Simulation Results: Nippon Series JT Cup

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Hiroshi Iwata 2.12% 47 34 11
Kazuki Higa 7.15% 14 17 1.30% 21 -1.3 QuinnBet: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keita Nakajima 7.69% 13 5.5 23
Kota Kaneko 6.03% 17 17 0.20% 7 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 16/1, 4pl, 1/4
Mikiya Akutsu 1.25% 80 91 0.20% 9 -0.2 QuinnBet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mikumu Horikawa 5.18% 19 19 9
Naoyuki Kataoka 2.04% 49 41 15
Ren Yonezawa 3.71% 27 41 1.30% 11 -1.3 QuinnBet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryo Katsumata 3.23% 31 29 29
Ryosuke Kinoshita 5.46% 18 14 13
Ryuichi Oiwa 2.56% 39 81 1.30% 25 -1.3 BetMGM: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Sanghee Lee 1.13% 88 41 13
Satoshi Hara 0.52% 192 201 19
Shugo Imahira 4.21% 24 26 0.40% 7 -0.4 QuinnBet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Suguru Shimoke 1.74% 57 61 0.10% 21 -0.1 QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiga Nagano 1.31% 76 81 0.10% 26 -0.1 BetMGM: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Taiga Semikawa 8.91% 11 11 6
Taihei Sato 3.71% 27 21 16
Taiki Yoshida 4.68% 21 21 3
Taisei Shimizu 1.49% 67 81 0.30% 26 -0.3 BetMGM: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Takanori Konishi 0.70% 143 161 0.10% 23 -0.1 QuinnBet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takashi Ogiso 2.79% 36 34 1
Takumi Kanaya 8.33% 12 6 5
Tomoyo Ikemura 2.09% 48 61 0.50% 30 -0.5 QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yosuke Asaji 1.60% 63 67 0.10% 16 -0.1 QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yosuke Tsukada 1.16% 86 101 0.20% 19 -0.2 QuinnBet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Young-Han Song 3.50% 29 34 0.60% 4 2.175 QuinnBet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yusaku Hosono 3.03% 33 34 0.10% 2 0.3625 QuinnBet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yusuke Sakamoto 0.92% 109 101 16
Yuwa Kosaihira 1.77% 56 71 0.40% 28 -0.4 QuinnBet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
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Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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