Simulation Results: Aramco China Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Agathe Sauzon 0.10% 1000 226 64
Alessandra Fanali 0.83% 120 51 98
Alexandra Forsterling 0.59% 169 67 47
Alice Hewson 1.99% 50 26 18
Alison Lee 0.43% 233 67 11
Amelia Garvey 1.47% 68 36 31
Amy Taylor 0.21% 476 251 73
Anna Foster 0.27% 370 226 73
Anna Huang 2.67% 37 21 59
Annabell Fuller 0.10% 1000 301 73
April Angurasaranee 0.22% 455 251 101
Aunchisa Utama 0.05% 2000 751 43
Avani Prashanth 0.09% 1111 141 79
Ayako Uehara 0.14% 714 201 93
Blanca Fernandez 0.01% 10000 451 18
Brianna Navarrosa 0.60% 167 71 47
Cara Gainer 3.14% 32 31
Casandra Alexander 2.71% 37 26 8
Celine Herbin 0.07% 1429 451 28
Charlotte Laffar 0.04% 2500 301 101
Chiara Tamburlini 5.36% 19 17 2
Ching Huang 3.50% 29 81 2.30% 52 -2.3 Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chloe Williams 0.15% 667 176 11
Chonlada Chayanun 0.13% 769 451 87
Daniela Darquea 1.28% 78 76 23
Danlin Cai 1.08% 93 601 0.90% 87 -0.9 Spreadex: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darcey Harry 0.42% 238 61 18
Diksha Dagar 0.28% 357 96 56
Dolnapa Zukphokinvanich 0.00% 10000 601 79
Dongmei Li 0.00% 10000 601 98
Dorthea Forbrigd 0.24% 417 161 23
Eleanor Givens 0.08% 1250 551 43
Emma Spitz 1.58% 63 51 28
Esme Hamilton 0.02% 5000 251 31
Ginnie Ding 0.02% 5000 551 95
Hannah Screen 0.43% 233 131 63
Helen Briem 2.64% 38 29 28
Jana Melichova 0.04% 2500 181 64
Jiaying He 0.00% 10000 1001 93
Jing Xuen Ng 0.01% 10000 601 31
Jingwen Zhang 0.00% 10000 601 98
Kajsa Arwefjall 0.94% 106 51 6
Kan Bunnabodee 0.12% 833 201 31
Kelsey Bennett 0.62% 161 67 13
Kelsey Macdonald 0.01% 10000 1001 64
Kim Metraux 0.03% 3333 176 79
Kirsten Rudgeley 0.81% 123 46 31
Kristyna Napoleaova 0.01% 10000 351 79
Kultida Pramphun 0.75% 133 301 0.40% 31 -0.4 Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Laura Fuenfstueck 0.12% 833 126 56
Lauren Walsh 2.92% 34 41 0.50% 31 -0.5 Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Liqi Zeng 0.80% 125 61 2
Lisa Pettersson 0.85% 118 101 31
Liz Young 0.10% 1000 181 52
Luna Sobron Galmes 0.63% 159 61 31
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard 0.67% 149 126 87
Maha Haddioui 0.06% 1667 326 52
Maria Hernandez 0.02% 5000 351 79
Marianne Skarpnord 0.02% 5000 601 79
Marta Martin 0.06% 1667 276 68
Marta Sanz Barrio 0.01% 10000 601 61
Menghan Li 2.26% 44 111 1.40% 13 -1.4 Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mimi Rhodes 2.53% 40 31 13
Moa Folke 0.63% 159 101 8
Momoka Kobori 0.24% 417 101 87
Muni He 0.97% 103 161 0.40% Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nanthikarn Rakasachat 1.87% 53 176 1.30% 62 -1.3 Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nastasia Nadaud 1.56% 64 26 23
Noora Komulainen 0.60% 167 161 68
Nuria Iturrioz 0.92% 109 36 68
Olivia Cowan 2.82% 35 67 1.30% 43 -1.3 William Hill: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patricia Isabel Schmidt 0.21% 476 151 56
Perrine Delacour 2.64% 38 31 13
Phisitkhwan Pooratanaopa 0.00% 10000 451 95
Pia Babnik 0.18% 556 61 68
Pranavi Urs 0.51% 196 111 31
Prima Thammaraks 0.00% 10000 451 79
Qianhui Lin 0.03% 3333 251 2
Rosie Davies 0.01% 10000 1001 103
Ruixin Liu 5.24% 19 26 1.40% 1 21.875 Unibet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Runzhi Pang 0.02% 5000 181 47
Ruoning Yin 15.95% 6.3 7.5 3.00% 6 -3 Unibet: 6.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sara Kouskova 0.32% 313 111 13
Shannon Tan 5.38% 19 17 23
Sherman Santiwiwattanaphong 0.02% 5000 201 31
Shiyuan Zhou 5.59% 18 41 3.20% 18 -3.2 Star Sports: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Smilla Tarning Soenderby 0.31% 323 176 23
Sofie Bringner 0.02% 5000 601 95
Supamas Sangchan 0.00% 10000 751 47
Teresa Lu 2.01% 50 201 1.50% 59 -1.5 Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trichat Cheenglab 0.17% 588 91 2
Tvesa Malik 0.01% 10000 1001 87
Ursula Wikstrom 0.07% 1429 251 47
Virginia Elena Carta 0.01% 10000 301 73
Wannasiri Sirisampant 0.17% 588 351 79
Xiang Sui 0.25% 400 101 43
Xinyu Cao 0.01% 10000 351 87
Xu Ying 0.00% 10000 8
Yijia Ren 0.71% 141 151 64
Yu Liu 2.31% 43 46 0.10% 31 -0.1 Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yujie Liu 0.87% 115 91 73
Yuli Shi 0.03% 3333 151 52
Zixuan Wang 0.06% 1667 226 68
Zixuan Xue 0.00% 10000 226 73

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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