Simulation Results: Soudal Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.53% 189 176 31
Adrian Otaegui 1.68% 60 51 67
Adrien Saddier 1.39% 72 36 155
Alan De Bondt 0.00% 10000 2501 65
Alejandro Del Rey 0.38% 263 126 41
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.43% 70 81 0.20% 11 -0.2 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alexander George Frances 0.04% 2500 601 49
Alexander Knappe 0.07% 1429 1001 136
Alexander Levy 0.08% 1250 501 98
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.09% 1111 751 49
Algot Kleen 0.01% 10000 301 31
Andrea Pavan 1.03% 97 81 31
Andreas Halvorsen 0.27% 370 201 67
Andrew Wilson 0.68% 147 151 16
Andy Sullivan 0.73% 137 101 11
Angel Ayora 0.63% 159 81 11
Angel Hidalgo 0.60% 167 151 49
Arthur Estas 0.00% 10000 2501 126
Ben Schmidt 0.39% 256 226 16
Benjamin Hebert 0.45% 222 226 31
Bernd Wiesberger 1.23% 81 111 0.30% 25 -0.3 Betfred: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bjorn Akesson 0.06% 1667 751 98
Brandon Robinson Thompson 1.75% 57 56 31
Brandon Stone 1.24% 81 56 67
Brandon Wu 0.85% 118 151 0.20% 126 -0.2 Skybet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Callum Shinkwin 0.23% 435 201 41
Callum Tarren 0.27% 370 301 67
Calum Hill 0.95% 105 101 85
Casey Jarvis 0.42% 238 151 37
Chris Wood 0.19% 526 501 65
Clement Sordet 0.24% 417 301 98
Connor Syme 0.46% 217 176 121
Conor Purcell 0.35% 286 251 49
Corey Shaun 0.11% 909 601 136
Daan Huizing 0.14% 714 501 85
Dale Whitnell 0.12% 833 501 67
Dan Bradbury 0.68% 147 151 143
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.63% 159 101 63
Daniel Gale 0.07% 1429 1001 129
Daniel Hillier 1.02% 98 67 108
Darius Van Driel 0.30% 333 201 2
David Micheluzzi 0.48% 208 126 85
David Ravetto 0.31% 323 201 37
Davis Bryant 0.55% 182 151 149
Deon Germishuys 0.30% 333 251 136
Dylan Frittelli 0.60% 167 176 85
Dylan Naidoo 0.11% 909 501 150
Edoardo Molinari 1.29% 78 61 49
Eugenio Chacarra 2.67% 37 29 31
Ewen Ferguson 1.73% 58 41 2
Fabrizio Zanotti 1.03% 97 101 25
Francesco Laporta 0.99% 101 56 11
Francesco Molinari 0.66% 152 111 41
Freddy Schott 0.23% 435 226 108
Frederic Lacroix 1.18% 85 51 23
Gavin Green 0.36% 278 151 143
Grant Forrest 0.53% 189 151 16
Gregorio De Leo 0.40% 250 201 59
Guido Migliozzi 1.60% 63 51 49
Hamish Brown 0.22% 455 351 108
Haotong Li 1.76% 57 31 4
Ivan Cantero 0.25% 400 176 41
Jack Senior 0.26% 385 301 41
Jacob Skov Olesen 1.30% 77 67 41
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.81% 123 71 108
James Meyer De Beco 0.05% 2000 751 129
Jamie Donaldson 0.08% 1250 751 108
Jannik De Bruyn 0.14% 714 351 129
Jarno Tollenaire 0.02% 5000 2501 136
Jason Scrivener 0.71% 141 126 37
Jayden Schaper 1.22% 82 51 85
Jens Dantorp 0.56% 179 101 143
Jeong Weon Ko 0.21% 476 251 143
Joakim Lagergren 0.25% 400 351 67
Joe Dean 0.62% 161 91 67
Joel Girrbach 0.17% 588 501 98
Joel Moscatel 0.11% 909 501 67
Johannes Veerman 1.26% 79 71 67
John Parry 0.97% 103 61 4
Joost Luiten 2.55% 39 34 16
