Simulation Results: ACN Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aguri Iwasaki 0.62% 161 101 16
Atomu Shigenaga 0.06% 1667 401 74
Brad Kennedy 1.56% 64 61 71
Chisato Takamiya 0.00% 10000 1001 89
Daijiro Izumida 1.17% 85 51 74
Daisuke Kataoka 0.22% 455 111 19
Fumihiro Ebine 0.04% 2500 751 83
Genki Okada 0.25% 400 111 53
Genzo Tokimatsu 0.32% 313 601 0.20% 56 -0.2 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hideaki Morimoto 0.00% 10000 751 92
Hideto Tanihara 0.39% 256 181 32
Hiroki Tanaka 0.23% 435 301 40
Hiroshi Iwata 1.40% 71 51 16
Hirotaro Naito 0.42% 238 201 62
Hyun-Woo Ryu 0.96% 104 91 40
Justin De Los Santos 0.80% 125 81 49
Kazuki Yasumori 1.03% 97 91 49
Kensei Hirata 1.74% 57 23 13
Kinjiro Kato 0.07% 1429 351 24
Ko Shibukawa 0.00% 10000 501 92
Kodai Ichihara 0.27% 370 176 86
Kohei Okada 1.37% 73 41 40
Kosei Takeyama 0.06% 1667 601 100
Koshiro Maeda 0.53% 189 126 59
Kosuke Sunagawa 0.45% 222 101 32
Kosuke Suzuki 0.54% 185 226 0.10% 49 -0.1 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kota Kaneko 4.08% 25 17 40
Kota Takeda 0.02% 5000 1001 89
Kunihiro Kamii 0.59% 169 251 0.20% 62 -0.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kyo Morishita 0.06% 1667 751 40
Masashi Hidaka 0.09% 1111 751 96
Masayuki Yamashita 0.44% 227 351 0.20% 19 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Hendry 0.60% 167 176 74
Mikiya Akutsu 0.93% 108 56 62
Mikumu Horikawa 3.64% 27 21 11
Motoki Tanaka 0.01% 10000 401 32
Naoto Nakanishi 0.15% 667 226 74
Naoyuki Kataoka 1.00% 100 51 2
Nicklaus Chiam 0.07% 1429 226 32
Noriyuki Kurogi 0.10% 1000 226 56
Ren Morishita 0.00% 10000 1001 105
Ren Yonezawa 2.52% 40 34 40
Riki Kawamoto 2.50% 40 26 7
Ryo Ishikawa 3.84% 26 19 7
Ryo Katsumata 2.02% 50 36 7
Ryosuke Kinoshita 3.52% 28 19 13
Ryuichi Oiwa 1.92% 52 67 0.40% 100 -0.4 Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryunosuke Furukawa 1.04% 96 61 32
Ryunosuke Yamada 0.00% 10000 401 92
Ryutaro Nagano 1.82% 55 51 24
Satoshi Hara 1.04% 96 56 74
Satoshi Kodaira 1.04% 96 46 49
Seinosuke Fukui 0.00% 10000 401 96
Sejung Hiramoto 1.06% 94 91 19
Shintaro Ban 0.20% 500 351 24
Shiso Go 0.02% 5000 1001 86
Shoji Kawai 0.00% 10000 1001 86
Shu Fukuzumi 0.74% 135 91 2
Shugo Imahira 4.25% 24 17 2
Shun Niimura 0.04% 2500 351 24
Shunya Takeyasu 0.57% 175 151 106
Suguru Shimoke 1.95% 51 29 24
Taichi Nabetani 1.12% 89 81 24
Taichiro Ideriha 0.73% 137 61 53
Taiga Nagano 1.20% 83 67 56
Taiga Semikawa 6.73% 15 15 0.10% 32 -0.1 Unibet: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiga Sugihara 0.37% 270 251 103
Taihei Sato 3.10% 32 29 40
Taiki Yoshida 3.29% 30 29 16
Taiko Nishiyama 0.25% 400 201 62
Taisei Shimizu 1.91% 52 51 74
Taisei Yamada 0.27% 370 351 62
Takahiro Hataji 0.23% 435 226 89
Takanori Konishi 0.47% 213 226 92
Takara Oshima 0.22% 455 351 74
Takashi Ogiso 2.14% 47 29 2
Takeru Michiue 0.00% 10000 351 104
Takumi Ikeda (Aug2000) 0.01% 10000 1001 100
Takumi Kobayashi 0.02% 5000 251 24
Tatsunori Shogenji 2.60% 38 51 0.70% 2 3.08 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tatsuya Kodai 0.29% 345 111 32
Terumichi Kakazu 0.46% 217 151 59
Todd Baek 0.36% 278 151 40
Tomoharu Otsuki 2.19% 46 34 59
Tomohiro Ishizaka 1.37% 73 51 11
Tomohiro Kondo 0.04% 2500 1001 62
Tomoyasu Sugiyama 0.27% 370 251 62
Toru Taniguchi 0.00% 10000 1501
Toshinori Muto 0.07% 1429 601 62
Tsubasa Ukita 0.09% 1111 251 74
Yamato Hatta 0.21% 476 226 13
Yoshinori Fujimoto 0.40% 250 176 19
Yosuke Tsukada 0.41% 244 251 83
Young-Han Song 2.89% 35 29 24
Yujiro Ohori 0.55% 182 161 19
Yuki Furukawa 0.03% 3333 251 96
Yuki Inamori 1.66% 60 51 62
Yuki Moriyama 0.12% 833 301
Yuki Shino 0.13% 769 751 74
Yusaku Hosono 2.67% 37 34 7
Yusaku Miyazato 0.39% 256 226 40
Yuta Ikeda 0.20% 500 111 71
Yuta Kawakami 0.13% 769 301 71
Yuta Kinoshita 0.12% 833 251 96
Yuta Sugiura 1.56% 64 34 1
Yuta Uetake 0.19% 526 251 83
Yuto Katsumata 0.26% 385 176 32
Yuwa Kosaihira 1.95% 51 41 53

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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