Simulation Results: Lalla Meryem Cup

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Agathe Laisne 1.01% 99 251 0.60% 47 -0.6 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Agathe Sauzon 1.23% 81 81 79
Alessandra Fanali 0.95% 105 46 73
Alessia Nobilio 0.01% 10000 161 30
Alexandra Forsterling 0.55% 182 36 65
Alice Hewson 2.86% 35 29 16
Aline Krauter 3.39% 29 51 1.50% 8 -1.5 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Amelia Garvey 0.78% 128 111
Amy Taylor 0.78% 128 251 0.40% 51 -0.4 Skybet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ana Pelaez Trivino 1.85% 54 34 16
Anna Foster 0.04% 2500 351 42
Anna Huang 0.06% 1667 501 42
Anna Magnusson 0.08% 1250 351 16
Anna Zanusso 0.00% 10000 176 81
Annabel Dimmock 2.99% 33 29 16
Annabel Wilson 0.07% 1429 501 33
Annabell Fuller 0.88% 114 126 0.10% 6 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
April Angurasaranee 0.44% 227 101 51
Ariane Klotz 0.13% 769 226 63
Aunchisa Utama 0.41% 244 351 0.10% 8 -0.1 Skybet: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Avani Prashanth 0.20% 500 161 16
Ayako Uehara 0.66% 152 201 0.20% 30 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Billie-Jo Smith 0.02% 5000 101 65
Blanca Fernandez 0.86% 116 126 0.10% 22 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brianna Navarrosa 0.01% 10000 226 16
Bronte Law 4.00% 25 29 0.60% 8 -0.6 Spreadex: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
Camille Chevalier 0.18% 556 601 101
Cara Gainer 1.38% 72 91 0.30% 1 16.875 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carmen Alonso 0.11% 909 751 103
Caroline Hedwall 0.68% 147 81 51
Casandra Alexander 2.20% 45 26 42
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen 0.10% 1000 501 30
Celine Herbin 0.73% 137 201 0.20% 8 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chiara Tamburlini 2.82% 35 17 35
Chloe Williams 1.09% 92 76 93
Daniela Darquea 1.64% 61 41 24
Darcey Harry 0.00% 10000 201 81
Diksha Dagar 0.94% 106 76 2
Dorthea Forbrigd 1.46% 68 126 0.70% 47 -0.7 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ela Anacona 0.72% 139 401 0.50% 57 -0.5 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eleanor Givens 0.36% 278 376 0.10% 81 -0.1 Spreadex: 375/1, 6pl, 1/5
Elena Moosmann 0.34% 294 226 42
Ellinor Sudow 0.18% 556 601 64
Emma Spitz 2.23% 45 46 0.10% 22 -0.1 Skybet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gabriella Cowley 0.25% 400 176 33
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh 0.43% 233 451 0.20% 98 -0.2 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ginnie Ding 0.03% 3333 401 81
Hannah Burke 0.26% 385 251 65
Hannah Screen 2.16% 46 46
Helen Briem 11.13% 9 6.5 24
Ines Belchior 0.00% 10000 501 62
Ines Laklalech 0.81% 123 76 35
Johanna Wrigley 1.02% 98 56 89
Kajsa Arwefjall 0.13% 769 121 8
Kim Metraux 0.39% 256 226 73
Klara Davidson Spilkova 1.06% 94 81 24
Kristyna Napoleaova 0.11% 909 451 103
Laura Fuenfstueck 0.41% 244 141 89
Lauren Walsh 1.95% 51 46 4
Leticia Ras-Anderica 0.01% 10000 1001 81
Lily May Humphreys 0.13% 769 276 93
Lina Belmati 0.00% 10000 1001 73
Lisa Pettersson 0.49% 204 276 0.10% 8 -0.1 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Liz Young 2.65% 38 51 0.70% 103 -0.7 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lorna Mcclymont 0.00% 10000 251 42
Luna Sobron Galmes 1.42% 70 41 8
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard 0.40% 250 301 0.10% 73 -0.1 Skybet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maha Haddioui 0.44% 227 176 81
Malak Bouraeda 0.01% 10000 1001 79
Maria Fassi 2.61% 38 31 65
Maria Hernandez 0.89% 112 101 65
Marine Griffaut 0.04% 2500 601 35
Marta Martin 0.84% 119 101 35
Marta Sanz Barrio 0.16% 625 601 35
Megan Dennis 0.00% 10000 226 98
Meghan MacLaren 0.07% 1429 451 51
Michaela Finn 0.50% 200 401 0.30% 35 -0.3 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mimi Rhodes 0.64% 156 46 35
Moa Folke 1.27% 79 71 81
Momoka Kobori 0.80% 125 121 65
Nastasia Nadaud 1.33% 75 36 6
Natacha Host Husted 0.00% 10000 226 51
Nicole Garcia 1.72% 58 67 0.20% 103 -0.2 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nikki Hofstede 0.07% 1429 301 57
Nobuhle Dlamini 0.24% 417 501 65
Noora Komulainen 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 81 -0.1 Skybet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nuria Iturrioz 0.90% 111 51 4
Olivia Mehaffey 0.05% 2000 1001 57
Patricia Isabel Schmidt 0.64% 156 81 93
Perrine Delacour 7.19% 14 23 3.00% 73 -3 Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pia Babnik 2.08% 48 17 61
Rosie Davies 0.27% 370 351 65
Sanna Nuutinen 0.29% 345 351 47
Sara Byrne 0.53% 189 111 24
Sara Kouskova 0.98% 102 67 24
Sarah Schober 0.47% 213 226 47
Shannon Tan 2.70% 37 29 3
Smilla Tarning Soenderby 0.37% 270 251 103
Sofia Cherif Essakali 0.07% 1429 101 51
Sofie Bringner 0.41% 244 251 98
Teresa Toscano 1.29% 78 71 8
Tiffany Arafi 0.14% 714 601 103
Tina Mazarino 0.00% 10000 121 89
Trichat Cheenglab 1.93% 52 41 24
Tvesa Malik 0.13% 769 251 93
Ursula Wikstrom 0.84% 119 126 60
Vanessa Bouvet 0.00% 10000 501 102
Verena Gimmy 0.04% 2500 751 93

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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