Simulation Results: Evian Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 1.08% 93 71 93
Aditi Ashok 0.07% 1429 501 28
Akie Iwai 1.51% 66 51 75
Albane Valenzuela 0.27% 370 301 75
Alexa Pano 0.05% 2000 601 121
Alice Hewson 0.03% 3333 801 93
Aline Krauter 0.22% 455 301 43
Allisen Corpuz 0.31% 323 151 49
Amy Yang 0.29% 345 251 56
Andrea Lee 1.30% 77 61 5
Angel Yin 3.11% 32 34 0.20% 5 0.56 Spreadex: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Anna Nordqvist 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 107 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ariya Jutanugarn 0.90% 111 67 7
Arpichaya Yubol 0.18% 556 401 84
Ashleigh Buhai 0.34% 294 201 114
Auston Kim 0.93% 108 86 43
Ayaka Furue 1.79% 56 29 59
Azahara Munoz 0.13% 769 401 59
Benedetta Moresco 0.02% 5000 751 93
Brianna Do 0.04% 2500 751 59
Bronte Law 0.04% 2500 401 73
Brooke M. Henderson 1.98% 51 56 0.20% 31 -0.2 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brooke Matthews 0.22% 455 451 107
Cara Gainer 0.05% 2000 601 14
Carla Bernat 0.02% 5000 601 117
Carlota Ciganda 0.74% 135 67 84
Casandra Alexander 0.05% 2000 276 20
Cassie Porter 0.06% 1667 451 127
Celine Boutier 2.08% 48 34 21
Chanettee Wannasaen 1.15% 87 56 43
Charley Hull 3.89% 26 41 1.50% Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chiara Tamburlini 0.58% 172 111 121
Chisato Iwai 0.99% 101 56 14
Clarisa Temelo 0.00% 10000 1001 75
Darcey Harry 0.10% 1000 751 121
Dewi Weber 0.20% 500 301 84
Emily Kristine Pedersen 0.26% 385 326 11
Esther Henseleit 2.63% 38 46 0.50% 49 -0.5 Betfred: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gabriela Ruffels 0.34% 294 176 9
Gaby Lopez 0.52% 192 126 9
Gemma Dryburgh 0.46% 217 301 0.10% 49 -0.1 Betfred: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gianna Clemente 0.02% 5000 751 107
Gigi Stoll 0.01% 10000 1001 68
Grace Kim 0.45% 222 131 1
Haeji Kang 0.05% 2000 1001 70
Haeran Ryu 1.45% 69 26 114
Hannah Green 1.07% 93 81 117
Helen Briem 0.63% 159 61 56
Hinako Shibuno 0.15% 667 376 121
Hira Naveed 0.01% 10000 751 65
Hye-Jin Choi 6.23% 16 26 2.50% 14 -2.5 Skybet: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hyo Joo Kim 2.75% 36 36 31
Ilhee Lee 0.03% 3333 601 93
In Gee Chun 0.19% 526 276 75
Ina Yoon 1.22% 82 111 0.30% 65 -0.3 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ingrid Lindblad 0.24% 417 176 114
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.05% 2000 1001 31
Jeeno Thitikul 3.42% 29 12 2
Jeneath Wong 0.01% 10000 1251 84
Jennifer Kupcho 1.41% 71 61 11
Jenny Bae 0.16% 625 276 59
Jenny Shin 1.01% 99 141 0.30% 31 -0.3 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeongeun Lee5 0.07% 1429 501 38
Jin Hee Im 1.18% 85 71 38
Jin Young Ko 1.50% 67 46 35
Jing Yan 0.24% 417 501 107
Jiwon Jeon 0.13% 769 501 93
Julia Lopez Ramirez 0.10% 1000 276 28
Karis Davidson 0.30% 333 301 84
Kristen Gillman 0.33% 303 226 107
Kumkang Park 0.05% 2000 751 93
Lauren Coughlin 0.49% 204 86 84
Leona Maguire 0.26% 385 226 7
Lilia Vu 0.08% 1250 401 107
Lindy Duncan 0.85% 118 131 0.10% 66 -0.1 Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Linn Grant 1.44% 69 76 0.10% 75 -0.1 Spreadex: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lottie Woad 2.67% 37 41 0.20% 3 0.9 Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucy Li 0.51% 196 181 65
Lydia Ko 2.15% 47 26 93
Madelene Sagstrom 1.20% 83 111 0.30% 49 -0.3 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maha Haddioui 0.01% 10000 1501 93
Maja Stark 0.42% 238 151 84
Manon De Roey 0.21% 476 301 38
Mao Saigo 1.28% 78 46 38
Maria Marin 0.17% 588 401 70
Mary Liu 0.05% 2000 751 35
Megan Khang 1.21% 83 56 21
Mi Hyang Lee 0.57% 175 101 28
Mimi Rhodes 0.12% 833 276 93
Minami Katsu 0.41% 244 251 68
Minjee Lee 4.22% 24 17 3
Mirabel Ting 0.82% 122 226 0.40% 121 -0.4 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Miranda Wang 0.36% 278 201 93
Miyu Yamashita 1.71% 58 34 14
Morgane Metraux 0.21% 476 1001 0.10% 121 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Moriya Jutanugarn 0.05% 2000 751 127
Muni He 0.04% 2500 751 93
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 1.08% 93 141 0.40% 56 -0.4 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Narin An 0.23% 435 301 21
Nasa Hataoka 1.21% 83 71 59
Nastasia Nadaud 0.10% 1000 601 21
Nataliya Guseva 0.10% 1000 501 117
Nelly Korda 6.71% 15 15 43
Pajaree Anannarukarn 0.26% 385 351 49
Patty Tavatanakit 0.39% 256 126 43
Paula Reto 0.12% 833 551 38
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.38% 263 201 75
Peiyun Chien 0.19% 526 376 43
Perrine Delacour 0.39% 256 276 21
Rianne Mikhaela Malixi 0.00% 10000 1001 84
Rio Takeda 1.08% 93 34 11
Robyn Choi 0.10% 1000 401 75
Rose Zhang 0.28% 357 176 35
Ruixin Liu 0.15% 667 501 21
Ruoning Yin 1.68% 60 26 75
Ryann O'Toole 0.07% 1429 451 93
Saki Baba 0.25% 400 301 117
Sara Kouskova 0.11% 909 251 130
Sarah Schmelzel 0.83% 120 111 49
Sei Young Kim 0.69% 145 101 107
Shannon Tan 0.29% 345 86 59
Somi Lee 2.67% 37 31 14
Soo Bin Joo 0.06% 1667 451 130
Sophia Popov 0.02% 5000 1001 93
Stephanie Kyriacou 1.00% 100 101 14
Wei-Ling Hsu 0.39% 256 226 127
Weiwei Zhang 0.12% 833 401 70
Yan Liu 0.15% 667 551 93
Yealimi Noh 1.65% 61 36 75
Youmin Hwang 1.71% 58 96 0.70% 49 -0.7 Spreadex: 95/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yuka Saso 0.09% 1111 601 84
Yuri Yoshida 0.24% 417 276 21

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates