Simulation Results: ISPS Handa Explosion in the Summer

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 1.10% 91 61 31
Akihiro Nitta 0.02% 5000 2501 132
Akira Endo 0.03% 3333 501 125
Brad Kennedy 0.94% 106 111 6
Daichi Sakuda 0.06% 1667 1001 63
Daijiro Izumida 0.75% 133 126 27
Daiki Hasegawa 0.02% 5000 751 125
Daisuke Kataoka 0.21% 476 351 47
Denzel Ieremia 0.42% 238 67 51
Eric Sugimoto 0.19% 526 301 139
Fumihiro Ebine 0.08% 1250 751 57
Genki Okada 0.57% 175 141 51
Genzo Tokimatsu 1.11% 90 126 0.30% 81 -0.3 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Guntaek Koh 0.37% 270 111 42
Gyumin Lee 0.67% 149 201 0.20% 116 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Haruto Uchiyama 0.19% 526 401 63
Hideto Kobukuro 0.06% 1667 1001 14
Hideto Tanihara 0.77% 130 101 51
Hirotaro Naito 0.47% 213 351 0.20% 81 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyun-Woo Ryu 1.19% 84 86 68
Ibuki Yoshida 0.01% 10000 1001 112
Itsuki Kurokawa 0.02% 5000 1251 18
Jbe Kruger 0.14% 714 176 96
Jigen Serizawa 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 47 -0.1 Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jiho Yang 0.16% 625 351 27
Junya Kameshiro 0.02% 5000 1501 96
Justin De Los Santos 0.72% 139 81 6
Katsuyuki Sakurai 0.01% 10000 2001 132
Kazuki Higa 4.15% 24 17 1
Kazuki Yasumori 0.58% 172 276 0.20% 96 -0.2 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kazumasa Matsuda 0.14% 714 501 81
Keigo Kaneoka 0.24% 417 351 96
Keisuke Sato 0.10% 1000 751 65
Kento Yamawaki 0.11% 909 1501 81
Kodai Ichihara 0.53% 189 176 68
Kohei Okada 1.70% 59 46 5
Koichi Kitamura 0.05% 2000 1501 68
Koichiro Ishika 0.00% 10000 1251 132
Koki Shiomi 0.02% 5000 132
Konosuke Nakazato 0.03% 3333 1501 81
Kosei Takeyama 0.22% 455 301 96
Koshiro Maeda 0.23% 435 251 96
Kosuke Sunagawa 0.41% 244 301 0.10% 18 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kosuke Suzuki 0.51% 196 81 47
Kota Kaneko 3.26% 31 16 3
Kotarou Ogawa 0.01% 10000 601 66
Kouki Tomimoto 0.01% 10000 1001 96
Kunihiro Kamii 0.56% 179 301 0.20% 96 -0.2 Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Masahiro Kawamura 1.63% 61 51 57
Masaki Matsumoto 0.04% 2500 2501 42
Masamichi Ito 0.09% 1111 601 116
Masashi Hidaka 0.14% 714 501 57
Masashi Nakamura 0.01% 10000 1501 139
Masato Takada 0.02% 5000 2001 81
Michael Hendry 0.31% 323 91 81
Miki Yamaji 0.01% 10000 2001 81
Mikiya Akutsu 1.11% 90 56 112
Mikumu Horikawa 3.97% 25 15 18
Minato Oshima 0.04% 2500 1501 96
Minwook Gwon 0.15% 667 501 51
Naoyuki Kataoka 1.53% 65 36 18
Nicklaus Chiam 0.17% 588 176 96
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.15% 667 601 68
Ren Yonezawa 3.06% 33 15 2
Riki Kawamoto 3.75% 27 15 18
Ryo Katsumata 1.66% 60 81 0.40% 81 -0.4 Bresbet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryoma Iwai 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 42 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryosuke Kinoshita 2.73% 37 23 31
