Simulation Results: The Crowns

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 0.68% 147 81 6
Atsushi Ueda 0.01% 10000 1501 36
Brad Kennedy 1.19% 84 101 0.20% 17 -0.2 Spreadex: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daijiro Izumida 0.53% 189 151 60
Daiki Imano 0.10% 1000 1001 29
Dinesh Chand 0.00% 10000 1501 94
Fumihiro Ebine 0.11% 909 251 73
Gen Nagai 0.03% 3333 1001 80
Hideki Ono 0.00% 10000 501 97
Hideto Kobukuro 0.13% 769 501 48
Hideto Tanihara 0.92% 109 101 98
Hiroshi Iwata 3.61% 28 29 0.20% 2 0.6 Spreadex: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hirotaro Naito 0.12% 833 501 14
Hyun-Woo Ryu 0.81% 123 126 63
Jbe Kruger 0.16% 625 301 17
Justin De Los Santos 0.77% 130 201 0.30% 98 -0.3 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Juvic Pagunsan 0.57% 175 176 6
Kanta Ishigaki 0.00% 10000 751 88
Katsumasa Miyamoto 0.08% 1250 751 73
Kazuki Higa 2.52% 40 23 6
Kazuya Koura 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 36 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keisuke Kondo 0.01% 10000 1001 90
Kinjiro Kato 0.00% 10000 63
Kodai Ichihara 0.62% 161 351 0.30% 21 -0.3 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kohei Okada 0.41% 244 201 4
Koichi Kitamura 0.28% 357 251 86
Koshiro Maeda 0.71% 141 201 0.20% 63 -0.2 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kosuke Suzuki 1.11% 90 81 21
Kota Gondo 0.00% 10000 2001 88
Kota Kaneko 2.71% 37 26 12
Kunihiro Kamii 0.91% 110 151 0.20% 6 -0.2 Betway: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mao Matsuyama 0.06% 1667 251 80
Masashi Hidaka 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 56 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Masaya Hattori 0.03% 3333 1001 48
Michael Hendry 1.01% 99 41 21
Mikiya Akutsu 1.25% 80 81 21
Mikumu Horikawa 4.15% 24 19 29
Minato Oshima 0.07% 1429 1501 45
Naoki Kaminaga 0.00% 10000 1001 93
Naoyuki Kataoka 3.01% 33 23 98
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.19% 526 201 63
Ren Yonezawa 2.50% 40 21 17
Retsu Sakamoto 0.00% 10000 1001 94
Riki Kawamoto 1.60% 63 41 36
Rintaro Nakano 0.07% 1429 176 42
Ryo Ishikawa 2.11% 47 34 14
Ryo Katsumata 1.09% 92 126 0.30% 48 -0.3 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryosuke Kinoshita 4.37% 23 15 14
Ryuichi Oiwa 1.63% 61 81 0.40% 36 -0.4 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryuji Masaoka 0.01% 10000 751 92
Ryutaro Nagano 1.03% 97 101 17
Satoshi Kodaira 1.33% 75 67 98
Sejung Hiramoto 0.16% 625 501 42
Shaun Norris 5.94% 17 15 36
Shingo Katayama 0.15% 667 301 29
Shotaro Tanaka 0.22% 455 151 36
Shugo Imahira 6.40% 16 13 21
Shun Niimura 0.15% 667 251 80
Shunya Takeyasu 1.49% 67 51 45
Souta Toriumi 0.01% 10000 1001 90
Suguru Shimoke 1.24% 81 61 73
Taichi Nabetani 1.33% 75 51 48
Taichiro Ideriha 0.65% 154 61 63
Taiga Nagano 0.92% 109 81 6
Taiga Semikawa 2.36% 42 19 60
Taiga Sugihara 0.71% 141 126 55
Taiga Yamamoto 0.10% 1000 176 80
Taihei Sato 1.52% 66 61 63
Taiki Uchiyama 0.00% 10000 501 96
Taiki Yoshida 2.00% 50 29 80
Taisei Shimizu 2.14% 47 26 29
Taisei Yamada 0.24% 417 251 73
Takahiro Hataji 0.20% 500 251 63
Takanori Konishi 1.43% 70 67 4
Takara Oshima 0.46% 217 161 29
Takashi Ogiso 1.73% 58 36 56
Takaya Onoda 0.12% 833 401 42
Tatsunori Shogenji 3.04% 33 23 6
Terumichi Kakazu 0.33% 303 251 63
Todd Baek 0.28% 357 251
Tomoharu Otsuki 1.03% 97 101 12
Tomohiro Ishizaka 1.32% 76 51 21
Tomohiro Kondo 0.18% 556 351 48
Tomoki Mitsuda 0.12% 833 401 56
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.54% 185 176 56
Tomoyo Ikemura 1.45% 69 34 79
Toru Taniguchi 0.01% 10000 1501 29
Tsubasa Ukita 0.69% 145 151 63
Yamato Hatta 0.21% 476 401 21
Yosuke Asaji 1.33% 75 81 0.10% 1 5 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yosuke Tsukada 0.90% 111 126 0.10% 62 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Young-Han Song 2.24% 45 41 21
Yu Morimoto 0.01% 10000 1001 80
Yujiro Ohori 0.56% 179 151 73
Yuki Furukawa 0.10% 1000 301 98
Yuki Inamori 2.94% 34 26 48
Yuki Moriyama 0.06% 1667 1001 29
Yuki Shino 0.41% 244 201 63
Yusaku Hosono 1.14% 88 61 45
Yusaku Miyazato 0.27% 370 301 2
Yusuke Sakamoto 1.79% 56 51 98
Yuta Ikeda 0.42% 238 151 86
Yuta Kinoshita 0.21% 476 301 98
Yuta Sugiura 1.11% 90 51 48
Yuwa Kosaihira 0.35% 286 301 73

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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