Simulation Results: Japan PGA Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	1.40%	71	46		126
Ataru Tokumoto	0.10%	1000	1001		55
Daisuke Matsubara	0.01%	10000	1001		101
Gabriele De Barba	0.05%	2000	601		132
Gensai Yamada	0.27%	370	351		57
Hideto Kobukuro	0.05%	2000	1001		101
Hikaru Ichikawa	0.01%	10000	1501		112
Hikaru Yuhara	0.10%	1000	751		51
Hiroki Tanaka	0.43%	233	401	0.20%	2	9.9	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hiroshi Iwata	1.88%	53	51		17
Hirotaro Naito	0.41%	244	401	0.20%	82	-0.2	Spreadex: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hiroya Kubota	0.14%	714	601		38
Jinichiro Kozuma	2.18%	46	23		15
Joe Mizoguchi	0.00%	10000	1001		118
Justin De Los Santos	0.92%	109	71		42
Kaito Suzuki	0.20%	500	401		72
Kakeru Ozeki	0.09%	1111	451		112
Kanta Ishigaki	0.03%	3333	1001		132
Katsumasa Miyamoto	0.22%	455	751	0.10%	91	-0.1	Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Katsuyuki Sakurai	0.02%	5000	401		118
Kazuki Higa	2.53%	40	34		17
Kazuki Yasumori	0.76%	132	161	0.10%	31	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kazuma Manabe	0.02%	5000	1001		60
Kazuto Takekawa	0.00%	10000	1001		82
Kei Takahashi	0.01%	10000	1501		118
Keisho Oda	0.00%	10000	601		91
Keisuke Ozaki	0.06%	1667	751		57
Keisuke Takahashi	0.00%	10000	1001		66
Kenichi Iwao	0.04%	2500	1001		59
Kento Hishida	0.03%	3333	601		91
Kodai Ichihara	0.54%	185	201		101
Kohei Okada	0.98%	102	101		7
Koki Ishihara	0.01%	10000	1001		118
Koki Kamei	0.01%	10000	601		91
Kosei Takeyama	0.24%	417	351		31
Koshiro Maeda	0.97%	103	76		10
Kosuke Sunagawa	1.12%	89	61		27
Kosuke Suzuki	0.38%	263	351	0.10%	17	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kota Chiba	0.00%	10000	1001		118
Kota Gondo	0.00%	10000	1001		91
Kouki Tomimoto	0.16%	625	1001	0.10%	126	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kunihiro Kamii	0.13%	769	1001		82
Kyo Morishita	0.22%	455	401		132
Masashi Nishimura	0.14%	714	1001		65
Masato Takada	0.02%	5000	751		112
Masayuki Yamashita	0.47%	213	111		68
Michael Hendry	1.03%	97	56		101
Mikiya Akutsu	1.95%	51	46		68
Mikumu Horikawa	3.39%	29	15		143
Minagi Tamaki	0.01%	10000	751		60
Nanase Wada	0.07%	1429	1001		72
Naoyuki Kataoka	0.61%	164	111		67
Noriyuki Kurogi	0.24%	417	251		118
Osei Tada	0.01%	10000	1001		126
Ren Yonezawa	2.61%	38	26		27
Riito Mieno	0.08%	1250	1001		31
Riki Kawamoto	2.77%	36	29		25
Ryo Katsumata	1.69%	59	36		6
Ryohei Akizaki	0.02%	5000	1001		72
Ryoma Miki	0.07%	1429	601		118
Ryosuke Kinoshita	3.42%	29	23		2
Ryosuke Narimatsu	0.00%	10000	1001
Ryuei Sugita	0.05%	2000	601		126
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.90%	111	141	0.20%	31	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryuichi Sakamoto	0.05%	2000	1001		82
Ryuji Nozawa	0.26%	385	301		140
Ryunosuke Furukawa	1.38%	72	56		7
Ryutaro Nagano	2.96%	34	29		15
Satoshi Hara	0.51%	196	181		68
Satoshi Kodaira	1.12%	89	46		17
