Simulation Results: Bahrain Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.43%	233	226
Adam Blomme	0.03%	3333	2001
Adrian Otaegui	0.50%	200	276	0.10%			Boyle Sports: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ahmed Al Zayed	0.00%	10000	5001
Albin Bergstrom	0.08%	1250	501
Alejandro Del Rey	0.89%	112	41
Alex Fitzpatrick	1.43%	70	51
Alexander Levy	0.43%	233	301	0.10%			10Bet: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ali Mohamed Alkowari	0.00%	10000	5001
Andrea Pavan	1.31%	76	71
Andreas Halvorsen	0.61%	164	131
Andrew Johnston	0.25%	400	176
Andy Sullivan	1.80%	56	46
Angel Ayora	3.01%	33	15
Angel Hidalgo	0.43%	233	201
Anthony Quayle	0.27%	370	201
Antoine Rozner	2.43%	41	36
Ben Schmidt	0.52%	192	141
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.33%	75	91	0.20%			Boyle Sports: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Stone	0.75%	133	101
Calum Hill	0.65%	154	111
Cameron Adam	0.24%	417	351
Casey Jarvis	0.98%	102	61
Clement Charmasson	0.10%	1000	501
Connor Mckinney	0.06%	1667	351
Dan Bradbury	1.41%	71	51
Daniel Gavins	0.01%	10000	3001
Daniel Hillier	3.62%	28	19
Daniel Rodrigues	0.18%	556	351
Darren Fichardt	0.19%	526	751	0.10%			QuinnBet: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
David Law	0.22%	455	251
David Micheluzzi	0.30%	333	451	0.10%			Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/5
David Ravetto	0.29%	345	276
Davis Bryant	0.41%	244	251
Dylan Frittelli	0.61%	164	126
Dylan Naidoo	0.06%	1667	2001
Eugenio Chacarra	1.39%	72	51
Ewen Ferguson	1.47%	68	51
Felix Mory	0.09%	1111	451
Filippo Celli	0.23%	435	301
Francesco Laporta	1.14%	88	71
Freddy Schott	0.27%	370	201
Frederic Lacroix	1.06%	94	81
Grant Forrest	1.50%	67	46
Gregorio De Leo	0.47%	213	201
Guido Migliozzi	0.36%	278	251
Hennie Du Plessis	1.78%	56	56
Hugo Townsend	0.41%	244	201
Ivan Cantero	0.47%	213	126
J.C. Ritchie	0.74%	135	71
Jack Senior	0.43%	233	351	0.10%			Boyle Sports: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacob Skov Olesen	0.85%	118	101
James Morrison	0.13%	769	751
Jason Scrivener	0.49%	204	301	0.20%			QuinnBet: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jayden Schaper	4.48%	22	15
Jens Dantorp	0.40%	250	351	0.10%			Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jeong Weon Ko	0.17%	588	601
Joakim Lagergren	1.25%	80	81
Joe Dean	0.50%	200	276	0.10%			Boyle Sports: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joel Girrbach	0.91%	110	111
Jonathan Broomhead	0.15%	667	276
Joost Luiten	2.16%	46	61	0.50%			Boyle Sports: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Gumberg	0.17%	588	501
Jorge Campillo	1.96%	51	56	0.20%			Ladbrokes: 50/1, 7pl, 1/5
Joshua Berry	0.06%	1667	1251
Julien Guerrier	3.35%	30	31	0.10%			Unibet: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Junghwan Lee	0.20%	500	351
Kazuma Kobori	0.88%	114	176	0.30%			Boyle Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Khalifa Almaraisi	0.00%	10000	5001
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.49%	204	201
Kota Kaneko	0.57%	175	151
Laurie Canter	2.08%	48	36
Manuel Elvira	0.73%	137	91
Marcel Schneider	1.38%	72	61
Marcel Siem	0.67%	149	201	0.20%			Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcus Kinhult	0.20%	500	401
Martin Couvra	2.10%	48	41
Matteo Manassero	0.70%	143	181	0.10%			QuinnBet: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Baldwin	0.07%	1429	1001
Matthew Jordan	0.82%	122	81
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.06%	1667	401
Michael Hollick	0.33%	303	201
Mikael Lindberg	1.00%	100	46
Nacho Elvira	0.70%	143	111
Nathan Kimsey	0.51%	196	176
Niklas Lemke	0.56%	179	201	0.10%			10Bet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Niklas Norgaard Moller	1.21%	83	51
Ockie Strydom	0.03%	3333	2001
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.32%	313	151
Oliver Lindell	1.98%	51	41
Pablo Larrazabal	0.31%	323	251
Padraig Harrington	0.17%	588	751
Patrick Reed	4.61%	22	19
Quentin Debove	0.04%	2500	401
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.20%	83	111	0.30%			BetMGM: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Renato Paratore	0.20%	500	401
