Simulation Results: The Crowns

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	1.31%	76	41		16
Akira Endo	0.05%	2000	1001		66
Atsushi Ueda	0.03%	3333	1251		84
Brad Kennedy	1.12%	89	141	0.40%	84	-0.4	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daijiro Izumida	0.64%	156	151		48
Daiki Imano	0.76%	132	91		48
Daiki Minami	0.03%	3333	751		71
Daisuke Kataoka	0.29%	345	141		5
Dinesh Chand	0.00%	10000	2501		99
Gen Nagai	0.03%	3333	2001		98
Genki Okada	0.27%	370	276		81
Hikaru Yuhara	0.25%	400	501	0.10%	71	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hiroshi Iwata	1.54%	65	41		24
Hyun-Woo Ryu	0.82%	122	141	0.10%	12	-0.1	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jinichiro Kozuma	1.99%	50	21		12
Jiro Sekido	0.00%	10000			101
Jo Aoki	0.09%	1111	501		38
Justin De Los Santos	0.69%	145	76		71
Kaito Onishi	1.10%	91	141	0.40%	53	-0.4	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kaito Suzuki	0.10%	1000	326		38
Katsumasa Miyamoto	0.19%	526	501		67
Kazuki Higa	2.52%	40	34		44
Kazuki Yasumori	0.71%	141	176	0.10%	44	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keisuke Kondo	0.00%	10000	1251		87
Kinjiro Kato	0.22%	455	801	0.10%	35	-0.1	Unibet: 800/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kodai Aoyama	0.05%	2000	351		24
Kodai Ichihara	0.47%	213	181		94
Kohei Okada	0.67%	149	101		56
Koshiro Maeda	0.70%	143	121		24
Kosuke Sunagawa	0.88%	114	126	0.10%	53	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kosuke Suzuki	0.32%	313	201		87
Kunihiro Kamii	0.27%	370	301
Kunihiro Nakashima	0.09%	1111			94
Leo Maruo	0.15%	667	401		71
Mao Matsuyama	0.05%	2000	751		35
Masaya Hattori	0.16%	625	276		30
Michael Hendry	0.73%	137	41		16
Mikiya Akutsu	1.58%	63	61		10
Mikumu Horikawa	2.84%	35	19		1
Naoyuki Kataoka	0.84%	119	46		71
Ren Yonezawa	3.44%	29	17		24
Riki Kawamoto	2.19%	46	36		6
Rintaro Nakano	0.64%	156	76		65
Ryo Ishikawa	4.05%	25	18		24
Ryo Katsumata	1.16%	86	34		12
Ryoma Iwai	0.22%	455	301		91
Ryosuke Kinoshita	4.42%	23	15		20
Ryota Wakahara	0.46%	217	226		81
Ryoya Sakai	0.00%	10000	1001		96
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.64%	156	141		102
Ryuki Matsuoka	0.00%	10000	651		71
Ryunosuke Furukawa	1.48%	68	91	0.40%	20	-0.4	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryutaro Nagano	1.78%	56	51		8
Satoshi Hara	0.38%	263	201		44
Satoshi Kodaira	0.53%	189	121		3
Sejung Hiramoto	0.77%	130	176	0.20%	3	4.275	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Senju Asada	0.09%	1111			96
Shaun Norris	3.15%	32	23		6
Shingo Katayama	0.19%	526	401		81
Shohei Oda	0.46%	217			35
Shotaro Tanaka	0.13%	769	301		57
Shu Fukuzumi	0.85%	118	76		67
Shugo Imahira	4.94%	20	11		71
Shunya Takeyasu	0.39%	256	276		71
