Simulation Results: Japan Players Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	1.03%	97	56		1
Akira Endo	0.03%	3333	2001		135
Akira Kasahara	0.02%	5000	1501		142
Aoki Takano	0.07%	1429	751		112
Atomu Shigenaga	0.10%	1000	1001		62
Dai Takeuchi	0.04%	2500	1001		98
Daijiro Izumida	0.88%	114	201	0.40%	33	-0.4	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daiki Imano	0.43%	233	161		4
Daisuke Kataoka	0.17%	588	251		98
Eric Sugimoto	0.11%	909	751		98
Genki Okada	0.31%	323	351		33
Genzo Tokimatsu	0.20%	500	751	0.10%	123	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gyumin Lee	0.28%	357	276		3
Haruto Uchiyama	0.27%	370	251		79
Hideto Kobukuro	0.05%	2000	1501		142
Hikaru Kato	0.03%	3333	2001		46
Hikaru Yuhara	0.08%	1250	1251		130
Hiroki Abe	0.17%	588	351		7
Hiroki Mori	0.03%	3333	2001		62
Hiroki Tanaka	0.62%	161	161		62
Hiroshi Iwata	2.35%	43	36		154
Hirotaro Naito	0.23%	435	401		62
Hokuto Yamazaki	0.02%	5000	2501		123
Hyun-Woo Ryu	0.63%	159	141		79
Ishikawa Hiroto	0.07%	1429			142
Jinichiro Kozuma	1.87%	53	29		19
Jo Aoki	0.06%	1667	1001		123
Justin De Los Santos	0.57%	175	151		62
Kaigo Tamaki	0.24%	417	251		79
Kaito Suzuki	0.35%	286	251		112
Katsuhiro Kushiyama	0.10%	1000	501		98
Kazuhiro Matsukami	0.03%	3333	1001		142
Kazuki Higa	2.53%	40	26		7
Kazuki Suzuki	0.03%	3333	901		46
Kazuki Yasumori	0.49%	204	176		112
Kazuki Yasuura	0.17%	588	501		123
Keigo Takehara	0.07%	1429	1001		149
Keisuke Ozaki	0.07%	1429	1001		123
Kenya Nakayama	0.11%	909	1501		33
Kerry Mountcastle	0.15%	667	101		130
Kinjiro Kato	0.32%	313	376	0.10%	62	-0.1	Unibet: 375/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kodai Aoyama	0.05%	2000	1001		62
Kodai Ichihara	0.33%	303	301		7
Kohei Kinoshita	0.19%	526	251		13
Kohei Okada	1.20%	83	86		33
Koichiro Furuse	0.21%	476	326		141
Koki Domeki	0.06%	1667	1501		112
Koki Shiomi	0.05%	2000	1001		112
Konosuke Nakazato	0.05%	2000	1251		62
Kosei Takeyama	0.11%	909	501		40
Koshiro Maeda	1.16%	86	76		46
Kosuke Sunagawa	0.79%	127	101		52
Kosuke Suzuki	0.34%	294	251		29
Kunihiro Nakashima	0.09%	1111	2001		79
Kyo Morishita	0.30%	333	251		29
Leo Maruo	0.07%	1429	1001		52
Masahiro Kuramoto	0.00%	10000	1501		153
Masamichi Ito	0.04%	2500	1501		79
Masashi Hidaka	0.05%	2000	1001		29
Masaya Hattori	0.23%	435	176		40
Masayuki Yamashita	0.34%	294	251		33
Mikiya Akutsu	1.11%	90	56		79
Mikumu Horikawa	1.46%	68	41		79
Naoto Nakanishi	0.07%	1429	501		62
Naoyuki Kataoka	1.54%	65	41		19
Narutoshi Yamaoka	0.01%	10000	2501		123
Noriyuki Kurogi	0.20%	500	501		62
Osei Tada	0.02%	5000	1501		112
Rakhyun Cho	0.25%	400	501	0.10%	112	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rei Isoi	0.02%	5000	2001		142
Ren Yonezawa	3.31%	30	19		25
Riki Kawamoto	1.80%	56	41		7
Rintaro Nakano	0.93%	108	67		19
Ryo Katsumata	3.05%	33	26		79
Ryoma Iwai	0.43%	233	251		135
Ryosuke Kinoshita	2.58%	39	23		112
Ryota Okumatsu	0.01%	10000	2001		151
Ryota Wakahara	0.43%	233	351	0.10%	98	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.95%	105	67		40
Ryunosuke Furukawa	1.22%	82	46		79
Ryutaro Nagano	2.63%	38	34		33
Sanghee Lee	1.08%	93	46		2
Satoshi Hara	0.33%	303	501	0.10%	79	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Satoshi Kodaira	1.54%	65	36		7
Seiji Hokaiwado	0.01%	10000	1501		130
Sejung Hiramoto	0.93%	108	111		46
Shintaro Ban	0.31%	323	1001	0.20%	142	-0.2	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shintaro Kobayashi	0.04%	2500	1001		79
