Simulation Results: Kansai Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	1.76%	57	26		60
Akira Endo	0.02%	5000	1251		122
Aoki Takano	0.15%	667	276		132
Aran Higashi	0.00%	10000	501		66
Atsushi Yuge	0.04%	2500			66
Azuma Toya	0.00%	10000	401		140
Dai Takeuchi	0.04%	2500	601		62
Daijiro Izumida	0.86%	116	126	0.10%	43	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daiki Imano	0.73%	137	91		21
Daiki Kanemoto	0.00%	10000	401		145
Daisuke Kataoka	0.54%	185	91		66
Eita Yamamoto	0.00%	10000	751		96
Genki Okada	0.43%	233	251		86
Genzo Tokimatsu	0.32%	313	301		86
Hikaru Ando	0.00%	10000	251		135
Hikaru Yuhara	0.17%	588	601		132
Hiroki Hamabuchi	0.00%	10000	501		61
Hiroki Ishiguchi	0.02%	5000	226		96
Hiroki Mori	0.02%	5000	1501		122
Hiroo Akitaka	0.00%	10000	401		145
Hiroshi Iwata	1.63%	61	51		17
Hirotaka Ashizawa	0.01%	10000	1001		109
Hirotaro Naito	0.28%	357	501	0.10%	40	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hiroto Tomita	0.00%	10000	251		138
Hiroya Kubota	0.01%	10000	501		49
Hokuto Yamazaki	0.04%	2500	751		128
Hyun-Woo Ryu	1.33%	75	81	0.10%	36	-0.1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jinichiro Kozuma	2.09%	48	17		27
Jo Aoki	0.19%	526	401		122
John Oda	0.09%	1111	351		59
Justin De Los Santos	0.75%	133	81		36
Kaigo Tamaki	0.40%	250	101		86
Kaito Onishi	1.00%	100	151	0.30%	79	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kaito Suzuki	0.19%	526	251		66
Katsuhiro Kushiyama	0.16%	625	401		79
Kazuki Yasumori	0.68%	147	176	0.10%	21	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kazuto Takekawa	0.00%	10000	401		135
Keigo Takehara	0.12%	833	501		46
Keisuke Sato	0.03%	3333	401		117
Ko Shibukawa	0.01%	10000	601		66
Kodai Aoyama	0.16%	625	251		62
Kodai Ichihara	0.33%	303	201		21
Kohei Okada	0.79%	127	126		27
Koichiro Furuse	0.39%	256	201		49
Komei Onishi	0.02%	5000	301		122
Koshiro Maeda	0.97%	103	81		27
Kosuke Sunagawa	0.85%	118	151	0.20%	6	-0.2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kosuke Suzuki	0.30%	333	201		66
Kotarou Ogawa	0.02%	5000	301		140
Kunihiro Nakashima	0.11%	909	751		96
Leo Maruo	0.14%	714	401		86
Masahiro Kuramoto	0.01%	10000	1501		128
Masaya Hattori	0.16%	625	176		43
Masayuki Yamashita	0.29%	345	201		12
Mikiya Akutsu	2.30%	43	34		66
Mikumu Horikawa	3.56%	28	13		27
Minagi Tamaki	0.00%	10000	351		96
Mizuki Hirase	0.00%	10000	401		104
Motoki Tanaka	0.05%	2000	751		57
Naoki Sekito	0.15%	667	226		49
Naoyuki Kataoka	0.69%	145	67		104
Nobuaki Oda	0.02%	5000	401		117
Rakhyun Cho	0.26%	385	251		109
Ren Yonezawa	3.01%	33	19		66
Riki Kawamoto	3.13%	32	26		46
Rinkei Shinzato	0.00%	10000	401		109
Rintaro Nagatomo	0.00%	10000	401		144
Rintaro Nakano	0.49%	204	71		21
Rui Umeda	0.00%	10000	501		65
Ryo Katsumata	2.00%	50	26		66
Ryoma Iwai	0.31%	323	276		53
Ryosuke Kinoshita	4.40%	23	17		147
Ryota Okumatsu	0.02%	5000	1001		109
