Simulation Results: Japan Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Scott 4.81% 21 11 11
Aguri Iwasaki 0.44% 227 111 55
Akinori Yoshimura 0.00% 10000 1501 116
Daiki Hasegawa 0.04% 2500 751 92
Daiki Imano 0.09% 1111 501 84
Fumihiro Ebine 0.02% 5000 1001 65
Furuse Koichiro 0.02% 5000 601 29
Genki Okada 0.22% 455 126 96
Go Aoyama 0.00% 10000 2001 102
Harry Takis 0.00% 10000 751 43
Hideto Tanihara 0.31% 323 201 75
Hiroshi Iwata 1.02% 98 71
Hyun-Woo Ryu 0.62% 161 201 0.10% 35 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jinichiro Kozuma 0.59% 169 51 79
John Oda 0.09% 1111 1001 108
Justin De Los Santos 0.29% 345 226 23
Kaito Sato 0.26% 385 151 75
Kazuki Higa 3.35% 30 16 29
Kazuki Ishiwata 0.01% 10000 1001 108
Kazuki Yasumori 0.86% 116 111 75
Kazuma Inaba 0.00% 10000 751 116
Kazuma Manabe 0.02% 5000 1501 102
Keigo Takehara 0.00% 10000 601 112
Kensei Hirata 1.06% 94 41 17
Kenshiro Ikegami 0.01% 10000 1001 108
Kento Hishida 0.00% 10000 751 102
Kodai Ichihara 0.25% 400 326 92
Kohei Okada 0.94% 106 51 35
Koki Shiomi 0.01% 10000 2001 67
Kosei Takeyama 0.07% 1429 751 113
Koshin Nagasaki 0.00% 10000 751 59
Koshiro Maeda 0.65% 154 91 84
Kosuke Suzuki 0.69% 145 251 0.30% 84 -0.3 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kota Kaneko 2.94% 34 29 10
Kotone Sasaki 0.00% 10000 751 96
Kouki Tomimoto 0.04% 2500 1501 96
Leo Maruo 0.43% 233 161 84
Max McGreevy 3.38% 30 21 12
Michael Hendry 0.45% 222 151 54
Michio Matsumura 0.01% 10000 1501 35
Mikiya Akutsu 1.32% 76 46 35
Mikumu Horikawa 2.83% 35 34 12
Naoto Nakanishi 0.11% 909 601 61
Naoyuki Kataoka 0.56% 179 101 1
Nobuaki Oda 0.02% 5000 801 61
Ren Yonezawa 3.46% 29 18 43
Riito Mieno 0.00% 10000 2001 64
Riki Kawamoto 1.48% 68 36 4
Riku Arai 0.00% 10000 1501 79
Ryo Ishikawa 2.00% 50 46 3
Ryo Katsumata 1.35% 74 56 17
Ryo Noro 0.02% 5000 801 75
Ryosuke Kinoshita 1.85% 54 31 68
Ryuichi Oiwa 0.95% 105 111 55
Ryunosuke Furukawa 0.97% 103 101 47
Ryuta Tomari 0.00% 10000 751 119
Ryutaro Nagano 1.39% 72 67 12
Sadom Kaewkanjana 2.01% 50 19 4
Sangmoon Bae 0.23% 435 201 79
Satoshi Hara 0.33% 303 111 2
Satoshi Kodaira 0.53% 189 101 4
Sejung Hiramoto 0.37% 270 226 35
Seonghyeon Kim 2.21% 45 17 4
Shaun Norris 2.76% 36 21 68
Shiso Go 0.04% 2500 1501 113
Shohei Oda 0.00% 10000 601 68
Shota Ueki 0.32% 313 226 84
Shota Yoshimoto 0.16% 625 751 65
Shu Fukuzumi 0.43% 233 161 31
Shugo Imahira 4.43% 23 19 17
Shunya Takeyasu 0.44% 227 201 96
Shuto Sakamoto 0.06% 1667 501 35
Suguru Shimoke 0.99% 101 51 31
Taichi Nabetani 0.91% 110 91 35
Taiga Nagano 0.73% 137 126 43
Taiga Semikawa 5.22% 19 19 12
Taiga Shimizu 0.01% 10000 501 92
Taihei Sato 1.20% 83 101 0.20% 17 -0.2 Priced Up: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiki Yoshida 1.89% 53 61 0.30% 27 -0.3 Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taisei Nagasaki 0.01% 10000 601 47
Taisei Shimizu 1.09% 92 111 0.20% 4 0.95 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taisei Yamada 0.16% 625 801 27
Takahiro Hataji 0.19% 526 201 84
Takanori Konishi 0.58% 172 251 0.20% 57 -0.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Takashi Ogiso 1.89% 53 36 50
Takaya Onoda 0.07% 1429 326 61
Takumi Kanaya 7.00% 14 13 23
Takumi Kawabe 0.00% 10000 751 108
Tatsunori Nukaga 0.00% 10000 1501 84
Tatsunori Shogenji 2.36% 42 41 68
Tatsuya Kodai 0.15% 667 151 23
Terumichi Kakazu 0.37% 270 226 17
Tomoharu Otsuki 2.61% 38 26 59
Tomohiro Ishizaka 1.29% 78 67 31
Tomohiro Kondo 0.05% 2000 751 96
Tomohiro Umeyama 0.02% 5000 801 84
Tomoyo Ikemura 1.05% 95 51 79
Toshinori Muto 0.05% 2000 801 50
Tsukasa Maki 0.02% 5000 1001 102
Yoshikazu Haku 0.04% 2500 1501 96
Yoshinori Fujimoto 0.49% 204 201 31
Yoshitaka Takeya 0.01% 10000 751 57
Yosuke Asaji 0.28% 357 351 68
Yosuke Tsukada 0.29% 345 301 47
Young-Han Song 2.64% 38 31 17
Yu Ohsawa 0.00% 10000 751 102
Yuichi Teruya 0.11% 909 176 102
Yujiro Ohori 0.54% 185 121 79
Yuki Inamori 1.38% 72 67 92
Yuki Moriyama 0.06% 1667 801 68
Yuki Shino 0.15% 667 601 113
Yura Shimura 0.01% 10000 751 118
Yusaku Hosono 1.92% 52 41 50
Yusuke Sakamoto 0.83% 120 141 0.10% 35 -0.1 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yuta Ikeda 0.22% 455 151 68
Yuta Kawakami 0.14% 714 426 50
Yuta Sugiura 1.94% 52 36 23
Yuta Uetake 0.19% 526 601 12
Yuto Katsuragawa 1.10% 91 41 4
Yuwa Kosaihira 1.17% 85 81 43

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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