Simulation Results: Women's Australian Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abbie Teasdale	0.00%	10000	1001		140
Agathe Laisne	1.07%	93	51		2
Agathe Sauzon	0.01%	10000	601		56
Aine Donegan	0.16%	625	126		129
Akari Hayashi	0.00%	10000	1001		125
Alessandra Fanali	0.69%	145	46		17
Alessia Nobilio	0.05%	2000	276		76
Alexandra Forsterling	0.44%	227	71		17
Alexandra Swayne	0.00%	10000	501		105
Alice Hewson	0.65%	154	56		29
Amalie Leth-Nissen	0.00%	10000	1001		133
Amelia Garvey	1.14%	88	36		34
Amelia Mehmet Grohn	0.00%	10000	1001		133
Amy Lee	0.00%	10000	1001		125
Amy Taylor	0.02%	5000	501		76
Ana Dawson	0.00%	10000	351		143
Andrea Grimberg Lignell	0.01%	10000	251		105
Anna Foster	0.11%	909	301		97
Anna Huang	1.55%	65	41		17
Anna Morgan	0.03%	3333	151		41
Anna Zanusso	0.08%	1250	251		105
Annabel Wilson	0.03%	3333	501		89
Annabell Fuller	0.07%	1429	251		10
Annika Borrelli	0.01%	10000	751		26
April Angurasaranee	0.19%	526	76		52
Arina Hayashi	0.39%	256	181		97
Ashley Lau	0.27%	370	151		76
Aunchisa Utama	0.05%	2000	501		34
Avani Prashanth	0.05%	2000	251		49
Ayako Uehara	0.04%	2500	601		26
Ayane Morita	0.01%	10000	501		89
Belinda Ji	0.01%	10000	601		68
Blanca Fernandez	0.04%	2500	151		21
Brianna Navarrosa	0.34%	294	151		114
Caitlyn Macnab	0.12%	833	151		89
Caley McGinty	5.16%	19	29	1.80%	114	-1.8	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Camille Chevalier	0.02%	5000	351		34
Cara Gainer	0.34%	294	71		49
Casandra Alexander	5.38%	19	19	0.10%	4	0.175	Bet365: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cassie Porter	2.61%	38	51	0.70%	2	3.15	Boyle Sports: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.00%	10000	751		105
Celina Sattelkau	0.02%	5000	56		76
Celine Herbin	0.40%	250	201		10
Charlotte Heath	0.28%	357	81		76
Chloe Williams	0.21%	476	151		34
Claire Shin	0.05%	2000	501		34
Corinne Viden	0.01%	10000	301		120
Daniela Darquea	1.22%	82	81		76
Danni Vasquez	0.00%	10000	301		125
Darcey Harry	0.41%	244	101		7
Diksha Dagar	0.63%	159	67		45
Dorota Zalewska	0.01%	10000	501		97
Ella Scaysbrook	0.03%	3333	126		76
Elmay Viking	0.00%	10000	1001		120
Emma Falcher	0.01%	10000	401		76
Emma Grechi	0.00%	10000	1001		56
Emma Spitz	0.84%	119	71		26
Esme Hamilton	0.05%	2000	226		41
Fernanda Lira	0.01%	10000	351		89
Gabriella Cowley	0.01%	10000	501		105
Gemma Clews	0.00%	10000	101		34
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh	0.00%	10000	2001		97
Ginnie Ding	0.00%	10000	1001		129
Godiva Kim	0.00%	10000	1001		45
Grace Kim	4.16%	24	17		10
Hanee Song	0.00%	10000	1001		76
Hannah Darling	0.00%	10000	351		97
Hannah Green	19.46%	5.1	6	3.40%	1	10.625	Skybet: 5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hannah Gregg	0.00%	10000	2001		129
Hannah Reeves	0.15%	667	81		41
Hannah Screen	0.15%	667	251		52
Harang Lee	0.01%	10000	501		68
Hazuki Kimura	0.01%	10000	251		64
Hitaashee Bakshi	0.02%	5000	501		76
Ikeba Hinata	0.04%	2500	176		60
Jana Melichova	0.03%	3333	351		7
Jazy Roberts	0.00%	10000	46		68
