Simulation Results: Maezawa Cup

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	2.25%	44	23		32
Akira Endo	0.03%	3333	751		57
Aoki Takano	0.24%	417	201		70
Atomu Shigenaga	0.17%	588	351		67
Azuma Yano	0.04%	2500	601		82
Brad Kennedy	0.96%	104	111	0.10%	32	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dai Takeuchi	0.07%	1429	1251		92
Daijiro Izumida	0.79%	127	111		27
Daiki Imano	0.77%	130	61		27
Daisuke Kataoka	0.18%	556	176		32
Genki Okada	0.24%	417	226		53
Genzo Tokimatsu	0.42%	238	351	0.10%	63	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Haruto Uchiyama	0.13%	769	301		42
Hikaru Yuhara	0.09%	1111	1001		27
Hiroshi Iwata	2.62%	38	61	1.00%	97	-1	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hirotaka Hideshima	0.00%	10000	1001		94
Hyun-Woo Ryu	0.88%	114	101		32
Jinichiro Kozuma	2.60%	38	26		5
Jo Aoki	0.29%	345	276		86
Justin De Los Santos	1.56%	64	41		53
Kaigo Tamaki	0.19%	526	176		24
Kaito Onishi	0.87%	115	111		32
Kaito Suzuki	0.09%	1111	351		70
Kazuki Yasumori	0.63%	159	111		42
Keigo Takehara	0.05%	2000	751		76
Kodai Aoyama	0.05%	2000	251		70
Kodai Ichihara	0.60%	167	161		27
Kohei Okada	1.00%	100	61		97
Koichiro Furuse	0.54%	185	141		42
Kosei Takeyama	0.15%	667	351		15
Koshiro Maeda	0.85%	118	91		32
Kosuke Sunagawa	0.43%	233	141		5
Kosuke Suzuki	0.64%	156	141		83
Kunihiro Nakashima	0.15%	667	751		76
Leo Maruo	0.20%	500	251		83
Masatsugu Morofuji	0.02%	5000	1251		67
Masaya Hattori	0.63%	159	201	0.10%	90	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Hendry	2.79%	36	23		63
Mikiya Akutsu	1.61%	62	61		5
Mikumu Horikawa	4.21%	24	15		11
Minami Kiyomoto	0.00%	10000	1001		92
Naoto Nakanishi	0.05%	2000	601		42
Naoyuki Kataoka	1.78%	56	61	0.10%	97	-0.1	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rakhyun Cho	0.54%	185	126		32
Ren Yonezawa	3.48%	29	19		1
Riki Kawamoto	2.96%	34	23		15
Rintaro Nakano	1.07%	93	61		24
Ryo Katsumata	3.21%	31	17		57
Ryoma Iwai	0.20%	500	201		61
Ryota Okumatsu	0.00%	10000	1251		76
Ryota Wakahara	0.36%	278	176		42
Ryuichi Oiwa	1.34%	75	81	0.10%	76	-0.1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryunosuke Furukawa	0.94%	106	81		8
Ryutaro Nagano	2.34%	43	26		42
Satoshi Hara	0.60%	167	111		76
Satoshi Kodaira	0.72%	139	67		42
Sejung Hiramoto	0.34%	294	176		20
Serena Aoki	0.00%	10000	301		76
Shingo Katayama	0.20%	500	351		63
Shinichi Yokota	0.01%	10000	601		90
Shohei Oda	0.68%	147	126		61
Shotaro Tanaka	0.15%	667	226		86
Shu Fukuzumi	0.96%	104	61		15
Shugo Imahira	5.77%	17	9.5		3
Shunya Takeyasu	0.64%	156	201	0.10%	70	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steve Sugimoto	0.11%	909	351		32
Suguru Shimoke	1.29%	78	91	0.20%	32	-0.2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taichi Nabetani	1.11%	90	61		15
Taichiro Ideriha	0.39%	256	126		56
Taiga Mishima	0.10%	1000	351		86
Taiga Nagano	1.70%	59	51		11
Taiga Semikawa	5.86%	17	9.5		11
Taiga Sugihara	1.00%	100	67		53
Taiga Yamamoto	0.27%	370	201		11
Taihei Sato	2.01%	50	46		8
Taiki Yoshida	3.03%	33	26		8
Taiko Nishiyama	1.14%	88	67		57
Takahiro Hataji	0.17%	588	276		32
Takanori Konishi	0.98%	102	51		24
Takeji Gushi	0.00%	10000	1251		89
Terumichi Kakazu	0.26%	385	201		42
Toa Yokoyama	0.00%	10000	226		95
Tomoharu Otsuki	1.72%	58	41		67
Yoshimasa Toya	0.00%	10000	601		95
Yoshinori Fujimoto	0.98%	102	71		3
Yosuke Tsukada	1.21%	83	91	0.10%	63	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Young-Han Song	4.71%	21	14		2
Yuichi Teruya	0.15%	667	301		20
Yujiro Ohori	1.47%	68	161	0.90%	20	-0.9	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Inamori	3.05%	33	41	0.60%	42	-0.6	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Kajimura	0.19%	526	351		75
Yuki Moriyama	0.20%	500	401		57
Yuki Shino	0.44%	227	401	0.20%	20	-0.2	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yusaku Hosono	3.29%	30	17		42
Yusaku Miyazato	0.49%	204	151		15
Yushi Ito	0.62%	161	101		42
Yusuke Sakamoto	2.29%	44	51	0.30%	100	-0.3	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Ikeda	1.09%	92	71		27
Yuta Uetake	0.21%	476	251		83
Yuto Katsumata	0.16%	625	201		70

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Hiroshi Iwata	2.62%	38	61	1.00%	97	-2	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Yujiro Ohori	1.47%	68	161	0.90%	20	-2	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Yuki Inamori	3.05%	33	41	0.60%	42	-2	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.