Simulation Results: Turkish Airlines Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.35%	286	226		80
Adam Blomme	0.03%	3333	2501		38
Adri Arnaus	0.13%	769	401		118
Adrian Otaegui	1.37%	73	46		76
Albin Bergstrom	0.12%	833	601		128
Alejandro Del Rey	1.21%	83	56		29
Alexander Levy	0.61%	164	201	0.10%	139	-0.1	Betway: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	0.11%	909	501		139
Andreas Halvorsen	0.29%	345	151		80
Andres Gallegos	0.03%	3333	2001		92
Andrew Johnston	0.41%	244	151		61
Andy Sullivan	1.37%	73	56		79
Angel Ayora	3.50%	29	19		18
Angel Hidalgo	0.35%	286	351	0.10%	52	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anthony Quayle	0.42%	238	176		92
Antoine Rozner	2.49%	40	51	0.50%	29	-0.5	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashun Wu	0.49%	204	251	0.10%	29	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.08%	1250	601		105
Bernd Wiesberger	1.94%	52	51		13
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.87%	115	101		43
Brandon Stone	0.61%	164	101		38
Callum Tarren	0.18%	556	301		92
Cameron Adam	0.32%	313	301		105
Clement Charmasson	0.15%	667	501		118
Clement Sordet	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	65	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Connor Mckinney	0.04%	2500	1001		92
Connor Syme	0.07%	1429	301		139
Dan Bradbury	1.05%	95	67		80
Daniel Gavins	0.00%	10000	5001
Daniel Hillier	2.12%	47	19		105
Daniel Rodrigues	0.79%	127	126		2
Daniel Van Tonder	0.31%	323	126		92
Daniel Young	0.48%	208	226		73
Darius Van Driel	1.07%	93	101	0.10%	4	0.95	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
David Horsey	0.10%	1000	501
David Law	0.45%	222	151		128
David Micheluzzi	0.16%	625	401		65
David Puig	4.95%	20	12		18
David Ravetto	0.47%	213	111		118
Davis Bryant	0.55%	182	101		29
Dylan Frittelli	0.43%	233	151		105
Dylan Naidoo	0.10%	1000	501		92
Eddie Pepperell	0.68%	147	101		29
Edoardo Molinari	0.11%	909	351		53
Elvis Smylie	1.10%	91	67		38
Euan Walker	0.32%	313	301		53
Eugenio Chacarra	1.78%	56	34		18
Ewen Ferguson	1.83%	55	46		4
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.15%	667	401		18
Felix Mory	0.15%	667	501		105
Filippo Celli	0.14%	714	451		132
Francesco Laporta	0.81%	123	71		80
Francesco Molinari	1.55%	65	51		105
Fred Biondi	0.08%	1250	501		38
Freddy Schott	1.19%	84	67		118
Frederic Lacroix	0.67%	149	86		53
Grant Forrest	0.66%	152	101		43
Gregorio De Leo	0.63%	159	151		7
Guido Migliozzi	0.88%	114	111		2
Hennie Du Plessis	3.48%	29	23		118
Hugo Townsend	0.35%	286	176		53
Hunter Logan	0.01%	10000	1501		147
Ivan Cantero	0.13%	769	351		80
J.C. Ritchie	0.59%	169	101		9
Jack Buchanan	0.06%	1667			80
Jack Senior	0.37%	270	351	0.10%	70	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Yule	0.00%	10000	3001		151
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.80%	56	41		4
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.75%	133	111		118
James Morrison	0.24%	417	451		92
Jason Scrivener	0.68%	147	151		92
Jayden Schaper	3.26%	31	21		92
Jeff Winther	0.62%	161	201	0.10%	38	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jens Dantorp	0.30%	333	401	0.10%	18	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeong Weon Ko	0.02%	5000	1001		61
Jesper Svensson	0.97%	103	51		65
Joakim Lagergren	0.41%	244	151		18
Joe Dean	0.46%	217	201		61
Joel Girrbach	0.36%	278	201		105
Johannes Veerman	0.47%	213	101		80
Jordan Gumberg	0.25%	400	201		78
Jorge Campillo	1.47%	68	51		92
Joshua Berry	0.07%	1429	601		132
Julien Guerrier	1.73%	58	67	0.20%	53	-0.2	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kazuma Kobori	0.81%	123	126		13
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.66%	152	101		105
Kota Kaneko	1.09%	92	81		9
Leon Acikalin	0.00%	10000	5001		118
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.23%	435	301		61
M.J. Daffue	0.34%	294	141		18
Manuel Elvira	0.64%	156	126		80
Marcel Schneider	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	18	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcus Armitage	1.01%	99	76		9
Marcus Kinhult	0.44%	227	176		29
Martin Couvra	1.39%	72	41		43
Matteo Manassero	0.95%	105	101		13
Matthew Baldwin	0.24%	417	501		29
Matthew Jordan	1.11%	90	67		43
Matthew Southgate	0.16%	625	301		80
