Simulation Results: Hulencourt Women's Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aditi Ashok	5.81%	17	23	1.50%	3	3.375	Betway: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Agathe Sauzon	0.24%	417	301		90
Aine Donegan	0.31%	323	161		84
Alejandra Llaneza	0.02%	5000	1001		54
Alessia Nobilio	0.38%	263	301		67
Alexandra Swayne	0.16%	625	601		111
Alice Hewson	1.10%	91	46		71
Alix Denis	0.00%	10000	1001		127
Amaia Latorre	0.39%	256	401	0.10%	42	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amelia Garvey	2.73%	37	23		39
Amy Lee	0.33%	303	601	0.20%	111	-0.2	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amy Taylor	0.15%	667	1001	0.10%	84	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ana Dawson	0.04%	2500	1001		54
Andrea Lignell	0.02%	5000	1251		90
Anna Canado	0.00%	10000	501		59
Anna Foster	0.78%	128	101		12
Anna Morgan	1.73%	58	51		12
Anna Zanusso	1.47%	68	51		116
Annabell Fuller	0.60%	167	91		71
Annika Borrelli	0.25%	400	301		98
April Angurasaranee	0.20%	500	301		126
Ariane Klotz	0.23%	435	201		106
Aunchisa Utama	0.51%	196	101		67
Avani Prashanth	0.68%	147	67		42
Ayako Uehara	0.21%	476	301		42
Belinda Ji	0.06%	1667			90
Billie-Jo Smith	0.01%	10000	1001		64
Blanca Fernandez	1.09%	92	101	0.10%	24	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brianna Navarrosa	0.73%	137	67		7
Bronte Law	0.15%	667	101		4
Caitlyn Macnab	0.47%	213	141		49
Caley McGinty	3.26%	31	51	1.30%	62	-1.3	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Camille Chevalier	0.51%	196	251	0.10%	120	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cara Gainer	3.19%	31	21		59
Cara Gorlei	0.04%	2500	601		64
Carolina Chacarra	2.65%	38	46	0.50%	1	14.0625	Betway: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.25%	400	351		67
Celina Sattelkau	1.02%	98	46		98
Celine Herbin	1.53%	65	71	0.10%	21	-0.1	Spreadex: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Celine Manche	0.04%	2500	1001		124
Charlotte Heath	1.24%	81	111	0.30%			Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlotte Liautier	0.13%	769	1001		111
Chiara Noja	0.29%	345	176		98
Corinne Viden	0.10%	1000	1001		49
Daniela Darquea	3.02%	33	46	0.90%	98	-0.9	Betway: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darcey Harry	0.80%	125	71
Diksha Dagar	2.59%	39	21		7
Dorota Zalewska	0.18%	556	601		71
Dorthea Forbrigd	1.53%	65	46		35
Eleanor Givens	0.39%	256	351	0.10%	98	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ellen Hume	0.07%	1429	601		71
Emie Peronnin	0.01%	10000	1001		71
Emma Falcher	0.06%	1667	501		71
Emma Grechi	0.13%	769	751		129
Emma Spitz	2.61%	38	31		12
Fernanda Lira	0.07%	1429	501		111
Florentyna Parker	0.04%	2500	1501		98
Gemma Clews	0.58%	172	161		31
Georgia Hall	2.28%	44	31		24
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh	0.05%	2000	751		98
Ginnie Ding	0.51%	196	141		42
Hannah Darling	0.00%	10000	1251		106
Hannah Gregg	0.00%	10000			116
Hannah Screen	0.92%	109	46		6
Harang Lee	0.21%	476	201		31
Hester Sicking	0.00%	10000	1501
Hyeonji Kang	0.09%	1111	1001		21
Jana Melichova	0.07%	1429	226		90
Jess Baker	0.11%	909	601		71
Justice Bosio	1.00%	100	67		90
Kajsa Arwefjall	1.66%	60	29		49
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.11%	909	1001		128
Kelsey Bennett	2.02%	50	34		2
Kelsey MacDonald	0.03%	3333	1251		71
Kirsten Rudgeley	1.92%	52	31		7
Kristyna Napoleaova	0.28%	357	351		64
Laura Beveridge	0.03%	3333	1001		119
Lee-Anne Pace	0.92%	109	81		18
Lianna Bailey	0.04%	2500	1001		35
Lily May Humphreys	0.21%	476	401		71
Lisa Pettersson	2.21%	45	34		42
Liz Young	0.52%	192	301	0.20%	35	-0.2	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lois Lau	0.30%	333	301		84
Louise Rydqvist	0.19%	526	601		31
