Simulation Results: Tokai Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 0.83% 120 41 87
Brad Kennedy 1.55% 65 71 0.10% 38 -0.1 Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Daijiro Izumida 1.06% 94 86 13
Daiki Imano 0.11% 909 351 69
Daisuke Kataoka 0.22% 455 176 87
Fumihiro Ebine 0.04% 2500 751 96
Genki Okada 0.22% 455 151 47
Genzo Tokimatsu 0.34% 294 501 0.10% 55 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayato Fukuoka 0.00% 10000 1001 105
Hideto Tanihara 0.37% 270 126 77
Hiroki Tanaka 0.20% 500 401 47
Hiroshi Iwata 1.59% 63 41 65
Hirotaro Naito 0.28% 357 251 33
Hiroto Nanba 0.00% 10000 501 103
Hyun-Woo Ryu 0.69% 145 151 38
Jigen Serizawa 0.12% 833 251 52
Jiho Yang 0.14% 714 251 96
Junya Kameshiro 0.01% 10000 1001 87
Justin De Los Santos 0.78% 128 111 55
Kaito Sato 0.03% 3333 251 42
Kazuki Yasumori 0.62% 161 141 2
Kinjiro Kato 0.03% 3333 1001 69
Kodai Ichihara 0.48% 208 126 79
Kohei Okada 1.04% 96 71 11
Koshiro Maeda 0.86% 116 61 26
Kosuke Sunagawa 0.32% 313 176 26
Kosuke Suzuki 0.72% 139 176 0.20% 42 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kota Kaneko 2.94% 34 21 33
Kunihiro Kamii 0.42% 238 401 0.20% 47 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mao Matsuyama 0.03% 3333 301 92
Masaru Kato 0.00% 10000 102
Masashi Hidaka 0.07% 1429 501 52
Masashi Nakamura 0.01% 10000 1001 69
Masayuki Yamashita 0.64% 156 201 0.10% 69 -0.1 Betway: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Hendry 0.44% 227 226 33
Mikiya Akutsu 1.38% 72 56 26
Mikumu Horikawa 3.82% 26 26 22
Mizuki Hirase 0.00% 10000 501 94
Naoyuki Kataoka 1.08% 93 56 67
Nicklaus Chiam 0.07% 1429 401 69
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.08% 1250 401 22
Rei Okumura 0.00% 10000 351 103
Ren Yonezawa 3.50% 29 21 107
Riki Kawamoto 3.69% 27 15 79
Rikuya Hoshino 1.44% 69 29 6
Rintaro Nakano 0.14% 714 251 55
Ryo Ishikawa 2.22% 45 26 26
Ryo Katsumata 2.04% 49 41 26
Ryoma Iwai 0.17% 588 201 94
Ryosuke Kinoshita 3.43% 29 21 33
Ryouya Matsui 0.00% 10000 501 63
Ryuichi Oiwa 1.68% 60 61 107
Ryuji Masaoka 0.00% 10000 1501 79
Ryunosuke Furukawa 1.14% 88 67 26
Ryutaro Nagano 2.88% 35 31 107
Sanghee Lee 0.49% 204 71 6
Satoshi Hara 0.45% 222 81 19
Satoshi Kodaira 1.01% 99 31 107
Sejung Hiramoto 0.27% 370 251 16
Shinichi Suzuki 0.01% 10000 401 99
Shota Ueki 0.20% 500 401 22
Shugo Imahira 4.53% 22 17 3
Shun Niimura 0.03% 3333 501 69
Shun Tanamachi 0.00% 10000 1001 107
Shunya Takeyasu 0.68% 147 126 107
Suguru Shimoke 0.88% 114 61 1
Taichi Nabetani 0.86% 116 67 16
Taichiro Ideriha 0.42% 238 111 19
Taiga Nagano 1.05% 95 81 107
Taiga Semikawa 6.85% 15 13 4
Taiga Sugihara 0.41% 244 141 87
Taihei Sato 1.22% 82 81 19
Taiki Yoshida 1.85% 54 51 11
Taiko Nishiyama 0.47% 213 126 107
Taisei Shimizu 1.32% 76 56 68
Taisei Yamada 0.14% 714 501 42
Takahiro Hataji 0.51% 196 81 69
Takanori Konishi 0.93% 108 126 0.10% 54 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takara Oshima 0.13% 769 501 79
Takashi Ogiso 2.92% 34 23 42
Tatsunori Shogenji 3.86% 26 26 42
Terumichi Kakazu 0.31% 323 151 13
Todd Baek 0.42% 238 151 65
Tomoharu Otsuki 3.55% 28 23 6
Tomohiro Ishizaka 1.14% 88 56 6
Tomohiro Kondo 0.04% 2500 601 93
Tomoki Mitsuda 0.08% 1250 351 55
Tomoya Imagawa 0.00% 10000 501 106
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.22% 455 176 59
Toru Taniguchi 0.01% 10000 601 99
Tsubasa Ukita 0.17% 588 201 62
Yamato Hatta 0.10% 1000 1001 79
Yoshinori Fujimoto 0.28% 357 226 22
Yosuke Asaji 0.43% 233 161 87
Yosuke Tsukada 0.47% 213 176 77
Young-Han Song 3.00% 33 111 2.10% 16 -2.1 Star Sports: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yousei Goya 0.00% 10000 501 101
Yujiro Ohori 0.81% 123 71 79
Yuki Furukawa 0.09% 1111 751 59
Yuki Inamori 2.15% 47 56 0.40% 59 -0.4 Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yuki Mori (July1990) 0.00% 10000 501 47
Yuki Moriyama 0.11% 909 401 63
Yuki Shino 0.16% 625 301 79
Yusaku Hosono 2.06% 49 34 4
Yusaku Miyazato 0.28% 357 176 79
Yusuke Sakamoto 1.32% 76 56 26
Yuta Ikeda 0.32% 313 141 38
Yuta Kawakami 0.17% 588 301 96
Yuta Kinoshita 0.19% 526 201 33
Yuta Sugiura 1.92% 52 36 13
Yuta Uetake 0.17% 588 301 47
Yuto Katsumata 0.19% 526 301 69
Yuto Katsuragawa 1.30% 77 23 38
Yuwa Kosaihira 1.09% 92 71 6

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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