Simulation Results: Panasonic Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 1.09% 92 46 73
Akio Sadakata 0.04% 2500 601 107
Brad Kennedy 1.47% 68 71 0.10% 25 -0.1 Star Sports: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daijiro Izumida 1.14% 88 51 25
Daiki Imano 0.17% 588 301 101
Daisuke Kataoka 0.25% 400 25
Genki Okada 0.23% 435 201 47
Genzo Tokimatsu 0.35% 286 501 0.20% 84 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Guntaek Koh 0.47% 213 126 25
Haruto Uchiyama 0.05% 2000 601 62
Hideto Kobukuro 0.05% 2000 601 119
Hiroki Abe 0.02% 5000 751 93
Hiroki Tanaka 0.13% 769 351 62
Hiroshi Iwata 1.50% 67 56 33
Hirotaka Ashizawa 0.01% 10000 601 104
Hirotaro Naito 0.39% 256 201 116
Hyun-Woo Ryu 0.89% 112 126 0.10% 73 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Itsuki Kurokawa 0.07% 1429 501 47
Jiei Kawai 0.00% 10000 601 84
Jigen Serizawa 0.14% 714 251 62
Jiho Yang 0.13% 769 351 25
Justin De Los Santos 1.04% 96 101 0.10% 113 -0.1 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kaito Suzuki 0.18% 556 201 41
Kazuki Higa 5.43% 18 12 62
Kazuki Yasumori 0.44% 227 201 14
Kazuma Manabe 0.03% 3333 1001 84
Kento Yamawaki 0.18% 556 226 62
Kinjiro Kato 0.04% 2500 601 93
Kodai Ichihara 0.37% 270 111 107
Kohei Okada 1.41% 71 61 62
Koichi Kitamura 0.05% 2000 601 73
Koki Furuta 0.03% 3333 251 84
Kosei Takeyama 0.09% 1111 401 60
Koshin Nagasaki 0.00% 10000 751 84
Koshiro Maeda 0.83% 120 67 37
Kosuke Sunagawa 0.43% 233 141 41
Kosuke Suzuki 1.10% 91 81 101
Kunihiro Kamii 0.37% 270 501 0.20% 37 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyo Morishita 0.07% 1429 601 62
Masaki Matsumoto 0.04% 2500 1001 73
Masashi Hidaka 0.07% 1429 601 52
Masayuki Yamashita 0.15% 667 501 7
Michael Hendry 0.48% 208 201 73
Mikiya Akutsu 1.86% 54 41 41
Mikumu Horikawa 2.78% 36 29 2
Naoyuki Kataoka 0.83% 120 61 4
Nicklaus Chiam 0.13% 769 226 84
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.10% 1000 401 57
Ren Yonezawa 3.21% 31 19 7
Riki Kawamoto 3.78% 26 15 7
Ryo Katsumata 1.62% 62 81 0.40% 1 19.2 Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryoma Iwai 0.30% 333 201 93
Ryosuke Kinoshita 3.10% 32 31 4
Ryuichi Oiwa 1.54% 65 51 46
Ryuji Nozawa 0.08% 1250 501 104
Ryunosuke Furukawa 1.41% 71 46 101
Ryusuke Sakurai 0.01% 10000 1001 93
Ryutaro Nagano 2.76% 36 36 7
Satoshi Hara 0.45% 222 126 25
Satoshi Kodaira 0.81% 123 71 4
Sejung Hiramoto 0.52% 192 201 59
Shaun Norris 3.82% 26 15 33
Shinnosuke Tanaka 0.02% 5000 501 115
Shintaro Ban 0.14% 714 276 54
Shota Ueda 0.00% 10000 1001 117
Shotaro Matsuoka 0.18% 556 1001 0.10% 112 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shun Niimura 0.05% 2000 601 73
Shunya Takeyasu 0.74% 135 126 107
Soma Mihara 0.00% 10000 1001 104
Suguru Shimoke 0.83% 120 71 25
Taichi Kimura 0.14% 714 301 73
Taichi Nabetani 0.65% 154 111 14
Taichiro Ideriha 0.39% 256 141 14
Taiga Nagano 1.39% 72 71 33
Taiga Semikawa 7.36% 14 9 7
Taiga Sugihara 0.45% 222 141 41
Taihei Sato 1.23% 81 67 33
Taiki Yoshida 2.00% 50 31 37
Taisei Shimizu 1.90% 53 29 62
Taisei Yamada 0.18% 556 401 73
Takahiro Hataji 0.45% 222 126 37
Takanori Konishi 0.77% 130 151 0.10% 21 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takara Oshima 0.15% 667 351 93
Takashi Ogiso 2.28% 44 41 2
Takeru Michiue 0.00% 10000 1001 118
Takuya Higa 0.01% 10000 107
Tatsunori Shogenji 4.72% 21 19 14
Tatsuya Kodai 0.12% 833 151 21
Terumichi Kakazu 0.37% 270 176 56
Todd Baek 0.31% 323 301 14
Tomoharu Otsuki 3.08% 32 26 7
Tomohiro Ishizaka 1.14% 88 67 14
Tomohiro Kondo 0.03% 3333 601 62
Tomoya Yuzawa 0.00% 10000 61
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.29% 345 176 84
Toru Taniguchi 0.00% 10000 601 73
Toshiki Bando 0.20% 500 401 47
Toshinori Muto 0.07% 1429 601 84
Tsubasa Ukita 0.11% 909 351 7
Yamato Hatta 0.12% 833 751 113
Yoshinori Fujimoto 0.39% 256 201 62
Yosuke Tsukada 0.80% 125 151 0.10% 93 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Young-Han Song 3.51% 28 16 21
Yujiro Ohori 0.96% 104 71 21
Yuki Furukawa 0.13% 769 751 73
Yuki Inamori 2.42% 41 51 0.50% 47 -0.5 Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Kajimura 0.18% 556 151 54
Yuki Moriyama 0.14% 714 501 58
Yuki Shino 0.20% 500 351 62
Yusaku Hosono 2.10% 48 41 25
Yusaku Miyazato 0.44% 227 126 73
Yusuke Sakamoto 1.14% 88 101 0.20% 14 -0.2 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Ikeda 0.26% 385 201 52
Yuta Kawakami 0.27% 370 301 84
Yuta Kinoshita 0.15% 667 601 47
Yuta Sugiura 2.49% 40 29 41
Yuta Uetake 0.19% 526 301 93
Yuto Iwasaki 0.00% 10000 1001 107
Yuto Katsumata 0.21% 476 251 93
Yuwa Kosaihira 1.67% 60 51 119

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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