Simulation Results: Australian WPGA Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abbie Teasdale	0.01%	10000	1001		129
Agathe Laisne	4.21%	24	26	0.40%	79	-0.4	Spreadex: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Agathe Sauzon	0.11%	909	451		92
Aine Donegan	0.31%	323	131		55
Alessandra Fanali	2.27%	44	36		18
Alessia Nobilio	0.29%	345	301		54
Alexandra Forsterling	2.03%	49	41		2
Alexandra Swayne	0.06%	1667	1001		59
Alice Hewson	1.62%	62	34		36
Amaia Latorre	0.12%	833	351		48
Amalie Leth-Nissen	0.00%	10000	1251		121
Amelia Garvey	2.24%	45	34		5
Amelia Mehmet Grohn	0.01%	10000	1001		105
Amy Lee	0.05%	2000	1001		79
Amy Taylor	0.15%	667	601		27
Amy Walsh	0.00%	10000	1501		79
Ana Dawson	0.01%	10000	1001		36
Andrea Grimberg Lignell	0.06%	1667	351		101
Anna Huang	3.69%	27	23		55
Anna Morgan	0.33%	303	111		9
Anna Zanusso	0.31%	323	301		16
Annabel Wilson	0.20%	500	451		47
Annabell Fuller	0.58%	172	71		7
Annika Borrelli	0.25%	400	451		92
Ariane Klotz	0.01%	10000	601		109
Arina Hayashi	0.44%	227	151		69
Ashley Lau	0.56%	179	161		87
Aunchisa Utama	0.42%	238	301	0.10%	41	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ayako Uehara	0.38%	263	451	0.20%	69	-0.2	Spreadex: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ayane Morita	0.08%	1250	501		92
Belinda Ji	0.07%	1429	801		92
Billie-Jo Smith	0.01%	10000	1001		59
Blanca Fernandez	0.54%	185	111		41
Caitlyn Macnab	0.25%	400	161		55
Caley McGinty	3.49%	29	26		18
Camille Chevalier	0.29%	345	251		18
Casandra Alexander	8.12%	12	10		2
Cecilie Finne-Ipsen	0.05%	2000	1001		117
Celina Sattelkau	0.23%	435	81		27
Celine Herbin	1.77%	56	111	0.90%	48	-0.9	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlotte Heath	0.67%	149	91		41
Cholcheva Wongras	4.05%	25	51	2.10%	87	-2.1	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Corinne Viden	0.04%	2500	501		9
Danni Vasquez	0.00%	10000	1001		87
Darcey Harry	2.06%	49	31		79
Diksha Dagar	1.34%	75	67		7
Dorota Zalewska	0.04%	2500	601		92
Ella Scaysbrook	0.12%	833	151		92
Elmay Viking	0.00%	10000	1501		115
Emma Falcher	0.04%	2500	601		41
Emma Grechi	0.11%	909	601		69
Esme Hamilton	0.50%	200	201		30
Fernanda Lira	0.04%	2500	501		61
Gabriella Cowley	0.05%	2000	801		131
Gemma Clews	0.12%	833	126		18
Georgia Clarke	0.00%	10000	1501		128
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh	0.01%	10000	1501		117
Godiva Kim	0.13%	769	601		109
Grace Lennon	0.00%	10000	1501		126
Hanee Song	0.03%	3333	1001		123
Hannah Green	17.97%	5.6	4		1
Hannah Gregg	0.00%	10000	1501		41
Hannah Reeves	0.71%	141	61		18
Harang Lee	0.05%	2000	751		36
Hazuki Kimura	0.07%	1429	251		67
Hitaashee Bakshi	0.12%	833	401		9
Ikeba Hinata	0.14%	714	351		105
Jazy Roberts	0.18%	556	51		30
Jessica Bang	0.00%	10000	1001		126
Jordan O'Brien	0.02%	5000	1501		79
Joy Chou	0.00%	10000	1001		109
Justice Bosio	0.15%	667	141		68
Kajsa Arwefjall	1.59%	63	36		18
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.17%	588	151		79
Kelsey Bennett	3.96%	25	13		48
Kelsey Macdonald	0.06%	1667	601		41
Kim Metraux	0.09%	1111	601		105
Kirsten Rudgeley	1.83%	55	19		30
Klara Davidson Spilkova	0.71%	141	161	0.10%	87	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kotono Fukaya	0.01%	10000	1001		87
Kristalle Blum	0.01%	10000	1001		109
Kristina Yoko	0.00%	10000	601		63
Leonie Harm	2.01%	50	41		24
Lily May Humphreys	0.22%	455	251		79
Liyana Azizan Durisic	0.06%	1667	1001		36
Luca Thompson	0.03%	3333	501		117
Lucie Vachova	0.01%	10000	1001		65
Luna Sobron Galmes	0.44%	227	226		24
Lydia Hall	0.87%	115	86		105
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	1.29%	78	91	0.20%	9	-0.2	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Madoka Kimura	0.01%	10000	601		69
Magdalena Simmermacher	0.15%	667	161		61
Maha Haddioui	0.64%	156	226	0.20%	92	-0.2	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maria Parra	0.01%	10000	401		69
Marta Martin	0.14%	714	451		69
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.03%	3333	1001		101
Matilde Partele	0.01%	10000	1001		123
Meghan MacLaren	0.25%	400	111		4
Miki Nishiyama	0.01%	10000	1001		48
Mio Kotaki	0.42%	238	276	0.10%	48	-0.1	Spreadex: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Moa Folke	1.76%	57	67	0.30%	55	-0.3	Skybet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Momo Sugiyama	0.00%	10000	351		30
Momoka Kobori	0.86%	116	71		36
Morgane Metraux	1.53%	65	71	0.10%	9	-0.1	Spreadex: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Natsumi Sakuma	0.02%	5000			125
Nayeon Eum	0.02%	5000	1001		79
Noora Komulainen	0.97%	103	151	0.30%	5	2.5875	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paris Hilinski	0.00%	10000	1501
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.43%	233	276	0.10%	30	-0.1	PaddyPower: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patricie Mackova	0.59%	169	151		92
Pia Babnik	1.04%	96	71		69
Pranavi Urs	0.75%	133	161	0.10%	48	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Raegan Denton	0.07%	1429	126		24
Rhianna Lewis	0.02%	5000	1501		121
Roberta Liti	2.87%	35	76	1.60%	27	-1.6	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sarah Kemp	2.42%	41	46	0.30%	9	-0.3	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sarah Yamaki Branch	0.00%	10000			129
Sasikarn Somboonsup	0.10%	1000	501		117
Shannon Tan	5.17%	19	13		17
Sofie Kibsgaard Nielsen	0.30%	333	161		30
Soo Jin Lee	0.00%	10000	1501		109
Stefanie Hall	0.00%	10000	1501		101
Steffi Vogel	0.04%	2500	1251		69
Stephanie Bunque	0.98%	102	176	0.40%	92	-0.4	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.59%	169	34		101
Su Oh	0.00%	10000	1001		115
Vanessa Bouvet	0.00%	10000	1251		65
Vanessa Knecht	0.05%	2000	1001		9
Vani Kapoor	0.04%	2500	501		69
Wenyung Keh	0.01%	10000	1251		69
Whitney Hillier	0.01%	10000	501		63

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Cholcheva Wongras	4.05%	25	51	2.10%	87	-2	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Roberta Liti	2.87%	35	76	1.60%	27	-2	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Celine Herbin	1.77%	56	111	0.90%	48	-2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.