Simulation Results: German Masters

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Agathe Sauzon	0.17%	588	751		7
Alessia Nobilio	0.58%	172	176		91
Alexandra Forsterling	3.68%	27	16		3
Alice Hewson	3.17%	32	23		116
Amaia Latorre	0.39%	256	351	0.10%	40	-0.1	Unibet: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amelia Garvey	3.83%	26	21		32
Amy Lee	0.75%	133	401	0.50%	80	-0.5	Spreadex: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amy Taylor	0.15%	667	751		80
Ana Dawson	0.05%	2000	601		91
Ana Pelaez Trivino	1.49%	67	51		58
Andrea Grimberg Lignell	0.01%	10000	1001		95
Anna Foster	1.47%	68	71	0.10%	72	-0.1	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anna Huang	3.87%	26	18		3
Anna Ludvova	0.01%	10000	351		116
Anna Morgan	1.80%	56	46		53
Anna Zanusso	1.69%	59	56		37
Annabel Wilson	0.07%	1429	551		109
Anne-Charlotte Mora	0.04%	2500	601		80
Anne-Lise Caudal	0.01%	10000	1001		121
Annika Borrelli	0.19%	526	751	0.10%	65	-0.1	Spreadex: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
April Angurasaranee	0.30%	333	131		80
Ariane Klotz	0.09%	1111	501		47
Aunchisa Utama	0.28%	357	401		10
Avani Prashanth	0.34%	294	226		49
Ayako Uehara	0.35%	286	551	0.20%	65	-0.2	Spreadex: 550/1, 5pl, 1/4
Belinda Ji	0.05%	2000	1501		109
Blanca Fernandez	0.39%	256	176		25
Caitlyn Macnab	0.53%	189	141		44
Camille Chevalier	1.14%	88	111	0.20%	37	-0.2	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carolin Kauffmann	0.09%	1111	601		65
Casandra Alexander	6.33%	16	8		2
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.11%	909	1001		49
Celina Sattelkau	1.65%	61	34		25
Charlotte Heath	0.40%	250	301	0.10%	40	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlotte Liautier	0.26%	385	351		40
Chiara Horder	0.00%	10000	1001		109
Chiara Noja	0.23%	435	601	0.10%	3	7.45	Spreadex: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chloe Williams	0.38%	263	111		91
Constanza Guerrero	0.00%	10000	1001		128
Corinne Viden	0.55%	182	251	0.20%	80	-0.2	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniela Darquea	1.78%	56	91	0.70%	80	-0.7	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darcey Harry	0.79%	127	67		40
Dorthea Forbrigd	0.66%	152	141		13
Eleanor Givens	0.41%	244	601	0.20%	14	-0.2	Spreadex: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ellen Hume	0.12%	833	351		25
Emma Grechi	0.21%	476	601		65
Emma Spitz	1.45%	69	56		72
Esme Hamilton	1.22%	82	56		32
Esther Henseleit	9.61%	10	10		7
Fernanda Lira	0.15%	667	351		95
Ffion Tynan	0.22%	455	251		80
Florentyna Parker	0.05%	2000	1251		58
Gemma Clews	0.33%	303	201		14
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh	0.01%	10000	2001		103
Ginnie Ding	0.08%	1250	751		56
Gudrun Bjorgvinsdottir	0.04%	2500	601		95
Hannah Darling	0.00%	10000	1001		65
Hannah Karg	0.01%	10000	301		125
Hannah Screen	1.55%	65	91	0.50%	56	-0.5	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harang Lee	0.09%	1111	601		49
Helen Briem	7.23%	14	10.5		20
Jana Melichova	0.42%	238	201		130
Jess Baker	0.14%	714	501		109
Jessica Hall	0.05%	2000	301		95
Justice Bosio	0.33%	303	226		14
Kaiyuree Moodley	0.00%	10000	1001		80
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.12%	833	501		72
Kelsey Bennett	1.29%	78	34		20
Kim Metraux	0.56%	179	226	0.10%	103	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Klara Davidson Spilkova	0.26%	385	451		65
