Simulation Results: Japan PGA Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 1.23% 81 51 52
Akifumi Kume 0.00% 10000 1251 133
Akihiro Nitta 0.01% 10000 2001 82
Daiki Imano 0.28% 357 401 33
Genki Okada 0.51% 196 201 116
Genzo Tokimatsu 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 33 -0.1 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hideto Kobukuro 0.26% 385 301 72
Hideto Tanihara 0.39% 256 151 45
Hikaru Kuroiwa 0.02% 5000 1001 116
Hiroki Abe 0.11% 909 1001 91
Hiroki Mori 0.00% 10000 1251 72
Hiroki Tanaka 0.11% 909 1251 13
Hiroki Tokunaga 0.01% 10000 1001 108
Hiroshi Iwata 2.92% 34 21 13
Hiroshi Yamazaki 0.02% 5000 751 129
Hirotaka Teraoka 0.00% 10000 1001 124
Hirotaro Naito 0.52% 192 151 100
Hiroto Nanba 0.00% 10000 1001 91
Hyun-Woo Ryu 1.62% 62 71 0.20% 33 -0.2 Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kan Suzuki 0.00% 10000 1001 129
Kazuharu Iwamoto 0.00% 10000 1001 100
Kazuki Higa 3.81% 26 17 3
Kazuki Ishiwata 0.02% 5000 1001 100
Kazuki Otaki 0.00% 10000 1001 142
Kazuki Yasumori 0.21% 476 401 25
Kazuma Manabe 0.12% 833 751 116
Kazuya Osawa 0.08% 1250 1001 108
Kei Matsuoka 0.08% 1250 1001 140
Keigo Kaneoka 0.08% 1250 1001 56
Keisuke Otawa 0.02% 5000 1001 33
Keisuke Sato 0.11% 909 251 138
Keita Suzuki 0.00% 10000 1001 133
Keita Tokunaga 0.00% 10000 1001 108
Kenichi Iwao 0.01% 10000 1251 61
Kodai Ichihara 0.61% 164 126 72
Kohei Kinoshita 0.14% 714 1001 25
Kohei Okada 1.77% 56 34 42
Koichi Kitamura 0.17% 588 501 72
Koshiro Maeda 0.86% 116 176 0.30% 82 -0.3 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kosuke Sunagawa 0.36% 278 301 91
Kosuke Suzuki 1.35% 74 81 0.10% 19 -0.1 Betway: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kota Kaneko 4.47% 22 17 3
Kouki Kurokawa 0.02% 5000 751 91
Kunihiro Kamii 0.75% 133 101 45
Kyosuke Nagano 0.00% 10000 1001 100
Masaaki Kato 0.00% 10000 1001 100
Masamitsu Masuda 0.00% 10000 1001 91
Masanori Kobayashi 0.00% 10000 1251 72
Masashi Shirouzu 0.00% 10000 1251 129
Masayuki Yamashita 0.02% 5000 1251 82
Michael Hendry 0.69% 145 67 29
Mikiya Akutsu 1.18% 85 91 0.10% 100 -0.1 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mikumu Horikawa 3.59% 28 17 19
Minagi Tamaki 0.00% 10000 1251 133
Mitsumasa Tamura 0.02% 5000 1001 56
Naoto Nakanishi 0.09% 1111 601 29
Naoyuki Kataoka 1.96% 51 36 19
Nobuhiro Masuda 0.03% 3333 1001 108
Nobuhiro Tsujimura 0.00% 10000 1001 143
Norihiko Furusho 0.01% 10000 1251 124
Raiki Okamoto 0.00% 10000 1251 116
Rei Isoi 0.03% 3333 1001 72
Ren Yonezawa 1.68% 60 23 3
Riki Kawamoto 2.23% 45 19 29
Riku Saito 0.07% 1429 1001 116
Ryo Ishikawa 1.82% 55 34 19
Ryo Katsumata 0.80% 125 126 25
Ryoma Miki 0.01% 10000 1001 72
Ryosuke Kinoshita 4.96% 20 15 3