Sejung Hiramoto	1.35%	74	61		10
Shaun Norris	4.20%	24	12		82
Shinagi Nakamura	0.02%	5000	1001		112
Shingo Katayama	0.14%	714	601		38
Shinichi Fujii	0.03%	3333	1001		72
Shintarou Miyagi	0.01%	10000	1001		137
Sho Nagasawa (Sept1994)	0.00%	10000	1001		55
Shoji Kawai	0.03%	3333	1001		112
Shori Ishizuka	0.05%	2000	601		72
Shota Ueki	0.23%	435	351		101
Shu Fukuzumi	1.06%	94	61		118
Shugo Imahira	3.22%	31	19		17
Shuto Sakamoto	0.05%	2000	601		47
Simon Yates	0.00%	10000	1501		141
Sodai Hirayama	0.07%	1429	1001		137
Sota Fujii	0.00%	10000	1251		51
Souta Teraoka	0.00%	10000	1001		82
Souta Toriumi	0.02%	5000	1001		38
Suguru Shimoke	0.94%	106	141	0.20%	42	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Syu Hirouchi	0.00%	10000	1001		139
Taichi Teshima	0.02%	5000	1001		132
Taichiro Ideriha	0.54%	185	141		10
Taiga Fukuoka	0.10%	1000	751		51
Taiga Harada	0.07%	1429	1001		101
Taiga Nagano	1.32%	76	71		91
Taiga Semikawa	3.86%	26	23		13
Taiga Shimizu	0.00%	10000	1001		126
Taiga Sugihara	0.50%	200	176		72
Taihei Sato	3.26%	31	19		38
Taiki Otsuka	0.05%	2000	501		47
Taiki Uchiyama	0.00%	10000	1001		82
Taiki Yoshida	3.11%	32	21		42
Taisei Shimizu	1.14%	88	126	0.30%	31	-0.3	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taisei Yamada	0.46%	217	276	0.10%	68	-0.1	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takanori Konishi	0.95%	105	61		91
Takashi Ogiso	1.50%	67	61		17
Takaya Onoda	0.39%	256	276		17
Takehiro Kotera	0.04%	2500	1001		82
Takeshi Furushima	0.02%	5000	1001		101
Takumi Murakami	0.10%	1000	1501		142
Takuya Higa	0.03%	3333	1001		60
Takuyoshi Handa	0.04%	2500	2001		101
Tatsunori Shogenji	1.82%	55	61	0.20%	72	-0.2	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Terumichi Kakazu	0.40%	250	501	0.20%	46	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tomoharu Otsuki	1.14%	88	81		25
Tomohiro Ishizaka	2.47%	40	19		2
Tomohiro Kondo	0.12%	833	751		91
Tomoyo Ikemura	2.22%	45	29		13
Toru Taniguchi	0.01%	10000	1001		101
Toshinori Muto	0.18%	556	1001	0.10%	47	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Toshitaka Namikawa	0.00%	10000	2001		60
Yamato Hatta	0.16%	625	751		31
Yasuki Hiramoto	0.03%	3333	1251		82
Yasutaka Oshiro	0.04%	2500	1001		60
Yoshinori Fujimoto	1.87%	53	26		7
Yosuke Asaji	1.26%	79	36		17
Yosuke Tsukada	1.00%	100	111	0.10%	31	-0.1	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Young-Han Song	3.94%	25	15		2
Yui Ueda	0.02%	5000	1501		112
Yujiro Ohori	1.59%	63	51		91
Yuki Inamori	1.76%	57	81	0.50%	27	-0.5	Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Kato	0.02%	5000	751		126
Yuki Shino	0.32%	313	401	0.10%	91	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Takekawa	0.00%	10000	601		132
Yusaku Hosono	3.49%	29	19		1
Yusaku Miyazato	0.95%	105	111		27
Yusuke Sakamoto	0.89%	112	101		42
Yuta Ikeda	1.31%	76	41		47
Yuta Noguchi	0.03%	3333	1001		72
Yuto Katsumata	0.45%	222	141		51
Yuto Okabe	0.00%	10000	1001		72