Ryota Wakahara	0.30%	333	251		109
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.59%	169	161		17
Ryuji Fujii	0.00%	10000	401		138
Ryunosuke Furukawa	1.51%	66	34		27
Ryunosuke Yamada	0.00%	10000	601		122
Ryusuke Sakurai	0.02%	5000	751		128
Ryutaro Nagano	2.94%	34	34		14
Satoshi Hara	0.49%	204	201		40
Satoshi Kodaira	1.03%	97	41		27
Seigo Kida	0.01%	10000			143
Sejung Hiramoto	1.38%	72	91	0.30%	21	-0.3	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Senichiro Tanikawa	0.00%	10000	301		142
Shohei Oda	0.59%	169	176		27
Shota Ueda	0.00%	10000	751		132
Shota Ueki	0.26%	385	176		79
Shotaro Tanaka	0.25%	400	301		96
Shu Fukuzumi	0.81%	123	81		14
Shuma Higashino	0.04%	2500	301		104
Shunki Sadakata	0.00%	10000	751		109
Shunya Takeyasu	0.40%	250	301	0.10%	66	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steve Sugimoto	0.25%	400	201		6
Suguru Shimoke	1.21%	83	101	0.20%	79	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taichi Nabetani	1.59%	63	36		12
Taichiro Ideriha	0.56%	179	161		36
Taiga Fukuoka	0.09%	1111	401		86
Taiga Mishima	0.07%	1429	751		117
Taiga Nagano	1.19%	84	67		40
Taiga Semikawa	4.68%	21	17		86
Taiga Sugihara	0.51%	196	101		86
Taiga Yamamoto	0.44%	227	161		46
Taihei Sato	2.96%	34	26		6
Taiki Kimura	0.00%	10000	601		79
Taiki Otsuka	0.04%	2500			49
Taiki Yoshida	3.08%	32	19		17
Taiko Nishiyama	0.79%	127	126		4
Taisei Shimizu	1.23%	81	176	0.70%	53	-0.7	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiyo Fujiyama	0.00%	10000	751		122
Takahide Abe	0.01%	10000	751		86
Takahiro Hataji	0.58%	172	251	0.20%	66	-0.2	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takanori Konishi	0.65%	154	81		2
Takashi Ogiso	1.60%	63	41		66
Takeji Gushi	0.00%	10000	751		135
Takeru Michiue	0.00%	10000	401		109
Takumi Kobayashi	0.15%	667	276		86
Tatsunori Shogenji	1.83%	55	41
Tatsuya Kodai	0.39%	256	401	0.10%	53	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Terumichi Kakazu	0.42%	238	301	0.10%	96	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tomoharu Otsuki	1.44%	69	56		104
Tomohiro Ishizaka	2.02%	50	23		4
Tomohiro Kondo	0.14%	714	751		53
Tomoyo Ikemura	2.03%	49	51	0.10%	6	-0.1	Skybet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Toshihide Kato	0.05%	2000	1001		117
Toshiya Senba	0.00%	10000	401		109
Tristan Rohrbaugh	0.04%	2500	601		43
Tsubasa Ukita	0.32%	313	201		17
Wataru Ishikawa	0.01%	10000	1001		104
Xuewen Luo	0.09%	1111
Yoshinori Fujimoto	1.21%	83	34		1
Yosuke Tsukada	0.90%	111	126	0.10%	27	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Young-Han Song	4.85%	21	10		36
Yu Ohsawa	0.04%	2500	601		117
Yuichi Teruya	0.28%	357	301		27
Yujiro Ohori	0.97%	103	101		2
Yuki Inamori	1.88%	53	56	0.10%	66	-0.1	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Kajimura	0.17%	588	401