Ricardo Gouveia	1.08%	93	121	0.30%			Unibet: 120/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard Sterne	0.44%	227	201
Richie Ramsay	1.26%	79	176	0.70%			Boyle Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rikuya Hoshino	1.03%	97	71
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.25%	400	201
Romain Langasque	1.17%	85	101	0.20%			10Bet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ross Fisher	0.29%	345	451	0.10%			Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ryan Palmer	0.12%	833	1001
Ryan Peake	0.03%	3333	2001
Ryggs Johnston	0.13%	769	401
Sam Bairstow	1.02%	98	91
Scott Jamieson	0.65%	154	151
Sean Crocker	0.92%	109	91
Sebastian Garcia	0.16%	625	301
Sebastian Soderberg	0.63%	159	176	0.10%			Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Sergio Garcia	1.10%	91	56
Shaun Norris	0.83%	120	251	0.40%			QuinnBet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Shubhankar Sharma	0.17%	588	601
Stefano Mazzoli	0.28%	357	176
Taehoon Ok	0.17%	588	351
Thomas Detry	3.69%	27	21
Tobias Jonsson	0.18%	556	351
Todd Clements	0.61%	164	131
Tom Sloman	0.00%	10000	1001
Ugo Coussaud	1.23%	81	56
Wenyi Ding	2.19%	46	34
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.51%	196	181
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.31%	323	351
Zander Lombard	0.85%	118	67
Zubair Firdaus	0.00%	10000	5001

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Blomme	0.14%	714	351
Adrian Otaegui	0.45%	222	151
Ahmed Al Zayed	0.00%	10000	701
Albin Bergstrom	0.20%	500	251
Alejandro Del Rey	1.11%	90	51
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.90%	111	56
Alexander Levy	0.75%	133	151	0.10%			Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ali Mohamed Alkowari	0.00%	10000	1251
Andrea Pavan	1.39%	72	81	0.20%			Skybet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Andreas Halvorsen	0.53%	189	111
Andrew Johnston	0.43%	233	126
Andy Sullivan	0.96%	104	71
Angel Ayora	1.27%	79	34
Angel Hidalgo	0.47%	213	151
Anthony Quayle	0.66%	152	176	0.10%			BetMGM: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner	1.86%	54	51
Ashun Wu	0.47%	213	176
Ben Schmidt	0.90%	111	126	0.10%			BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.53%	189	126
Bernd Wiesberger	1.05%	95	101	0.10%			Star Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.43%	70	81	0.20%			Skybet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Brandon Stone	1.03%	97	81
Calum Hill	0.57%	175	101
Cameron Adam	0.60%	167	181
Casey Jarvis	0.70%	143	61
Clement Charmasson	0.39%	256	251
Connor Mckinney	0.18%	556	226
Dan Bradbury	0.84%	119	61
Daniel Gavins	0.14%	714	476
Daniel Hillier	2.26%	44	34
Daniel Rodrigues	0.32%	313	201
Daniel Van Tonder	0.44%	227	151
Daniel Young	0.43%	233	176
Darius Van Driel	0.60%	167	151
Darren Fichardt	0.55%	182	201	0.10%			Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
David Law	0.28%	357	176
David Micheluzzi	0.38%	263	201
David Ravetto	0.65%	154	151
Davis Bryant	0.74%	135	151	0.10%			BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Frittelli	0.94%	106	101
Dylan Naidoo	0.15%	667	301
Euan Walker	0.16%	625	251
Eugenio Chacarra	0.86%	116	56
Ewen Ferguson	1.47%	68	61
Felix Mory	0.27%	370	251
Filippo Celli	0.36%	278	176
Francesco Laporta	1.21%	83	81
Freddy Schott	0.39%	256	176
Frederic Lacroix	1.22%	82	71
Grant Forrest	0.92%	109	56
Gregorio De Leo	0.47%	213	176
Guido Migliozzi	0.45%	222	151
Hennie Du Plessis	0.99%	101	56
Hugo Townsend	0.48%	208	201
Ivan Cantero	0.50%	200	101
J.C. Ritchie	0.64%	156	81
Jack Senior	0.44%	227	201
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.10%	91	81
James Morrison	0.50%	200	201
Jason Scrivener	0.85%	118	151	0.20%			Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jayden Schaper	2.60%	38	34
Jeff Winther	0.42%	238	176
Jens Dantorp	0.43%	233	201
Jeong Weon Ko	0.29%	345	201
Joakim Lagergren	0.79%	127	67
Joe Dean	0.78%	128	151	0.10%			Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Joel Girrbach	0.63%	159	91
Johannes Veerman	0.92%	109	111
Jonathan Broomhead	0.26%	385	201