Luca Thompson	0.03%	3333	751		106
Lucie Vachova	0.08%	1250	1001		70
Luna Sobron Galmes	1.28%	78	56		24
Lydia Hall	0.76%	132	91		84
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	1.18%	85	81		54
Madelene Stavnar	0.04%	2500	1001		90
Magdalena Simmermacher	0.05%	2000	601		122
Maha Haddioui	0.66%	152	226	0.20%	42	-0.2	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maria Parra	0.02%	5000	1501		124
Maria Vittoria Corbi	0.03%	3333	501		39
Marianne Skarpnord	0.33%	303	226		24
Marta Martin	0.20%	500	351		71
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.02%	5000	1001		106
Meghan MacLaren	0.53%	189	126		59
Michaela Vavrova	0.06%	1667	351		122
Moa Folke	1.45%	69	67		21
Momoka Kobori	0.25%	400	176		12
Morgane Metraux	2.08%	48	67	0.60%	4	3.66	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nadia Van Der Westhuizen	0.01%	10000	1001		7
Napat Lertsadwattana	0.76%	132	176	0.20%	54	-0.2	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nobuhle Dlamini	0.06%	1667	1001		120
Noora Komulainen	1.63%	61	56		7
Olivia Mehaffey	0.07%	1429	1001		90
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.52%	192	251	0.10%	84	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patricie Mackova	0.33%	303	351		98
Pia Babnik	1.55%	65	26		24
Pranavi Urs	1.43%	70	91	0.30%	18	-0.3	Betway: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Roberta Liti	2.99%	33	51	1.00%	39	-1	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Romy Meekers	0.22%	455	401		24
Sanna Nuutinen	0.04%	2500	501		71
Sara Byrne	1.13%	88	126	0.30%	84	-0.3	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sarah Kemp	1.53%	65	81	0.30%	49	-0.3	Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Savannah De Bock	0.23%	435	201		71
Shannon Tan	7.31%	14	9		42
Smilla Tarning Soenderby	1.61%	62	46		12
Sofie Kibsgaard	0.54%	185	91		35
Soomin Oh	3.97%	25	17		49
Sophie Bert	0.00%	10000	1001		54
Sophie Witt	0.07%	1429	301		116
Stephanie Bunque	0.20%	500	501		31
Tereza Melecka	0.08%	1250	501		111
Thalia Martin	0.23%	435	601	0.10%	24	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tina Mazarino	0.09%	1111	601		106
Trichat Cheenglab	0.80%	125	71		12
Ursula Wikstrom	0.41%	244	176		18
Vanessa Knecht	0.25%	400	226		71
Verena Gimmy	0.07%	1429	1001		63
Whitney Hillier	0.02%	5000	1001		90

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aditi Ashok	3.28%	30	23		7
Agathe Sauzon	0.48%	208	126		113
Aine Donegan	0.51%	196	91		93
Alejandra Llaneza	0.12%	833	201		33
Alessia Nobilio	0.60%	167	126		77
Alexandra Swayne	0.37%	270	201		50
Alice Hewson	1.15%	87	36		33
Alix Denis	0.02%	5000	251		125
Amaia Latorre	0.64%	156	151		50
Amelia Garvey	2.00%	50	26		33
Amy Lee	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	118	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amy Taylor	0.36%	278	251		93
Ana Dawson	0.17%	588	201		24
Andrea Lignell	0.11%	909	251		77
Anna Canado	0.02%	5000	161		60
Anna Foster	0.95%	105	71		16
Anna Morgan	1.45%	69	41		16
Anna Zanusso	1.34%	75	41		125
Annabell Fuller	0.76%	132	67		77
Annika Borrelli	0.46%	217	111		77
April Angurasaranee	0.46%	217	101		129
Ariane Klotz	0.50%	200	91		93
Aunchisa Utama	0.74%	135	76		16
Avani Prashanth	0.86%	116	51		24
Ayako Uehara	0.44%	227	126		33
Belinda Ji	0.24%	417			60
Billie-Jo Smith	0.09%	1111	251		93
Blanca Fernandez	1.08%	93	46		24
Brianna Navarrosa	0.92%	109	51		16
Bronte Law	0.35%	286	76		1
Caitlyn Macnab	0.70%	143	71		33
Caley McGinty	2.26%	44	41		60
Camille Chevalier	0.68%	147	126		122
Cara Gainer	2.26%	44	21		103
Cara Gorlei	0.17%	588	126		33
Carolina Chacarra	2.02%	50	41		7
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.46%	217	126		60
Celina Sattelkau	1.05%	95	41		103