Jessica Bang	0.00%	10000	251		144
Jordan O'Brien	0.00%	10000	1001		114
Joy Chou	0.00%	10000	1001		141
Justice Bosio	0.01%	10000	151		60
Kaho Shuto	0.00%	10000	1001		133
Kajsa Arwefjall	1.04%	96	36		56
Karis Davidson	2.40%	42	51	0.40%	4	1.8	Boyle Sports: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.07%	1429	126		68
Kathryn Norris	0.00%	10000	176		89
Kelsey Bennett	2.54%	39	17		21
Kelsey Macdonald	0.01%	10000	501		68
Kim Metraux	0.01%	10000	501		114
Kirsten Rudgeley	0.26%	385	41		14
Klara Davidson Spilkova	0.13%	769	276		29
Kotono Fukaya	0.00%	10000	1001		125
Kristalle Blum	0.00%	10000	1001		76
Kristina Yoko	0.00%	10000	351		120
Laura Fuenfstueck	0.05%	2000	251		45
Leonie Harm	0.60%	167	71		17
Lily May Humphreys	0.08%	1250	251		76
Liyana Azizan Durisic	0.07%	1429	476		141
Luna Sobron Galmes	0.16%	625	151		89
Lydia Hall	0.26%	385	126		34
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	0.34%	294	151		29
Madoka Kimura	0.00%	10000	351		105
Magdalena Simmermacher	0.00%	10000	1001		6
Maha Haddioui	0.09%	1111	351		23
Maria Parra	0.00%	10000	301		129
Marta Martin	0.01%	10000	351		55
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.00%	10000	1001		63
Matilde Partele	0.01%	10000	751		120
Meghan MacLaren	0.06%	1667	126		60
Miki Nishiyama	0.00%	10000	1001		114
Mina Yoon	0.07%	1429	351		76
Minjee Lee	31.74%	3.2	5	14.70%	29	-14.7	Ladbrokes: 4/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mio Kotaki	0.07%	1429	181		68
Moa Folke	0.30%	333	101		14
Momoka Kobori	0.09%	1111	251		7
Morgane Metraux	0.19%	526	201		23
Noora Komulainen	0.23%	435	251		23
Paris Hilinski	0.00%	10000	1501		133
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.09%	1111	276		52
Patricie Mackova	0.18%	556	226		49
Pia Babnik	0.45%	222	81		41
Pranavi Urs	0.36%	278	151		97
Rachel Lee	0.00%	10000	351		105
Raegan Denton	0.03%	3333	126		89
Rebekah Blackwell-Chin	0.00%	10000	401		120
Rhianna Lewis	0.00%	10000	1251		105
Roberta Liti	1.03%	97	101		45
Sara Kouskova	0.24%	417	126		89
Sarah Kemp	1.69%	59	41		68
Shannon Tan	1.84%	54	34		10
Smilla Tarning Soenderby	0.09%	1111	151		64
Sofie Kibsgaard Nielsen	0.06%	1667	151		97
Stefanie Hall	0.00%	10000	1001		139
Stephanie Bunque	0.15%	667	401		14
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.32%	313	34		133
Su Oh	0.00%	10000	501		133
Thalia Martin	0.01%	10000	751		114
Trichat Cheenglab	0.72%	139	71		56
Vanessa Knecht	0.00%	10000	1001		29
Vani Kapoor	0.01%	10000	351		66
Wenyung Keh	0.00%	10000	1001		105
Whitney Hillier	0.00%	10000	351		67
Yurina Hiroyoshi	2.57%	39	81	1.40%	68	-1.4	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abbie Teasdale	0.01%	10000	201		128
Agathe Laisne	1.65%	61	56		4
Agathe Sauzon	0.08%	1250	201		84
Aine Donegan	0.44%	227	91		120
Akari Hayashi	0.00%	10000	251		120
Alessandra Fanali	1.24%	81	46		4
Alessia Nobilio	0.24%	417	126		66
Alexandra Forsterling	1.11%	90	51		2
Alexandra Swayne	0.06%	1667	201		107
Alice Hewson	0.94%	106	56		24
Amalie Leth-Nissen	0.00%	10000	251		114
Amelia Garvey	1.51%	66	41		35
