Simulation Results: Dutch Ladies Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Agathe Laisne	2.92%	34	17		61
Agathe Sauzon	0.26%	385	251		59
Aine Donegan	0.53%	189	151		64
Alessandra Fanali	1.71%	58	41		27
Alessia Nobilio	0.47%	213	176		44
Alexandra Forsterling	4.74%	21	15		52
Alexandra Swayne	0.24%	417	501		52
Alice Hewson	1.17%	85	41		13
Alice Kong	0.55%	182	46		107
Amaia Latorre	0.34%	294	601	0.20%	96	-0.2	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amelia Garvey	2.22%	45	26		64
Amy Lee	0.85%	118	401	0.60%	44	-0.6	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amy Taylor	0.24%	417	1501	0.20%	35	-0.2	Betway: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ana Dawson	0.11%	909	601		112
Ana Pelaez Trivino	1.31%	76	29		27
Anna Foster	1.27%	79	101	0.30%	27	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Anna Morgan	2.33%	43	34		35
Anna Zanusso	1.30%	77	51		52
Annabell Fuller	0.84%	119	67		13
Anne Van Dam	0.34%	294	29		52
Anne-Sterre Den Dunnen	0.20%	500	101		52
Annika Borrelli	0.24%	417	601	0.10%	5	0.84375	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
April Angurasaranee	0.37%	270	111		64
Ariane Klotz	0.22%	455	201		35
Aunchisa Utama	0.90%	111	126	0.10%	1	7.8125	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Avani Prashanth	0.79%	127	141	0.10%	3	1.7	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ayako Uehara	0.74%	135	151	0.10%	44	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blanca Fernandez	0.88%	114	126	0.10%	35	-0.1	Betway: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brianna Navarrosa	2.58%	39	26		96
Caitlyn Macnab	0.82%	122	51		61
Camille Chevalier	0.50%	200	201		44
Canice Screene	0.35%	286	201		96
Cara Gorlei	0.43%	233	226		107
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.20%	500	601		27
Celina Sattelkau	1.52%	66	46		18
Charlotte Heath	0.70%	143	251	0.30%	18	-0.3	BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlotte Liautier	0.26%	385	401		83
Chiara Noja	1.04%	96	61		107
Chloe Williams	0.38%	263	126		5
Corinne Viden	0.35%	286	301		112
Danielle Du Toit	0.08%	1250	751
Darcey Harry	1.25%	80	81		96
Diksha Dagar	2.84%	35	21		3
Dorota Zalewska	0.28%	357	601	0.10%	18	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dorthea Forbrigd	2.08%	48	61	0.40%	2	2.8	Betway: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eleanor Givens	0.65%	154	276	0.30%	74	-0.3	Spreadex: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ellen Hume	0.06%	1667	351		68
Emma Falcher	0.19%	526	351		96
Emma Grechi	0.25%	400	401		75
Emma Spitz	1.04%	96	81		18
Esme Hamilton	1.28%	78	51		130
Fernanda Lira	0.06%	1667	501		44
Gemma Clews	0.84%	119	126		44
Georgia Hall	3.13%	32	21		44
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh	0.04%	2500	2501		5
Ginnie Ding	0.44%	227	226		35
Hannah Burke	0.23%	435	401		112
Hannah Darling	0.04%	2500	1001		130
Hannah Gregg	0.01%	10000	1001		96
Hannah Screen	1.66%	60	67	0.20%	5	0.01875	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harang Lee	0.21%	476	401		5
Hester Sicking	0.00%	10000	1001		75
Hitaashee Bakshi	0.15%	667	501		125
Hyeonji Kang	0.08%	1250	501		52
Jana Melichova	0.12%	833	201		130
Jess Baker	0.18%	556	401		35
Justice Bosio	0.51%	196	176		5
Kajsa Arwefjall	4.37%	23	13		90
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.16%	625	601		83
Kelsey Bennett	3.14%	32	21		118
Kelsey MacDonald	0.11%	909	751		96
Kirsten Rudgeley	1.73%	58	29		5
Kristyna Napoleaova	0.68%	147	201	0.20%	59	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee-Anne Pace	0.65%	154	251	0.30%	13	-0.3	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Leonie Harm	1.42%	70	36		52
Lianna Bailey	0.11%	909	751		96
Lily May Humphreys	0.29%	345	276		35
Lisa Pettersson	1.50%	67	67		13
Liz Young	0.22%	455	501		27
Lizzy Peeters	0.01%	10000	601		83
Lois Lau	0.82%	122	131	0.10%	96	-0.1	Spreadex: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Louisa Carlbom	0.07%	1429	401		83
Louise Rydqvist	0.21%	476	601		75
Louise Uma Landgraf	0.42%	238	31		107
Luca Thompson	0.06%	1667	601		112
Lucie Vachova	0.23%	435	401		118
Luna Sobron Galmes	1.90%	53	67	0.40%	83	-0.4	PaddyPower: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lydia Hall	0.84%	119	151	0.20%	18	-0.2	BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	1.19%	84	111	0.30%	44	-0.3	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Madelene Stavnar	0.11%	909	501		112
