Simulation Results: Australian Women's Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abbie Teasdale	0.01%	10000	301		104
Agathe Laisne	3.38%	30	31	0.20%	32	-0.2	Spreadex: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Agathe Sauzon	0.14%	714	401		81
Aine Donegan	0.78%	128	81		32
Alessandra Fanali	2.92%	34	29		38
Alessia Nobilio	0.41%	244	161		61
Alexandra Forsterling	2.38%	42	31		38
Alexandra Swayne	0.14%	714	326		115
Alice Hewson	1.43%	70	34		10
Amalie Leth-Nissen	0.00%	10000	451		132
Amelia Garvey	3.43%	29	23		25
Amelia Mehmet Grohn	0.13%	769	501		60
Amy Chu	0.00%	10000	801		124
Amy Lee	0.13%	769	326		111
Amy Taylor	0.12%	833	401		70
Amy Walsh	0.00%	10000	1001		127
Ana Dawson	0.02%	5000	276		96
Andrea Grimberg Lignell	0.14%	714	101		70
Anna Foster	0.93%	108	141	0.20%	90	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anna Huang	3.27%	31	19		10
Anna Morgan	0.37%	270	67		70
Anna Zanusso	0.52%	192	201		34
Annabell Fuller	0.16%	625	276		18
Annika Rathbone	0.00%	10000	1001		61
April Angurasaranee	1.42%	70	36		61
Ariane Klotz	0.02%	5000	401		96
Arina Hayashi	5.27%	19	71	3.90%	70	-3.9	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashley Lau	0.70%	143	71		61
Aunchisa Utama	0.30%	333	251		61
Ava Prince	0.00%	10000	551		131
Avani Prashanth	0.52%	192	111		90
Ayako Uehara	0.24%	417	351		81
Ayane Morita	0.10%	1000	301		52
Belinda Ji	0.04%	2500	451		42
Billie-Jo Smith	0.02%	5000	551		115
Blanca Fernandez	0.47%	213	91		52
Brianna Navarrosa	1.24%	81	81		38
Caitlyn Macnab	1.12%	89	71		47
Caley McGinty	6.01%	17	23	1.70%	2	3.825	Ladbrokes: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Camilla Kim	0.33%	303	121		115
Camille Chevalier	0.32%	313	176		96
Cara Gainer	2.24%	45	36		50
Casandra Alexander	8.02%	12	15	1.50%	6	-1.5	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Celine Herbin	0.52%	192	151		15
Chaeree Lim	0.00%	10000	351		104
Charlotte Heath	1.11%	90	41		22
Chloe Williams	0.85%	118	126	0.10%	18	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Claire Shin	0.20%	500	276		42
Daniela Darquea	2.62%	38	67	1.10%	15	-1.1	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danni Vasquez	0.02%	5000	551		124
Darcey Harry	1.12%	89	51		25
Diksha Dagar	1.11%	90	81		5
Dorota Zalewska	0.05%	2000	226		96
Ella Scaysbrook	0.28%	357	67		70
Elmay Viking	0.00%	10000	801		127
Emma Grechi	0.09%	1111	326		81
Emma Spitz	3.69%	27	31	0.50%	70	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Esme Hamilton	0.40%	250	176		25
Fernanda Lira	0.10%	1000	161		104
Gabriella Cowley	0.05%	2000	276		70
Gemma Clews	0.08%	1250	76		115
Georgia Iziemgbe Oboh	0.01%	10000	1251		70
Ginnie Ding	0.05%	2000	551		81
Godiva Kim	0.03%	3333	751		52
Hanee Song	0.03%	3333	551		58
Hannah Darling	0.00%	10000	161		104
Hannah Gregg	0.01%	10000	1251		115
Hannah Reeves	2.69%	37	31		81
Hannah Screen	0.93%	108	126	0.10%	70	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harang Lee	0.07%	1429	326		70
Hazuki Kimura	0.05%	2000	176		47
Hitaashee Bakshi	0.23%	435	201		104
Hyeonji Kang	0.01%	10000	551		42
Ikeba Hinata	0.10%	1000	226		61
Jana Melichova	0.24%	417	251		81
Jordan O'Brien	0.09%	1111	801		104
Justice Bosio	0.50%	200	56		123
Kajsa Arwefjall	3.31%	30	21		25
Katharina Muehlbauer	0.10%	1000	141		10
Kathryn Norris	0.03%	3333	111		111
Kelsey Bennett	4.30%	23	12		1
Kelsey Macdonald	0.03%	3333	451		25
Kiara Connolly Jacks	0.00%	10000	801
Kim Metraux	0.21%	476	226		57
Kirsten Rudgeley	1.76%	57	17		81
Klara Davidson Spilkova	0.55%	182	151		34
Kotono Fukaya	0.02%	5000	301		96
Kristalle Blum	0.01%	10000	551		90
Lara Thomsen	0.00%	10000	226		61
Laura Fuenfstueck	0.40%	250	151		52
Leonie Harm	1.79%	56	46		15
Lily May Humphreys	0.03%	3333	401		9
Lisa Pettersson	0.55%	182	111		25
Liyana Azizan Durisic	0.18%	556	301		38
Luna Sobron Galmes	0.59%	169	91		49
Lydia Hall	0.87%	115	61		34
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	0.61%	164	126		18
Madoka Kimura	0.50%	200	226	0.10%	111	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Magdalena Simmermacher	0.01%	10000	601		96
Maha Haddioui	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	96	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marta Martin	0.18%	556	226		90
Marta Sanz Barrio	0.04%	2500	501		59
Meghan MacLaren	0.13%	769	301		2
Mia Okumura	0.00%	10000	401		127
Mina Yoon	0.48%	208	151		81
Moa Folke	1.10%	91	51		61
Momoka Kobori	0.39%	256	141		22
Morgane Metraux	1.77%	56	101	0.80%	96	-0.8	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Natsumi Sakuma	0.00%	10000	751		90
Nayeon Eum	0.06%	1667	601		81
Noora Komulainen	0.36%	278	251		10
Patricia Isabel Schmidt	0.56%	179	151		42
Patricie Mackova	0.59%	169	101		34
Pia Babnik	0.89%	112	71		6
Pranavi Urs	0.63%	159	126		14
Rachel Lee	0.01%	10000	226		70
Raegan Denton	0.00%	10000	67		61
Rhianna Lewis	0.09%	1111	1001		90
Roberta Liti	1.34%	75	91	0.20%	6	-0.2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sara Kouskova	0.88%	114	81		22
Sarah Kemp	3.38%	30	31	0.20%	18	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sasikarn Somboonsup	0.02%	5000	551		25
Smilla Tarning Soenderby	1.16%	86	67		111
Sofie Kibsgaard Nielsen	0.97%	103	81		52
Soo Jin Lee	0.00%	10000	1001		115
Stefanie Hall	0.02%	5000	801		127
Stephanie Bunque	0.66%	152	301	0.30%	42	-0.3	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Su Oh	0.01%	10000	226		104
Trichat Cheenglab	1.02%	98	41		4
Vanessa Knecht	0.00%	10000	1001		50
Wenyung Keh	0.04%	2500	751		115
Whitney Hillier	0.13%	769	276		124

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Arina Hayashi	5.27%	19	71	3.90%	70	-2	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Caley McGinty	6.01%	17	23	1.70%	2	4.5	Ladbrokes: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Casandra Alexander	8.02%	12	15	1.50%	6	-2	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
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The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.