Simulation Results: Turkish Airlines Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.58% 172 201 0.10% 88 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adri Arnaus 0.41% 244 151 101
Adrian Otaegui 2.23% 45 61 0.60% 67 -0.6 Betfred: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrien Saddier 2.95% 34 36 0.20% 56 -0.2 Paddy Power: 33/1, 7pl, 1/5
Albert Boneta 0.24% 417 201 111
Alejandro Del Rey 0.70% 143 61 88
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.19% 84 61 17
Alexander George Frances 0.05% 2000 751 127
Alexander Levy 0.27% 370 126 127
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.18% 556 501 127
Andreas Halvorsen 0.38% 263 126 67
Andrew Wilson 0.35% 286 201 17
Andy Sullivan 1.69% 59 67 0.20% 111 -0.2 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Angel Ayora 0.88% 114 46 61
Angel Hidalgo 0.57% 175 151 101
Bastien Amat 0.03% 3333 751 67
Ben Schmidt 0.35% 286 151 67
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.05% 2000 601 101
Benjamin Hebert 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 67 -0.1 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Robinson Thompson 1.39% 72 67 4
Brandon Wu 1.46% 68 101 0.50% 88 -0.5 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Callum Shinkwin 0.64% 156 101 116
Callum Tarren 0.58% 172 176 127
Calum Hill 1.08% 93 67 67
Can Gurdenli 0.00% 10000 4001 152
Casey Jarvis 0.66% 152 101 88
Chris Wood 0.04% 2500 1001 7
Christofer Blomstrand 0.02% 5000 751 24
Clement Sordet 0.20% 500 301 24
Connor Syme 0.63% 159 101 116
Conor Purcell 0.50% 200 126 116
Corey Shaun 0.07% 1429 751 49
Daan Huizing 0.20% 500 401 67
Dale Whitnell 0.17% 588 401 127
Dan Bradbury 0.76% 132 126 67
Dan Erickson 0.19% 526 401 17
Daniel Gale 0.08% 1250 501 67
Daniel Young 0.15% 667 401 88
Danny List 0.14% 714 501 127
David Ravetto 0.47% 213 126 88
Davis Bryant 0.54% 185 126 33
Deon Germishuys 0.41% 244 251 141
Dylan Frittelli 0.63% 159 91 56
Dylan Naidoo 0.20% 500 251 61
Eddie Pepperell 0.54% 185 126 155
Ediz Kemaloglu 0.00% 10000 2501 146
Edoardo Molinari 1.58% 63 81 0.30% 24 -0.3 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Elisey Antropenko 0.00% 10000 2501 154
Ewen Ferguson 2.05% 49 51 0.10% 33 -0.1 Paddy Power: 50/1, 7pl, 1/5
Francesco Laporta 1.08% 93 67 67
Freddy Schott 0.33% 303 151 67
Frederic Lacroix 1.51% 66 67 24
Grant Forrest 0.66% 152 101 67
Gregorio De Leo 0.38% 263 201 24
Guido Migliozzi 1.16% 86 67 17
Gunner Wiebe 0.09% 1111 751 135
Hamish Brown 0.23% 435 201 52
Haotong Li 2.54% 39 17 2
Ivan Cantero 0.49% 204 81 111
Jack Senior 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 101 -0.1 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacob Skov Olesen 1.24% 81 67 12
Jacques Kruyswijk 1.26% 79 51 67
James Morrison 0.11% 909 751 116
Jamie Rutherford 0.48% 208 151 33
Jannik De Bruyn 0.26% 385 226 135
Jayden Schaper 1.11% 90 56 24
Jean Bekirian 0.06% 1667 601 67
Jeff Winther 0.75% 133 151 0.10% 101 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 8pl, 1/5
Jens Dantorp 1.29% 78 111 0.40% 65 -0.4 BetVictor: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jens Fahrbring 0.20% 500 601 111
Jeong Weon Ko 0.28% 357 201 101
Joakim Lagergren 0.35% 286 176 67
Joe Dean 0.50% 200 126 127
Joel Girrbach 0.12% 833 501 33
Joel Moscatel 0.21% 476 251 101
Johannes Veerman 1.68% 60 41 88
John Parry 1.41% 71 61 33
