Simulation Results: Fortinet Players Cup

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 0.73% 137 91 64
Brad Kennedy 1.26% 79 86 0.10% 29 -0.1 Spreadex: 85/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daijiro Izumida 1.06% 94 51 29
Daiki Imano 0.14% 714 601 14
Eric Sugimoto 0.11% 909 601 56
Fumihiro Ebine 0.04% 2500 601 64
Genki Okada 0.20% 500 176 14
Genzo Tokimatsu 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 72 -0.1 BetMGM: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Haruto Uchiyama 0.11% 909 251 84
Hideto Tanihara 0.34% 294 141 64
Hiroki Tanaka 0.31% 323 351 61
Hirotaro Naito 0.29% 345 351 21
Hyun-Woo Ryu 0.73% 137 126 38
Jigen Serizawa 0.33% 303 251 84
Jiho Yang 0.06% 1667 401 89
Justin De Los Santos 0.57% 175 126 21
Kazuki Yasumori 0.77% 130 101 21
Kodai Ichihara 0.21% 476 301 21
Kohei Okada 1.41% 71 56 17
Koshiro Maeda 0.59% 169 101 54
Kosuke Sunagawa 0.36% 278 176 21
Kosuke Suzuki 0.78% 128 201 0.30% 63 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kota Kaneko 3.23% 31 17 3
Kunihiro Kamii 0.53% 189 401 0.30% 29 -0.3 Spreadex: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Masashi Hidaka 0.08% 1250 601 82
Michael Hendry 0.54% 185 151 38
Mikiya Akutsu 1.23% 81 51 94
Mikumu Horikawa 3.79% 26 23 29
Naoyuki Kataoka 1.17% 85 36 72
Nicklaus Chiam 0.08% 1250 401 38
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.12% 833 401 46
Ren Yonezawa 3.26% 31 23 77
Riki Kawamoto 2.98% 34 21 77
Ryo Ishikawa 3.55% 28 23 5
Ryo Katsumata 2.35% 43 34 21
Ryoma Iwai 0.33% 303 176 56
Ryosuke Kinoshita 2.74% 36 31 14
Ryuichi Oiwa 1.34% 75 101 0.40% 6 -0.4 BetMGM: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryunosuke Furukawa 0.97% 103 71 19
Ryutaro Nagano 2.68% 37 41 0.20% 72 -0.2 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sanghee Lee 1.09% 92 36 54
Satoshi Hara 0.89% 112 71 19
Satoshi Kodaira 1.15% 87 34 51
Sejung Hiramoto 0.47% 213 126 10
Shaun Norris 3.09% 32 23 38
Shintaro Ban 0.22% 455 401 64
Shotaro Matsuoka 0.34% 294 301 77
Shu Fukuzumi 0.43% 233 151 8
Shugo Imahira 5.54% 18 13 46
Shun Niimura 0.03% 3333 501 56
Shunya Takeyasu 0.38% 263 251 38
Suguru Shimoke 1.35% 74 36 10
Taichi Nabetani 1.03% 97 86 29
Taichiro Ideriha 0.65% 154 81 17
Taiga Nagano 0.95% 105 91 8
Taiga Semikawa 5.94% 17 16 7
Taiga Sugihara 0.51% 196 301 0.20% 77 -0.2 Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taihei Sato 1.78% 56 41 1
Taiki Yoshida 2.57% 39 36 2
Taiko Nishiyama 0.33% 303 176 88
Taisei Shimizu 2.19% 46 46 29
Taisei Yamada 0.25% 400 376 51
Takahiro Hataji 0.28% 357 226 89
Takanori Konishi 0.72% 139 201 0.20% 86 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takara Oshima 0.19% 526 551 29
Takashi Iwamoto 0.01% 10000 1001 89
Takashi Ogiso 1.99% 50 34 21
Tatsunori Shogenji 3.21% 31 34 0.30% 72 -0.3 Unibet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Terumichi Kakazu 0.52% 192 111 86
Todd Baek 0.22% 455 301 46
Tomoharu Otsuki 2.66% 38 23 64
Tomohiro Ishizaka 1.43% 70 51 46
Tomohiro Kondo 0.05% 2000 551 64
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.18% 556 301 46
Toru Taniguchi 0.01% 10000 1001 94
Toshiki Bando 0.15% 667 201 77
Tsubasa Ukita 0.17% 588 226 93
Yamato Hatta 0.15% 667 351 38
Yoshinori Fujimoto 0.41% 244 131 38
Yosuke Tsukada 0.68% 147 301 0.30% 62 -0.3 Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Young-Han Song 3.60% 28 23 59
Yujiro Ohori 0.53% 189 126 82
Yuki Furukawa 0.09% 1111 551 96
Yuki Inamori 1.07% 93 71 10
Yuki Moriyama 0.10% 1000 501 29
Yuki Shino 0.13% 769 501 64
Yusaku Hosono 2.24% 45 36 10
Yusaku Miyazato 0.37% 270 301 59
Yusuke Sakamoto 1.14% 88 71 29
Yuta Ikeda 0.16% 625 176 21
Yuta Kawakami 0.18% 556 351 64
Yuta Kinoshita 0.33% 303 201 89
Yuta Sugiura 2.31% 43 26 72
Yuta Uetake 0.20% 500 251 51
Yuto Katsumata 0.20% 500 401 38
Yuwa Kosaihira 1.57% 64 67 0.10% 3 0.775 BetMGM: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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