Magdalena Simmermacher	0.07%	1429	301		96
Maha Haddioui	1.37%	73	151	0.70%	75	-0.7	BetVictor: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maria Parra	0.05%	2000	1501		118
Marianne Skarpnord	0.23%	435	351		27
Marta Martin	0.08%	1250	1501		64
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.13%	769	501		118
Matilde Partele	0.04%	2500	1001		125
Meghan MacLaren	0.69%	145	91		27
Minouche Rooijmans	0.00%	10000	201		129
Moa Folke	0.69%	145	126		18
Momoka Kobori	0.37%	270	126		71
Morgane Metraux	2.68%	37	67	1.20%	32	-1.2	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nadia Van Der Westhuizen	0.02%	5000	351		71
Napat Lertsadwattana	1.08%	93	176	0.50%	75	-0.5	Betway: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Noa Van Beek	0.01%	10000	226		127
Nobuhle Dlamini	0.21%	476	601		118
Noora Komulainen	0.67%	149	91		61
Nuria Iturrioz	1.63%	61	36
Olivia Mehaffey	0.05%	2000	1001		96
Pasqualle Coffa	0.00%	10000	1001		128
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.72%	139	126		75
Patricie Mackova	0.31%	323	401	0.10%	75	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pia Babnik	1.35%	74	31		90
Pranavi Urs	1.04%	96	151	0.40%	5	0.5625	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Roberta Liti	2.34%	43	67	0.90%	35	-0.9	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Romy Meekers	0.19%	526	601		18
Sanna Nuutinen	0.07%	1429	601		90
Sara Byrne	0.86%	116	176	0.30%	18	-0.3	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sarah Kemp	1.96%	51	51		35
Sarah Schober	0.26%	385	501	0.10%	83	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Smilla Tarning Soenderby	1.34%	75	41		13
Sofie Kibsgaard	1.73%	58	51		75
Sophie Bert	0.01%	10000	751		118
Sophie Witt	0.10%	1000	226		18
Stephanie Bunque	0.74%	135	226	0.30%	112	-0.3	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tereza Melecka	0.34%	294	276		68
Thalia Martin	0.21%	476	501		27
Tina Mazarino	0.27%	370	401		71
Ursula Wikstrom	0.58%	172	176		90
Vanessa Knecht	0.27%	370	226		107
Verena Gimmy	0.17%	588	401		90
Whitney Hillier	0.03%	3333	601		68

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Agathe Laisne	1.88%	53	23		89
Agathe Sauzon	0.35%	286	126		58
Aine Donegan	0.99%	101	91		39
Alessandra Fanali	1.17%	85	41		1
Alessia Nobilio	0.52%	192	101		26
Alexandra Forsterling	2.39%	42	21		26
Alexandra Swayne	0.54%	185	251	0.10%	58	-0.1	Star Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alice Hewson	1.53%	65	31		89
Alice Kong	1.02%	98	34		121
Amaia Latorre	0.70%	143	226	0.30%	89	-0.3	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amelia Garvey	1.37%	73	34		77
Amy Lee	1.28%	78	201	0.80%	39	-0.8	Star Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Amy Taylor	0.30%	333	351		89
Ana Dawson	0.37%	270	181		39
Ana Pelaez Trivino	1.70%	59	34		58
Anna Foster	1.63%	61	81	0.40%	58	-0.4	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anna Morgan	2.48%	40	36		39
Anna Zanusso	1.04%	96	46		39
Annabell Fuller	0.68%	147	61		26
Anne Van Dam	0.38%	263	34		39
Anne-Sterre Den Dunnen	0.23%	435	67		108
Annika Borrelli	0.30%	333	226		5
April Angurasaranee	0.44%	227	81		26
Ariane Klotz	0.50%	200	101		89
Aunchisa Utama	0.75%	133	81		16
Avani Prashanth	0.68%	147	91		5
Ayako Uehara	1.19%	84	91	0.10%	16	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Belinda Ji	0.19%	526	201		89
Blanca Fernandez	0.75%	133	81		16
Brianna Navarrosa	1.59%	63	31		58
Caitlyn Macnab	1.33%	75	51		39
Camille Chevalier	0.49%	204	126		39
Canice Screene	0.66%	152	91		89
Cara Gorlei	0.73%	137	101		121
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.48%	208	226		26
Celina Sattelkau	1.06%	94	34		58
Charlotte Heath	0.62%	161	126		5
Charlotte Liautier	0.56%	179	141		89
Chiara Noja	1.47%	68	56		89
Chloe Williams	0.78%	128	81		5
Corinne Viden	0.38%	263	141		115
Danielle Du Toit	0.26%	385	301
Darcey Harry	0.92%	109	67		77
Diksha Dagar	1.74%	57	29		5
Dorota Zalewska	0.35%	286	226		26
Dorthea Forbrigd	2.35%	43	36		1
Eleanor Givens	1.13%	88	126	0.30%	39	-0.3	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ellen Hume	0.22%	455	141		77
Emma Falcher	0.23%	435	141		108
Emma Grechi	0.56%	179	181		39
Emma Spitz	0.83%	120	61		16
Esme Hamilton	1.02%	98	51		58