Amelia Mehmet Grohn	0.03%	3333	251		98
Amy Lee	0.09%	1111	201		107
Amy Taylor	0.16%	625	176		66
Ana Dawson	0.02%	5000	176		144
Andrea Grimberg Lignell	0.10%	1000	126		128
Anna Foster	0.36%	278	126		84
Anna Huang	2.13%	47	41		14
Anna Morgan	0.15%	667	111		3
Anna Zanusso	0.32%	313	141		35
Annabel Wilson	0.13%	769	201		98
Annabell Fuller	0.30%	333	141		4
Annika Borrelli	0.08%	1250	251		84
April Angurasaranee	0.60%	167	56		35
Arina Hayashi	0.79%	127	81		84
Ashley Lau	0.59%	169	101		114
Aunchisa Utama	0.28%	357	141		14
Avani Prashanth	0.22%	455	101		98
Ayako Uehara	0.22%	455	201		52
Ayane Morita	0.08%	1250	226		66
Belinda Ji	0.10%	1000	201		52
Blanca Fernandez	0.29%	345	111		14
Brianna Navarrosa	0.62%	161	81		120
Caitlyn Macnab	0.42%	238	101		84
Caley McGinty	3.73%	27	36	1.00%	107	-1	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Camille Chevalier	0.18%	556	151		52
Cara Gainer	0.81%	123	61		66
Casandra Alexander	3.87%	26	29	0.40%	35	-0.4	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cassie Porter	2.32%	43	36		24
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.09%	1111	251		107
Celina Sattelkau	0.15%	667	51		52
Celine Herbin	0.96%	104	91		4
Charlotte Heath	0.59%	169	81		35
Chloe Williams	0.71%	141	91		35
Claire Shin	0.27%	370	141		24
Corinne Viden	0.08%	1250	201		114
Daniela Darquea	1.83%	55	67	0.30%	24	-0.3	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danni Vasquez	0.01%	10000	141		128
Darcey Harry	0.91%	110	71		1
Diksha Dagar	1.20%	83	56		24
Dorota Zalewska	0.06%	1667	141		120
Ella Scaysbrook	0.14%	714	91		66
Elmay Viking	0.00%	10000	251		128
Emma Falcher	0.12%	833	176		66
Emma Grechi	0.06%	1667	201		14
Emma Spitz	1.54%	65	56		4
Esme Hamilton	0.25%	400	126		52
Fernanda Lira	0.07%	1429	151		66
Gabriella Cowley	0.10%	1000	176		66
Gemma Clews	0.06%	1667	126		35
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh	0.02%	5000	401		98
Ginnie Ding	0.04%	2500	251		128
Godiva Kim	0.05%	2000	251		35
Grace Kim	3.27%	31	21		66
Hanee Song	0.04%	2500	226		66
Hannah Darling	0.01%	10000	151		66
Hannah Green	11.60%	8.6	14	4.80%	10	-4.8	Spreadex: 13/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hannah Gregg	0.01%	10000	401		137
Hannah Reeves	0.44%	227	61		35
Hannah Screen	0.55%	182	101		35
Harang Lee	0.07%	1429	201		52
Hazuki Kimura	0.09%	1111	101		98
Hitaashee Bakshi	0.13%	769	141		98
Ikeba Hinata	0.27%	370	91		52
Jana Melichova	0.15%	667	151		52
Jazy Roberts	0.00%	10000	46		98
Jessica Bang	0.03%	3333	151		120
Jordan O'Brien	0.05%	2000	251		128
Joy Chou	0.01%	10000	251		143
Justice Bosio	0.12%	833	151		52
Kaho Shuto	0.00%	10000	251		137
Kajsa Arwefjall	1.36%	74	36		52
Karis Davidson	2.74%	36	36		24
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.31%	323	101		84
Kathryn Norris	0.01%	10000	151		120
Kelsey Bennett	2.90%	34	26		4
Kelsey Macdonald	0.11%	909	151		84
Kim Metraux	0.12%	833	141		66
Kirsten Rudgeley	0.55%	182	36		24
Klara Davidson Spilkova	0.53%	189	111		66
Kotono Fukaya	0.03%	3333	201		84