Ryuichi Oiwa 1.78% 56 61 0.10% 31 -0.1 Bresbet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryuji Nozawa 0.15% 667 501 68
Ryunosuke Furukawa 1.48% 68 61 3
Ryutaro Nagano 1.35% 74 18
Satoshi Hara 0.39% 256 251 6
Satoshi Kodaira 0.58% 172 111 68
Satoshi Nakayama 0.00% 10000 1501 143
Seinosuke Fukui 0.00% 10000 1501 125
Sejung Hiramoto 0.29% 345 226 37
Shintaro Ban 0.55% 182 301 0.20% 10 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shintaro Kai 0.00% 10000 1001 125
Shota Matsumoto 0.33% 303 251 125
Shota Ueki 0.34% 294 1001 0.20% 96 -0.2 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shotaro Matsuoka 0.42% 238 301 0.10% 96 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shotaro Tanaka 0.29% 345 31
Shu Fukuzumi 0.35% 286 201 116
Shugo Imahira 2.19% 46 31 14
Shun Murayama 0.00% 10000 2501 96
Shun Niimura 0.05% 2000 2501 132
Shunya Takeyasu 0.34% 294 226 81
Souta Toriumi 0.03% 3333 1501 116
Steve Sugimoto 0.24% 417 401 60
Suguru Shimoke 1.30% 77 67 37
Sung-Po Yu 0.23% 435 251 68
Tadahiro Takayama 0.01% 10000 116
Taichi Kho 1.51% 66 26 112
Taichi Kimura 0.10% 1000 501 125
Taichi Nabetani 0.82% 122 126 116
Taiga Nagano 1.61% 62 51 14
Taiga Semikawa 4.29% 23 17 68
Taiga Sugihara 0.53% 189 101 116
Taihei Sato 1.17% 85 34 96
Taiki Yoshida 0.88% 114 71 18
Taiko Nishiyama 0.41% 244 176 42
Taisei Shimizu 2.39% 42 23 81
Taisei Yamada 0.14% 714 1001 37
Takahiro Hataji 0.29% 345 351 75
Takanori Konishi 0.96% 104 101 68
Takara Oshima 0.35% 286 251 47
Takashi Ogiso 1.22% 82 81 27
Takehiro Kotera 0.04% 2500 751 81
Takumi Murakami 0.23% 435 401 132
Tatsunori Shogenji 3.77% 27 15 10
Tatsuya Kodai 0.38% 263 601 0.20% 51 -0.2 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Terumichi Kakazu 0.22% 455 276 10
Todd Baek 0.30% 333 251 37
Tomo Kagawa 0.00% 10000 1001 67
Tomoharu Otsuki 1.18% 85 71 14
Tomohiro Ishizaka 1.66% 60 34 31
Tomohiro Kondo 0.12% 833 226 139
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.57% 175 176 42
Tomoyo Ikemura 2.26% 44 29 6
Toshiki Bando 0.16% 625 501 60
Tsubasa Ukita 0.11% 909 401 96
Yamato Hatta 0.13% 769 501 37
Yasuki Hiramoto 0.03% 3333 401 116
Yoshinori Fujimoto 0.07% 1429 251 68
Yosuke Asaji 0.74% 135 81 81
Yosuke Tsukada 0.71% 141 126 68
Young-Han Song 1.66% 60 34 60
Yujiro Ohori 0.54% 185 201 10
Yuki Furukawa 0.34% 294 276 125
Yuki Inamori 2.39% 42 51 0.40% 68 -0.4 Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Kitagawa 0.06% 1667 751 116
Yuki Moriyama 0.24% 417 276 112
Yuki Shino 0.10% 1000 501 139
Yusaku Hosono 1.08% 93 56 31
Yusaku Miyazato 0.35% 286 176 68
Yuta Ikeda 0.12% 833 351 132
Yuta Kawakami 0.87% 115 151 0.20% 81 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Kinoshita 0.16% 625 751 51
Yuta Sugiura 1.19% 84 29 18
Yuta Uetake 0.13% 769 401 81
Yuto Katsumata 0.43% 233 351 0.10% 27 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuto Katsuragawa 2.84% 35 17 96
Yuwa Kosaihira 1.10% 91 61 18

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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