Simulation Results: Mizuno Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	1.07%	93	56		16
Akira Endo	0.01%	10000	1501		99
Amuro Yoshiyuki	0.26%	385	176		132
Aoki Takano	0.06%	1667	501		61
Chisato Takamiya	0.01%	10000	1001		99
Dai Takeuchi	0.02%	5000	751		66
Daijiro Izumida	0.64%	156	131		57
Daiki Imano	0.47%	213	111		110
Daisuke Kataoka	0.34%	294	151		53
Genki Okada	0.21%	476	301		66
Genzo Tokimatsu	0.19%	526	501		129
Haruka Hachikawa	0.02%	5000	1251		88
Haruta Asai	0.01%	10000	601		129
Hikaru Yuhara	0.06%	1667	601		110
Hiroki Mori	0.01%	10000	2001		37
Hiroshi Iwata	1.51%	66	67		66
Hirotaro Naito	0.29%	345	601	0.10%	29	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hokuto Yamazaki	0.02%	5000	1001		125
Hyun-Woo Ryu	0.92%	109	71		99
Jinichiro Kozuma	1.87%	53	26		14
Jo Aoki	0.06%	1667	501		66
Justin De Los Santos	0.67%	149	91		110
Kaigo Tamaki	0.18%	556	201		99
Kaito Onishi	0.69%	145	71		88
Kaito Suzuki	0.09%	1111	426		7
Katsuhiro Kushiyama	0.07%	1429	601		119
Kazuki Higa	2.96%	34	23		4
Kazuki Yasumori	0.66%	152	111		42
Kazuma Manabe	0.05%	2000	751		42
Keigo Takehara	0.08%	1250	501		128
Keishou Nakano	0.00%	10000	601		125
Kenya Nakayama	0.09%	1111	601		66
Kodai Aoyama	0.06%	1667	401		66
Kodai Ichihara	0.28%	357	226		82
Kohei Okada	1.06%	94	41		16
Koichiro Furuse	0.23%	435	251		42
Kosei Takeyama	0.23%	435	201		88
Koshiro Maeda	0.96%	104	56		9
Kosuke Sunagawa	0.99%	101	81		37
Kosuke Suzuki	0.49%	204	201		48
Kouki Tomimoto	0.05%	2000	1251		99
Kunihiro Nakashima	0.04%	2500	1001		88
Kyohei Hayashi	0.00%	10000	1251		129
Leo Maruo	0.08%	1250	601		119
Mao Ishizaki	0.05%	2000	751		82
Masashi Hidaka	0.07%	1429	1251		110
Masaya Hattori	0.12%	833	251		16
Masayuki Yamashita	0.33%	303	141		42
Michael Hendry	0.59%	169	56		60
Mikiya Akutsu	1.69%	59	56		66
Mikumu Horikawa	2.49%	40	26		122
Naoyuki Kataoka	0.65%	154	131		23
Rakhyun Cho	0.12%	833	301		110
Ren Yonezawa	2.58%	39	29		2
Riki Alexader Ohara	0.00%	10000	1001		61
Riki Kawamoto	2.79%	36	23		48
Rintaro Nakano	0.49%	204	81		20
Ryo Katsumata	2.00%	50	34		11
Ryoma Iwai	0.18%	556	301		29
Ryosuke Kinoshita	4.11%	24	17		4
Ryota Okumatsu	0.01%	10000	1251		127
Ryota Wakahara	0.18%	556	376		66
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.85%	118	81		82
Ryunosuke Furukawa	1.60%	63	51		23
Ryutaro Nagano	3.40%	29	26		2
Sanghee Lee	0.51%	196	111		58
Satoshi Hara	0.36%	278	301		88
Satoshi Kodaira	1.06%	94	67		4
Sejung Hiramoto	1.52%	66	61		48
Shaun Norris	2.95%	34	21		1
Shintaro Ban	0.27%	370	426		88
Shohei Oda	0.41%	244	151		37
Shota Ueki	0.12%	833	601		66
Shotaro Tanaka	0.13%	769	401		88
Shu Fukuzumi	0.58%	172	101		66
Shugo Imahira	3.78%	26	17		20
Shunya Takeyasu	0.24%	417	376		23
Steve Sugimoto	0.28%	357	161		82
Suguru Shimoke	0.95%	105	111		99
Taichi Kho	1.09%	92	56		66
Taichi Nabetani	1.53%	65	46		48
Taichi Teshima	0.02%	5000	1251		110
Taichiro Ideriha	0.64%	156	76		11
Taiga Kobayashi	0.21%	476	201		20
Taiga Mishima	0.03%	3333	1001		61
Taiga Nagano	0.84%	119	61		110
Taiga Semikawa	4.25%	24	17		99
Taiga Sugihara	0.35%	286	101		66
Taiga Yamamoto	0.30%	333	201		66
Taihei Sato	3.23%	31	26		14
Taiki Otsuka	0.07%	1429	501		66
Taiki Yoshida	2.47%	40	41		99
Taiko Nishiyama	0.82%	122	81		65
Taisei Shimizu	1.29%	78	51		82
Taisei Yamada	0.32%	313	376	0.10%	48	-0.1	Unibet: 375/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takahiro Hataji	0.46%	217	251	0.10%	29	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takanori Konishi	0.60%	167	101		37
Takara Oshima	0.23%	435	426		53
Takashi Ogiso	1.80%	56	56		66
Takaya Ozaki	0.05%	2000	251		124
Tatsunori Shogenji	1.34%	75	91	0.20%	7	-0.2	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tatsuya Kodai	0.23%	435	426		88
Terumichi Kakazu	0.42%	238	181		99
Tomoharu Otsuki	1.27%	79	71		42
Tomohiro Ishizaka	2.77%	36	29		122
Tomohiro Kondo	0.07%	1429	1001		61
Tomoyasu Sugiyama	0.64%	156	181	0.10%	29	-0.1	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tomoyo Ikemura	2.30%	43	31		16
Toshihide Kato	0.03%	3333	1251		119
Toshinori Muto	0.13%	769	601		88
Tristan Rohrbaugh	0.04%	2500	801		53
Tsubasa Ukita	0.26%	385	201		34
Xuewen Luo	0.05%	2000			66
Yoshinori Fujimoto	2.16%	46	26		34
Yosuke Tsukada	0.80%	125	151	0.10%	99	-0.1	Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yousei Goya	0.01%	10000	1251		110
Yu Kashiwamata	0.00%	10000	601		88
Yuichi Teruya	0.18%	556	376		9
Yujiro Ohori	0.96%	104	81		11
Yuki Inamori	1.61%	62	91	0.50%	29	-0.5	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Kajimura	0.09%	1111	501		23
Yuki Moriyama	0.15%	667	801		88
Yuki Shino	0.20%	500	426		110
Yusaku Hosono	3.83%	26	16		99
Yusaku Miyazato	1.13%	88	111	0.20%	23	-0.2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yushi Ito	0.46%	217	161		34
Yusuke Sakamoto	0.64%	156	101		42
Yuta Ikeda	0.97%	103	71		37
Yuta Kawakami	0.12%	833	1251		82
Yuta Uetake	0.13%	769	126		53
Yuto Katsumata	0.25%	400	176		58
Yuwa Kosaihira	0.71%	141	101		23

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Yuki Inamori	1.61%	62	91	0.50%	29	-2	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Tatsunori Shogenji	1.34%	75	91	0.20%	7	-2	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Yusaku Miyazato	1.13%	88	111	0.20%	23	-2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
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The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.