Jordan Gumberg 0.25% 400 201 49
Jordan Smith 2.57% 39 21 4
Jorge Campillo 2.51% 40 41 0.10% 136 -0.1 Betfred: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julian Geerebaert 0.00% 10000 2501 153
Julien Brun 0.02% 5000 1001 41
Julien Guerrier 1.47% 68 67 108
Kazuma Kobori 0.77% 130 91 25
Keita Nakajima 2.26% 44 34 85
Kristof Ulenaers 0.00% 10000 2501 126
Kristoffer Reitan 0.48% 208 126 1
Lars Buijs 0.00% 10000 4001 136
Lev Grinberg 0.04% 2500 751 108
Liam Bentein 0.00% 10000 3001 148
Loris Maquet 0.00% 10000 3001 154
Louis De Jager 0.07% 1429 751 155
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.13% 769 501 108
Manuel Elvira 0.23% 435 301 11
Marcel Schneider 0.95% 105 91 108
Marcel Siem 0.29% 345 201 67
Marco Penge 1.38% 72 41 25
Marcus Armitage 0.53% 189 151 41
Marcus Kinhult 0.85% 118 101 129
Martin Couvra 1.66% 60 46 67
Martin Trainer 0.06% 1667 1001 151
Matteo Manassero 1.56% 64 51 49
Matthew Baldwin 0.30% 333 351 129
Matthew Jordan 2.43% 41 34 9
Matthew Southgate 1.09% 92 101 0.10% 64 -0.1 Skybet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthias Schwab 0.04% 2500 1001 98
Matthis Besard 0.16% 625 301 108
Maximilian Kieffer 0.46% 217 176 67
Mikael Lindberg 0.19% 526 501 85
Nacho Elvira 1.24% 81 81 16
Nathan Cossement 0.00% 10000 2001 151
Nathan Kimsey 0.94% 106 101 67
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.35% 286 226 85
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.24% 417 351 67
Niklas Lemke 0.62% 161 101 108
Ockie Strydom 0.07% 1429 1001 129
Oliver Lindell 0.61% 164 126 25
Pablo Larrazabal 0.52% 192 126 85
Pierre Pineau 0.06% 1667 751 67
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.23% 435 451 61
Ricardo Gouveia 0.31% 323 176 121
Richard Mansell 1.77% 56 46 98
Richard Sterne 0.08% 1250 751 98
Robin Williams 0.48% 208 201 59
Romain Langasque 1.46% 68 67 9
Ross Fisher 0.22% 455 501 85
Ryan Van Velzen 0.18% 556 501 98
Ryggs Johnston 0.30% 333 251 136
Sam Bairstow 2.24% 45 41 16
Scott Jamieson 0.67% 149 126 108
Sean Crocker 0.84% 119 111 16
Sebastian Garcia 0.15% 667 501 98
Sebastian Soderberg 0.91% 110 81 49
Shubhankar Sharma 0.30% 333 251 121
Simon Forsstrom 0.19% 526 301 25
Tadeas Tetak 0.12% 833 501 129
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.41% 244 176 108
Thomas Aiken 0.36% 278 301 49
Thomas Pieters 3.11% 32 23 67
Thriston Lawrence 1.27% 79 81 4
Todd Clements 1.05% 95 71 85
Tom Vaillant 0.55% 182 141 67
Troy Merritt 0.30% 333 301 4
Ugo Coussaud 1.10% 91 67 23
Veer Ahlawat 0.06% 1667 751 85
Wenyi Ding 1.63% 61 41 121
Wil Besseling 0.07% 1429 501 67
Wilco Nienaber 0.55% 182 126 85
Yannik Paul 0.83% 120 91 37
Yente Van Doren 0.00% 10000 2501 98
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.52% 192 111 61
Zander Lombard 0.06% 1667 501 121
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 501 143

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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