Simulation Results: Casio World Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 0.74% 135 101 37
Brad Kennedy 0.76% 132 176 0.20% 31 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daijiro Izumida 0.90% 111 91 66
Daiki Imano 0.18% 556 226 58
Daisuke Kataoka 0.27% 370 126 54
Daisuke Matsuzaka 0.00% 10000 1001 104
Eric Sugimoto 0.08% 1250 751 31
Fumihiro Ebine 0.03% 3333 1001 82
Furuse Koichiro 0.33% 303 151 37
Genzo Tokimatsu 0.33% 303 401 0.10% 66 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Guntaek Koh 0.28% 357 251 11
Haruto Toge 0.00% 10000 1001 64
Hiroshi Iwata 2.46% 41 29 82
Hirotaro Naito 0.18% 556 401 43
Hyun-Woo Ryu 0.56% 179 151 58
Ichiro Tanimoto 0.00% 10000 1501 103
Jbe Kruger 0.08% 1250 401 82
Jigen Serizawa 0.13% 769 401 98
Jiho Yang 0.10% 1000 401 66
Jinichiro Kozuma 1.09% 92 51 25
Justin De Los Santos 0.69% 145 111 11
Kazuki Higa 3.24% 31 19 11
Kazuki Yasumori 0.48% 208 201 58
Kodai Ichihara 0.22% 455 301 15
Kohei Okada 1.67% 60 41 73
Koki Kamei 0.00% 10000 1001 65
Koshiro Maeda 0.61% 164 151 18
Kosuke Sunagawa 0.36% 278 176 2
Kosuke Suzuki 0.33% 303 401 0.10% 5 1.5833333333333 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kota Kaneko 4.38% 23 17 25
Kunihiro Kamii 0.45% 222 401 0.20% 104 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Masashi Hidaka 0.03% 3333 1001 54
Masataka Imaya 0.00% 10000 501 100
Michael Hendry 0.48% 208 226 73
Mikiya Akutsu 1.02% 98 91 31
Mikumu Horikawa 4.64% 22 13 104
Naoki Kaminaga 0.00% 10000 1001 94
Naoto Nakanishi 0.11% 909 501 102
Naoyuki Kataoka 1.18% 85 67 18
Nicklaus Chiam 0.09% 1111 301 37
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.11% 909 401 66
Ren Yonezawa 2.30% 43 34 21
Ryo Ishikawa 4.51% 22 17 48
Ryo Katsumata 2.41% 41 36 9
Ryoma Iwai 0.18% 556 301 98
Ryosuke Kinoshita 3.92% 26 21 5
Ryuichi Oiwa 1.16% 86 151 0.50% 1 46.875 BetMGM: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryunosuke Furukawa 0.81% 123 81 91
Ryutaro Nagano 2.56% 39 34 8
Sanghee Lee 1.10% 91 36 15
Satoshi Hara 0.60% 167 126 94
Sejung Hiramoto 0.67% 149 176 0.10% 66 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shaun Norris 1.17% 85 67 104
Shotaro Tanaka 0.33% 303 151 25
Shugo Imahira 4.83% 21 15 73
Shun Niimura 0.05% 2000 501 82
Shunya Takeyasu 0.36% 278 251 43
Steve Sugimoto 0.06% 1667 501 51
Suguru Shimoke 1.43% 70 51 3
Taichi Kimura 0.13% 769 501 31
Taichi Nabetani 0.91% 110 81 62
Taichiro Ideriha 0.36% 278 111 82
Taiga Nagano 1.28% 78 91 0.20% 54 -0.2 PaddyPower: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiga Semikawa 6.06% 17 13 5
Taiga Sugihara 0.16% 625 351 66
Taihei Sato 2.77% 36 34 3
Taiki Yoshida 3.96% 25 26 0.10% 25 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taiko Nishiyama 0.20% 500 351 9
Taisei Nagasaki 0.06% 1667 226 73
Taisei Shimizu 1.39% 72 61 66
Taisei Yamada 0.27% 370 276 21
Takahiro Hataji 0.23% 435 201 73
Takanori Konishi 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 31 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takara Oshima 0.17% 588 351 82
Takashi Ogiso 2.63% 38 34 25
Taro Hiroi 0.00% 10000 1501 94
Tatsuya Kodai 0.25% 400 226 25
Terumichi Kakazu 0.25% 400 251 82
Todd Baek 0.25% 400 251 51
Tomoharu Otsuki 1.41% 71 67 11
Tomohiro Ishizaka 2.15% 47 46 48
Tomohiro Kondo 0.03% 3333 1001 21
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.27% 370 301 73
Tomoyo Ikemura 1.67% 60 67 0.20% 73 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Toru Taniguchi 0.00% 10000 1501 82
Toshinori Muto 0.06% 1667 751 73
Tsubasa Ukita 0.04% 2500 501 62
Wataru Ishikawa 0.01% 10000 1001 101
Yamato Hatta 0.27% 370 251 82
Yosuke Asaji 1.34% 75 56 37
Yosuke Tsukada 1.13% 88 151 0.50% 18 -0.5 Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Young-Han Song 2.92% 34 36 0.10% 15 -0.1 Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yujiro Ohori 0.70% 143 126 21
Yuki Furukawa 0.01% 10000 751 91
Yuki Inamori 0.89% 112 126 0.10% 43 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Kono 0.03% 3333 401 94
Yuki Moriyama 0.14% 714 301 58
Yuki Shino 0.09% 1111 751 31
Yusaku Hosono 3.47% 29 26 43
Yusaku Miyazato 0.81% 123 101 43
Yusuke Sakamoto 1.07% 93 81 104
Yuta Ikeda 0.30% 333 176 37
Yuta Kawakami 0.15% 667 401 37
Yuta Kinoshita 0.05% 2000 751 91
Yuta Uetake 0.17% 588 401 48
Yuto Katsumata 0.25% 400 251 51
Yuuma Ohno 0.00% 10000 701 73
Yuwa Kosaihira 1.70% 59 56 54

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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