Simulation Results: ANA Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 0.82% 122 41 33
Daijiro Izumida 0.80% 125 86 13
Daiki Hasegawa 0.01% 10000 751 47
Daiki Imano 0.15% 667 351 94
Fumito Kawaguchi 0.00% 10000 112
Genki Okada 0.28% 357 226 60
Genzo Tokimatsu 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 62 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Guntaek Koh 0.33% 303 62
Haruto Uchiyama 0.04% 2500 601 60
Hayato Komura 0.01% 10000 1001 81
Hideto Kobukuro 0.03% 3333 751 74
Hideto Tanihara 0.50% 200 111 50
Hiroki Abe 0.03% 3333 1001 106
Hiroki Tanaka 0.13% 769 501 56
Hiroshi Iwata 1.36% 74 56 50
Hirotaro Naito 0.34% 294 201 74
Hyun-Woo Ryu 0.91% 110 126 0.10% 44 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Itsuki Kurokawa 0.04% 2500 601 62
Jigen Serizawa 0.12% 833 251 74
Justin De Los Santos 0.58% 172 126 19
Kaito Suzuki 0.10% 1000 74
Kazuki Yasumori 0.29% 345 351 27
Keigo Kaneoka 0.16% 625 126
Keisuke Ozaki 0.02% 5000 1001 106
Kento Yamawaki 0.11% 909 501 27
Kinjiro Kato 0.05% 2000 115
Kodai Ichihara 0.37% 270 111 62
Kohei Okada 1.58% 63 36 101
Koichi Kitamura 0.04% 2500 2001 44
Konosuke Nakazato 0.04% 2500 1251 90
Kosei Takeyama 0.09% 1111 501 115
Koshiro Maeda 0.76% 132 67 39
Kosuke Sunagawa 0.33% 303 176 19
Kota Kaneko 3.56% 28 21 39
Kunihiro Kamii 0.31% 323 601 0.10% 94 -0.1 Spreadex: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyo Morishita 0.02% 5000 1001 47
Masashi Hidaka 0.05% 2000 751 90
Michael Hendry 0.24% 417 226 25
Mikiya Akutsu 1.99% 50 41 81
Mikumu Horikawa 3.12% 32 26 81
Nanase Wada 0.01% 10000 1251 39
Naoyuki Kataoka 1.13% 88 56 47
Nicklaus Chiam 0.09% 1111 501 50
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.10% 1000 601 112
Ren Yonezawa 2.50% 40 19 19
Riki Kawamoto 3.65% 27 17 27
Riku Saito 0.02% 5000 1001 81
Rua Igarashi 0.00% 10000 117
Ryo Ishikawa 2.20% 45 34 2
Ryo Katsumata 1.69% 59 86 0.50% 56 -0.5 Spreadex: 85/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryohei Akizaki 0.00% 10000 101
Ryoma Iwai 0.32% 313 251 33
Ryosuke Kinoshita 3.06% 33 29 25
Ryota Wakahara 0.18% 556 201 62
Ryuji Nozawa 0.04% 2500 62
Ryunosuke Furukawa 1.71% 58 34 109
Ryutaro Nagano 2.59% 39 36 62
Satoshi Hara 0.29% 345 176 33
Satoshi Kodaira 0.71% 141 86 39
Scott Vincent 6.74% 15 10 13
Sejung Hiramoto 0.24% 417 601 0.10% 13 -0.1 Spreadex: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shaun Norris 4.03% 25 15 19
Shintaro Ban 0.21% 476 301 112
Shotaro Matsuoka 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 81 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shu Fukuzumi 0.28% 357 601 0.10% 74 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shugo Imahira 4.89% 20 19 13
Shun Niimura 0.04% 2500 751 44
Shunya Takeyasu 0.93% 108 111 94
Suguru Shimoke 0.86% 116 61 74
Taichi Kimura 0.16% 625 98
Taichi Nabetani 0.62% 161 141 27
Taichiro Ideriha 0.34% 294 141 56
Taiga Nagano 1.05% 95 67 81
Taiga Semikawa 5.20% 19 13 5
Taiga Sugihara 0.39% 256 176 50
Taihei Sato 0.82% 122 111 10
Taiki Yoshida 1.72% 58 51 5
Taiko Nishiyama 0.36% 278 226 13
Taisei Shimizu 1.46% 68 56 5
Taisei Yamada 0.12% 833 501 62
Takahiro Hataji 0.22% 455 251 90
Takanori Konishi 0.84% 119 151 0.20% 101 -0.2 Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Takara Oshima 0.19% 526 401 98
Takashi Ogiso 1.55% 65 61 5
Takeshi Tanabe 0.00% 10000 117
Takumi Kanaya 4.74% 21 15 1
Taro Miyamoto 0.00% 10000 601 109
Tatsunori Shogenji 3.52% 28 19 12
Tatsuya Kodai 0.16% 625 111 98
Terumichi Kakazu 0.36% 278 176 62
Todd Baek 0.14% 714 501 62
Tomoharu Otsuki 2.09% 48 34 4
Tomohiro Ishizaka 0.91% 110 71 33
Tomohiro Kondo 0.02% 5000 751 81
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.27% 370 201 27
Toshiki Bando 0.15% 667 601 50
Toshinori Muto 0.04% 2500 751 56
Tsubasa Ukita 0.05% 2000 1001 50
Yamato Hatta 0.08% 1250 62
Yoshinori Fujimoto 0.12% 833 351 13
Yosuke Asaji 0.39% 256 226 120
Yosuke Tsukada 0.69% 145 126 109
Young-Han Song 2.46% 41 26 3
Yujiro Ohori 0.75% 133 111 33
Yuki Furukawa 0.10% 1000 751 81
Yuki Imamura 0.00% 10000 119
Yuki Inamori 1.58% 63 81 0.30% 5 0.33 Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuki Moriyama 0.14% 714 351 94
Yuki Shino 0.09% 1111 401 19
Yuki Tanaka 0.01% 10000 1001 101
Yusaku Hosono 1.50% 67 51 10
Yusaku Miyazato 0.41% 244 101 90
Yusuke Sakamoto 1.05% 95 111 0.20% 106 -0.2 Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Ikeda 0.17% 588 251 39
Yuta Kawakami 0.27% 370 301 101
Yuta Kinoshita 0.12% 833 601 74
Yuta Sugiura 2.24% 45 29 27
Yuta Uetake 0.13% 769 401 81
Yuto Katsumata 0.28% 357 301 62
Yuwa Kosaihira 1.27% 79 61 19

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
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Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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