Simulation Results: Richard Mille Charity Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 1.86% 54 46 68
Brad Kennedy 0.66% 152 81 68
Chisato Takamiya 0.00% 10000 1251 102
Dai Takeuchi 0.05% 2000 96
Daichi Sakuda 0.04% 2500 1251 58
Daijiro Izumida 0.46% 217 151 22
Daiki Imano 0.23% 435 176 47
Daisuke Kataoka 0.14% 714 401 50
Daisuke Matsubara 0.00% 10000 1501 77
Eric Sugimoto 0.10% 1000 501 50
Fumihiro Ebine 0.05% 2000 1001 62
Genki Enomoto 0.00% 10000 1251 137
Genki Okada 0.32% 313 226 77
Genzo Tokimatsu 0.78% 128 176 0.20% 22 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Guntaek Koh 0.31% 323 126 32
Gyumin Lee 0.46% 217 226 42
Haruto Uchiyama 0.13% 769 401 64
Hideto Kobukuro 0.04% 2500 751 68
Hideto Tanihara 0.22% 455 226 11
Hiroshi Iwata 2.00% 50 26 32
Hirotaro Naito 0.57% 175 351 0.30% 126 -0.3 Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyun-Woo Ryu 1.08% 93 81 42
Itsuki Kurokawa 0.03% 3333 1001 132
Jigen Serizawa 0.30% 333 351 64
Jiho Yang 0.28% 357 351 102
Justin De Los Santos 1.09% 92 61 42
Juvic Pagunsan 0.28% 357 301 138
Kaito Onishi 1.40% 71 36 126
Katsuyuki Sakurai 0.00% 10000 2001 131
Kazuki Higa 3.64% 27 19 8
Kazuki Yasumori 0.52% 192 201 96
Kazumasa Matsuda 0.21% 476 351 102
Kei Ikeuchi 0.00% 10000 1251 102
Keigo Kaneoka 0.14% 714 301 29
Keisuke Sato 0.03% 3333 1251 88
Kento Yamawaki 0.09% 1111 1001 114
Kodai Ichihara 0.30% 333 201 22
Kohei Okada 1.30% 77 46 11
Koichi Kitamura 0.05% 2000 1001 114
Konosuke Nakazato 0.04% 2500 1001 114
Kosei Takeyama 0.18% 556 251 96
Koshiro Maeda 0.33% 303 251 102
Kosuke Sunagawa 0.23% 435 401 29
Kosuke Suzuki 1.59% 63 67 0.10% 138 -0.1 Spreadex: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kota Kaneko 3.69% 27 13 16
Kunihiro Kamii 0.47% 213 226 77
Leo Maruo 0.64% 156 81 88
Lloyd Jefferson Go 0.07% 1429 501 88
Masahiro Kawamura 0.80% 125 126 22
Masaki Matsumoto 0.01% 10000 2001 88
Masashi Hidaka 0.08% 1250 601 77
Masashi Nakamura 0.01% 10000 1001 126
Masato Takada 0.01% 10000 1501 102
Masayuki Yamashita 0.03% 3333 1001 68
Miki Yamaji 0.00% 10000 2001 88
Mikiya Akutsu 0.86% 116 56 16
Mikumu Horikawa 4.02% 25 13 11
Minato Oshima 0.04% 2500 1251 114
Minwook Gwon 0.03% 3333 1001 68
Naoto Nakanishi 0.20% 500 251 114
Naoyuki Kaneda 0.03% 3333 1001 135
Naoyuki Kataoka 1.40% 71 51
Nicklaus Chiam 0.03% 3333 1001 8
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.08% 1250 1001 37
Ren Yonezawa 2.75% 36 17 4
Riki Kawamoto 2.26% 44 15 2
Ryo Ishikawa 1.34% 75 51 22
Ryo Katsumata 1.23% 81 101 0.20% 16 -0.2 Spreadex: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryoma Iwai 0.35% 286 301 114
Ryosuke Kinoshita 2.81% 36 23 32
Ryuichi Oiwa 2.32% 43 51 0.40% 47 -0.4 Skybet: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryuji Nozawa 0.10% 1000 601 77
Ryunosuke Furukawa 1.08% 93 81 3
