Simulation Results: Hainan Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	1.06%	94
Adri Arnaus	0.34%	294
Adrian Otaegui	1.83%	55
Albin Bergstrom	0.37%	270
Andreas Halvorsen	0.95%	105
Andy Sullivan	1.49%	67
Angel Ayora	5.35%	19
Angel Hidalgo	0.41%	244
Anthony Quayle	0.40%	250
Ashun Wu	0.61%	164
Ben Schmidt	1.46%	68
Benjamin Krug	0.00%	10000
Bo Jin	0.02%	5000
Bo Peng	0.21%	476
Bowen Chai	0.16%	625
Bowen Xiao	0.36%	278
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.83%	55
Calum Hill	2.18%	46
Cameron Adam	0.66%	152
Charles Wang	0.14%	714
Clement Charmasson	0.30%	333
Connor Mckinney	0.11%	909
Dan Bradbury	3.28%	30
Daniel Rodrigues	0.73%	137
Daniel Young	0.35%	286
Darius Van Driel	0.91%	110
David Law	0.64%	156
David Micheluzzi	0.59%	169
Davis Bryant	0.85%	118
Dylan Frittelli	0.91%	110
Eddie Pepperell	1.20%	83
Euan Walker	0.29%	345
Eugenio Chacarra	3.09%	32
Felix Mory	0.20%	500
Francesco Molinari	2.80%	36
Freddy Schott	1.10%	91
Frederic Lacroix	2.46%	41
Grant Forrest	2.90%	34
Gregorio De Leo	1.09%	92
Haizhao Tang	0.03%	3333
Hongfu Wu	0.01%	10000
Hugo Townsend	0.72%	139
Isaac Lam	0.05%	2000
Ivan Cantero	0.49%	204
Jack Senior	0.67%	149
Jack Yule	0.03%	3333
James Morrison	0.37%	270
Jan Schneider	0.15%	667
Jason Scrivener	1.75%	57
Jeff Burton	0.03%	3333
Jeong Weon Ko	0.12%	833
Joel Girrbach	1.00%	100
Jonathan Broomhead	0.39%	256
Joost Luiten	2.54%	39
Jordan Gumberg	0.63%	159
Jorge Campillo	2.68%	37
Joshua Berry	0.24%	417
Jun Liu	0.00%	10000
Junghwan Lee	0.37%	270
Justin Sui	0.01%	10000
Kaito Onishi	0.29%	345
Kakeru Ozeki	0.02%	5000
Kazuma Kobori	1.78%	56
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	1.11%	90
Kota Kaneko	1.41%	71
Kuang Yang	0.03%	3333
Lawrence Ting	0.00%	10000
Linqiang Li	0.03%	3333
Lloyd Jefferson Go	0.05%	2000
Manuel Elvira	1.15%	87
Marcus Armitage	2.06%	49
Martin Couvra	2.17%	46
Matt Killen	0.35%	286
Matthew Baldwin	0.29%	345
Matthew Jordan	1.66%	60
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.70%	143
Mikael Lindberg	1.70%	59
Mike Toorop	0.09%	1111
Nacho Elvira	1.58%	63
Nathan Kimsey	3.23%	31
Niklas Lemke	0.74%	135
Niklas Norgaard Moller	1.59%	63
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	1.09%	92
Oliver Lindell	3.74%	27
Pablo Larrazabal	0.42%	238
Quentin Debove	0.15%	667
Quim Vidal	0.10%	1000
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.22%	82
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.38%	263
Ross Fisher	0.43%	233
Ryan Ang	0.10%	1000
Ryan Peake	0.14%	714
Sampson Zheng	0.38%	263
Sean Crocker	1.44%	69
Sebastian Garcia	0.67%	149
Senshou Cao	0.01%	10000
Shawn Lu	0.10%	1000
Shubhankar Sharma	0.35%	286
Shun Yat Hak	0.10%	1000
Stefano Mazzoli	0.48%	208
Taehoon Ok	0.62%	161
Taichi Kho	0.30%	333
Thriston Lawrence	1.67%	60
Tobias Jonsson	0.74%	135
Tom Vaillant	1.02%	98
Ugo Coussaud	1.30%	77
Wenyi Ding	2.22%	45
Xinjun Zhang	0.00%	10000
Xirong Cheng	0.01%	10000
Yang Tong	0.07%	1429
Yanhan Zhou	0.63%	159
Yanwei Liu	0.31%	323
Yu Fang	0.01%	10000
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.62%	161
Yuxin Lin	0.04%	2500
Zander Lombard	0.69%	145
Zhengkai Bai	0.10%	1000
Zi Wang	0.04%	2500
Zihao Jin	0.38%	263
Zijie Huang	0.01%	10000

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN:
WIN:
WIN:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.