Kristalle Blum	0.01%	10000	251		84
Kristina Yoko	0.02%	5000	151		128
Laura Fuenfstueck	0.30%	333	101		35
Leonie Harm	0.99%	101	56		10
Lily May Humphreys	0.25%	400	126		35
Liyana Azizan Durisic	0.38%	263	141		137
Luna Sobron Galmes	0.49%	204	101		52
Lydia Hall	0.71%	141	81		14
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	0.81%	123	91		14
Madoka Kimura	0.02%	5000	151		120
Magdalena Simmermacher	0.02%	5000	251		10
Maha Haddioui	0.28%	357	141		66
Maria Parra	0.04%	2500	141		137
Marta Martin	0.15%	667	176		24
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.05%	2000	251		35
Matilde Partele	0.09%	1111	251		137
Meghan MacLaren	0.27%	370	71		84
Miki Nishiyama	0.00%	10000	251		120
Mina Yoon	0.25%	400	141		84
Minjee Lee	16.21%	6.2	12	8.60%	24	-8.6	Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mio Kotaki	0.34%	294	176		66
Moa Folke	0.80%	125	71		14
Momoka Kobori	0.38%	263	141		35
Morgane Metraux	0.48%	208	101		10
Nayeon Eum	0.06%	1667	251		35
Noora Komulainen	0.54%	185	111		14
Paris Hilinski	0.00%	10000	351		107
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.40%	250	126		52
Patricie Mackova	0.43%	233	91		52
Pia Babnik	1.02%	98	61		66
Pranavi Urs	0.72%	139	91		107
Rachel Lee	0.02%	5000	176		128
Raegan Denton	0.20%	500	81		66
Rebekah Blackwell-Chin	0.01%	10000	141		114
Rhianna Lewis	0.07%	1429	351		66
Roberta Liti	1.67%	60	71	0.30%	98	-0.3	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sara Kouskova	0.53%	189	71		84
Sarah Kemp	1.89%	53	56	0.10%	14	-0.1	Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Shannon Tan	2.36%	42	36		14
Smilla Tarning Soenderby	0.27%	370	91		98
Sofie Kibsgaard Nielsen	0.30%	333	111		84
Stefanie Hall	0.00%	10000	251		137
Stephanie Bunque	0.42%	238	176		24
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.65%	154	36		128
Su Oh	0.02%	5000	201		114
Thalia Martin	0.05%	2000	251		114
Trichat Cheenglab	1.03%	97	51		35
Vanessa Knecht	0.02%	5000	251		84
Vani Kapoor	0.10%	1000	176		24
Wenyung Keh	0.03%	3333	251		107
Whitney Hillier	0.07%	1429	176		35
Yurina Hiroyoshi	2.76%	36	56	1.00%	52	-1	Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Minjee Lee	31.74%	3.2	5	14.70%	29	-2	Ladbrokes: 4/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Hannah Green	19.46%	5.1	6	3.40%	1	6.25	Skybet: 5/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Caley McGinty	5.16%	19	29	1.80%	114	-2	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Minjee Lee	16.21%	6.2	12	8.60%	24	-1	Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Hannah Green	11.60%	8.6	14	4.80%	10	-1	Spreadex: 13/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Caley McGinty	3.73%	27	36	1.00%	107	-1	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Yurina Hiroyoshi	2.76%	36	56	1.00%	52	-1	Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Casandra Alexander	3.87%	26	29	0.40%	35	-1	Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Daniela Darquea	1.83%	55	67	0.30%	24	-1	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.