Simulation Results: Joburg Ladies Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Agathe Laisne	3.80%	26	23		1
Agathe Sauzon	0.20%	500	301		87
Aine Donegan	0.36%	278	81		113
Alessia Nobilio	0.51%	196	201		24
Alexandra Forsterling	4.24%	24	17		24
Alexandra Swayne	0.11%	909	301		87
Alice Hewson	2.19%	46	29		19
Amaia Latorre	0.27%	370	226		69
Amalie Leth-Nissen	0.00%	10000	801		118
Amelia Garvey	4.90%	20	17		13
Amy Lee	0.14%	714	501		76
Amy Taylor	0.41%	244	301	0.10%	76	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ana Dawson	0.06%	1667	251		24
Ana Pelaez Trivino	0.75%	133	46		24
Andrea Grimberg Lignell	0.10%	1000	301		113
Anna Foster	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	38	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anna Huang	6.24%	16	15		24
Anna Morgan	2.06%	49	46		44
Anna Zanusso	1.10%	91	111	0.20%	19	-0.2	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Annabell Fuller	1.82%	55	56		36
Anne-Charlotte Mora	0.12%	833	151		87
Anne-Lise Caudal	0.02%	5000	401		108
April Angurasaranee	1.04%	96	41		54
Ariane Klotz	0.01%	10000	401		12
Aunchisa Utama	0.67%	149	176	0.10%	44	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Avani Prashanth	0.56%	179	126		100
Ayako Uehara	0.49%	204	401	0.20%	87	-0.2	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blanca Fernandez	0.70%	143	91		19
Brianna Navarrosa	2.00%	50	67	0.50%	9	-0.5	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caitlyn Macnab	0.39%	256	56		69
Camille Chevalier	0.84%	119	131	0.10%	13	-0.1	Spreadex: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cara Gainer	1.53%	65	41		5
Cara Gorlei	0.01%	10000	301		53
Carolin Kauffmann	0.13%	769	226		87
Casandra Alexander	9.43%	11	6.5		2
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.03%	3333	751		87
Celina Sattelkau	0.85%	118	46		24
Celine Herbin	1.99%	50	101	1.00%	4	12	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlotte Heath	1.46%	68	61		54
Chloe Salort	0.02%	5000	751		87
Corinne Viden	0.42%	238	201		38
Danielle Du Toit	0.02%	5000	76		24
Darcey Harry	1.57%	64	36		44
Diksha Dagar	3.24%	31	34	0.30%	61	-0.3	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doris Chen	0.00%	10000	601		111
Dorthea Forbrigd	1.43%	70	56		38
Ellen Hume	0.01%	10000	201		113
Emie Peronnin	0.02%	5000	751		52
Emily Penttila	0.15%	667	351		111
Emma Falcher	0.18%	556	326		10
Emma Grechi	0.15%	667	351		61
Emma Spitz	2.61%	38	46	0.40%	76	-0.4	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Esme Hamilton	0.71%	141	141		61
Fernanda Lira	0.09%	1111	201		61
Gabriella Cowley	0.09%	1111	251		102
Gabrielle Venter	0.01%	10000	81		24
Gemma Clews	0.52%	192	67		76
Ginnie Ding	0.06%	1667	501		44
Gudrun Bjorgvinsdottir	0.05%	2000	176		76
Hannah Burke	0.12%	833	451		61
Hannah Darling	0.02%	5000	301		60
Hannah Screen	0.83%	120	161	0.20%	19	-0.2	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harang Lee	0.10%	1000	351		87
Hayley Davis	0.10%	1000	251		116
Hitaashee Bakshi	0.64%	156	111		106
Jess Baker	0.04%	2500	501		49
Jordan Rothman	0.00%	10000	101		116
Justice Bosio	0.13%	769	126		38
Kaiyuree Moodley	0.02%	5000	161		119
Kajsa Arwefjall	3.60%	28	29	0.20%	7	-0.2	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.19%	526	126		87
Kelsey Bennett	3.22%	31	15		24
Kiera Floyd	0.28%	357	56		76
Kirsten Rudgeley	1.83%	55	19		2
Klara Davidson Spilkova	0.70%	143	201	0.20%	76	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Laura Beveridge	0.07%	1429	251		24
Lee-Anne Pace	1.30%	77	34		69
Lianna Bailey	0.03%	3333	276		87
Lily May Humphreys	0.23%	435	226		61
Lisa Coetzer	0.00%	10000	76		76
Lois Lau	0.07%	1429	101		61
Lorna Mcclymont	0.12%	833	301		76
Louisa Carlbom	0.04%	2500	131		38
Louise Rydqvist	0.06%	1667	351		102
Luca Thompson	0.01%	10000	301		76
Lucie Malchirand	0.02%	5000	126		108
Lucie Vachova	0.05%	2000	301		49
Luna Sobron Galmes	1.17%	85	101	0.20%	8	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lydia Hall	0.72%	139	91		44
Madelene Stavnar	0.17%	588	251		58
Maha Haddioui	0.61%	164	201	0.10%	24	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maria Parra	0.03%	3333	401		87
Marianne Skarpnord	0.10%	1000	401		100
Marta Martin	0.17%	588	201		106
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.05%	2000	326		54
Meghan MacLaren	1.00%	100	41		69
Momoka Kobori	1.06%	94	71		24
Morgane Metraux	3.53%	28	46	1.40%	10	-1.4	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nadia Van Der Westhuizen	0.03%	3333	41		76
Nobuhle Dlamini	0.02%	5000	276		38
Olivia Cowan	5.09%	20	23	0.80%	13	-0.8	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Olivia Mehaffey	0.01%	10000	451		69
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.74%	135	141		19
Patricie Mackova	0.49%	204	151		69
Pia Babnik	1.06%	94	67		5
Pranavi Urs	1.34%	75	101	0.40%	36	-0.4	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Roberta Liti	3.32%	30	56	1.60%	102	-1.6	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Romy Meekers	0.07%	1429	301		69
Sanna Nuutinen	0.24%	417	351		108
Sofie Kibsgaard Nielsen	0.62%	161	91		13
Sophie Witt	0.00%	10000	151		54
Stacy Bregman	0.03%	3333	301		102
Tereza Melecka	0.09%	1111	301		87
Thalia Kirby	0.00%	10000	176		120
Thalia Martin	0.05%	2000	301		87
Tina Mazarino	0.14%	714	751		13
Tvesa Malik	0.07%	1429	301		61
Vanessa Knecht	0.36%	278	126		13
Verena Gimmy	0.02%	5000	351		49
Zane Kleynhans	0.00%	10000	151		58

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Roberta Liti	3.32%	30	56	1.60%	102	-2	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Morgane Metraux	3.53%	28	46	1.40%	10	-2	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Celine Herbin	1.99%	50	101	1.00%	4	24	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.