Simulation Results: Token Homemate Cup

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	2.03%	49	41		11
Akira Endo	0.02%	5000	1001		74
Aoki Takano	0.22%	455	226		39
Brad Kennedy	0.77%	130	111		62
Dai Takeuchi	0.08%	1250	1001		62
Daijiro Izumida	0.95%	105	111		129
Daiki Imano	0.43%	233	76		11
Daisuke Kataoka	0.12%	833	251		90
Gen Nagai	0.02%	5000	1001		80
Genki Okada	0.11%	909	401		23
Hikaru Teranishi	0.00%	10000	501		128
Hikaru Yuhara	0.09%	1111	751		101
Hiroki Mori	0.00%	10000	2001		62
Hiroki Tanaka	0.29%	345	401		112
Hiroshi Iwata	1.95%	51	126	1.20%			Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hirotaro Naito	0.21%	476	301		90
Hokuto Yamazaki	0.07%	1429	401		120
Hyun-Woo Ryu	0.47%	213	126		31
Jinichiro Kozuma	1.39%	72	41		16
Jo Aoki	2.24%	45	276	1.90%	56	-1.9	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin De Los Santos	1.37%	73	56		39
Kaigo Tamaki	0.12%	833	176		16
Kaito Sato	0.12%	833	251		80
Kaito Suzuki	0.15%	667	226		117
Katsuhiro Kushiyama	0.03%	3333	301		112
Kazuki Higa	3.11%	32	26		39
Kazuki Yasumori	0.51%	196	176		39
Keigo Takehara	0.02%	5000	1001		39
Kengo Aoshima	0.00%	10000	2001		101
Kenya Nakayama	0.06%	1667	1001		80
Kinjiro Kato	0.13%	769	401		101
Kodai Aoyama	0.02%	5000	176		101
Kodai Ichihara	0.22%	455	301		54
Kohei Kinoshita	0.07%	1429	276		101
Kohei Okada	1.40%	71	61		90
Koichiro Furuse	0.73%	137	161	0.10%	39	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kosei Takeyama	0.05%	2000	1001		31
Koshiro Maeda	0.48%	208	126		31
Kosuke Sunagawa	0.14%	714	126		62
Kosuke Suzuki	0.21%	476	226		31
Kota Kaneko	5.28%	19	19		62
Kunihiro Kamii	0.24%	417	1251	0.20%	123	-0.2	Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kunihiro Nakashima	0.12%	833	501		90
Kyo Morishita	0.11%	909	1001		117
Leo Maruo	0.22%	455	201		117
Masashi Hidaka	0.04%	2500	1251		101
Masaya Hattori	0.04%	2500	751		4
Michael Hendry	0.97%	103	41		3
Mikiya Akutsu	1.15%	87	126	0.40%	16	-0.4	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mikumu Horikawa	2.83%	35	26		23
Mitsuku Tsukagoshi	0.00%	10000	1501		126
Rakhyun Cho	0.24%	417	251		62
Ren Yonezawa	3.63%	28	26		129
Riki Kawamoto	2.85%	35	34		74
Rintaro Nakano	0.61%	164	111		5
Ryo Katsumata	1.84%	54	51		5
Ryoma Iwai	0.21%	476	201		62
Ryosuke Kinoshita	6.79%	15	13		11
Ryota Okumatsu	0.01%	10000	1001		123
Ryota Wakahara	0.20%	500	301		23
Ryuichi Oiwa	1.09%	92	51		80
Ryunosuke Furukawa	0.79%	127	71		74
Ryutaro Nagano	1.60%	63	34		31
Sanghee Lee	0.78%	128	67		16
Satoshi Hara	0.39%	256	161		39
Satoshi Kodaira	0.35%	286	76		56
Seiji Hokaiwado	0.01%	10000	1001		127
Sejung Hiramoto	0.35%	286	126		90
Shintaro Ban	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	39	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shohei Oda	0.40%	250	276		90
Shotaro Tanaka	0.16%	625	151		90
Shu Fukuzumi	0.60%	167	71		39
Shugo Imahira	5.47%	18	11		39
Shunta Maeawakura	0.00%	10000	1501		61
Shunya Takeyasu	0.52%	192	201		80
Sora Adachi	0.00%	10000	751		123
Steve Sugimoto	0.14%	714	276		55
Suguru Shimoke	1.21%	83	111	0.30%	90	-0.3	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taichi Kho	0.98%	102	67		8
Taichi Nabetani	0.96%	104	67		39
Taichiro Ideriha	0.43%	233	126		74
Taiga Kobayashi	0.25%	400	501	0.10%			Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiga Mishima	0.05%	2000	401		23
Taiga Nagano	0.79%	127	76		16
Taiga Sugihara	0.52%	192	111		80
Taiga Yamamoto	0.31%	323	176		56
Taihei Sato	1.92%	52	76	0.60%	39	-0.6	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiki Otsuka	0.11%	909	251		120
Taiki Yoshida	2.04%	49	31		23
Taiko Nishiyama	0.35%	286	126		5
Taisei Shimizu	1.49%	67	91	0.40%			Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taisei Yamada	0.23%	435	301		62