Suguru Shimoke	0.93%	108	126	0.10%			Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taichi Kho	1.14%	88	56		87
Taichi Nabetani	1.19%	84	71		10
Taichiro Ideriha	0.34%	294	201		30
Taiga Mishima	0.08%	1250	501		62
Taiga Nagano	1.30%	77	51		102
Taiga Semikawa	5.13%	19	14		102
Taiga Sugihara	0.59%	169	101		91
Taiga Yamamoto	0.34%	294	201		57
Taihei Sato	2.19%	46	51	0.20%	8	-0.2	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiki Yoshida	2.85%	35	26		12
Taiko Nishiyama	0.67%	149	141		38
Taisei Yamada	0.34%	294	251		38
Takahiro Hataji	0.30%	333	401	0.10%	30	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takanori Konishi	0.61%	164	81		48
Takashi Ogiso	1.72%	58	34		53
Tatsunori Shogenji	2.29%	44	36		87
Terumichi Kakazu	0.39%	256	251		67
Tomoharu Otsuki	1.15%	87	71		30
Tomohiro Ishizaka	3.11%	32	17		64
Tomohiro Kondo	0.15%	667	501		71
Tomoyo Ikemura	1.59%	63	46		24
Yamato Hatta	0.23%	435	326		84
Yoshikazu Araki	0.00%	10000	1001		100
Yosuke Asaji	2.16%	46	23		62
Yosuke Tsukada	0.57%	175	201	0.10%	67	-0.1	William Hill: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yu Morimoto	0.03%	3333	601		38
Yudai Nakakuki	0.01%	10000	1501		91
Yuichi Teruya	0.29%	345	276		57
Yujiro Ohori	0.94%	106	91		57
Yuki Inamori	2.29%	44	46	0.10%	44	-0.1	Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Moriyama	0.15%	667	601		71
Yusaku Hosono	2.43%	41	29		2
Yusaku Miyazato	0.85%	118	121		20
Yusuke Sakamoto	0.72%	139	76		38
Yuta Ikeda	0.69%	145	91		16
Yuta Sugiura	2.26%	44	29		20
Yuta Uetake	0.18%	556	351		30
Yuta Yoshikuwa	0.06%	1667	1251		16
Yuto Katsumata	0.17%	588	301		48
Yuwa Kosaihira	0.69%	145	101		57

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki	1.13%	88	34		8
Akira Endo	0.14%	714	176		64
Atsushi Ueda	0.15%	667	151		95
Brad Kennedy	0.91%	110	56		86
Daijiro Izumida	0.99%	101	51		35
Daiki Imano	1.08%	93	51		35
Daiki Minami	0.17%	588	201		64
Daisuke Kataoka	0.44%	227	71		35
Dinesh Chand	0.02%	5000	251		102
Gen Nagai	0.21%	476	201		86
Genki Okada	0.61%	164	111		64
Hikaru Yuhara	0.56%	179	126		10
Hiroshi Iwata	1.20%	83	36		49
Hyun-Woo Ryu	0.78%	128	81		19
Jinichiro Kozuma	2.10%	48	29		64
Jiro Sekido	0.01%	10000			104
Jo Aoki	0.35%	286	111		49
Justin De Los Santos	1.09%	92	46		86
Kaito Onishi	1.32%	76	81	0.10%	86	-0.1	Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kaito Suzuki	0.34%	294	111		35
Katsumasa Miyamoto	0.35%	286	126		74
Kazuki Higa	1.57%	64	36		35
Kazuki Yasumori	0.71%	141	86		49
Keisuke Kondo	0.04%	2500	251		100
Kinjiro Kato	0.33%	303	126		49
Kodai Aoyama	0.13%	769	141		35
Kodai Ichihara	0.82%	122	91		74
Kohei Okada	0.68%	147	51		74
Koshiro Maeda	0.71%	141	71		1
Kosuke Sunagawa	1.23%	81	67		19
Kosuke Suzuki	0.64%	156	81		64
Kunihiro Kamii	0.39%	256	141
