351		104
Anne-Lise Caudal	0.01%	10000	751		88
April Angurasaranee	0.41%	244	81		38
Ariane Klotz	0.16%	625	251		110
Aunchisa Utama	0.75%	133	251	0.40%	101	-0.4	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ayako Uehara	0.35%	286	751	0.20%	38	-0.2	Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blanca Fernandez	0.65%	154	101		76
Bobbi Brown	0.02%	5000	176		112
Brianna Navarrosa	3.25%	31	23		12
Caitlyn Macnab	0.45%	222	111		21
Camille Chevalier	1.02%	98	86		21
Cara Gainer	4.24%	24	17		58
Cara Gorlei	0.07%	1429	501		12
Carolin Kauffmann	0.11%	909	501		76
Casandra Alexander	6.74%	15	6.5		2
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.20%	500	501		88
Celina Sattelkau	1.21%	83	41		5
Charlotte Heath	0.63%	159	141		61
Charlotte Liautier	0.05%	2000	301		38
Chloe Williams	1.57%	64	61		66
Corinne Viden	0.51%	196	141		27
Danielle Du Toit	0.09%	1111	151		71
Diksha Dagar	1.95%	51	34		21
Dorota Zalewska	0.17%	588	301		38
Dorthea Forbrigd	1.01%	99	86		38
Eleanor Givens	0.44%	227	351	0.20%	58	-0.2	Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ellen Hume	0.01%	10000	601		17
Emie Peronnin	0.14%	714	501		117
Emma Falcher	0.61%	164	151		50
Emma Grechi	0.33%	303	401	0.10%	76	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emma Spitz	2.98%	34	41	0.60%	88	-0.6	William Hill: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Esme Hamilton	1.58%	63	51		21
Fernanda Lira	0.24%	417	251		66
Gabriella Cowley	0.11%	909	501		104
Gabrielle Venter	0.21%	476	81		32
Ginger Delacretaz	0.00%	10000			120
Gudrun Bjorgvinsdottir	0.10%	1000	351		110
Hannah Burke	0.15%	667	601		71
Hannah Darling	0.02%	5000	501		118
Harang Lee	0.13%	769	501		66
Hester Sicking	0.00%	10000	1001		113
Hitaashee Bakshi	0.26%	385	251		58
Jana Melichova	0.53%	189	151		32
Jess Baker	0.12%	833	401		38
Justice Bosio	0.36%	278	161		38
Kaiyuree Moodley	0.01%	10000	601		115
Kajsa Arwefjall	4.03%	25	19		2
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.24%	417	251		76
Kiera Floyd	0.11%	909	161		97
Kim Metraux	0.10%	1000	501		11
Kirsten Rudgeley	3.11%	32	19		5
Klara Davidson Spilkova	0.58%	172	301	0.20%	88	-0.2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kristyna Napoleaova	0.14%	714	351		12
Laura Beveridge	0.25%	400	226		101
Lee-Anne Pace	0.89%	112	86		50
Lianna Bailey	0.04%	2500	501		12
Lily May Humphreys	0.32%	313	276		27
Lisa Pettersson	2.37%	42	81	1.10%	17	-1.1	William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lois Lau	0.27%	370	226		50
Lorna Mcclymont	0.09%	1111	601		88
Louise Rydqvist	0.03%	3333	601		27
Luca Thompson	0.04%	2500	751		88
Lucie Malchirand	0.01%	10000	501		84
Lucie Vachova	0.13%	769	501		66
Luna Sobron Galmes	1.78%	56	67	0.30%	61	-0.3	William Hill: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	2.22%	45	67	0.70%	50	-0.7	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Madelene Stavnar	0.40%	250	226		88
Maha Haddioui	1.36%	74	111	0.50%	50	-0.5	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marianne Skarpnord	0.07%	1429	601		12
Marta Martin	0.14%	714	501		104
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.09%	1111	601		88
Matilde Partele	0.00%	10000	1001		76
Meghan MacLaren	0.91%	110	46		88
Moa Folke	0.66%	152	101		17
Momoka Kobori	1.02%	98	81		38
Nadia Van Der Westhuizen	0.04%	2500	151		38
Nobuhle Dlamini	0.17%	588	251		61
Olivia Mehaffey	0.19%	526	401		84
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	1.00%	100	101		76
Patricie Mackova	0.26%	385	251		76
Pia Babnik	3.16%	32	15		27
Roberta Liti	2.09%	48	81	0.90%	27	-0.9	William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Romy Meekers	0.13%	769	601		32
Sara Kouskova	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	97	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Smilla Tarning Soenderby	0.59%	169	111		1
Sofie Bringner	0.05%	2000	751		84
Sofie Kibsgaard Nielsen	1.47%	68	51		97
Stacy Bregman	0.03%	3333	1001		97
Symone Henriques	0.00%	10000	1001		71
Tereza Melecka	0.05%	2000	601		10
Thalia Martin	0.20%	500	351		32
Tiffany Arafi	0.05%	2000	601		84
Tina Mazarino	0.64%	156	301	0.30%	71	-0.3	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trichat Cheenglab	1.56%	64	36		108
Tvesa Malik	0.07%	1429	751		38
Ursula Wikstrom	0.37%	270	226		71
Vanessa Bouvet	0.01%	10000	1001		101
Vanessa Knecht	0.40%	250	141		32
Vani Kapoor	0.12%	833	501		113

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Lisa Pettersson	2.37%	42	81	1.10%	17	-2	William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Roberta Liti	2.09%	48	81	0.90%	27	-2	William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	2.22%	45	67	0.70%	50	-2	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.