Takahiro Hataji	0.24%	417	276		80
Takanori Konishi	0.28%	357	151		23
Takara Oshima	0.25%	400			23
Takuya Abo	0.04%	2500	501		90
Tatsunori Shogenji	3.98%	25	26	0.10%	52	-0.1	Skybet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tatsuya Kodai	0.22%	455	191		56
Tatuaki Mizuta	0.05%	2000	276		31
Terumichi Kakazu	0.48%	208	161		112
Tomofumi Ouchi	0.59%	169	126		62
Tomoharu Otsuki	0.92%	109	61		16
Tomohiro Ishizaka	2.21%	45	29		1
Tomohiro Kondo	0.10%	1000	301		74
Tomoyo Ikemura	2.60%	38	29		16
Toru Nakajima	0.02%	5000	1251		62
Toshihide Kato	0.04%	2500	601		80
Toshiki Bando	0.29%	345	251		80
Tristan Rohrbaugh	0.02%	5000	501		101
Tsubasa Ukita	0.09%	1111	1001		90
Wataru Ishikawa	0.01%	10000	1501		120
Xuewen Luo	0.06%	1667			112
Yamato Hatta	0.23%	435	171		101
Yoshinori Fujimoto	0.46%	217	111		23
Yosuke Asaji	2.17%	46	34		31
Yosuke Tsukada	0.88%	114	126	0.10%	39	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yui Ueda	0.01%	10000	1501		112
Yuichi Teruya	0.20%	500	201		56
Yujiro Ohori	0.50%	200	126		11
Yuki Inamori	1.07%	93	91		2
Yuki Kajimura	0.04%	2500	501		62
Yuki Moriyama	0.14%	714	401		101
Yuki Shino	0.15%	667	1001	0.10%	62	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yusaku Hosono	3.10%	32	23		31
Yushi Ito	0.32%	313	181		74
Yusuke Sakamoto	0.88%	114	226	0.40%	11	-0.4	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Ikeda	0.72%	139	111		8
Yuta Kawakami	0.11%	909	401		90
Yuta Uetake	0.15%	667	301		80
Yuto Katsumata	0.16%	625	151		101
Yuto Katsuragawa	2.25%	44	23		8
Yuwa Kosaihira	1.38%	72	51		52

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	1.68%	60	41		23
Akira Endo	0.08%	1250	226		13
Aoki Takano	0.38%	263	126		23
Brad Kennedy	0.99%	101	91		38
Dai Takeuchi	0.14%	714	251		89
Daijiro Izumida	0.93%	108	91		73
Daiki Imano	0.46%	217	61		54
Daisuke Kataoka	0.18%	556	141		54
Gen Nagai	0.05%	2000	301		73
Genki Okada	0.19%	526	176		54
Hikaru Teranishi	0.01%	10000	351		130
Hikaru Yuhara	0.18%	556	226		54
Hiroki Mori	0.04%	2500	301		13
Hiroki Tanaka	0.32%	313	161		38
Hiroshi Iwata	1.94%	52	91	0.90%			Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hirotaro Naito	0.27%	370	126		105
Hokuto Yamazaki	0.11%	909	201		73
Hyun-Woo Ryu	0.48%	208	91		4
Jinichiro Kozuma	1.49%	67	41		73
Jo Aoki	2.31%	43	126	1.50%	4	3.875	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin De Los Santos	1.21%	83	51		38
Kaigo Tamaki	0.18%	556	126		4
Kaito Sato	0.21%	476	141		110
Kaito Suzuki	0.18%	556	126		89
Katsuhiro Kushiyama	0.06%	1667	226		89
Kazuki Higa	2.89%	35	31		73
Kazuki Yasumori	0.74%	135	91		23
Keigo Takehara	0.03%	3333	301		13
Kengo Aoshima	0.00%	10000	351		117
Kenya Nakayama	0.09%	1111	301		54
Kinjiro Kato	0.29%	345	161		117
Kodai Aoyama	0.06%	1667	226		105
Kodai Ichihara	0.36%	278	126		89
Kohei Kinoshita	0.16%	625	201		124
Kohei Okada	1.51%	66	56		38
Koichiro Furuse	0.72%	139	91		23
Kosei Takeyama	0.14%	714	251		38
Koshiro Maeda	0.70%	143	91		38
Kosuke Sunagawa	0.22%	455	111		73
Kosuke Suzuki	0.35%	286	111		89
Kota Kaneko	4.34%	23	26	0.50%	38	-0.5	Spreadex: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kunihiro Kamii	0.34%	294	276		117
Kunihiro Nakashima	0.23%	435	176		117
Kyo Morishita	0.17%	588	226		117
Leo Maruo	0.26%	385	111		110
Masashi Hidaka	0.12%	833	276		110
Masaya Hattori	0.08%	1250	251		73
Michael Hendry	0.91%	110	51		1
Mikiya Akutsu	0.99%	101	91		38
Mikumu Horikawa	2.71%	37	31		54
Mitsuku Tsukagoshi	0.00%	10000	301		110
Rakhyun Cho	0.40%	250	126		54
Ren Yonezawa	3.37%	30	31	0.10%	129	-0.1	Bet365: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Riki Kawamoto	2.66%	38	36		23