Ryutaro Nagano 1.39% 72 86 0.20% 47 -0.2 Spreadex: 85/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sanghee Lee 1.45% 69 51 58
Satoshi Hara 0.28% 357 251 42
Scott Vincent 6.26% 16 8.5 16
Sejung Hiramoto 0.48% 208 176 126
Shintaro Ban 0.50% 200 501 0.30% 37 -0.3 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shota Matsumoto 0.12% 833 301 62
Shota Seki 0.14% 714 601 114
Shota Ueki 0.20% 500 1001 0.10% 96 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shotaro Matsuoka 0.39% 256 276 50
Shu Fukuzumi 0.13% 769 601 68
Shun Murayama 0.01% 10000 2001 138
Shun Niimura 0.07% 1429 2001 114
Shunya Takeyasu 0.56% 179 151 138
Sota Kamei 0.00% 10000 1251 114
Souta Toriumi 0.01% 10000 2501 50
Steve Sugimoto 0.19% 526 301 77
Suguru Shimoke 0.87% 115 111 8
Taichi Nabetani 1.12% 89 81 114
Taichiro Ideriha 0.40% 250 276 102
Taiga Nagano 2.06% 49 29 37
Taiga Semikawa 2.70% 37 23 7
Taiga Sugihara 0.47% 213 81 58
Taihei Sato 1.91% 52 36 77
Taiki Sakurai 0.00% 10000 601 67
Taiki Yoshida 1.85% 54 36 88
Taiko Nishiyama 0.19% 526 226 16
Taisei Shimizu 1.24% 81 31 11
Taisei Yamada 0.16% 625 751 77
Takahiro Hataji 0.34% 294 251 88
Takanori Konishi 0.94% 106 111 37
Takara Oshima 0.63% 159 176 0.10% 133 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takashi Ogiso 1.42% 70 61 68
Takumi Murakami 0.11% 909 501 16
Tatsunori Shogenji 2.57% 39 19 4
Tatsuya Kodai 0.22% 455 401 77
Terumichi Kakazu 0.35% 286 251 64
Todd Baek 0.29% 345 226 102
Tomo Kagawa 0.00% 10000 1251 102
Tomoharu Otsuki 1.37% 73 67 50
Tomohiro Ishizaka 2.06% 49 26 42
Tomohiro Kondo 0.17% 588 251 96
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.26% 385 351 22
Tomoyo Ikemura 1.45% 69 67 1
Toru Taniguchi 0.00% 10000 1251 138
Toshiki Bando 0.12% 833 501 29
Tsubasa Ukita 0.08% 1250 501 58
Yamato Hatta 0.18% 556 401 133
Yosuke Asaji 1.10% 91 61 114
Yosuke Tsukada 0.72% 139 176 0.20% 32 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Young-Han Song 1.72% 58 26 68
Yujiro Ohori 0.80% 125 151 0.10% 77 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Furukawa 0.28% 357 251 50
Yuki Inamori 1.34% 75 51 22
Yuki Kitagawa 0.05% 2000 751 114
Yuki Kono 0.05% 2000 601 96
Yuki Moriyama 0.25% 400 201 32
Yuki Shino 0.10% 1000 351 102
Yukito Suzuki 0.01% 10000 1001 88
Yusaku Hosono 2.11% 47 34 77
Yusaku Miyazato 0.71% 141 111 126
Yushi Ito 0.30% 333 251 50
Yusuke Sakamoto 1.33% 75 101 0.30% 138 -0.3 Spreadex: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Ikeda 0.20% 500 251 135
Yuta Kawakami 0.29% 345 301 4
Yuta Kinoshita 0.19% 526 601 102
Yuta Sugiura 1.34% 75 21 68
Yuta Uetake 0.07% 1429 601 50
Yuto Katsumata 0.20% 500 276 37
Yuto Watanabe 0.00% 10000 1251 102
Yuwa Kosaihira 0.86% 116 401 0.60% 11 -0.6 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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