Yuto Tsukahara	0.03%	3333	601		101
Yuwa Kosaihira	1.06%	94	71		72
Yuya Tokumitsu	0.00%	10000	1001		101

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	1.61%	62	41		133
Ataru Tokumoto	0.34%	294	151		21
Daisuke Matsubara	0.08%	1250	501		82
Gabriele De Barba	0.25%	400	226		116
Gensai Yamada	0.37%	270	86		7
Hideto Kobukuro	0.24%	417	251		116
Hikaru Ichikawa	0.07%	1429	351		69
Hikaru Yuhara	0.20%	500	176		38
Hiroki Tanaka	0.81%	123	91		7
Hiroshi Iwata	1.99%	50	41		7
Hirotaro Naito	0.49%	204	151		126
Hiroya Kubota	0.37%	270	251		13
Jinichiro Kozuma	1.51%	66	31		82
Joe Mizoguchi	0.00%	10000	251		82
Justin De Los Santos	1.27%	79	46		82
Kaito Suzuki	0.50%	200	101		69
Kakeru Ozeki	0.32%	313	126		100
Kanta Ishigaki	0.15%	667	176		126
Katsumasa Miyamoto	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	47	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Katsuyuki Sakurai	0.16%	625	151		116
Kazuki Higa	1.51%	66	46		21
Kazuki Yasumori	0.73%	137	81		82
Kazuma Manabe	0.08%	1250	176		47
Kazuto Takekawa	0.01%	10000	751		100
Kei Takahashi	0.06%	1667	501		116
Keisho Oda	0.00%	10000	401		100
Keisuke Ozaki	0.23%	435	251		47
Keisuke Takahashi	0.02%	5000	601		47
Kenichi Iwao	0.22%	455	251		82
Kento Hishida	0.10%	1000	201		47
Kodai Ichihara	0.89%	112	111		126
Kohei Okada	1.25%	80	46		1
Koki Ishihara	0.11%	909	401		126
Koki Kamei	0.04%	2500	151		69
Kosei Takeyama	0.36%	278	111		1
Koshiro Maeda	0.85%	118	56		1
Kosuke Sunagawa	0.97%	103	51		82
Kosuke Suzuki	0.66%	152	111		13
Kota Chiba	0.00%	10000	751		138
Kota Gondo	0.02%	5000	601		82
Kouki Tomimoto	0.25%	400	251		116
Kunihiro Kamii	0.35%	286	501	0.20%	82	-0.2	Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyo Morishita	0.51%	196	91		100
Masashi Nishimura	0.36%	278	251		6
Masato Takada	0.09%	1111	251		116
Masayuki Yamashita	0.85%	118	61		47
Michael Hendry	0.92%	109	61		69
Mikiya Akutsu	1.33%	75	51		116
Mikumu Horikawa	2.75%	36	21		133
Minagi Tamaki	0.05%	2000	251		38
Nanase Wada	0.26%	385	301		82
Naoyuki Kataoka	0.96%	104	61		82
Noriyuki Kurogi	0.58%	172	101		100
Osei Tada	0.14%	714	301		100
Ren Yonezawa	1.73%	58	34		82
Riito Mieno	0.19%	526	301		21
Riki Kawamoto	1.78%	56	29		21
Ryo Katsumata	1.22%	82	46		7
Ryohei Akizaki	0.15%	667	201		38
Ryoma Miki	0.15%	667	251		82
Ryosuke Kinoshita	2.89%	35	36	0.10%	1	0.7875	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryosuke Narimatsu	0.00%	10000	751
Ryuei Sugita	0.13%	769	251		138
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.84%	119	71		100
Ryuichi Sakamoto	0.20%	500	351		21
Ryuji Nozawa	0.63%	159	151		133
Ryunosuke Furukawa	1.60%	63	46		13
Ryutaro Nagano	1.87%	53	34		13
Satoshi Hara	0.59%	169	81		69
Satoshi Kodaira	0.99%	101	41		38
Sejung Hiramoto	1.08%	93	46		21
Shaun Norris	3.33%	30	17		21
Shinagi Nakamura	0.08%	1250	176		100
Shingo Katayama	0.28%	357	251		21
Shinichi Fujii	0.10%	1000	251		47
Shintarou Miyagi	0.10%	1000	351		126