Kunihiro Nakashima	0.20%	500	101		100
Leo Maruo	0.24%	417	111		64
Mao Matsuyama	0.23%	435	226		64
Masaya Hattori	0.29%	345	81		35
Michael Hendry	1.08%	93	29		35
Mikiya Akutsu	1.73%	58	41		3
Mikumu Horikawa	2.61%	38	23		19
Naoyuki Kataoka	1.21%	83	41		19
Ren Yonezawa	2.91%	34	26		35
Riki Kawamoto	1.47%	68	34		19
Rintaro Nakano	0.96%	104	51		10
Ryo Ishikawa	3.11%	32	26		49
Ryo Katsumata	0.92%	109	26		10
Ryoma Iwai	0.55%	182	111		64
Ryosuke Kinoshita	3.39%	29	26		49
Ryota Wakahara	0.82%	122	101		95
Ryoya Sakai	0.05%	2000	251		49
Ryuichi Oiwa	0.94%	106	61		86
Ryuki Matsuoka	0.01%	10000	251		19
Ryunosuke Furukawa	1.08%	93	36		49
Ryutaro Nagano	1.89%	53	41		74
Satoshi Hara	0.46%	217	71		19
Satoshi Kodaira	0.88%	114	67		3
Sejung Hiramoto	1.10%	91	67		2
Senju Asada	0.38%	263	91		86
Shaun Norris	1.90%	53	19		10
Shingo Katayama	0.28%	357	111		74
Shohei Oda	0.50%	200	61		35
Shotaro Tanaka	0.25%	400	141		74
Shu Fukuzumi	1.24%	81	51		19
Shugo Imahira	3.53%	28	17		35
Shunya Takeyasu	0.73%	137	111		49
Suguru Shimoke	1.20%	83	56
Taichi Kho	0.97%	103	41		99
Taichi Nabetani	1.50%	67	51		35
Taichiro Ideriha	0.42%	238	71		35
Taiga Mishima	0.33%	303	151		19
Taiga Nagano	1.58%	63	41		74
Taiga Semikawa	3.71%	27	23		49
Taiga Sugihara	0.67%	149	51		95
Taiga Yamamoto	0.47%	213	67		74
Taihei Sato	1.49%	67	36		19
Taiki Yoshida	2.56%	39	31		10
Taiko Nishiyama	0.68%	147	71		10
Taisei Yamada	0.48%	208	91		49
Takahiro Hataji	0.37%	270	91		3
Takanori Konishi	0.68%	147	56		49
Takashi Ogiso	1.27%	79	31		74
Tatsunori Shogenji	2.17%	46	41		74
Terumichi Kakazu	0.52%	192	81		74
Tomoharu Otsuki	1.00%	100	51		19
Tomohiro Ishizaka	2.70%	37	23		49
Tomohiro Kondo	0.37%	270	101		95
Tomoyo Ikemura	1.13%	88	41		49
Yamato Hatta	0.35%	286	126		64
Yoshikazu Araki	0.03%	3333	151		102
Yosuke Asaji	1.44%	69	26		19
Yosuke Tsukada	0.92%	109	81		86
Yu Morimoto	0.09%	1111	176		19
Yudai Nakakuki	0.07%	1429	151		74
Yuichi Teruya	0.60%	167	91		35
Yujiro Ohori	0.87%	115	51		64
Yuki Inamori	2.28%	44	41		8
Yuki Moriyama	0.32%	313	151		86
Yusaku Hosono	2.22%	45	36		3
Yusaku Miyazato	0.80%	125	61		10
Yusuke Sakamoto	1.12%	89	51		3
Yuta Ikeda	0.71%	141	51		19
Yuta Sugiura	2.19%	46	26		10
Yuta Uetake	0.48%	208	141		49
Yuta Yoshikuwa	0.14%	714	141		19
Yuto Katsumata	0.30%	333	126		86
Yuwa Kosaihira	0.70%	143	61		10

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Ryunosuke Furukawa	1.48%	68	91	0.40%	20	-2	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Brad Kennedy	1.12%	89	141	0.40%	84	-2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Kaito Onishi	1.10%	91	141	0.40%	53	-2	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Kaito Onishi	1.32%	76	81	0.10%	86	-3	Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.