Yuki Moriyama	0.27%	370	501	0.10%	79	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Shino	0.43%	233	301	0.10%	96	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yusaku Hosono	3.37%	30	21		14
Yusaku Miyazato	1.10%	91	81		79
Yushi Ito	0.63%	159	101
Yusuke Ido	0.00%	10000	501		128
Yusuke Sakamoto	1.03%	97	81		57
Yuta Ikeda	0.96%	104	51		6
Yuta Kawakami	0.26%	385	751	0.10%	64	-0.1	Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Uetake	0.24%	417	251		96
Yuto Katsumata	0.32%	313	161		6
Yuwa Kosaihira	1.04%	96	81		21

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	1.38%	72	34		24
Akira Endo	0.10%	1000	201		108
Aoki Takano	0.38%	263	126		84
Aran Higashi	0.03%	3333	251		103
Atsushi Yuge	0.11%	909	201		39
Azuma Toya	0.01%	10000	151		137
Dai Takeuchi	0.20%	500	176		39
Daijiro Izumida	1.05%	95	61		39
Daiki Imano	0.81%	123	67		12
Daiki Kanemoto	0.00%	10000	151		146
Daisuke Kataoka	0.83%	120	67		128
Eita Yamamoto	0.01%	10000	251		108
Genki Okada	0.55%	182	86		66
Genzo Tokimatsu	0.64%	156	111		66
Hikaru Ando	0.00%	10000	201		128
Hikaru Yuhara	0.33%	303	111		128
Hiroki Hamabuchi	0.04%	2500	226		24
Hiroki Ishiguchi	0.08%	1250	91		128
Hiroki Mori	0.06%	1667	226		120
Hiroo Akitaka	0.00%	10000	151		144
Hiroshi Iwata	1.27%	79	51		24
Hirotaka Ashizawa	0.09%	1111	251		108
Hirotaro Naito	0.57%	175	151		66
Hiroto Tomita	0.00%	10000	111		134
Hiroya Kubota	0.08%	1250	251		108
Hokuto Yamazaki	0.11%	909	126		146
Hyun-Woo Ryu	1.39%	72	71		51
Jinichiro Kozuma	1.91%	52	31		84
Jo Aoki	0.31%	323	111		120
John Oda	0.24%	417	126		66
Justin De Los Santos	0.77%	130	56		51
Kaigo Tamaki	0.68%	147	71		84
Kaito Onishi	0.95%	105	81		66
Kaito Suzuki	0.40%	250	111		51
Katsuhiro Kushiyama	0.26%	385	141		66
Kazuki Yasumori	0.92%	109	91		51
Kazuto Takekawa	0.00%	10000	251		120
Keigo Takehara	0.34%	294	141		24
Keisuke Sato	0.10%	1000	201		137
Ko Shibukawa	0.05%	2000	251		39
Kodai Aoyama	0.40%	250	126		24
Kodai Ichihara	0.47%	213	151		2
Kohei Okada	0.95%	105	67		12
Koichiro Furuse	0.50%	200	67		51
Komei Onishi	0.12%	833	176		120
Koshiro Maeda	1.15%	87	67		1
Kosuke Sunagawa	0.82%	122	86		84
Kosuke Suzuki	0.45%	222	111		84
Kotarou Ogawa	0.08%	1250	101		66
Kunihiro Nakashima	0.24%	417	151		108
Leo Maruo	0.28%	357	151		66
Masahiro Kuramoto	0.04%	2500	301		66
Masaya Hattori	0.35%	286	91		66
Masayuki Yamashita	0.47%	213	71		2
Mikiya Akutsu	1.98%	51	41		39
Mikumu Horikawa	2.32%	43	23		8
Minagi Tamaki	0.03%	3333	176		39
Mizuki Hirase	0.03%	3333	201		108
Motoki Tanaka	0.18%	556	176		51
Naoki Sekito	0.38%	263	91		66
Naoyuki Kataoka	0.93%	108	56		39
Nobuaki Oda	0.11%	909	201		108
Rakhyun Cho	0.51%	196	101		108
Ren Yonezawa	2.04%	49	31		51
Riki Kawamoto	2.52%	40	26		66
Rinkei Shinzato	0.00%	10000	226		84
Rintaro Nagatomo	0.00%	10000	151		137
Rintaro Nakano	0.80%	125	51		12
Rui Umeda	0.02%	5000	251		51
Ryo Katsumata	1.81%	55	36		24
Ryoma Iwai	0.57%	175	111		84
Ryosuke Kinoshita	2.61%	38	36		120