Sho Nagasawa (Sept1994)	0.03%	3333	601		38
Shoji Kawai	0.07%	1429	501		69
Shori Ishizuka	0.21%	476	226		21
Shota Ueki	0.39%	256	126		82
Shu Fukuzumi	1.45%	69	36		69
Shugo Imahira	2.00%	50	31		21
Shuto Sakamoto	0.16%	625	201		47
Simon Yates	0.00%	10000	251		143
Sodai Hirayama	0.32%	313	301		116
Sota Fujii	0.03%	3333	601		21
Souta Teraoka	0.06%	1667	401		116
Souta Toriumi	0.18%	556	401		21
Suguru Shimoke	0.89%	112	61		47
Syu Hirouchi	0.02%	5000	751		133
Taichi Teshima	0.10%	1000	501		100
Taichiro Ideriha	0.63%	159	56		69
Taiga Fukuoka	0.19%	526	141		47
Taiga Harada	0.18%	556	201		47
Taiga Nagano	1.08%	93	46		47
Taiga Semikawa	3.22%	31	23		100
Taiga Shimizu	0.01%	10000	501		140
Taiga Sugihara	0.88%	114	91		47
Taihei Sato	2.86%	35	26		38
Taiki Otsuka	0.23%	435	151		47
Taiki Uchiyama	0.00%	10000	1001		69
Taiki Yoshida	1.91%	52	36		69
Taisei Shimizu	1.44%	69	56		13
Taisei Yamada	0.79%	127	101		47
Takanori Konishi	0.82%	122	61		100
Takashi Ogiso	1.17%	85	46		1
Takaya Onoda	0.53%	189	101		47
Takehiro Kotera	0.21%	476	251		38
Takeshi Furushima	0.10%	1000	501		100
Takumi Murakami	0.21%	476	401		142
Takuya Higa	0.15%	667	501		47
Takuyoshi Handa	0.21%	476	301		100
Tatsunori Shogenji	1.96%	51	51		82
Terumichi Kakazu	0.48%	208	111		47
Tomoharu Otsuki	1.42%	70			21
Tomohiro Ishizaka	1.67%	60	29		13
Tomohiro Kondo	0.36%	278	126		47
Tomoyo Ikemura	2.15%	47	31		21
Toru Taniguchi	0.11%	909	501		100
Toshinori Muto	0.27%	370	176		21
Toshitaka Namikawa	0.01%	10000	301		21
Yamato Hatta	0.44%	227	201		38
Yasuki Hiramoto	0.12%	833	301		100
Yasutaka Oshiro	0.10%	1000	401		82
Yoshinori Fujimoto	1.96%	51	31		7
Yosuke Asaji	1.63%	61	36		47
Yosuke Tsukada	1.26%	79	67		69
Young-Han Song	3.19%	31	29		7
Yui Ueda	0.08%	1250	601		141
Yujiro Ohori	1.83%	55	46		126
Yuki Inamori	1.27%	79	71		38
Yuki Kato	0.14%	714	226		126
Yuki Shino	0.65%	154	111		100
Yuki Takekawa	0.01%	10000	226		133
Yusaku Hosono	2.14%	47	29		13
Yusaku Miyazato	1.21%	83	71		13
Yusuke Sakamoto	0.82%	122	61		47
Yuta Ikeda	1.07%	93	41		47
Yuta Noguchi	0.08%	1250	251		82
Yuto Katsumata	0.54%	185	86		69
Yuto Okabe	0.03%	3333	351		69
Yuto Tsukahara	0.11%	909	226		116
Yuwa Kosaihira	1.40%	71	51		21
Yuya Tokumitsu	0.03%	3333	401		82

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Yuki Inamori	1.76%	57	81	0.50%	27	-2	Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Taisei Shimizu	1.14%	88	126	0.30%	31	-2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Tatsunori Shogenji	1.82%	55	61	0.20%	72	-2	Spreadex: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Kunihiro Kamii	0.35%	286	501	0.20%	82	-1	Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ryosuke Kinoshita	2.89%	35	36	0.10%	1	7.875	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Katsumasa Miyamoto	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	47	-1	Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.