Rintaro Nakano	0.82%	122	71		23
Ryo Katsumata	1.84%	54	51		23
Ryoma Iwai	0.30%	333	111		54
Ryosuke Kinoshita	5.53%	18	23	1.20%	38	-1.2	Spreadex: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryota Okumatsu	0.04%	2500	251		124
Ryota Wakahara	0.27%	370	126		4
Ryuichi Oiwa	1.07%	93	51		54
Ryunosuke Furukawa	0.75%	133	61		73
Ryutaro Nagano	1.40%	71	41		13
Sanghee Lee	0.96%	104	56		38
Satoshi Hara	0.48%	208	91		89
Satoshi Kodaira	0.50%	200	61		13
Seiji Hokaiwado	0.05%	2000	301		124
Sejung Hiramoto	0.50%	200	91		54
Shintaro Ban	0.61%	164	91		54
Shohei Oda	0.48%	208	126		54
Shotaro Tanaka	0.21%	476	91		110
Shu Fukuzumi	0.64%	156	61		13
Shugo Imahira	4.75%	21	21		54
Shunta Maeawakura	0.01%	10000	301		38
Shunya Takeyasu	0.52%	192	111		89
Sora Adachi	0.00%	10000	251		124
Steve Sugimoto	0.31%	323	126		38
Suguru Shimoke	1.25%	80	91	0.20%	38	-0.2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taichi Kho	0.83%	120	56		38
Taichi Nabetani	0.97%	103	61		23
Taichiro Ideriha	0.63%	159	91		54
Taiga Kobayashi	0.40%	250	176
Taiga Mishima	0.09%	1111	226		4
Taiga Nagano	0.76%	132	61		4
Taiga Sugihara	0.69%	145	91		73
Taiga Yamamoto	0.46%	217	91		4
Taihei Sato	1.53%	65	61		89
Taiki Otsuka	0.15%	667	126		124
Taiki Yoshida	1.65%	61	36		13
Taiko Nishiyama	0.39%	256	91		38
Taisei Shimizu	1.71%	58	71	0.30%			Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taisei Yamada	0.26%	385	126		54
Takahiro Hataji	0.27%	370	126		105
Takanori Konishi	0.41%	244	111		89
Takara Oshima	0.42%	238			54
Takuya Abo	0.09%	1111	301		73
Tatsunori Shogenji	3.56%	28	34	0.60%	54	-0.6	Spreadex: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tatsuya Kodai	0.37%	270	111		73
Tatuaki Mizuta	0.14%	714	201		2
Terumichi Kakazu	0.54%	185	91		105
Tomofumi Ouchi	0.62%	161	91		89
Tomoharu Otsuki	1.10%	91	56		73
Tomohiro Ishizaka	1.75%	57	34		23
Tomohiro Kondo	0.15%	667	141		13
Tomoyo Ikemura	2.08%	48	36		4
Toru Nakajima	0.04%	2500	301		73
Toshihide Kato	0.10%	1000	226		73
Toshiki Bando	0.44%	227	111		110
Tristan Rohrbaugh	0.05%	2000	251		117
Tsubasa Ukita	0.14%	714	251		73
Wataru Ishikawa	0.05%	2000	301		110
Xuewen Luo	0.10%	1000			89
Yamato Hatta	0.28%	357	111		89
Yoshinori Fujimoto	0.50%	200	91		23
Yosuke Asaji	1.80%	56	41		3
Yosuke Tsukada	1.01%	99	91		23
Yui Ueda	0.03%	3333	301		73
Yuichi Teruya	0.34%	294	111		23
Yujiro Ohori	0.50%	200	91		23
Yuki Inamori	1.01%	99	71		4
Yuki Kajimura	0.13%	769	251		54
Yuki Moriyama	0.25%	400	161		105
Yuki Shino	0.33%	303	226		89
Yusaku Hosono	2.39%	42	31		13
Yushi Ito	0.41%	244	111		38
Yusuke Sakamoto	0.93%	108	91		13
Yuta Ikeda	0.88%	114	91		23
Yuta Kawakami	0.18%	556	201		89
Yuta Uetake	0.28%	357	126		54
Yuto Katsumata	0.30%	333	101		89
Yuto Katsuragawa	2.19%	46	31		23
Yuwa Kosaihira	1.15%	87	46		89

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jo Aoki	2.24%	45	276	1.90%	56	-2	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Hiroshi Iwata	1.95%	51	126	1.20%			Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Taihei Sato	1.92%	52	76	0.60%	39	-2	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jo Aoki	2.31%	43	126	1.50%	4	2.5833333333333	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ryosuke Kinoshita	5.53%	18	23	1.20%	38	-1	Spreadex: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Hiroshi Iwata	1.94%	52	91	0.90%			Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Tatsunori Shogenji	3.56%	28	34	0.60%	54	-1	Spreadex: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Kota Kaneko	4.34%	23	26	0.50%	38	-1	Spreadex: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Taisei Shimizu	1.71%	58	71	0.30%			Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.