Simulation Results: Lalla Meryem Cup

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Agathe Laisne	3.19%	31	21		17
Agathe Sauzon	0.48%	208	276	0.10%	124	-0.1	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aine Donegan	0.22%	455	251		52
Alessandra Fanali	1.31%	76	41		69
Alessia Nobilio	0.34%	294	226		52
Alexandra Forsterling	3.24%	31	26		20
Alexandra Swayne	0.10%	1000	1001		73
Alice Hewson	1.77%	56	41		47
Amaia Latorre	0.33%	303	351		91
Amy Lee	0.48%	208	501	0.30%	12	-0.3	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amy Taylor	0.18%	556	751		73
Ana Dawson	0.05%	2000	751		83
Ana Pelaez Trivino	1.02%	98	81		9
Andrea Grimberg Lignell	0.03%	3333	1251		127
Anna Foster	0.73%	137	126		27
Anna Huang	3.40%	29	17		1
Anna Morgan	0.98%	102	71		3
Anna Zanusso	1.20%	83	76		3
Annabel Wilson	0.05%	2000	751		100
Annabell Fuller	0.92%	109	51		73
Anne-Charlotte Mora	0.08%	1250	601		83
Ariane Klotz	0.11%	909	601		60
Aunchisa Utama	0.82%	122	176	0.30%	27	-0.3	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Avani Prashanth	0.54%	185	201		73
Ayako Uehara	0.29%	345	751	0.20%	60	-0.2	Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blanca Fernandez	0.60%	167	161		27
Brianna Navarrosa	2.15%	47	34		20
Caitlyn Macnab	0.45%	222	161		12
Camille Chevalier	0.83%	120	161	0.20%	109	-0.2	Spreadex: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cara Gainer	2.07%	48	29		6
Carolin Kauffmann	0.09%	1111	751		69
Casandra Alexander	7.27%	14	8		9
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.15%	667	751		39
Celina Sattelkau	1.10%	91	56		12
Celine Herbin	1.96%	51	56	0.20%	57	-0.2	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlotte Heath	0.58%	172	251	0.20%	39	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Charlotte Liautier	0.26%	385	401		69
Chiara Noja	1.87%	53	67	0.40%	32	-0.4	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chloe Williams	0.37%	270	151		109
Constanza Guerrero	0.00%	10000	1501		91
Corinne Viden	0.28%	357	351		114
Daniela Darquea	1.17%	85	131	0.40%	32	-0.4	Spreadex: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darcey Harry	0.78%	128	86		47
Diksha Dagar	1.47%	68	36		20
Dorota Zalewska	0.15%	667	401		52
Dorthea Forbrigd	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	32	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Eleanor Givens	0.96%	104	301	0.60%	20	-0.6	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ellen Hume	0.35%	286	301		127
Emma Falcher	0.36%	278	276		91
Emma Grechi	0.26%	385	501	0.10%	119	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emma Spitz	1.18%	85	67		39
Esme Hamilton	0.85%	118	71		12
Fernanda Lira	0.14%	714	401		114
Gabriella Cowley	0.05%	2000	751		114
Gemma Clews	0.59%	169	141		39
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh	0.02%	5000	2001		100
Ginnie Ding	0.10%	1000	751		47
Gudrun Bjorgvinsdottir	0.03%	3333	1001		73
Hannah Burke	0.11%	909	751		114
Hannah Darling	0.02%	5000	1001		47
Hannah Screen	0.94%	106	101		32
Harang Lee	0.12%	833	751		27
Hitaashee Bakshi	0.13%	769	501		73
Hyeonji Kang	0.03%	3333	601		67
Jess Baker	0.09%	1111	751		20
Justice Bosio	0.54%	185	151		39
Kajsa Arwefjall	3.53%	28	19		12
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.17%	588	751		52
Kelsey Bennett	1.42%	70	36		2
Kim Metraux	0.24%	417	451		121
Kirsten Rudgeley	1.86%	54	31		47
Klara Davidson Spilkova	0.49%	204	201		73
Kristyna Napoleaova	0.27%	370	351		60
Laura Fuenfstueck	1.32%	76	81	0.10%	83	-0.1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lee-Anne Pace	0.53%	189	141		69
Leonie Harm	2.41%	41	29		57
Lianna Bailey	0.12%	833	801		64
Lily May Humphreys	0.35%	286	251		109
Lina Belmati	0.00%	10000	1251		91
Lisa Pettersson	1.37%	73	91	0.30%	20	-0.3	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Liz Young	0.12%	833	601		83
Lorna Mcclymont	0.07%	1429	1001		91
Louise Rydqvist	0.22%	455	501		83
Louise Uma Landgraf	0.00%	10000	71		39
Luca Thompson	0.12%	833	751		68
Lucie Vachova	0.10%	1000	1001		91
Luna Sobron Galmes	1.45%	69	61		27
Lydia Hall	0.63%	159	201	0.10%	124	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	1.55%	65	67	0.10%	91	-0.1	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Madelene Stavnar	0.21%	476	351		109
Maha Haddioui	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	39	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Malak Bouraeda	0.00%	10000	1251		129
Maria Eidhagen-Harrouch	0.01%	10000	1001		100
Maria Hernandez	0.11%	909	1001		73
Maria Parra	0.08%	1250	1001		100
Marta Martin	0.06%	1667	751		73
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.08%	1250	1001		63
Matilde Partele	0.02%	5000	1501		73
Meghan MacLaren	0.62%	161	67		100
Mim Sangkapong	0.03%	3333	1001		119
Moa Folke	0.36%	278	226		83
Momoka Kobori	0.38%	263	251		121
Morgane Metraux	1.54%	65	86	0.40%	83	-0.4	Spreadex: 85/1, 5pl, 1/4
Napat Lertsadwattana	0.79%	127	71		130
Noha Ghadi	0.00%	10000	1001		121
Noora Komulainen	0.71%	141	101		83
Olivia Cowan	3.81%	26	23		32
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.50%	200	176		20
Patricie Mackova	0.34%	294	301		100
Perrine Delacour	4.80%	21	19		32
Pia Babnik	1.16%	86	36		5
Pranavi Urs	0.87%	115	126	0.10%	17	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rim Imni	0.05%	2000	751		64
Roberta Liti	1.68%	60	81	0.50%	17	-0.5	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Romy Meekers	0.21%	476	751	0.10%	100	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sara Byrne	0.19%	526	601		57
Sara Kouskova	1.11%	90	71		6
Shannon Tan	4.15%	24	15		8
Sofia Cherif Essakali	0.01%	10000	401		130
Sofie Kibsgaard Nielsen	1.20%	83	81		32
Sophie Witt	0.19%	526	251		109
Stephanie Bunque	0.38%	263	451	0.20%	100	-0.2	Spreadex: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Teresa Toscano	0.20%	500	401		39
Tereza Melecka	0.40%	250	251		100
Thalia Kirby	0.00%	10000	1001		124
Thalia Martin	0.28%	357	401		91
Tiffany Arafi	0.05%	2000	1001		91
Trichat Cheenglab	0.42%	238	101		130
Ursula Wikstrom	0.27%	370	451		9
Vanessa Bouvet	0.01%	10000	1501		114
Vanessa Knecht	0.20%	500	276		52
Virginia Elena Carta	0.20%	500	401		64

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Eleanor Givens	0.96%	104	301	0.60%	20	-2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Roberta Liti	1.68%	60	81	0.50%	17	-2	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Chiara Noja	1.87%	53	67	0.40%	32	-2	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.