Max Kramer	0.00%	10000	3001		155
Maximilian Kieffer	0.24%	417	251		137
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.27%	370	276		80
Michael Hollick	0.21%	476	401		92
Mikael Lindberg	1.70%	59	46		1
Mike Toorop	0.02%	5000	751		70
Mutlu Guner	0.00%	10000	4001		152
Nacho Elvira	0.93%	108	91		80
Nathan Kimsey	1.58%	63	46		29
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.40%	250	176		128
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.42%	238	101		43
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.46%	217	161		92
Oliver Lindell	2.68%	37	31		43
Pablo Larrazabal	0.11%	909	501		139
Paul Waring	0.63%	159	91		105
Pavan Sagoo	0.01%	10000	3001		153
Quentin Debove	0.07%	1429	601		105
Quim Vidal	0.14%	714	401		65
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.97%	103	126	0.20%	80	-0.2	Betway: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Renato Paratore	0.11%	909	451		70
Ricardo Gouveia	0.20%	500	251		7
Richard Sterne	0.47%	213	201		139
Richard Teder	0.00%	10000	601		139
Richie Ramsay	0.32%	313	276		18
Rikuya Hoshino	0.57%	175	151		73
Robin Williams	0.11%	909	401		76
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.17%	588	351		43
Romain Langasque	0.84%	119	101		53
Ross Fisher	0.21%	476	501		132
Ryan Peake	0.07%	1429	601		132
Ryan Van Velzen	0.07%	1429	751		132
Ryggs Johnston	0.07%	1429	501		147
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.38%	263	151		18
Sam Bairstow	0.66%	152	101		29
Scott Jamieson	0.37%	270	201		154
Sean Crocker	0.38%	263	176		128
Sebastian Soderberg	0.60%	167	151		60
Shubhankar Sharma	0.33%	303	276		65
Simon Forsstrom	0.12%	833	501		105
Stefano Mazzoli	0.13%	769	401		118
Taner Yamac	0.00%	10000	5001		147
Tapio Pulkkanen	0.17%	588	201		43
Tarik Aslan	0.00%	10000	2501		147
Thriston Lawrence	1.67%	60	67	0.20%	53	-0.2	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tobias Jonsson	0.34%	294	251		18
Todd Clements	0.75%	133	81		13
Tom Mckibbin	2.68%	37	21		105
Tom Vaillant	1.11%	90	81		105
Ugo Coussaud	1.37%	73	67		9
Wenyi Ding	1.32%	76	46		13
Yanhan Zhou	0.30%	333	81		75
Yannik Paul	0.11%	909	501		118
Yordan Yanakiev	0.00%	10000	4001		138
Yurav Premlall	0.12%	833	601		139
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.45%	222	176		92
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.11%	909	751		43
Zander Lombard	0.38%	263	151		118

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.65%	154	141		82
Adam Blomme	0.21%	476	351		5
Adri Arnaus	0.34%	294	201		98
Adrian Otaegui	1.21%	83	61		22
Albin Bergstrom	0.35%	286	201		120
Alejandro Del Rey	1.15%	87	71		2
Alexander Levy	0.66%	152	126		138
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	0.30%	333	201		154
Andreas Halvorsen	0.46%	217	126		82
Andres Gallegos	0.22%	455	351		37
Andrew Johnston	0.62%	161	111		138
Andy Sullivan	1.02%	98	67		37
Angel Ayora	1.98%	51	36		37
Angel Hidalgo	0.49%	204	176		37
Anthony Quayle	0.56%	179	126		131
Antoine Rozner	1.36%	74	56		37
Ashun Wu	0.73%	137	141		10
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.30%	333	201		82
Bernd Wiesberger	1.17%	85	61		37
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.82%	122	86		37
Brandon Stone	0.81%	123	91		63
Callum Tarren	0.47%	213	161		98
Cameron Adam	0.49%	204	176		98
Clement Charmasson	0.41%	244	201		98
Clement Sordet	0.49%	204	176		98
Connor Mckinney	0.24%	417	301		98
Connor Syme	0.27%	370	176		151
Dan Bradbury	1.09%	92	71		145
Daniel Gavins	0.04%	2500	801
Daniel Hillier	1.27%	79	34		63
Daniel Rodrigues	0.88%	114	81		63
Daniel Van Tonder	0.47%	213	111		2
Daniel Young	0.58%	172	141		37
Darius Van Driel	0.95%	105	91		63
David Horsey	0.31%	323	201
David Law	0.71%	141	111		82
David Micheluzzi	0.42%	238	176		63
David Puig	2.01%	50	29		37
David Ravetto	0.59%	169	111		138
Davis Bryant	0.66%	152	101		37
Dylan Frittelli	0.64%	156	111		63
Dylan Naidoo	0.31%	323	226		22
Eddie Pepperell	0.68%	147	86		22
Edoardo Molinari	0.37%	270	151		37
Elvis Smylie	0.82%	122	71		22
Euan Walker	0.46%	217	176		37
Eugenio Chacarra	1.36%	74	51		63
Ewen Ferguson	1.37%	73	61		2
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.30%	333	201		120
Felix Mory	0.35%	286	251		98
Filippo Celli	0.32%	313	226		98
Francesco Laporta	0.75%	133	81		98