Kristyna Napoleaova	1.09%	92	251	0.70%	60	-0.7	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Laura Beveridge	0.11%	909	501		62
Laura Fuenfstueck	0.45%	222	76		10
Lee-Anne Pace	0.88%	114	101		72
Leonie Harm	0.96%	104	36		1
Lianna Bailey	0.31%	323	501	0.10%	103	-0.1	Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lily May Humphreys	0.34%	294	301		37
Lisa Pettersson	1.93%	52	71	0.50%	91	-0.5	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Liz Young	0.23%	435	301		103
Lorna Mcclymont	0.05%	2000	751		109
Louise Rydqvist	0.07%	1429	601		25
Lovisa Gunnar	0.04%	2500			103
Luca Thompson	0.02%	5000	1001		32
Lucia Fohrmann	0.00%	10000	501		131
Lucie Vachova	0.09%	1111	751		72
Luna Sobron Galmes	1.36%	74	71		14
Lydia Hall	0.69%	145	141		72
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	1.60%	63	86	0.40%	7	-0.4	Spreadex: 85/1, 5pl, 1/4
Madelene Stavnar	0.17%	588	451		80
Magdalena Simmermacher	0.07%	1429	251		95
Maria Hernandez	0.15%	667	601		103
Maria Parra	0.10%	1000	501		109
Marianne Skarpnord	0.31%	323	501	0.10%	32	-0.1	Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.05%	2000	751		80
Matilde Partele	0.02%	5000	1001		95
Meghan MacLaren	0.43%	233	71		20
Mim Sangkapong	0.13%	769	351		116
Moa Folke	0.62%	161	141		109
Momoka Kobori	0.65%	154	126		121
Morgane Metraux	2.21%	45	56	0.40%	44	-0.4	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nadia Van Der Westhuizen	0.08%	1250	201		129
Noora Komulainen	2.13%	47	61	0.50%	47	-0.5	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Olivia Mehaffey	0.09%	1111	351		126
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.73%	137	126		65
Patricie Mackova	0.17%	588	451		25
Pia Babnik	2.07%	48	23		80
Pranavi Urs	0.99%	101	126	0.20%	72	-0.2	Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Roberta Liti	1.61%	62	67	0.10%	20	-0.1	Star Sports: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Romy Meekers	0.24%	417	551	0.10%	49	-0.1	Spreadex: 550/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rosanne Boere	0.00%	10000	601		126
Sanna Nuutinen	0.05%	2000	1001		25
Sara Byrne	0.25%	400	501	0.10%	95	-0.1	Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sara Kouskova	0.38%	263	176		10
Sarah Schober	0.07%	1429	801		119
Shannon Tan	5.28%	19	13		14
Smilla Tarning Soenderby	0.99%	101	81		14
Sofie Kibsgaard Nielsen	0.72%	139	86		6
Sophie Hausmann	0.76%	132	111		53
Sophie Witt	0.05%	2000	226		25
Stacy Bregman	0.02%	5000	1251		64
Stephanie Bunque	0.33%	303	301		72
Tereza Kozeluhova	0.01%	10000	1001		63
Tereza Melecka	0.24%	417	351		20
Thalia Kirby	0.00%	10000	801		119
Thalia Martin	0.26%	385	501	0.10%	44	-0.1	Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trichat Cheenglab	0.46%	217	71		60
Ursula Wikstrom	0.18%	556	351		53
Vanessa Bouvet	0.01%	10000	1251		95
Vanessa Knecht	0.50%	200	176		121
Vani Kapoor	0.04%	2500	801		132
Verena Gimmy	0.06%	1667	751		32
Whitney Hillier	0.05%	2000	601		121

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Daniela Darquea	1.78%	56	91	0.70%	80	-2	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Kristyna Napoleaova	1.09%	92	251	0.70%	60	-2	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Noora Komulainen	2.13%	47	61	0.50%	47	-2	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.