Simulation Results: Evian Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	1.33%	75	56		26
Aditi Ashok	0.48%	208	201		56
Agathe Laisne	0.00%	10000	401		79
Akie Iwai	1.53%	65	67		3
Alexa Pano	0.15%	667	501		103
Alexandra Forsterling	0.04%	2500	501		103
Alice Hewson	0.00%	10000	1001		125
Alison Lee	0.90%	111	56		41
Allisen Corpuz	1.84%	54	51		67
Amanda Doherty	0.02%	5000	501		79
Amy Yang	0.27%	370	226		15
Ana Belac	0.06%	1667	401		121
Andrea Lee	0.65%	154	151		22
Anna Huang	0.05%	2000	351		22
Anna Nordqvist	0.04%	2500	426		7
Aphrodite Deng	1.33%	75	201	0.80%	103	-0.8	888sport: 200/1, 7pl, 1/5
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.32%	313	201		16
Arpichaya Yubol	0.06%	1667	351		41
Ashleigh Buhai	0.02%	5000	1001		113
Asterisk Talley	0.76%	132	131		67
Auston Kim	1.01%	99	111	0.10%	9	-0.1	888sport: 110/1, 7pl, 1/5
Ayaka Furue	1.39%	72	51		53
Brianna Do	0.01%	10000	801		65
Brooke M. Henderson	1.41%	71	67		2
Brooke Matthews	0.04%	2500	501		113
Cara Gainer	0.02%	5000	226		41
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.03%	3333	501		90
Carlota Ciganda	0.09%	1111	201		113
Casandra Alexander	0.15%	667	151		10
Cassie Porter	0.33%	303	131		26
Celine Boutier	0.52%	192	71		90
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.10%	1000	401		121
Charley Hull	1.83%	55	41		16
Chella Choi	0.04%	2500	501		53
Chiara Tamburlini	0.03%	3333	401		61
Chisato Iwai	0.83%	120	67		67
Dewi Weber	0.13%	769	226		79
Erika Hara	0.12%	833	351		14
Esme Hamilton	0.00%	10000	601		125
Esther Henseleit	0.87%	115	101		79
Farah O'Keefe	0.44%	227	131		35
Frida Kinhult	0.02%	5000	551		90
Gabriela Ruffels	0.05%	2000	601		131
Gaby Lopez	3.49%	29	29		67
Gina Kim	0.02%	5000	751		103
Grace Kim	1.09%	92	101	0.10%	90	-0.1	Spreadex: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Haeran Ryu	7.14%	14	16	0.90%	1	8.4375	Unibet: 15/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hannah Green	0.89%	112	41		67
Helen Briem	0.08%	1250	151		90
Hinako Shibuno	0.04%	2500	601		16
Hye-Jin Choi	3.94%	25	41	1.50%	67	-1.5	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyo Joo Kim	2.97%	34	23		26
Hyunjo Yoo	3.38%	30	101	2.40%	103	-2.4	888sport: 100/1, 7pl, 1/5
Ina Yoon	2.51%	40	34		53
Ingrid Lindblad	0.01%	10000	1001		128
Isi Gabsa	0.01%	10000	751		79
Jeeno Thitikul	5.04%	20	13		10
Jennifer Kupcho	0.58%	172	67		16
Jenny Bae	0.18%	556	276		41
Jenny Shin	0.53%	189	226	0.10%	113	-0.1	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jin Hee Im	1.00%	100	81		4
Jin Young Ko	0.13%	769	161		119
Jing Yan	0.34%	294	276		35
Jiwon Jeon	0.05%	2000	701		90
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.07%	1429	351		35
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.09%	1111	351		67
Kajsa Arwefjall	0.01%	10000	501		41
Karis Davidson	0.74%	135	151	0.10%	26	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kelsey Bennett	0.04%	2500	176		79
Kiara Romero	0.48%	208	111		113
Kyorim Seo	0.97%	103	126	0.20%	67	-0.2	888sport: 125/1, 7pl, 1/5
Lauren Coughlin	0.39%	256	201		67
Lauren Kim	0.00%	10000	5001		64
Lauren Walsh	0.01%	10000	601		103
Leona Maguire	0.11%	909	351		90
Leonie Harm	0.00%	10000	1001		79
Lilia Vu	0.03%	3333	401		90
Lindy Duncan	0.26%	385	301		124
Linn Grant	0.12%	833	151		61
Lottie Woad	4.73%	21	26	0.90%	16	-0.9	888sport: 25/1, 7pl, 1/5
Lucy Li	0.09%	1111	501		103
Lydia Ko	1.58%	63	46		7
Maja Stark	0.50%	200	101		10
Manon De Roey	0.04%	2500	401		103
Mao Saigo	0.18%	556	151		4
Maria Marin	1.57%	64	91	0.50%	57	-0.5	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mary Liu	0.11%	909	401		26
Megan Khang	0.14%	714	201		90
Melanie Green	0.06%	1667	351		59
Mi Hyang Lee	0.14%	714	401		90
Mimi Rhodes	0.06%	1667	401		119
Minami Katsu	0.83%	120	101		26
Minjee Lee	1.06%	94	56		129
Minji Kang	0.15%	667	176		35
Miranda Wang	0.00%	10000	1251		129