Francesco Molinari	1.24%	81	61		10
Fred Biondi	0.33%	303	201		10
Freddy Schott	0.91%	110	71		138
Frederic Lacroix	0.87%	115	81		5
Grant Forrest	0.80%	125	81		37
Gregorio De Leo	0.71%	141	111		10
Guido Migliozzi	0.86%	116	101		37
Hennie Du Plessis	1.95%	51	41		98
Hugo Townsend	0.51%	196	126		22
Hunter Logan	0.12%	833	351		120
Ivan Cantero	0.41%	244	161		10
J.C. Ritchie	0.64%	156	91		22
Jack Buchanan	0.29%	345			98
Jack Senior	0.60%	167	161		37
Jack Yule	0.11%	909	451		131
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.18%	85	61		22
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.72%	139	101		120
James Morrison	0.49%	204	176		82
Jason Scrivener	0.84%	119	111		63
Jayden Schaper	1.61%	62	36		22
Jeff Winther	0.78%	128	126		63
Jens Dantorp	0.57%	175	161		5
Jeong Weon Ko	0.20%	500	251		37
Jesper Svensson	0.94%	106	67		22
Joakim Lagergren	0.60%	167	111		63
Joe Dean	0.71%	141	141		131
Joel Girrbach	0.54%	185	176		82
Johannes Veerman	0.56%	179	111		63
Jordan Gumberg	0.47%	213	141		63
Jorge Campillo	1.09%	92	71		37
Joshua Berry	0.22%	455	251		98
Julien Guerrier	1.31%	76	67		98
Kazuma Kobori	0.79%	127	111		22
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.71%	141	86		37
Kota Kaneko	1.10%	91	81		63
Leon Acikalin	0.05%	2000	801		98
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.44%	227	161		10
M.J. Daffue	0.47%	213	126		37
Manuel Elvira	0.64%	156	111		82
Marcel Schneider	0.82%	122	111		10
Marcus Armitage	0.86%	116	81		63
Marcus Kinhult	0.61%	164	111		10
Martin Couvra	1.18%	85	61		5
Matteo Manassero	0.86%	116	86		10
Matthew Baldwin	0.51%	196	176		63
Matthew Jordan	1.01%	99	76		22
Matthew Southgate	0.38%	263	176		120
Max Kramer	0.02%	5000	451		155
Maximilian Kieffer	0.40%	250	176		138
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.51%	196	151		10
Michael Hollick	0.41%	244	176		82
Mikael Lindberg	1.13%	88	61		1
Mike Toorop	0.16%	625	201		82
Mutlu Guner	0.02%	5000	451		131
Nacho Elvira	0.95%	105	81		82
Nathan Kimsey	1.01%	99	61		120
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.58%	172	141		98
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.64%	156	101		82
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.58%	172	141		82
Oliver Lindell	1.44%	69	46		37
Pablo Larrazabal	0.36%	278	201		98
Paul Waring	0.77%	130	91		120
Pavan Sagoo	0.13%	769	451		151
Quentin Debove	0.29%	345	201		98
Quim Vidal	0.33%	303	176		22
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.94%	106	91		82
Renato Paratore	0.29%	345	201		131
Ricardo Gouveia	0.41%	244	151		37
Richard Sterne	0.57%	175	151		145
Richard Teder	0.09%	1111	201		145
Richie Ramsay	0.58%	172	141		37
Rikuya Hoshino	0.67%	149	126		63
Robin Williams	0.33%	303	176		37
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.34%	294	176		10
Romain Langasque	0.82%	122	101		98
Ross Fisher	0.45%	222	176		138
Ryan Peake	0.30%	333	201		145
Ryan Van Velzen	0.25%	400	251		145
Ryggs Johnston	0.22%	455	251		138
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.63%	159	101		37
Sam Bairstow	0.84%	119	101		5
Scott Jamieson	0.62%	161	141		153
Sean Crocker	0.61%	164	111		120
Sebastian Soderberg	0.74%	135	111		82
Shubhankar Sharma	0.48%	208	151		22
Simon Forsstrom	0.39%	256	176		63
Stefano Mazzoli	0.32%	313	176		98
Taner Yamac	0.02%	5000	501		120
Tapio Pulkkanen	0.43%	233	141		98
Tarik Aslan	0.02%	5000	351		145
Thriston Lawrence	1.07%	93	67		63
Tobias Jonsson	0.49%	204	176		82
Todd Clements	0.86%	116	81		37
Tom Mckibbin	1.48%	68	41		82
Tom Vaillant	1.03%	97	76		63
Ugo Coussaud	1.03%	97	71		98
Wenyi Ding	1.04%	96	61		37
Yanhan Zhou	0.58%	172	81		22
Yannik Paul	0.32%	313	201		120
Yordan Yanakiev	0.01%	10000	401		131
Yurav Premlall	0.40%	250	201		120
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.69%	145	111		22
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.32%	313	301		10
Zander Lombard	0.57%	175	111		131

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Antoine Rozner	2.49%	40	51	0.50%	29	-2	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Julien Guerrier	1.73%	58	67	0.20%	53	-2	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Thriston Lawrence	1.67%	60	67	0.20%	53	-2	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.