Simulation Results: Joburg Ladies Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Agathe Laisne 1.26% 79 161 0.60% 17 -0.6 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Agathe Sauzon 0.41% 244 226 94
Alessandra Fanali 1.50% 67 41 28
Alessia Nobilio 0.66% 152 161 54
Alexandra Swayne 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 28 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alice Hewson 2.59% 39 29 21
Aline Krauter 4.31% 23 29 0.90% 21 -0.9 Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amelia Garvey 0.59% 169 91 73
Amy Taylor 0.68% 147 301 0.30% 28 -0.3 Skybet: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ana Dawson 0.01% 10000 1001 124
Ana Pelaez Trivino 4.54% 22 29 1.10% 130 -1.1 Skybet: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
Anna Huang 1.19% 84 11
Anna Magnusson 0.44% 227 201 65
Anna Zanusso 0.20% 500 501 17
Annabel Dimmock 0.67% 149 41 130
Annabel Wilson 0.12% 833 501 103
Annabell Fuller 1.66% 60 51 65
Anne-Charlotte Mora 0.07% 1429 401 54
Anne-Lise Caudal 0.10% 1000 1001 73
April Angurasaranee 0.36% 278 161 39
Ariane Klotz 0.10% 1000 401 94
Aunchisa Utama 0.41% 244 226 39
Avani Prashanth 1.29% 78 81 0.10% 94 -0.1 Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ayako Uehara 0.62% 161 226 0.20% 54 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Billie-Jo Smith 0.03% 3333 501 115
Blanca Fernandez 0.96% 104 67 33
Bonita Bredenhann 0.13% 769 1501 0.10% 107 -0.1 Skybet: 1500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brianna Navarrosa 1.88% 53 111 1.00% 39 -1 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brittney-Fay Berger 0.00% 10000 2501 112
Bronte Law 2.36% 42 23 21
Camille Chevalier 0.07% 1429 801 115
Cara Gainer 3.24% 31 29 65
Cara Gorlei 0.03% 3333 601 124
Carmen Alonso 0.05% 2000 751 118
Carolin Kauffmann 0.03% 3333 501 21
Casandra Alexander 1.47% 68 21 2
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen 0.20% 500 351 65
Celine Herbin 0.45% 222 176 11
Chiara Noja 0.29% 345 151 107
Chiara Tamburlini 8.56% 12 13 0.90% 6 -0.9 Unibet: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chloe Williams 0.88% 114 101 17
Daniela Darquea 1.33% 75 51 94
Danielle Du Toit 0.03% 3333 141 94
Diksha Dagar 1.71% 58 41 8
Dorthea Forbrigd 0.84% 119 151 0.20% 11 -0.2 Skybet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Eleanor Givens 0.09% 1111 751 39
Elena Moosmann 0.14% 714 501 51
Ellinor Sudow 0.03% 3333 1501 54
Emie Peronnin 0.01% 10000 601 73
Emily Penttila 0.03% 3333 1251 85
Emma Spitz 3.23% 31 26 39
Florentyna Parker 0.15% 667 401 85
Gabrielle Venter 0.00% 10000 376 33
Gia Raad 0.00% 10000 276 107
Ginnie Ding 0.11% 909 601 85
Hannah Burke 0.24% 417 351 73
Hannah Screen 1.22% 82 67 73
Harang Lee 0.04% 2500 601 62
Hayley Davis 0.13% 769 401 73
Helen Briem 4.16% 24 9 3
Helen Tamy Kreuzer 0.13% 769 601 65
Isabella Van Rooyen 0.01% 10000 2501 130
Ivanna Samu 0.05% 2000 2001 107
Jane Turner 0.00% 10000 2501 103
Johanna Wrigley 1.01% 99 81 118
Kaiyuree Moodley 0.00% 10000 126 65
Kajsa Arwefjall 1.14% 88 41 4
Kelsey Bennett 0.52% 192 81 8
Kiera Floyd 0.05% 2000 61 6
Kim Metraux 0.90% 111 126 0.10% 103 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Klara Davidson Spilkova 0.80% 125 91 11
Kristyna Napoleaova 0.04% 2500 601 85
Kylie Henry 0.15% 667 351 21
Laura Beveridge 0.05% 2000 1001 33
Laura Fuenfstueck 0.47% 213 161 63
Lauren Taylor 0.03% 3333 1501 73
Lauren Walsh 1.98% 51 46 4
Lee-Anne Pace 1.02% 98 67 10
Lily May Humphreys 0.03% 3333 601 118
Lindi Coetzee 0.01% 10000 2501 126
Lisa Pettersson 0.32% 313 181 60
Liz Young 1.57% 64 81 0.30% 94 -0.3 Skybet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lora Assad 0.01% 10000 1501 103
Lucie Malchirand 0.02% 5000 601 73
Luna Sobron Galmes 1.21% 83 51 94
Lydia Hall 0.30% 333 176 85
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard 0.08% 1250 751 39
Madelene Stavnar 0.19% 526 401 73
Magdalena Simmermacher 0.02% 5000 601 107
Maha Haddioui 0.20% 500 401 85
Maiken Bing Paulsen 0.02% 5000 1001 112
Maria Hernandez 0.43% 233 176 28
Marta Martin 0.88% 114 111 51
Mayka Hoogeboom 0.00% 10000 1251 21
Megan Dennis 0.00% 10000 601 58
Michelle Forsland 0.00% 10000 2501 64
Mimi Rhodes 2.58% 39 34 1
Moa Folke 2.43% 41 41 17
Momoka Kobori 0.51% 196 111 33
Nadia Van Der Westhuizen 0.06% 1667 376 73
Nastasia Nadaud 1.75% 57 41 11
Natacha Host Husted 0.23% 435 301 73
Nikki Hofstede 0.03% 3333 601 118
Nina Pegova 0.01% 10000 1501 118
Nobuhle Dlamini 0.23% 435 251 33
Nuria Iturrioz 1.13% 88 39
Pasqualle Coffa 0.01% 10000 1251 112
Patricia Isabel Schmidt 0.18% 556 251 115
Perrine Delacour 3.96% 25 46 1.80% 65 -1.8 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pia Babnik 1.62% 62 23 85
Pranavi Urs 1.30% 77 61 39
Romy Meekers 0.02% 5000 501 58
Rosie Davies 0.09% 1111 501 127
Sanna Nuutinen 0.23% 435 601 0.10% 73 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sara Byrne 0.52% 192 151 11
Sara Kouskova 3.00% 33 29 33
Sarah Schober 0.66% 152 176 0.10% 85 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Shannon Tan 4.24% 24 21 39
Smilla Tarning Soenderby 0.40% 250 151 21
Sofie Bringner 0.09% 1111 376 39
Sofie Kibsgaard 0.14% 714 101 39
Stacy Lee Bregman 0.03% 3333 1001 60
Tandi McCallum 0.04% 2500 1501 94
Teresa Toscano 1.21% 83 126 0.40% 51 -0.4 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tereza Melecka 0.07% 1429 301 65
Thalia Martin 0.05% 2000 601 39
Tina Mazarino 0.16% 625 301 85
Trichat Cheenglab 1.09% 92 67 94
Tvesa Malik 0.07% 1429 501 118
Vanessa Knecht 0.01% 10000 2001 128
Verena Gimmy 0.02% 5000 1001 28
Yolanda Duma 0.02% 5000 3001 128

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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