Simulation Results: Maezawa Cup

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 1.06% 94 51 47
Atomu Shigenaga 0.20% 500 251 53
Azuma Yano 0.03% 3333 751 81
Brad Kennedy 0.91% 110 81 47
Daijiro Izumida 0.80% 125 126 53
Daisuke Kataoka 0.31% 323 251 68
Fumihiro Ebine 0.25% 400 251 68
Genzo Tokimatsu 0.09% 1111 751 27
Guntaek Koh 0.45% 222 81 9
Hideto Kobukuro 0.11% 909 501 68
Hideto Tanihara 0.92% 109 67 60
Hikaru Teranishi 0.00% 10000 1501 91
Hiroshi Iwata 2.52% 40 34 15
Hirotaka Hideshima 0.00% 10000 2001 100
Hirotaro Naito 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 89 -0.1 VBet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyun-Woo Ryu 1.01% 99 126 0.20% 60 -0.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jbe Kruger 0.16% 625 301 85
Jiho Yang 0.29% 345 301 77
Justin De Los Santos 1.01% 99 126 0.20% 41 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Juvic Pagunsan 0.52% 192 141 65
Kazuki Higa 2.33% 43 17 41
Kodai Ichihara 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 18 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kohei Okada 0.95% 105 126 0.20% 77 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Koichi Kitamura 0.07% 1429 501 18
Kosei Takeyama 0.17% 588 401 41
Koshiro Maeda 1.05% 95 141 0.30% 68 -0.3 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kosuke Suzuki 1.98% 51 51 60
Kota Kaneko 2.72% 37 29 18
Koumei Oda 0.08% 1250 601 47
Kunihiro Kamii 0.51% 196 201 35
Masahiro Kuramoto 0.00% 10000 1501 99
Masashi Hidaka 0.04% 2500 1001 12
Masatsugu Morofuji 0.01% 10000 1001 68
Michael Hendry 0.48% 208 81 3
Mikiya Akutsu 1.37% 73 67 57
Mikumu Horikawa 3.39% 29 19 12
Minato Oshima 0.06% 1667 1251 88
Nana Suganuma 0.00% 10000 501 89
Naoto Nakanishi 0.02% 5000 1001 77
Naoyuki Kataoka 2.46% 41 31 15
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.17% 588 251 41
Ren Yonezawa 2.19% 46 21 6
Riki Kawamoto 1.04% 96 51 12
Ryo Ishikawa 2.07% 48 29 27
Ryo Katsumata 0.95% 105 141 0.20% 18 -0.2 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryosuke Kinoshita 4.44% 23 17 6
Ryuichi Oiwa 1.12% 89 67 9
Ryutaro Nagano 1.23% 81 67 53
Sanghee Lee 2.40% 42 31 4
Satoshi Kodaira 1.67% 60 56 41
Scott Vincent 2.24% 45 15 9
Sejung Hiramoto 0.34% 294 251 94
Shaun Norris 8.43% 12 11 27
Shingo Katayama 0.16% 625 301 65
Shugo Imahira 2.45% 41 23 2
Shun Niimura 0.07% 1429 251 27
Shunya Takeyasu 2.16% 46 36 35
Souta Toriumi 0.01% 10000 751 91
Suguru Shimoke 1.49% 67 67 35
Taichi Nabetani 2.48% 40 51 0.50% 68 -0.5 Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taichi Teshima 0.02% 5000 601 77
Taiga Nagano 1.42% 70 51 27
Taiga Sugihara 0.73% 137 126 35
Taihei Sato 1.80% 56 51 60
Taiki Yoshida 2.02% 50 41 18
Taisei Shimizu 2.36% 42 23 18
Taisei Yamada 0.13% 769 301 35
Takahiro Hataji 0.63% 159 101 98
Takanori Konishi 0.73% 137 126 1
Takara Oshima 0.17% 588 176 27
Takashi Ogiso 0.81% 123 51 18
Takeji Gushi 0.00% 10000 2001 97
Tatsunori Shogenji 2.43% 41 34 4
Tatsuya Kodai 0.21% 476 301 57
Terumichi Kakazu 0.46% 217 176 85
Todd Baek 0.39% 256 201 84
Tomoharu Otsuki 0.98% 102 81 68
Tomohiro Ishizaka 2.09% 48 36 57
Tomohiro Kondo 0.12% 833 401 47
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.65% 154 201 0.20% 68 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tomoyo Ikemura 2.25% 44 34 47
Toru Taniguchi 0.01% 10000 1501 96
Tsubasa Ukita 0.41% 244 251 18
Yamato Hatta 0.34% 294 251 81
Yoshimasa Toya 0.00% 10000 2001 94
Yosuke Asaji 0.84% 119 126 15
Yosuke Tsukada 1.00% 100 126 0.20% 27 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Young-Han Song 2.24% 45 36 68
Yujiro Ohori 0.41% 244 161 35
Yuki Furukawa 0.26% 385 151 91
Yuki Inamori 2.39% 42 46 0.20% 27 -0.2 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Moriyama 0.04% 2500 751 81
Yuki Shino 0.26% 385 401 41
Yusaku Hosono 1.47% 68 51 47
Yusaku Miyazato 0.16% 625 226 65
Yusuke Sakamoto 1.57% 64 61 6
Yuta Ikeda 0.65% 154 176 0.10% 60 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Kinoshita 0.11% 909 501 18
Yuta Sugiura 0.80% 125 81 53
Yuwa Kosaihira 0.60% 167 176 85

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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