Simulation Results: Japan Players Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 2.03% 49 36 30
Aoki Takano 0.05% 2000 1001 112
Ataru Tokumoto 0.03% 3333 501 74
Cheng Jin 0.08% 1250 501 39
Dai Takeuchi 0.09% 1111 1001 85
Daichi Sakuda 0.05% 2000 751 99
Daijiro Izumida 0.48% 208 126 45
Daiki Imano 0.35% 286 141 71
Daisuke Kataoka 0.31% 323 161 131
Daisuke Yasumoto 0.04% 2500 1501 131
Eric Sugimoto 0.27% 370 226 60
Fumihiro Ebine 0.11% 909 601 112
Genki Okada 0.26% 385 301 39
Genzo Tokimatsu 0.49% 204 351 0.20% 14 -0.2 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Haruto Uchiyama 0.09% 1111 601 18
Hideto Kobukuro 0.04% 2500 451 124
Hiroki Mori 0.00% 10000 2001 143
Hiroki Tanaka 0.24% 417 451 18
Hiroshi Minezawa 0.02% 5000 1001 112
Hirotaro Naito 0.52% 192 226 0.10% 52 -0.1 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Itsuki Kurokawa 0.05% 2000 751 141
Jigen Serizawa 0.31% 323 351 85
John Oda 0.04% 2500 1501 74
Junya Kameshiro 0.03% 3333 1501 145
Justin De Los Santos 1.42% 70 51 52
Juvic Pagunsan 0.33% 303 301 67
Kaigo Tamaki 0.09% 1111 201 85
Kaito Suzuki 0.42% 238 201 99
Katsuyuki Sakurai 0.01% 10000 1501 149
Kazuhiro Matsukami 0.05% 2000 1001 145
Kazuki Yasumori 0.61% 164 201 0.10% 26 -0.1 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kazuma Kawai 0.05% 2000 751 124
Kazumasa Matsuda 0.52% 192 301 0.20% 67 -0.2 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kazuya Koura 0.17% 588 751 131
Keigo Kaneoka 0.34% 294 201 99
Keisuke Ozaki 0.03% 3333 1501 52
Keisuke Sato 0.05% 2000 751 124
Kento Yamawaki 0.14% 714 1001 30
Kodai Ichihara 0.42% 238 161 45
Kohei Okada 0.99% 101 81 14
Koichi Kitamura 0.07% 1429 751 72
Koki Domeki 0.07% 1429 351 85
Koki Shiomi 0.01% 10000 1001 137
Konosuke Nakazato 0.02% 5000 1001 99
Kosei Takeyama 0.40% 250 176 74
Koshiro Maeda 0.51% 196 276 0.10% 57 -0.1 PaddyPower: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kosuke Sunagawa 0.26% 385 401 26
Kosuke Suzuki 2.38% 42 31 99
Kota Kaneko 4.30% 23 15 9
Kunihiro Nakashima 0.16% 625 201 30
Leo Maruo 0.37% 270 101 6
Masaki Matsumoto 0.03% 3333 1501 131
Masashi Hidaka 0.24% 417 226 112
Masashi Nakamura 0.02% 5000 601 99
Masato Takada 0.01% 10000 1001 99
Miki Yamaji 0.01% 10000 1501 99
Mikiya Akutsu 2.05% 49 23 67
Mikumu Horikawa 4.09% 24 13 9
Minato Oshima 0.04% 2500 1001 99
Minwook Gwon 0.06% 1667 751 85
Naoto Nakanishi 0.21% 476 251 9
Naoto Takayanagi 0.02% 5000 1501 131
Naoyuki Kataoka 1.30% 77 51 14
Nicklaus Chiam 0.03% 3333 751 85
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.09% 1111 601 74
Osei Tada 0.00% 10000 2501 74
Raiki Okamoto 0.00% 10000 124
Ren Yonezawa 2.64% 38 17 6
Riki Kawamoto 2.64% 38 31 14
Riku Ueno 0.04% 2500 1001 85
Ryo Ishikawa 2.81% 36 23 99
Ryo Katsumata 1.23% 81 91 0.10% 30 -0.1 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryo Noro 0.04% 2500 1001 152
Ryoma Iwai 0.29% 345 301 99
Ryosuke Kinoshita 3.94% 25 23 23
Ryuichi Oiwa 1.64% 61 71 0.20% 2 1.3 Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryuji Nozawa 0.21% 476 351 60
Ryunosuke Furukawa 1.51% 66 67 39
Ryutaro Kato 0.01% 10000 152
Ryutaro Nagano 1.69% 59 91 0.60% 26 -0.6 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Satoshi Hara 0.23% 435 401 45
