Simulation Results: Aramco Houston Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adela Cernousek 0.53% 189 101 58
Agathe Sauzon 0.04% 2500 451 50
Alessandra Fanali 0.42% 238 67 12
Alessia Nobilio 0.03% 3333 501 21
Alexandra Forsterling 0.08% 1250 201 12
Alexandra Swayne 0.12% 833 401 62
Alice Hewson 2.05% 49 34 43
Aline Krauter 1.16% 86 91 0.10% 77 -0.1 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alison Lee 0.82% 122 41 53
Amelia Garvey 0.85% 118 51 36
Amy Taylor 0.02% 5000 601 28
Ana Belac 0.47% 213 161 43
Anna Huang 0.31% 323 501 0.10% 53 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anna Magnusson 0.08% 1250 401 82
Anna Zanusso 0.05% 2000 601 82
Annabel Wilson 0.03% 3333 501 98
Annabell Fuller 0.14% 714 226 21
Anne Van Dam 1.56% 64 29 50
April Angurasaranee 0.17% 588 401 21
Ariane Klotz 0.03% 3333 501 82
Ashley Lau 0.30% 333 101 21
Aunchisa Utama 0.11% 909 301 98
Avani Prashanth 0.08% 1250 351 74
Ayako Uehara 0.41% 244 151 77
Billie-Jo Smith 0.01% 10000 1001 57
Blanca Fernandez 0.04% 2500 351 62
Brianna Navarrosa 0.58% 172 111 62
Bronte Law 0.89% 112 71 92
Cara Gainer 1.58% 63 51 17
Carlota Ciganda 4.46% 22 26 0.60% 2 1.2 Boyle Sports: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Carolin Kauffmann 0.01% 10000 601 62
Casandra Alexander 2.36% 42 34 8
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen 0.02% 5000 751 62
Celine Boutier 16.34% 6.1 8 4.40% 5 -2.3833333333333 PaddyPower: 7/1, 5pl, 1/4
Celine Herbin 0.12% 833 276 36
Charley Hull 20.21% 4.9 6.5 5.70% 2 1.06875 Bet365: 5.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chiara Noja 0.05% 2000 226 82
Chiara Tamburlini 3.16% 32 19 8
Chloe Williams 0.41% 244 151 36
Daniela Darquea 1.92% 52 91 0.80% 36 -0.8 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danielle Kang 0.50% 200 301 0.20% 28 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darcey Harry 1.85% 54 46 8
Dorthea Forbrigd 0.11% 909 251 21
Eleanor Givens 0.05% 2000 451 43
Emma Spitz 0.61% 164 71 12
Esme Hamilton 0.00% 10000 301 62
Ginnie Ding 0.20% 500 201 98
Hannah Gregg 0.00% 10000 1501 97
Hannah Screen 0.60% 167 81 53
Helen Briem 0.71% 141 29 36
Kajsa Arwefjall 0.65% 154 81 62
Kelsey Bennett 0.73% 137 86 36
Kelsey Macdonald 0.00% 10000 1501 62
Kim Metraux 0.17% 588 111 43
Klara Davidson Spilkova 0.18% 556 176 28
Kristyna Napoleaova 0.05% 2000 401 21
Lakareber Abe 0.00% 10000 601 61
Laura Fuenfstueck 0.39% 256 71 62
Lauren Walsh 0.66% 152 81 43
Leonie Harm 0.42% 238 81 28
Lisa Pettersson 0.55% 182 101 62
Liz Young 0.08% 1250 501 28
Lorna Mcclymont 0.05% 2000 251 92
Luna Sobron Galmes 0.38% 263 71 12
Lydia Hall 0.36% 278 141 77
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard 0.78% 128 111 43
Magdalena Simmermacher 0.00% 10000 1001 82
Maha Haddioui 0.10% 1000 401 77
Manon De Roey 4.69% 21 26 0.90% 17 -0.9 Boyle Sports: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maria Hernandez 0.03% 3333 401 58
Marianne Skarpnord 0.01% 10000 1001 98
Marta Sanz Barrio 0.05% 2000 451 62
Megan Dennis 0.00% 10000 1001 89
Mimi Rhodes 3.71% 27 21 8
Moa Folke 0.78% 128 101 43
Momoka Kobori 0.54% 185 81 82
Muni He 1.34% 75 181 0.80% 28 -0.8 Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nastasia Nadaud 1.88% 53 41 5
Natacha Host Husted 0.01% 10000 601 74
Nuria Iturrioz 0.06% 1667 151 1
Olivia Cowan 1.74% 57 91 0.60% 28 -0.6 PaddyPower: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patricia Isabel Schmidt 0.08% 1250 176 17
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 1.78% 56 71 0.40% 17 -0.4 PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Perrine Delacour 3.86% 26 34 0.90% 5 1.38 Spreadex: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Pia Babnik 0.67% 149 56 28
Polly Mack 1.03% 97 101 12
Pranavi Urs 0.62% 161 126 50
Rosie Davies 0.01% 10000 1001 92
Sara Byrne 0.03% 3333 601 89
Sara Kouskova 0.89% 112 46 58
Sarah Kemp 0.78% 128 226 0.30% 74 -0.3 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Shannon Tan 1.83% 55 23 4
Smilla Tarning Soenderby 0.23% 435 176 77
Sofie Bringner 0.00% 10000 601 103
Sofie Kibsgaard 0.40% 250 91 53
Teresa Toscano 0.11% 909 501 104
Thalia Martin 0.17% 588 176 98
Tina Mazarino 0.06% 1667 501 89
Trichat Cheenglab 0.35% 286 111 21
Tvesa Malik 0.00% 10000 1001 92
Ursula Wikstrom 0.03% 3333 601 62
Vanessa Bouvet 0.00% 10000 1001 92
Verena Gimmy 0.01% 10000 751 36
Virginia Elena Carta 0.06% 1667 301 82

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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