Shohei Oda	0.61%	164	251	0.20%	98	-0.2	Unibet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shotaro Ban	0.28%	357	226		112
Shotaro Tanaka	0.08%	1250	1001		33
Shotaro Wada	0.09%	1111	501		98
Shu Fukuzumi	0.58%	172	161		112
Shunya Takeyasu	0.30%	333	301		52
Steve Sugimoto	0.23%	435	351		79
Suguru Shimoke	1.01%	99	161	0.40%	46	-0.4	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taichi Kho	3.14%	32	26		62
Taichi Nabetani	1.49%	67	41		52
Taichiro Ideriha	1.41%	71	71		98
Taiga Harada	0.07%	1429	1501		40
Taiga Kobayashi	0.22%	455	401		135
Taiga Mishima	0.05%	2000	1251		19
Taiga Nagano	0.54%	185	126		13
Taiga Semikawa	3.34%	30	19		62
Taiga Sugihara	0.31%	323	301		151
Taiga Yamamoto	0.32%	313	351		4
Taihei Sato	3.01%	33	21		7
Taiki Otsuka	0.06%	1667	751		98
Taiki Yoshida	1.65%	61	56		40
Taiko Nishiyama	0.60%	167	126		62
Taisei Shimizu	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	4	0.85	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taisei Yamada	0.34%	294	751	0.20%	79	-0.2	Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takahiro Hataji	0.79%	127	161	0.20%	13	-0.2	Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takanori Konishi	0.80%	125	51		52
Takara Oshima	0.35%	286	251		62
Takashi Ogiso	1.74%	57	51		79
Takuya Abo	0.27%	370	251		154
Tatsunori Shogenji	2.44%	41	31		13
Tatsuya Kodai	0.33%	303	301		19
Terumichi Kakazu	0.27%	370	601	0.10%	29	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Todd Baek	0.31%	323	601	0.10%	61	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tomoharu Otsuki	0.68%	147	126		98
Tomohiro Ishizaka	1.98%	51	29		79
Tomohiro Kondo	0.24%	417	351		13
Tomoyasu Sugiyama	0.95%	105	141	0.20%	57	-0.2	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tomoyo Ikemura	1.78%	56	46		62
Toshihide Kato	0.03%	3333	2001		98
Toshiki Bando	0.28%	357	751	0.10%	135	-0.1	Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tristan Rohrbaugh	0.02%	5000	1001		79
Tsubasa Ukita	0.15%	667	351		19
Xuewen Luo	0.12%	833			79
Yang Tong	0.03%	3333	1251		62
Yoshikazu Araki	0.00%	10000	2501		123
Yoshikazu Haku	0.12%	833	1001		62
Yoshinori Fujimoto	1.47%	68	51		13
Yosuke Tsukada	0.58%	172	176		98
Young-Han Song	4.26%	23	15		130
Yuichi Teruya	0.34%	294	176		142
Yujiro Ohori	1.47%	68	61		40
Yuki Inamori	1.40%	71	56		135
Yuki Kajimura	0.16%	625	601		149
Yuki Kono	0.07%	1429	401		58
Yuki Moriyama	0.15%	667	1501	0.10%	98	-0.1	Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Shino	0.12%	833	501		79
Yuma Tanaka	0.08%	1250	751		98
Yusaku Hosono	2.66%	38	23		46
Yusaku Miyazato	0.89%	112	126	0.10%	59	-0.1	Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yushi Ito	0.61%	164	201	0.10%	25	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yusuke Minamoto	0.08%	1250	1001		79
Yusuke Sakamoto	1.20%	83	91	0.10%	154	-0.1	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Ikeda	0.83%	120	111		25
Yuta Kawakami	0.15%	667	2001	0.10%	112	-0.1	Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Kinoshita	0.09%	1111	1501		59
Yuta Uetake	0.22%	455	251		135
Yuto Katsumata	0.38%	263	201		130
Yuwa Kosaihira	1.15%	87	91	0.10%	25	-0.1	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Suguru Shimoke	1.01%	99	161	0.40%	46	-2	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Daijiro Izumida	0.88%	114	201	0.40%	33	-2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Tomoyasu Sugiyama	0.95%	105	141	0.20%	57	-2	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.