Fernanda Lira	0.28%	357	201		5
Gemma Clews	1.23%	81	81		39
Georgia Hall	1.82%	55	26		77
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh	0.08%	1250	751		26
Ginnie Ding	0.40%	250	111		58
Hannah Burke	0.51%	196	181		121
Hannah Darling	0.16%	625	301		127
Hannah Gregg	0.09%	1111	301		77
Hannah Screen	2.08%	48	56	0.30%	16	-0.3	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harang Lee	0.26%	385	181		16
Hester Sicking	0.02%	5000	301		58
Hitaashee Bakshi	0.43%	233	226		132
Hyeonji Kang	0.29%	345	181		26
Jana Melichova	0.17%	588	91		127
Jess Baker	0.46%	217	201		5
Justice Bosio	0.95%	105	111		26
Kajsa Arwefjall	3.81%	26	19		39
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.42%	238	226		115
Kelsey Bennett	1.78%	56	29		77
Kelsey MacDonald	0.17%	588	301		89
Kirsten Rudgeley	1.99%	50	26		16
Kristyna Napoleaova	1.13%	88	126	0.30%	26	-0.3	Star Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lee-Anne Pace	0.58%	172	126		5
Leonie Harm	1.10%	91	36		77
Lianna Bailey	0.36%	278	226		108
Lily May Humphreys	0.58%	172	126		16
Lisa Pettersson	1.83%	55	56		1
Liz Young	0.59%	169	226	0.10%	39	-0.1	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lizzy Peeters	0.06%	1667	181		89
Lois Lau	0.66%	152	81		26
Louisa Carlbom	0.30%	333	141		39
Louise Rydqvist	0.49%	204	226		26
Louise Uma Landgraf	0.46%	217	34		121
Luca Thompson	0.26%	385	251		58
Lucie Vachova	0.54%	185	201		89
Luna Sobron Galmes	1.32%	76	36		58
Lydia Hall	0.70%	143	61		89
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	1.54%	65	61		16
Madelene Stavnar	0.23%	435	226		108
Magdalena Simmermacher	0.14%	714	126		115
Maha Haddioui	1.00%	100	91		115
Maria Parra	0.19%	526	351		77
Marianne Skarpnord	0.51%	196	126		5
Marta Martin	0.17%	588	351		39
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.17%	588	226		125
Matilde Partele	0.08%	1250	301		89
Meghan MacLaren	1.14%	88	56		5
Minouche Rooijmans	0.01%	10000	91		127
Moa Folke	0.67%	149	81		58
Momoka Kobori	0.75%	133	81		39
Nadia Van Der Westhuizen	0.05%	2000	126		39
Napat Lertsadwattana	1.47%	68	111	0.60%	58	-0.6	Star Sports: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Noa Van Beek	0.03%	3333	111		131
Nobuhle Dlamini	0.54%	185	226	0.10%	115	-0.1	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Noora Komulainen	0.65%	154	67		77
Olivia Mehaffey	0.23%	435	301		1
Pasqualle Coffa	0.02%	5000	301		125
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.58%	172	81		77
Patricie Mackova	0.37%	270	181		58
Pia Babnik	0.95%	105	29		89
Pranavi Urs	0.80%	125	91		58
Roberta Liti	1.51%	66	56		26
Romy Meekers	0.28%	357	226		5
Sanna Nuutinen	0.29%	345	251		115
Sara Byrne	1.34%	75	101	0.40%	39	-0.4	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sarah Kemp	1.29%	78	46		58
Sarah Schober	0.59%	169	251	0.20%	89	-0.2	Star Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Smilla Tarning Soenderby	1.75%	57	41		58
Sofie Kibsgaard	1.19%	84	46		77
Sophie Bert	0.10%	1000	226		108
Sophie Witt	0.35%	286	111		16
Stephanie Bunque	0.62%	161	126		108
Tereza Melecka	0.32%	313	151		77
Thalia Martin	0.52%	192	226	0.10%	58	-0.1	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tina Mazarino	0.62%	161	181	0.10%	39	-0.1	Bet365: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ursula Wikstrom	0.53%	189	101		89
Vanessa Knecht	0.31%	323	101		89
Verena Gimmy	0.48%	208	181		89
Wenyung Keh	0.16%	625			127
Whitney Hillier	0.06%	1667	226		58

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Morgane Metraux	2.68%	37	67	1.20%	32	-2	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Roberta Liti	2.34%	43	67	0.90%	35	-2	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Maha Haddioui	1.37%	73	151	0.70%	75	-2	BetVictor: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Amy Lee	1.28%	78	201	0.80%	39	-1	Star Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Napat Lertsadwattana	1.47%	68	111	0.60%	58	-1	Star Sports: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Anna Foster	1.63%	61	81	0.40%	58	-1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Sara Byrne	1.34%	75	101	0.40%	39	-1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Hannah Screen	2.08%	48	56	0.30%	16	-1	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Eleanor Givens	1.13%	88	126	0.30%	39	-1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.