Simulation Results: Japan Golf Tour Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	1.38%	72	34		16
Akira Endo	0.01%	10000	2001		111
Aoki Takano	0.05%	2000	501		68
Dai Takeuchi	0.02%	5000	1001		105
Daijiro Izumida	0.56%	179	176		53
Daiki Imano	0.38%	263	151		34
Daisuke Kataoka	0.34%	294	161		115
Eric Sugimoto	0.07%	1429	501		115
Genki Okada	0.20%	500	401		12
Genzo Tokimatsu	0.08%	1250	1001		31
Hideto Kobukuro	0.06%	1667	1001		118
Hikaru Yuhara	0.05%	2000	1001		97
Hiroki Abe	0.05%	2000	751		16
Hiroki Mori	0.02%	5000	1251		61
Hiroki Tanaka	0.53%	189	131		68
Hiroshi Iwata	1.71%	58	51		1
Hirotaro Naito	0.28%	357	401		123
Hokuto Yamazaki	0.01%	10000	1501		88
Hyun-Woo Ryu	0.79%	127	111		68
Jinichiro Kozuma	2.45%	41	23		126
Jo Aoki	0.09%	1111	751		97
Justin De Los Santos	0.62%	161	91		81
Juvic Pagunsan	0.07%	1429	401
Kaigo Tamaki	0.20%	500	251		81
Kaito Onishi	0.55%	182	176		10
Kaito Suzuki	0.22%	455	201		68
Katsuhiro Kushiyama	0.07%	1429	1001		118
Kazuhiro Hosokawa	0.00%	10000			67
Kazuki Higa	3.34%	30	15		68
Kazuki Yasumori	0.55%	182	141		111
Keigo Takehara	0.05%	2000	751		68
Kenya Nakayama	0.06%	1667	1001		68
Kodai Aoyama	0.08%	1250	501		123
Kodai Ichihara	0.29%	345	301		88
Kohei Okada	1.41%	71	34		97
Koichiro Furuse	0.24%	417	201		115
Kosei Takeyama	0.20%	500	301		81
Koshiro Maeda	1.25%	80	67		68
Kosuke Sunagawa	0.84%	119	81		88
Kosuke Suzuki	0.39%	256	151		42
Kunihiro Nakashima	0.06%	1667	1501		64
Leo Maruo	0.06%	1667	1001		97
Masamichi Ito	0.06%	1667	1001		88
Masashi Hidaka	0.06%	1667	1001		66
Masaya Hattori	0.31%	323	226		121
Michael Hendry	0.47%	213	81
Mikiya Akutsu	1.40%	71	67		34
Mikumu Horikawa	2.18%	46	29		53
Naoyuki Kataoka	0.63%	159	131		2
Narutoshi Yamaoka	0.00%	10000	2001		111
Noriyuki Kurogi	0.15%	667	401		49
Rakhyun Cho	0.10%	1000	501		26
Ren Yonezawa	3.78%	26	15		8
Riki Kawamoto	1.93%	52	41		31
Rintaro Nakano	0.59%	169	67		16
Ryo Katsumata	2.42%	41	23		6
Ryoma Iwai	0.27%	370	251		81
Ryosuke Kinoshita	3.91%	26	15		68
Ryota Okumatsu	0.01%	10000	1501		111
Ryota Wakahara	0.11%	909	501		12
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.49%	204	131		10
Ryunosuke Furukawa	1.82%	55	34		53
Ryutaro Nagano	3.43%	29	23		42
Satoshi Hara	0.35%	286	351	0.10%	105	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Satoshi Kodaira	1.47%	68	34
Seiji Hokaiwado	0.00%	10000	1251		123
Sejung Hiramoto	1.16%	86	101	0.20%	12	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shaun Norris	4.17%	24	12		81
Shintaro Ban	0.23%	435	601	0.10%	105	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shohei Oda	0.39%	256	161		53
Shotaro Ban	0.25%	400	151		49
Shotaro Tanaka	0.10%	1000	601		105
Shu Fukuzumi	0.53%	189	141		34
Shugo Imahira	3.79%	26	17		126
Shunya Takeyasu	0.27%	370	251		126
Steve Sugimoto	0.21%	476	251		60
Suguru Shimoke	0.82%	122	201	0.30%	26	-0.3	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taichi Kho	1.21%	83	81		2
Taichi Kimura	0.42%	238	131		110
Taichi Nabetani	1.18%	85	67		16
Taichiro Ideriha	0.89%	112	67		6
Taiga Harada	0.04%	2500	1001		97
Taiga Kobayashi	0.47%	213	301	0.10%	61	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiga Mishima	0.03%	3333	1001		59
Taiga Nagano	0.63%	159	126		34
Taiga Semikawa	3.57%	28	21		16
Taiga Sugihara	0.28%	357	301		24
Taiga Yamamoto	0.25%	400	251		42
Taihei Sato	2.87%	35	23		5
Taiki Otsuka	0.03%	3333	751		31
Taiki Yoshida	2.05%	49	51	0.10%	49	-0.1	BetVictor: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiko Nishiyama	0.62%	161	101		68
Taisei Shimizu	0.77%	130	126		68
Taisei Yamada	0.35%	286	401	0.10%	88	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takahiro Hataji	0.61%	164	161		21
Takanori Konishi	0.60%	167	81		65
Takara Oshima	0.22%	455	401		34
Takashi Ogiso	1.80%	56	56		88
Tatsunori Shogenji	1.82%	55	41		34
Tatsuya Kodai	0.19%	526	501		97
Terumichi Kakazu	0.28%	357	351		81
Todd Baek	0.29%	345	501	0.10%	53	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tomoharu Otsuki	1.23%	81	61		126
Tomohiro Ishizaka	2.15%	47	26		21
Tomohiro Kondo	0.09%	1111	751		8
Tomoyasu Sugiyama	0.63%	159	161		34
Tomoyo Ikemura	2.24%	45	26		24
Toshihide Kato	0.03%	3333	1251		97
Tristan Rohrbaugh	0.04%	2500	751		118
Tsubasa Ukita	0.33%	303	201		126
Xuewen Luo	0.07%	1429			88
Yoshikazu Haku	0.08%	1250	1001		68
Yoshinori Fujimoto	1.96%	51	31		42
Yosuke Tsukada	0.67%	149	131		61
Yuichi Teruya	0.27%	370	201		49
Yujiro Ohori	1.16%	86	61		12
Yuki Inamori	2.20%	45	41		34
Yuki Kajimura	0.17%	588	501		81
Yuki Moriyama	0.15%	667	1001	0.10%	122	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Shino	0.15%	667	601		68
Yuma Tanaka	0.01%	10000	1001		97
Yusaku Hosono	3.20%	31	19		26
Yusaku Miyazato	1.17%	85	91	0.10%	26	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yushi Ito	0.36%	278	201		42
Yusuke Minamoto	0.02%	5000	1001		42
Yusuke Sakamoto	0.73%	137	131		4
Yuta Ikeda	0.81%	123	81		42
Yuta Kawakami	0.13%	769	1501	0.10%	53	-0.1	Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Kinoshita	0.05%	2000	1251		88
Yuta Uetake	0.13%	769	501		105
Yuto Katsumata	0.18%	556	151		26
Yuwa Kosaihira	0.67%	149	101		21

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Suguru Shimoke	0.82%	122	201	0.30%	26	-2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Sejung Hiramoto	1.16%	86	101	0.20%	12	-2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Taiki Yoshida	2.05%	49	51	0.10%	49	-2	BetVictor: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.