Miyu Yamashita	6.94%	14	16	0.70%	4	0.40833333333333	Unibet: 15/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.74%	135	176	0.20%	59	-0.2	888sport: 175/1, 7pl, 1/5
Narin An	0.09%	1111	5001	0.10%	125	-0.1	Bresbet: 5000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nasa Hataoka	3.14%	32	29		132
Nastasia Nadaud	0.12%	833	351		22
Nataliya Guseva	0.11%	909	351		26
Nelly Korda	8.80%	11	5.5		67
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.38%	263	176		35
Patty Tavatanakit	0.85%	118	71		26
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.01%	10000	1001		50
Perrine Delacour	0.19%	526	301		50
Polly Mack	0.00%	10000	501		90
Pornanong Phatlum	0.06%	1667	501		121
Rio Takeda	1.29%	78	67		79
Robyn Choi	0.10%	1000	351		79
Rose Zhang	0.39%	256	101		41
Ruoning Yin	1.80%	56	21		26
Ryann O'Toole	0.06%	1667	351		63
Sara Kouskova	0.00%	10000	1001		57
Sayaka Takahashi	0.16%	625	351		90
Sei Young Kim	2.86%	35	34		22
Shannon Tan	0.09%	1111	176		16
Shiho Kuwaki	0.91%	110	56		41
Shuri Sakuma	0.36%	278	176		35
Somi Lee	1.88%	53	41		10
Soo Bin Joo	0.04%	2500	751		41
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.03%	3333	1251		67
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.09%	1111	301		50
Weiwei Zhang	0.09%	1111	451		79
Yan Liu	0.39%	256	161		113
Yealimi Noh	0.03%	3333	551		67
Youmin Hwang	0.52%	192	151		90
Yu Liu	0.08%	1250	401		103
Yuka Saso	0.01%	10000	1001		65
Yun Seo Yang	0.02%	5000	251		41
Yuna Nishimura	0.05%	2000	751		79
Yuri Yoshida	0.15%	667	301		103

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	1.05%	95	67		58
Aditi Ashok	0.58%	172	126		35
Agathe Laisne	0.05%	2000	151		87
Akie Iwai	1.87%	53	67	0.40%	1	15.84	BetVictor: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alexa Pano	0.48%	208	151		35
Alexandra Forsterling	0.21%	476	201		58
Alice Hewson	0.01%	10000	251		123
Alison Lee	0.88%	114	67		20
Allisen Corpuz	2.15%	47	67	0.70%	69	-0.7	BetVictor: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Amanda Doherty	0.10%	1000	201		69
Amy Yang	0.40%	250	126		35
Ana Belac	0.16%	625	176		102
Andrea Lee	1.17%	85	101	0.20%	35	-0.2	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anna Huang	0.27%	370	126		35
Anna Nordqvist	0.27%	370	176		20
Aphrodite Deng	1.67%	60	111	0.80%	69	-0.8	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.70%	143	111		35
Arpichaya Yubol	0.18%	556	151		35
Ashleigh Buhai	0.07%	1429	301		115
Asterisk Talley	0.80%	125	101		35
Auston Kim	0.85%	118	91		35
Ayaka Furue	1.11%	90	67		15
Brianna Do	0.05%	2000	251		69
Brooke M. Henderson	1.78%	56	67	0.30%	8	-0.3	Spreadex: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brooke Matthews	0.22%	455	201		69
Cara Gainer	0.10%	1000	126		8
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.15%	667	201		87
Carlota Ciganda	0.38%	263	126		69
Casandra Alexander	0.47%	213	91		87
Cassie Porter	0.49%	204	91		20
Celine Boutier	0.58%	172	67		118
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.24%	417	176		128
Charley Hull	1.27%	79	51		3
Chella Choi	0.20%	500	201		15
Chiara Tamburlini	0.14%	714	151		58
Chisato Iwai	0.81%	123	67		35
Dewi Weber	0.29%	345	126		58
Erika Hara	0.40%	250	151		8
Esme Hamilton	0.03%	3333	201		131
Esther Henseleit	0.76%	132	81		69
Farah O'Keefe	0.86%	116	91		15
Frida Kinhult	0.07%	1429	201		87
Gabriela Ruffels	0.13%	769	201		128
Gaby Lopez	2.99%	33	41	0.60%	87	-0.6	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gina Kim	0.09%	1111	201		115
Grace Kim	0.94%	106	81		87
Haeran Ryu	4.88%	20	29	1.50%	3	1.47	Skybet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/5
Hannah Green	0.87%	115	51		35
Helen Briem	0.39%	256	101		87
Hinako Shibuno	0.13%	769	201		20
Hye-Jin Choi	2.32%	43	51	0.40%	58	-0.4	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyo Joo Kim	1.80%	56	34		20