Satoshi Kodaira 0.97% 103 51 85
Scott Vincent 4.51% 22 12 3
Sejung Hiramoto 0.60% 167 276 0.20% 23 -0.2 PaddyPower: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Seung-Bo Jang 0.01% 10000 601 137
Shinji Tomimura 0.02% 5000 1001 60
Shintaro Ban 0.57% 175 226 0.10% 85 -0.1 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Shintaro Kobayashi 0.17% 588 401 57
Shohei Hasegawa 0.01% 10000 1501 124
Shota Matsumoto 0.13% 769 401 45
Shota Ueki 0.35% 286 601 0.20% 74 -0.2 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shotaro Matsuoka 0.42% 238 401 0.20% 18 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shu Fukuzumi 0.14% 714 401 45
Shun Murayama 0.01% 10000 1501 137
Shun Niimura 0.05% 2000 1501 74
Shunya Takeyasu 0.79% 127 101 99
Shuto Sakamoto 0.02% 5000 1501 99
Souta Toriumi 0.00% 10000 1501 143
Steve Sugimoto 0.34% 294 151 112
Suguru Shimoke 1.17% 85 51 60
Sunkyu Baek 0.01% 10000 751 150
Taichi Kimura 0.26% 385 276 137
Taichi Nabetani 1.47% 68 51 112
Taichiro Ideriha 0.32% 313 201 85
Taiga Harada 0.03% 3333 1001 74
Taiga Mishima 0.07% 1429 751 39
Taiga Nagano 2.03% 49 51 0.10% 9 -0.1 QuinnBet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiga Sugihara 0.92% 109 67 60
Taihei Sato 2.60% 38 19 18
Taiki Yoshida 1.37% 73 81 0.10% 5 0.95 QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiko Nishiyama 0.60% 167 131 112
Taisei Shimizu 2.72% 37 31 74
Taisei Yamada 0.14% 714 751 57
Takahiro Hataji 0.29% 345 301 52
Takanori Konishi 0.93% 108 91 30
Takara Oshima 0.40% 250 201 124
Takashi Ogiso 1.80% 56 41 152
Takeru Kawakami 0.04% 2500 1001 145
Tatsunori Shogenji 3.27% 31 23 1
Tatsuya Kodai 0.32% 313 351 85
Terumichi Kakazu 0.41% 244 226 74
Todd Baek 0.59% 169 81 65
Tomo Kagawa 0.01% 10000 1501 141
Tomoharu Otsuki 2.27% 44 51 0.30% 152 -0.3 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tomohiro Ishizaka 1.65% 61 34 4
Tomohiro Kondo 0.04% 2500 351 6
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.22% 455 351 26
Tomoyuki Kuroda 0.01% 10000 45
Toshiki Bando 0.10% 1000 751 85
Toshinori Muto 0.10% 1000 351 85
Toshiumi Kushioka 0.03% 3333 1001 30
Tsubasa Ukita 0.13% 769 251 112
Yamato Hatta 0.25% 400 301 74
Yoshikazu Haku 0.06% 1667 601 112
Yoshinori Fujimoto 0.10% 1000 351 151
Yosuke Asaji 1.58% 63 51 45
Yosuke Tsukada 0.88% 114 226 0.40% 39 -0.4 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yujiro Ohori 1.31% 76 101 0.30% 85 -0.3 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Furukawa 0.35% 286 201 65
Yuki Inamori 2.09% 48 41 30
Yuki Kitagawa 0.03% 3333 751 30
Yuki Kono 0.02% 5000 2001 9
Yuki Moriyama 0.20% 500 501 112
Yuki Shino 0.29% 345 201 145
Yusaku Hosono 3.12% 32 29 52
Yusaku Miyazato 1.28% 78 81 67
Yushi Ito 0.22% 455 401 39
Yusuke Minamoto 0.05% 2000 2001 124
Yusuke Sakamoto 1.84% 54 67 0.40% 112 -0.4 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yuta Ikeda 0.35% 286 201 131
Yuta Kawakami 0.19% 526 401 30
Yuta Kinoshita 0.14% 714 601
Yuta Sugiura 2.49% 40 19 23
Yuta Uetake 0.20% 500 201 72
Yuto Katsumata 0.32% 313 201 112
Yuwa Kosaihira 0.00% 10000 151 18

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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