Ryota Okumatsu	0.12%	833	201		84
Ryota Wakahara	0.47%	213	101		103
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.72%	139	91		51
Ryuji Fujii	0.00%	10000	251		134
Ryunosuke Furukawa	1.54%	65	41		39
Ryunosuke Yamada	0.03%	3333	251		84
Ryusuke Sakurai	0.08%	1250	201		137
Ryutaro Nagano	2.03%	49	36		120
Satoshi Hara	0.72%	139	81		2
Satoshi Kodaira	1.03%	97	41		39
Seigo Kida	0.04%	2500	226		144
Sejung Hiramoto	1.21%	83	56		24
Senichiro Tanikawa	0.06%	1667	226		128
Shohei Oda	0.83%	120	67		12
Shota Ueda	0.00%	10000	301		108
Shota Ueki	0.53%	189	111		51
Shotaro Tanaka	0.41%	244	111		103
Shu Fukuzumi	0.80%	125	51		12
Shuma Higashino	0.14%	714	141		51
Shunki Sadakata	0.00%	10000	301		134
Shunya Takeyasu	0.47%	213	126		51
Steve Sugimoto	0.56%	179	111		24
Suguru Shimoke	1.11%	90	56		108
Taichi Nabetani	1.28%	78	51		2
Taichiro Ideriha	0.79%	127	61		8
Taiga Fukuoka	0.28%	357	111		66
Taiga Mishima	0.18%	556	176		137
Taiga Nagano	1.10%	91	56		12
Taiga Semikawa	2.82%	35	29		84
Taiga Sugihara	0.77%	130	71		51
Taiga Yamamoto	0.54%	185	61		66
Taihei Sato	2.42%	41	36		24
Taiki Kimura	0.02%	5000	251		66
Taiki Otsuka	0.12%	833			103
Taiki Yoshida	2.10%	48	31		84
Taiko Nishiyama	1.03%	97	71		24
Taisei Shimizu	1.14%	88	61		108
Taiyo Fujiyama	0.01%	10000	251		137
Takahide Abe	0.06%	1667	201		51
Takahiro Hataji	0.71%	141	61		39
Takanori Konishi	0.71%	141	71		12
Takashi Ogiso	1.30%	77	46		24
Takeji Gushi	0.04%	2500	251		128
Takeru Michiue	0.01%	10000	251		120
Takumi Kobayashi	0.28%	357	101		84
Tatsunori Shogenji	1.43%	70	51
Tatsuya Kodai	0.65%	154	126		39
Terumichi Kakazu	0.67%	149	101		39
Tomoharu Otsuki	1.52%	66			84
Tomohiro Ishizaka	1.86%	54	34		24
Tomohiro Kondo	0.26%	385	141		84
Tomoyo Ikemura	1.86%	54	41		2
Toshihide Kato	0.16%	625	201		103
Toshiya Senba	0.00%	10000	201		84
Tristan Rohrbaugh	0.13%	769	151		66
Tsubasa Ukita	0.45%	222	71		12
Wataru Ishikawa	0.09%	1111	251		108
Xuewen Luo	0.26%	385
Yoshinori Fujimoto	1.09%	92	41		12
Yosuke Tsukada	1.12%	89	91		84
Young-Han Song	3.37%	30	23		8
Yu Ohsawa	0.12%	833	151		120
Yuichi Teruya	0.43%	233	101		24
Yujiro Ohori	1.17%	85	81		12
Yuki Inamori	1.44%	69	61		66
Yuki Kajimura	0.34%	294	151
Yuki Moriyama	0.56%	179	141		84
Yuki Shino	0.67%	149	101		84
Yusaku Hosono	2.66%	38	31		8
Yusaku Miyazato	1.26%	79	67		12
Yushi Ito	0.88%	114	91
Yusuke Ido	0.02%	5000	251		137
Yusuke Sakamoto	1.19%	84	51		24
Yuta Ikeda	0.99%	101	51		2
Yuta Kawakami	0.39%	256	126		84
Yuta Uetake	0.43%	233	151		51
Yuto Katsumata	0.58%	172	111		12
Yuwa Kosaihira	1.21%	83	61		24

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Taisei Shimizu	1.23%	81	176	0.70%	53	-2	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Sejung Hiramoto	1.38%	72	91	0.30%	21	-2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Kaito Onishi	1.00%	100	151	0.30%	79	-2	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.