Hyunjo Yoo	2.13%	47	81	0.90%	102	-0.9	Betfred: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ina Yoon	2.49%	40	41	0.10%	20	-0.1	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ingrid Lindblad	0.08%	1250	251		128
Isi Gabsa	0.12%	833	251		87
Jeeno Thitikul	2.64%	38	26		69
Jennifer Kupcho	1.05%	95	67		20
Jenny Bae	0.46%	217	126		118
Jenny Shin	0.64%	156	126		115
Jin Hee Im	1.47%	68	71	0.10%	3	0.455	Spreadex: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jin Young Ko	0.45%	222	101		102
Jing Yan	0.75%	133	126		8
Jiwon Jeon	0.29%	345	201		87
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.20%	500	151		20
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.25%	400	151		69
Kajsa Arwefjall	0.07%	1429	201		20
Karis Davidson	0.80%	125	101		35
Kelsey Bennett	0.22%	455	101		102
Kiara Romero	0.93%	108	81		102
Kyorim Seo	1.40%	71	91	0.30%	102	-0.3	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lauren Coughlin	0.55%	182	111		58
Lauren Kim	0.01%	10000	251		35
Lauren Walsh	0.07%	1429	201		87
Leona Maguire	0.21%	476	151		58
Leonie Harm	0.02%	5000	251		87
Lilia Vu	0.16%	625	176		69
Lindy Duncan	0.61%	164	141		87
Linn Grant	0.39%	256	101		20
Lottie Woad	3.58%	28	36	0.80%	8	-0.8	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucy Li	0.21%	476	201		102
Lydia Ko	1.22%	82	56		20
Maja Stark	0.58%	172	101		3
Manon De Roey	0.20%	500	151		102
Mao Saigo	0.51%	196	101		3
Maria Marin	1.21%	83	81		102
Mary Liu	0.37%	270	161		35
Megan Khang	0.26%	385	126		58
Melanie Green	0.33%	303	151		58
Mi Hyang Lee	0.44%	227	176		58
Mimi Rhodes	0.14%	714	151		118
Minami Katsu	0.86%	116	91		35
Minjee Lee	1.49%	67	56		123
Minji Kang	0.29%	345	101		8
Miranda Wang	0.04%	2500	301		123
Miyu Yamashita	4.94%	20	29	1.50%	35	-1.5	BetVictor: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.75%	133	111		69
Narin An	0.19%	526	151		123
Nasa Hataoka	1.88%	53	41		131
Nastasia Nadaud	0.25%	400	151		15
Nataliya Guseva	0.36%	278	151		35
Nelly Korda	5.66%	18	15		102
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.49%	204	111		87
Patty Tavatanakit	1.25%	80	67		35
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.08%	1250	251		102
Perrine Delacour	0.33%	303	141		2
Polly Mack	0.06%	1667	201		102
Pornanong Phatlum	0.13%	769	201		118
Rio Takeda	1.06%	94	67		69
Robyn Choi	0.39%	256	151		87
Rose Zhang	0.89%	112	81		35
Ruoning Yin	2.03%	49	34		8
Ryann O'Toole	0.28%	357	151		20
Sara Kouskova	0.05%	2000	251		69
Sayaka Takahashi	0.52%	192	151		58
Sei Young Kim	1.85%	54	46		20
Shannon Tan	0.37%	270	101		20
Shiho Kuwaki	1.36%	74	56		35
Shuri Sakuma	0.79%	127	101		35
Somi Lee	1.40%	71	51		15
Soo Bin Joo	0.28%	357	201		69
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.09%	1111	301		118
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.17%	588	126		20
Weiwei Zhang	0.34%	294	176		35
Yan Liu	0.54%	185	126		123
Yealimi Noh	0.21%	476	201		69
Youmin Hwang	0.91%	110	101		69
Yu Liu	0.16%	625	176		102
Yuka Saso	0.04%	2500	251		69
Yun Seo Yang	0.18%	556	126		69
Yuna Nishimura	0.23%	435	201		35
Yuri Yoshida	0.45%	222	151		87

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Hyunjo Yoo	3.38%	30	101	2.40%	103	-2	888sport: 100/1, 7pl, 1/5
WIN: Hye-Jin Choi	3.94%	25	41	1.50%	67	-2	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Haeran Ryu	7.14%	14	16	0.90%	1	18.75	Unibet: 15/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Haeran Ryu	4.88%	20	29	1.50%	3	0.98	Skybet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Miyu Yamashita	4.94%	20	29	1.50%	35	-1	BetVictor: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Hyunjo Yoo	2.13%	47	81	0.90%	102	-1	Betfred: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Lottie Woad	3.58%	28	36	0.80%	8	-1	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Aphrodite Deng	1.67%	60	111	0.80%	69	-1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Allisen Corpuz	2.15%	47	67	0.70%	69	-1	BetVictor: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.