Simulation Results: Open de Espana Femenino

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aditi Ashok 8.10% 12 34 5.30% 11 -5.3 BetGoodwin: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adriana Garcia Terol 0.00% 10000 67 65
Agathe Sauzon 0.05% 2000 251 69
Alessandra Fanali 0.42% 238 81 7
Alessia Nobilio 0.43% 233 111 47
Alexandra Forsterling 0.66% 152 56 52
Alice Hewson 3.71% 27 26 25
Amaia Latorre 0.00% 10000 251 52
Amy Taylor 0.09% 1111 276 71
Ana Pelaez Trivino 0.20% 500 51 23
Andrea Revuelta 2.33% 43 13 15
Anna Foster 0.15% 667 301 34
Anna Huang 1.17% 85 26 11
Annabell Fuller 0.08% 1250 351 58
April Angurasaranee 0.04% 2500 501 65
Ariane Klotz 0.00% 10000 601 74
Aunchisa Utama 0.13% 769 401 25
Avani Prashanth 0.07% 1429 251 11
Ayako Uehara 0.06% 1667 351
Azahara Munoz 2.52% 40 36 16
Blanca Fernandez 0.10% 1000 226 43
Brianna Navarrosa 0.38% 263 91 30
Camille Chevalier 0.06% 1667 401 7
Cara Gainer 5.17% 19 23 0.90% 34 -0.9 Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlota Ciganda 20.20% 5 9 10.20% 16 -10.2 Bet365: 8/1, 5pl, 1/4
Celine Herbin 0.14% 714 301 16
Chloe Williams 0.60% 167 111 39
Daniela Darquea 2.72% 37 61 1.10% 47 -1.1 QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darcey Harry 1.26% 79 56 20
Diksha Dagar 0.49% 204 126 71
Dorthea Forbrigd 0.53% 189 111 3
Esme Hamilton 0.04% 2500 301 68
Ginnie Ding 0.01% 10000 601 71
Hannah Screen 0.32% 313 151 52
Harang Lee 0.00% 10000 751 62
Helen Briem 3.48% 29 19 34
Hitaashee Bakshi 0.24% 417 201 43
Kajsa Arwefjall 2.39% 42 31 25
Kelsey Bennett 1.54% 65 56 3
Kim Metraux 0.02% 5000 301 65
Kirsten Rudgeley 0.64% 156 41 2
Klara Davidson Spilkova 0.61% 164 101 39
Laura Fuenfstueck 0.14% 714 151 64
Lauren Holmey 0.00% 10000 751 75
Lauren Walsh 3.48% 29 34 0.60% 47 -0.6 Betfred: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee-Anne Pace 1.55% 65 51 58
Leonie Harm 1.04% 96 81 34
Lisa Pettersson 0.90% 111 91 25
Luna Sobron Galmes 0.78% 128 56 30
Lydia Hall 0.37% 270 151 20
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard 0.54% 185 111 20
Maha Haddioui 0.07% 1429 501 39
Maria Hernandez 0.01% 10000 751 52
Marta Martin 0.05% 2000 351 34
Marta Sanz Barrio 0.01% 10000 501 58
Mimi Rhodes 3.76% 27 15 7
Moa Folke 2.12% 47 67 0.60% 23 -0.6 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Momoka Kobori 0.15% 667 176 62
Nastasia Nadaud 2.20% 45 34 1
Noora Komulainen 0.43% 233 201 69
Nuria Iturrioz 0.42% 238 51 30
Olivia Cowan 3.55% 28 46 1.40% 3 5.03125 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patricia Isabel Schmidt 0.28% 357 151 43
Paula Martin Sampedro 4.07% 25 12 25
Perrine Delacour 4.02% 25 29 0.60% 3 1.2 Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pia Babnik 0.29% 345 73 43
Pranavi Urs 1.14% 88 67 47
Sara Byrne 0.14% 714 301 56
Sara Kouskova 0.69% 145 71 58
Sarah Kemp 0.46% 217 201 47
Shannon Tan 4.84% 21 13 16
Smilla Tarning Soenderby 0.71% 141 126 11
Sofie Kibsgaard 0.13% 769 151 56
Teresa Toscano 0.06% 1667 351 39
Trichat Cheenglab 0.46% 217 51 7

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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