Simulation Results: Dunlop Phoenix Tournament

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 0.55% 182 161 39
Alejandro Del Rey 1.41% 71 36 31
Amuro Yoshiyuki 0.72% 139 161 0.10% 68 -0.1 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brad Kennedy 0.86% 116 101 62
Carson Bacha 0.28% 357 101 62
Daijiro Izumida 0.77% 130 101 29
Davis Shore 0.82% 122 26 29
Fumihiro Ebine 0.02% 5000 1501 61
Guntaek Koh 0.33% 303 201 82
Hideki Matsuyama 7.81% 13 4.35 5
Hideto Tanihara 0.36% 278 126 39
Hiroshi Iwata 2.00% 50 51 8
Hyun-Woo Ryu 0.45% 222 151 53
Jbe Kruger 0.08% 1250 401 68
Jiho Yang 0.06% 1667 401 44
Justin De Los Santos 0.52% 192 151 31
Kazuki Yasumori 0.40% 250 251 62
Kensei Hirata 2.03% 49 31 22
Kodai Ichihara 0.18% 556 301 62
Kohei Okada 0.98% 102 101 5
Koshiro Maeda 0.34% 294 226 13
Kosuke Suzuki 0.30% 333 501 0.10% 78 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kota Kaneko 5.13% 19 17 44
Kunihiro Kamii 0.33% 303 351 84
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.23% 435 101 72
Masayuki Yamashita 0.47% 213 401 0.20% 72 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Hendry 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 68 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mikiya Akutsu 0.59% 169 126 26
Mikumu Horikawa 4.19% 24 23 2
Naoyuki Kataoka 1.27% 79 81 58
Neal Shipley 2.18% 46 16 13
Nick Dunlap 2.34% 43 34 22
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.10% 1000 351 76
Ren Yonezawa 2.83% 35 46 0.70% 53 -0.7 Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Riki Kawamoto 1.69% 59 34 2
Rintaro Nakano 0.11% 909 401 62
Ryo Ishikawa 3.21% 31 29 20
Ryo Katsumata 1.83% 55 51 13
Ryosuke Kinoshita 4.14% 24 26 0.30% 5 0.0625 Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryota Wakahara 0.05% 2000 501 44
Ryuichi Oiwa 0.84% 119 151 0.20% 31 -0.2 Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryunosuke Furukawa 0.75% 133 101 31
Ryutaro Nagano 2.08% 48 61 0.40% 31 -0.4 Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sanghee Lee 0.71% 141 67 13
Satoshi Hara 0.38% 263 176 31
Satoshi Kodaira 1.35% 74 46 53
Sejung Hiramoto 0.58% 172 141 39
Shaun Norris 1.86% 54 51 83
Shugo Imahira 3.01% 33 23 11
Shunya Takeyasu 0.28% 357 351 31
Suguru Shimoke 1.10% 91 51 49
Taichi Nabetani 0.84% 119 101 44
Taiga Nagano 0.93% 108 111 22
Taiga Semikawa 5.13% 19 23 0.80% 8 -0.8 Unibet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiga Sugihara 0.11% 909 351 62
Taihei Sato 2.78% 36 34 22
Taiki Yoshida 3.48% 29 26 13
Taisei Shimizu 1.37% 73 91 0.30% 39 -0.3 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taisei Yamada 0.25% 400 401 43
Takahiro Hataji 0.24% 417 251 49
Takanori Konishi 0.43% 233 251 26
Takashi Ogiso 2.39% 42 41 26
Tatsunori Shogenji 2.03% 49 67 0.50% 2 3.875 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Terumichi Kakazu 0.26% 385 201 72
Todd Baek 0.24% 417 201 60
Tomoharu Otsuki 1.58% 63 71 0.20% 31 -0.2 Spreadex: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tomohiro Ishizaka 1.60% 63 76 0.30% 20 -0.3 Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tomohiro Kondo 0.04% 2500 1001 80
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.20% 500 401 44
Toru Taniguchi 0.00% 10000 2501 53
Tsubasa Ukita 0.05% 2000 501 77
Yosuke Tsukada 0.38% 263 501 0.20% 1 62.5 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Young-Han Song 2.62% 38 51 0.70% 72 -0.7 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yujiro Ohori 0.70% 143 151 51
Yuki Inamori 1.01% 99 101 68
Yuki Shino 0.12% 833 751 78
Yusaku Hosono 2.51% 40 41 0.10% 13 -0.1 Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yusaku Miyazato 0.33% 303 301 8
Yushi Ito 0.38% 263 501 0.20% 51 -0.2 BetVictor: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yusuke Sakamoto 0.70% 143 101 11
Yuta Ikeda 0.17% 588 251 13
Yuta Kinoshita 0.07% 1429 501 80
Yuta Uetake 0.14% 714 501 59
Yuwa Kosaihira 1.60% 63 56 53

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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