Joost Luiten 3.30% 30 31 0.10% 5 0.23 Paddy Power: 28/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jordan Gumberg 0.46% 217 151 66
Jordan Smith 3.16% 32 21 7
Jorge Campillo 2.33% 43 51 0.40% 2 2.3 QuinnBet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Brun 0.02% 5000 601 146
Julien Guerrier 2.11% 47 46 52
Justin Harding 0.14% 714 301 88
Justin Walters 0.26% 385 401 141
Kai Notteboom 0.00% 10000 2001 146
Kazuma Kobori 1.27% 79 91 0.20% 52 -0.2 Unibet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kristoffer Reitan 0.60% 167 81 33
Leon Acikalin 0.01% 10000 2501 33
Louis Albertse 0.11% 909 751 116
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.09% 1111 501 24
Lukas Nemecz 0.66% 152 176 0.10% 67 -0.1 Skybet: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Luke Donald 0.18% 556 501 111
Manuel Elvira 0.25% 400 251 52
Marcel Schneider 1.26% 79 81 44
Marco Penge 1.33% 75 36 67
Marcus Armitage 1.04% 96 126 0.20% 88 -0.2 William Hill: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcus Kinhult 0.79% 127 91 12
Martin Couvra 1.52% 66 67 1
Martin Trainer 0.06% 1667 751
Matt Sharpstene 0.01% 10000 1001 150
Matthew Baldwin 0.39% 256 401 0.10% 88 -0.1 Paddy Power: 400/1, 7pl, 1/5
Matthew Jordan 2.20% 45 34 17
Matthew Southgate 0.47% 213 176 5
Matthias Schwab 0.13% 769 601 127
Matthis Besard 0.37% 270 176 63
Maximilian Kieffer 0.64% 156 151 67
Maximilian Steinlechner 0.35% 286 111 116
Mehmet Ceylan 0.00% 10000 4001 150
Mikael Lindberg 0.16% 625 401 24
Nacho Elvira 0.91% 110 81 7
Nathan Kimsey 1.19% 84 101 0.20% 49 -0.2 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicolai Kristensen 0.05% 2000 751 152
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.27% 370 201 44
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.26% 385 301 17
Niklas Lemke 0.46% 217 91 17
Ockie Strydom 0.09% 1111 751 88
Oliver Lindell 0.59% 169 101 12
Oliver Wilson 0.07% 1429 751 49
Pavan Sagoo 0.02% 5000 2501 63
Pierre Pineau 0.08% 1250 601 135
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.23% 435 501 33
Ricardo Gouveia 0.85% 118 101 67
Richard Mansell 1.87% 53 46 12
Robin Williams 0.36% 278 201 7
Romain Langasque 1.76% 57 61 0.10% 44 -0.1 Paddy Power: 60/1, 7pl, 1/5
Ross Fisher 0.28% 357 351 101
Ryan Van Velzen 0.16% 625 351 135
Ryggs Johnston 0.23% 435 251 33
Sam Bairstow 2.08% 48 34 7
Sam Hutsby 0.08% 1250 751 116
Santiago Tarrio 0.19% 526 601 60
Sean Crocker 1.36% 74 67 155
Sebastian Garcia 0.19% 526 276 116
Sebastian Soderberg 1.18% 85 67 47
Simon Forsstrom 0.15% 667 501 56
Soren Kjeldsen 0.14% 714 751 67
Sung Kang 0.06% 1667 751 144
Tadeas Tetak 0.21% 476 301 116
Taner Yamac 0.00% 10000 4001 144
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.99% 101 67 101
Tarik Aslan 0.00% 10000 1001 141
Tiger Christensen 0.02% 5000 1501 33
Todd Clements 1.04% 96 81 24
Ugo Coussaud 1.96% 51 46 47
Ulas Karatas 0.00% 10000 5001 135
Veer Ahlawat 0.16% 625 501 135
Wenyi Ding 1.95% 51 26 12
Wil Besseling 0.15% 667 401 116
Wilco Nienaber 0.57% 175 67 33
Wouter De Vries 0.08% 1250 751 88
Yannik Paul 1.38% 72 61 56
Yurav Premlall 0.32% 313 151 88
Yuto Katsuragawa 1.02% 98 81 67
Zander Lombard 0.11% 909 251 116
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 251 101

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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