Simulation Results: Fujisankei Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 1.46% 68 41 97
Azuma Yano 0.01% 10000 751 81
Brad Kennedy 1.22% 82 81
Daichi Sakuda 0.04% 2500 1001 110
Daijiro Izumida 0.96% 104 71 21
Daiki Imano 0.20% 500 226 27
Daisuke Harada 0.03% 3333 751 102
Eric Sugimoto 0.07% 1429 301 81
Fumihiro Ebine 0.07% 1429 401 70
Genki Okada 0.30% 333 276 15
Genzo Tokimatsu 0.46% 217 301 0.10% 75 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gyumin Lee 0.50% 200 401 0.30% 91 -0.3 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Haruto Uchiyama 0.07% 1429 401 48
Hideto Kobukuro 0.04% 2500 1501 34
Hideto Tanihara 0.25% 400 201 56
Hiroshi Iwata 2.32% 43 29 58
Hirotaro Naito 0.35% 286 251 34
Hyun-Woo Ryu 0.65% 154 141 48
Jbe Kruger 0.28% 357 151 102
Jigen Serizawa 0.10% 1000 251 15
Jiho Yang 0.15% 667 251 114
Junya Kameshiro 0.03% 3333 1001 97
Justin De Los Santos 0.68% 147 91 81
Kaito Onishi 0.75% 133 101 75
Katsuyuki Sakurai 0.00% 10000 1001 111
Kazuki Higa 2.76% 36 26 21
Kazuya Nishimura 0.00% 10000 501 107
Kei Takahashi 0.00% 10000 1001 75
Keigo Kaneoka 0.19% 526 201 40
Kento Yamawaki 0.07% 1429 501 54
Kodai Ichihara 0.48% 208 201 15
Kohei Okada 1.20% 83 67 4
Koichi Kitamura 0.05% 2000 1501 81
Kosei Takeyama 0.12% 833 251 81
Koshiro Maeda 0.52% 192 151 6
Kosuke Suzuki 0.70% 143 151 7
Kota Kaneko 4.90% 20 17 10
Kunihiro Kamii 0.45% 222 401 0.20% 70 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Masashi Hidaka 0.09% 1111 301 111
Michael Hendry 0.24% 417 181 48
Mikiya Akutsu 1.01% 99 71 4
Mikumu Horikawa 3.45% 29 19 15
Minato Oshima 0.04% 2500 1001 107
Naoyuki Kaneda 0.01% 10000 1001 111
Naoyuki Kataoka 1.25% 80 51 66
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.15% 667 401 59
Ren Yonezawa 3.53% 28 13 27
Riki Kawamoto 3.22% 31 19 7
Rintaro Nakano 0.07% 1429 226 66
Ryo Ishikawa 1.94% 52 41 10
Ryo Katsumata 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 27 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryoma Iwai 0.22% 455 276 40
Ryosuke Kinoshita 3.07% 33 26 34
Ryota Wakahara 0.21% 476 126 91
Ryuichi Oiwa 2.11% 47 46 117
Ryuji Nozawa 0.07% 1429 751 40
Ryutaro Nagano 2.19% 46 41 7
Sakutoshi Yamazaki 0.01% 10000 401 81
Sanghee Lee 0.43% 233 111 91
Satoshi Hara 0.29% 345 161 27
Satoshi Kodaira 0.48% 208 61 21
Scott Vincent 5.84% 17 11 27
Sean Maruyama 0.02% 5000 401 107
Sejung Hiramoto 0.22% 455 301 75
Shiho Kawasaki 0.00% 10000 116
Shintaro Ban 0.30% 333 161 91
Shori Ishizuka 0.03% 3333 501 59
Shota Matsumoto 0.12% 833 401 56
Shota Ueki 0.11% 909 2501 0.10% 59 -0.1 Bet365: 2500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shugo Imahira 2.67% 37 29 15
Shun Niimura 0.06% 1667 501 97
Shunya Takeyasu 0.63% 159 251 0.20% 34 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Souta Toriumi 0.02% 5000 2501 81
Steve Sugimoto 0.18% 556 401 40
Suguru Shimoke 1.42% 70 67 65
Sung-Po Yu 0.09% 1111 601 81
Taichi Kimura 0.10% 1000 201 97
Taichi Nabetani 0.72% 139 71 21
Taiga Nagano 0.88% 114 81 1
Taiga Semikawa 5.41% 18 16 3
Taiga Sugihara 0.38% 263 151 34
Taihei Sato 0.77% 130 101 40
Taiki Yoshida 1.52% 66 67 48
Taiko Nishiyama 0.48% 208 126 59
Taisei Shimizu 1.91% 52 41 48
Taisei Yamada 0.18% 556 351 70
Takahiro Hataji 0.35% 286 161 75
Takanori Konishi 0.85% 118 111 27
Takara Oshima 0.19% 526 276 102
Takashi Ogiso 2.00% 50 41 117
Tatsunori Shogenji 3.86% 26 19 10
Tatsuya Kodai 0.17% 588 251 97
Terumichi Kakazu 0.49% 204 151 114
Todd Baek 0.20% 500 251 81
Tomoharu Otsuki 1.49% 67 51 10
Tomohiro Ishizaka 1.04% 96 51 21
Tomohiro Kondo 0.04% 2500 351 102
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.27% 370 201
Tomoyo Ikemura 2.97% 34 23 66
Tsubasa Ukita 0.07% 1429 751 117
Yamato Hatta 0.12% 833 601 75
Yohei Shinno 0.00% 10000 81
Yosuke Asaji 0.53% 189 161 59
Yosuke Tsukada 0.72% 139 201 0.20% 27 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Young-Han Song 2.17% 46 29 15
Yujiro Ohori 0.72% 139 101 34
Yuki Furukawa 0.14% 714 401 48
Yuki Inamori 1.78% 56 67 0.30% 54 -0.3 Spreadex: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Kitagawa 0.04% 2500 1001 102
Yuki Moriyama 0.20% 500 351 40
Yuki Shino 0.10% 1000 501 70
Yusaku Hosono 1.61% 62 51 21
Yusaku Miyazato 0.39% 256 91 40
Yusuke Sakamoto 1.86% 54 67 0.40% 70 -0.4 Star Sports: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Kawakami 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 40 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Kinoshita 0.14% 714 401 59
Yuta Sugiura 2.08% 48 26 2
Yuta Uetake 0.24% 417 251 91
Yuto Katsumata 0.24% 417 301 91
Yuwa Kosaihira 1.18% 85 36 10

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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