Simulation Results: La Sella Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Agathe Sauzon 0.38% 263 276 51
Alessandra Fanali 1.54% 65 29 8
Alessia Nobilio 0.32% 313 301 26
Alexandra Forsterling 1.38% 72 41 31
Alexandra Swayne 0.14% 714 301 62
Alice Hewson 5.00% 20 19 31
Aloysa Atienza 0.00% 10000 1001 122
Amaia Latorre 0.25% 400 201 62
Amelia Garvey 2.00% 50 36 62
Amy Taylor 0.56% 179 176 44
Ana Pelaez Trivino 0.86% 116 61 76
Anna Foster 0.15% 667 161 126
Anna Huang 1.06% 94 161 0.40% 1 40 Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anna Magnusson 0.11% 909 351 40
Anna Zanusso 0.11% 909 451 76
Annabel Wilson 0.07% 1429 451 19
Annabell Fuller 0.86% 116 111 109
Anne-Charlotte Mora 0.08% 1250 151 117
Ariane Klotz 0.03% 3333 301 76
Aunchisa Utama 0.10% 1000 451 76
Avani Prashanth 0.20% 500 226 76
Ayako Uehara 0.69% 145 161 0.10% 112 -0.1 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Billie-Jo Smith 0.03% 3333 751 58
Blanca Fernandez 0.04% 2500 351 36
Brianna Navarrosa 1.61% 62 81 0.40% 51 -0.4 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Camille Chevalier 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 46 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Canice Screene 0.02% 5000 1501 91
Cara Gainer 3.91% 26 26 0.10% 19 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Carolin Kauffmann 0.21% 476 251 103
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra 2.24% 45 36 26
Casandra Alexander 4.37% 23 19 15
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen 0.10% 1000 451 53
Celina Sattelkau 0.78% 128 151 0.10% 62 -0.1 Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Celine Herbin 0.56% 179 126 76
Charlotte Laffar 0.06% 1667 301 76
Chiara Tamburlini 9.61% 10 9 6
Chloe Williams 0.96% 104 126 0.20% 126 -0.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Danielle Du Toit 0.00% 10000 1001 109
Darcey Harry 3.61% 28 23 31
Diksha Dagar 2.36% 42 41 76
Dorota Zalewska 0.08% 1250 351 53
Dorthea Forbrigd 0.84% 119 111 91
Eleanor Givens 0.16% 625 351 62
Elena Moosmann 0.00% 10000 1001 103
Elina Nummenpaa 0.01% 10000 751 76
Ellie Gower 0.01% 10000 2501 112
Emie Peronnin 0.02% 5000 1001 62
Emily Penttila 0.04% 2500 801 56
Emma Grechi 0.18% 556 451 103
Emma Spitz 2.46% 41 34 19
Esme Hamilton 0.13% 769 176 61
Fernanda Lira 0.13% 769 111 76
Florentyna Parker 0.02% 5000 601 130
Georgia Oboh 0.01% 10000 1001 122
Ginnie Ding 0.22% 455 301 62
Gudrun Bjorgvinsdottir 0.08% 1250 801 103
Hannah Screen 0.99% 101 76 46
Harang Lee 0.13% 769 226 58
Hayley Davis 0.02% 5000 1001 132
Helen Briem 2.97% 34 21 36
Helen Tamy Kreuzer 0.02% 5000 1001 103
Hitaashee Bakshi 0.21% 476 551 53
Jana Melichova 0.43% 233 151 7
Jess Baker 0.01% 10000 1501 46
Jessica Hall 0.02% 5000 601 91
Johanna Wrigley 0.09% 1111 201 36
Kajsa Arwefjall 2.05% 49 51 0.10% 11 -0.1 Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kelsey Bennett 1.00% 100 91 26
Kelsey Macdonald 0.00% 10000 2001 122
Kim Metraux 0.76% 132 76 40
Kirsten Rudgeley 0.87% 115 81 8
Klara Davidson Spilkova 0.67% 149 101 26
Kristyna Napoleaova 0.27% 370 101 91
Kylie Henry 0.06% 1667 601 62
Laura Beveridge 0.03% 3333 451 19
Laura Fuenfstueck 0.96% 104 51 109
Lauren Walsh 3.36% 30 26 5
Leonie Harm 0.64% 156 51 19
Lianna Bailey 0.02% 5000 501 91
Lisa Pettersson 1.00% 100 111 0.10% 15 -0.1 Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Liz Young 0.54% 185 451 0.30% 122 -0.3 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Luna Sobron Galmes 1.08% 93 46 26
Lydia Hall 0.64% 156 131 19
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard 0.91% 110 161 0.30% 3 4.65 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Madelene Stavnar 0.04% 2500 551 62
Magdalena Simmermacher 0.00% 10000 1001 91
Maha Haddioui 0.24% 417 451 31
Maria Hernandez 0.17% 588 301 117
Maria Villanueva 0.00% 10000 2501 91
Marianne Skarpnord 0.03% 3333 1001 60
Marta Martin 0.15% 667 326 15
Marta Sanz Barrio 0.10% 1000 451 76
Mayka Hoogeboom 0.00% 10000 2501 62
Megan Dennis 0.00% 10000 1501 129
Meghan MacLaren 0.06% 1667 351 46
Mimi Rhodes 6.29% 16 10.5 11
Moa Folke 1.54% 65 111 0.60% 11 -0.6 Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Momoka Kobori 0.56% 179 101 25
Nastasia Nadaud 4.22% 24 21 2
Natacha Host Husted 0.04% 2500 651 36
Natasha Fear 0.00% 10000 2501 117
Noora Komulainen 0.91% 110 141 0.20% 76 -0.2 Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nuria Iturrioz 1.80% 56 21 8
Olivia Mehaffey 0.00% 10000 1001 76
Patricia Isabel Schmidt 0.53% 189 141 15
Pia Babnik 1.22% 82 36 11
Pranavi Urs 0.71% 141 151 42
Ridhima Dilawari 0.37% 270 601 0.20% 62 -0.2 Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Romy Meekers 0.17% 588 451 112
Rosie Davies 0.01% 10000 501 130
Sanna Nuutinen 0.06% 1667 601 91
Sara Byrne 0.28% 357 251 62
Sara Kouskova 1.23% 81 56 46
Sarah Schober 0.06% 1667 601 62
Shannon Tan 4.99% 20 11 4
Smilla Tarning Soenderby 0.45% 222 141 31
Sofie Bringner 0.04% 2500 251 56
Sofie Kibsgaard 0.68% 147 91 44
Stacy Lee Bregman 0.00% 10000 1001 76
Teresa Toscano 0.10% 1000 451 117
Tereza Melecka 0.06% 1667 451 117
Thalia Martin 0.32% 313 301 42
Tiia Koivisto 0.04% 2500 2001 126
Tina Mazarino 0.11% 909 451 91
Trichat Cheenglab 1.12% 89 67 76
Tvesa Malik 0.01% 10000 501 91
Ursula Wikstrom 0.34% 294 176 62
Vanessa Bouvet 0.00% 10000 2001 91
Vani Kapoor 0.04% 2500 601 91
Verena Gimmy 0.01% 10000 501 103
Wenyung Keh 0.00% 10000 1001 112
Whitney Hillier 0.03% 3333 751 112

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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