Joost Luiten	1.05%	95	67
Jordan Gumberg	0.57%	175	176
Jorge Campillo	1.63%	61	61
Joshua Berry	0.31%	323	251
Julien Guerrier	2.21%	45	46
Junghwan Lee	0.37%	270	176
Kazuma Kobori	0.63%	159	126
Khalifa Almaraisi	0.00%	10000	751
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.85%	118	151	0.20%			BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kota Kaneko	0.91%	110	101
Laurie Canter	1.62%	62	46
Manuel Elvira	1.07%	93	81
Marcel Schneider	1.37%	73	61
Marcel Siem	0.62%	161	111
Marcus Kinhult	0.30%	333	176
Martin Couvra	1.00%	100	61
Matteo Manassero	0.60%	167	126
Matthew Baldwin	0.36%	278	276
Matthew Jordan	0.57%	175	91
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.40%	250	201
Michael Hollick	0.43%	233	176
Mikael Lindberg	0.66%	152	61
Nacho Elvira	1.02%	98	101
Nathan Kimsey	0.53%	189	151
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.86%	116	151	0.20%			BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Niklas Lemke	0.89%	112	126	0.10%			BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.80%	125	56
Ockie Strydom	0.25%	400	276
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.40%	250	126
Oliver Lindell	1.68%	60	51
Pablo Larrazabal	0.40%	250	151
Padraig Harrington	0.25%	400	301
Patrick Reed	1.63%	61	41
Quentin Debove	0.24%	417	201
Quim Vidal	0.34%	294	251
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.25%	80	111	0.40%			Skybet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Renato Paratore	0.32%	313	201
Ricardo Gouveia	1.22%	82	101	0.20%			Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Richard Sterne	0.48%	208	151
Richie Ramsay	0.79%	127	151	0.10%			Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Rikuya Hoshino	0.69%	145	86
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.58%	172	176
Romain Langasque	0.77%	130	91
Ross Fisher	0.40%	250	201
Ryan Palmer	0.40%	250	251
Ryan Peake	0.14%	714	401
Ryggs Johnston	0.26%	385	201
Sam Bairstow	1.18%	85	76
Scott Jamieson	0.58%	172	126
Sean Crocker	1.15%	87	76
Sebastian Garcia	0.29%	345	176
Sebastian Soderberg	0.96%	104	151	0.30%			BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sergio Garcia	1.25%	80	67
Shaun Norris	1.04%	96	111	0.10%			Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Shubhankar Sharma	0.28%	357	201
Stefano Mazzoli	0.37%	270	176
Taehoon Ok	0.53%	189	176
Thomas Detry	2.36%	42	36
Tobias Jonsson	0.57%	175	201	0.10%			BetMGM: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Todd Clements	0.93%	108	101
Tom Sloman	0.11%	909	351
Tom Vaillant	0.70%	143	91
Ugo Coussaud	1.28%	78	61
Wenyi Ding	1.73%	58	46
Yanhan Zhou	0.63%	159	101
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.54%	185	151
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.74%	135	176	0.20%			BetMGM: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zander Lombard	0.64%	156	61
Zubair Firdaus	0.00%	10000	501

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Richie Ramsay	1.26%	79	176	0.70%			Boyle Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Joost Luiten	2.16%	46	61	0.50%			Boyle Sports: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Shaun Norris	0.83%	120	251	0.40%			QuinnBet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.25%	80	111	0.40%			Skybet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Sebastian Soderberg	0.96%	104	151	0.30%			BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Andrea Pavan	1.39%	72	81	0.20%			Skybet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.43%	70	81	0.20%			Skybet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Ricardo Gouveia	1.22%	82	101	0.20%			Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Jason Scrivener	0.85%	118	151	0.20%			Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays and FRL plays will be posted on Wednesdays once markets and odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

The simulation results will be updated whenever there is a field update. Check the page updates and/or subscribe to email alerts to see if the simulation results have been updated.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.