Ryosuke Narimatsu 0.00% 10000 1251 139
Ryota Sakaguchi 0.00% 10000 1251 82
Ryota Wakahara 0.21% 476 401 13
Ryuichi Kondo 0.06% 1667 1001 33
Ryuichi Oiwa 1.85% 54 46 9
Ryusuke Sakurai 0.04% 2500 751 70
Ryutaro Nagano 1.35% 74 71 63
Sejung Hiramoto 0.37% 270 301 72
Shaun Norris 3.67% 27 19 9
Shinagi Nakamura 0.00% 10000 1001 129
Shinnosuke Tanaka 0.01% 10000 751 56
Shota Konishi 0.03% 3333 1251 124
Shota Matsumoto 0.18% 556 501 124
Shota Nakagawa 0.00% 10000 1501 143
Shotaro Tanaka 0.24% 417 201 45
Shugo Imahira 4.75% 21 12 67
Shun Niimura 0.08% 1250 501 116
Shun Tanamachi 0.00% 10000 1251 100
Shunya Takeyasu 1.79% 56 41 52
Souta Toriumi 0.02% 5000 1501 71
Taichi Nabetani 1.23% 81 61 56
Taichi Teshima 0.06% 1667 751 91
Taiga Iwata 0.04% 2500 1001 108
Taiga Mishima 0.11% 909 176 51
Taiga Nagano 1.33% 75 56 45
Taiga Semikawa 1.70% 59 36 13
Taiga Sugihara 0.77% 130 71 25
Taihei Sato 1.92% 52 36 9
Taiki Yoshida 1.90% 53 41 40
Taisei Shimizu 1.89% 53 34 1
Taisei Yamada 0.33% 303 301 108
Taisho Okabe 0.00% 10000 1251 124
Takahiro Hataji 0.46% 217 201 91
Takanori Konishi 1.54% 65 31 45
Takara Oshima 0.43% 233 176 33
Takashi Ogiso 1.85% 54 31 29
Takaya Onoda 0.23% 435 1001 0.10% 82 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takeshi Furushima 0.00% 10000 1001 100
Takuya Higa 0.01% 10000 1251 108
Tatsuki Nakatani 0.13% 769 751 63
Tatsunori Shogenji 3.65% 27 15 2
Terumichi Kakazu 0.38% 263 301 61
Tetsuji Hiratsuka 0.00% 10000 1251 82
Tomoharu Otsuki 2.20% 45 34 137
Tomohiro Ishizaka 1.41% 71 34 42
Tomohiro Kondo 0.17% 588 301 42
Tomoyo Ikemura 1.62% 62 51 3
Tomoyuki Kuroda 0.00% 10000 1251 140
Toru Taniguchi 0.01% 10000 751 133
Toshiumi Kushioka 0.03% 3333 1001 68
Yasuki Hiramoto 0.10% 1000 1001 91
Yasutaka Oshiro 0.00% 10000 1251 52
Yosuke Asaji 1.81% 55 36 82
Yosuke Tsukada 0.62% 161 111 52
Young-Han Song 3.26% 31 21 40
Yui Ueda 0.00% 10000 1251 72
Yuichi Teruya 0.08% 1250 1001 82
Yujiro Ohori 0.77% 130 141 0.10% 13 -0.1 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Inamori 2.13% 47 36 13
Yuki Kajimura 0.02% 5000 1001 33
Yuki Kitagawa 0.03% 3333 1001 116
Yuki Shino 0.58% 172 141 82
Yuki Takeuchi 0.03% 3333 1001 66
Yuki Usami 0.24% 417 751 0.10% 68 -0.1 Skybet: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yusaku Hosono 1.23% 81 76 9
Yusaku Miyazato 0.68% 147 141 45
Yushi Ito 0.10% 1000 1001 63
Yusuke Kaneko 0.01% 10000 1251 108
Yusuke Sakamoto 1.22% 82 67 19
Yuta Ikeda 0.47% 213 201 116
Yuta Kinoshita 0.14% 714 501 72
Yuta Sugiura 2.40% 42 23 3
Yuta Uetake 0.30% 333 276 91
Yuto Katsumata 0.27% 370 351 56
Yuwa Kosaihira 0.78% 128 76 19

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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