Celine Herbin	1.45%	69	51		77
Celine Manche	0.13%	769	201		128
Charlotte Heath	1.20%	83	76
Charlotte Liautier	0.35%	286	201		103
Chiara Noja	0.54%	185	76		60
Corinne Viden	0.32%	313	161		7
Daniela Darquea	2.12%	47	36		113
Darcey Harry	0.95%	105	56
Diksha Dagar	2.04%	49	26		1
Dorota Zalewska	0.40%	250	201		77
Dorthea Forbrigd	1.42%	70	41		33
Eleanor Givens	0.62%	161	126		60
Ellen Hume	0.25%	400	126		77
Emie Peronnin	0.12%	833	201		93
Emma Falcher	0.23%	435	161		50
Emma Grechi	0.35%	286	201		60
Emma Spitz	1.97%	51	34		33
Fernanda Lira	0.23%	435	151		113
Florentyna Parker	0.22%	455	301		122
Gemma Clews	0.74%	135	91		33
Georgia Hall	1.78%	56	34		50
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh	0.22%	455	201		103
Ginnie Ding	0.71%	141	51		33
Hannah Darling	0.09%	1111	251		33
Hannah Gregg	0.03%	3333			103
Hannah Screen	1.03%	97	36		7
Harang Lee	0.44%	227	111		60
Hester Sicking	0.03%	3333	251
Hyeonji Kang	0.26%	385	201		33
Jana Melichova	0.25%	400	91		77
Jess Baker	0.33%	303	161		77
Justice Bosio	1.08%	93	51		77
Kajsa Arwefjall	1.44%	69	36		50
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.29%	345	251		122
Kelsey Bennett	1.67%	60	36		7
Kelsey MacDonald	0.18%	556	251		77
Kirsten Rudgeley	1.58%	63	34		7
Kristyna Napoleaova	0.50%	200	126		16
Laura Beveridge	0.21%	476	151		103
Lee-Anne Pace	1.01%	99	51		33
Lianna Bailey	0.17%	588	251		33
Lily May Humphreys	0.44%	227	151		24
Lisa Pettersson	1.70%	59	36		93
Liz Young	0.72%	139	126		7
Lois Lau	0.56%	179	111		24
Louise Rydqvist	0.45%	222	201		60
Luca Thompson	0.17%	588	201		77
Lucie Vachova	0.31%	323	161		50
Luna Sobron Galmes	1.34%	75	41		113
Lydia Hall	0.91%	110	67		16
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	1.20%	83	56		60
Madelene Stavnar	0.19%	526	201		93
Magdalena Simmermacher	0.20%	500	161		118
Maha Haddioui	0.79%	127	111		60
Maria Parra	0.11%	909	301		103
Maria Vittoria Corbi	0.16%	625	76		16
Marianne Skarpnord	0.52%	192	101		50
Marta Martin	0.43%	233	126		24
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.16%	625	251		113
Meghan MacLaren	0.74%	135	76		7
Michaela Vavrova	0.26%	385	126		125
Moa Folke	1.29%	78	41		33
Momoka Kobori	0.50%	200	91		16
Morgane Metraux	1.88%	53	46		1
Nadia Van Der Westhuizen	0.06%	1667	201		1
Napat Lertsadwattana	0.90%	111	91		50
Nobuhle Dlamini	0.22%	455	251		118
Noora Komulainen	1.46%	68	46		60
Olivia Mehaffey	0.26%	385	251		103
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.73%	137	126		77
Patricie Mackova	0.60%	167	151		93
Pia Babnik	1.38%	72	34		7
Pranavi Urs	1.36%	74	67		33
Roberta Liti	2.07%	48	46		50
Romy Meekers	0.48%	208	151		33
Sanna Nuutinen	0.19%	526	151		60
Sara Byrne	1.18%	85	76		60
Sarah Kemp	1.38%	72	56		77
Savannah De Bock	0.50%	200	91		93
Shannon Tan	3.74%	27	17		77
Smilla Tarning Soenderby	1.51%	66	41		60
Sofie Kibsgaard	0.76%	132	67		24
Soomin Oh	2.54%	39	23		24
Sophie Bert	0.06%	1667	251		24
Sophie Witt	0.22%	455	126		93
Stephanie Bunque	0.43%	233	151		103
Tereza Melecka	0.27%	370	161		118
Thalia Martin	0.43%	233	201		50
Tina Mazarino	0.31%	323	201		60
Trichat Cheenglab	0.97%	103	51		5
Ursula Wikstrom	0.63%	159	91		5
Vanessa Knecht	0.43%	233	101		77
Verena Gimmy	0.22%	455	251		60
Whitney Hillier	0.13%	769	251		103

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Aditi Ashok	5.81%	17	23	1.50%	3	4.5	Betway: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Caley McGinty	3.26%	31	51	1.30%	62	-2	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Roberta Liti	2.99%	33	51	1.00%	39	-2	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Amy Lee	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	118	-3	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.