Simulation Results: Soudal Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.41%	244	166		77
Adam Blomme	0.14%	714	751		63
Adri Arnaus	0.17%	588	501		93
Adrian Meronk	0.96%	104	81		116
Adrian Otaegui	0.77%	130	61		77
Albin Bergstrom	0.18%	556	601		13
Alexander Levy	0.44%	227	176		24
Andreas Halvorsen	0.64%	156	111		41
Andres Gallegos	0.04%	2500	1501		104
Andrew Johnston	0.44%	227	131		13
Andy Sullivan	1.06%	94	67		47
Angel Hidalgo	0.44%	227	151		116
Anthony De Schutter	0.00%	10000	2001		41
Anthony Quayle	0.27%	370	251		104
Arthur Haghedooren	0.00%	10000	3001		68
Ben Schmidt	0.66%	152	126		8
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.16%	625	401		93
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.84%	119	101		104
Brandon Stone	0.72%	139	111		104
Caleb Surratt	1.20%	83	51		70
Callum Tarren	0.23%	435	501		77
Calum Hill	2.40%	42	61	0.80%	59	-0.8	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Adam	0.24%	417	601	0.10%	41	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Casey Jarvis	1.53%	65	29		22
Clement Charmasson	0.06%	1667	1001		47
Connor Mckinney	0.04%	2500	1001		150
Connor Syme	0.07%	1429	401		74
Daan Huizing	0.07%	1429	1001		127
Daniel Gavins	0.00%	10000	5001		156
Daniel Hillier	2.50%	40	21		130
Daniel Rodrigues	1.19%	84	71		145
Daniel Young	0.28%	357	226		130
Darius Van Driel	1.30%	77	51		13
David Law	0.55%	182	101		104
David Micheluzzi	0.15%	667	501		77
David Ravetto	0.42%	238	141		30
Davis Bryant	0.50%	200	111		30
Deon Germishuys	0.14%	714	501		137
Dylan Naidoo	0.09%	1111	1001		116
Eddie Pepperell	0.88%	114	46		24
Edoardo Molinari	0.11%	909	601		93
Euan Walker	0.15%	667	301		30
Eugenio Chacarra	2.35%	43	31		22
Ewen Ferguson	2.77%	36	23		77
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.32%	313	301		17
Felix Mory	0.11%	909	501		116
Filippo Celli	0.19%	526	351		116
Francesco Laporta	1.20%	83	67		17
Frank Kennedy	0.13%	769	751		137
Fred Biondi	0.23%	435	601	0.10%	77	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Freddy Schott	0.55%	182	101		77
Frederic Lacroix	0.74%	135	71		93
Gavin Green	0.01%	10000	751		70
Grant Forrest	0.95%	105	111		77
Gregorio De Leo	0.56%	179	111		8
Hennie Du Plessis	1.93%	52	36		63
Hugo Townsend	0.38%	263	176		104
Hunter Logan	0.01%	10000	2501		145
Ivan Cantero	0.28%	357	251		53
J.C. Ritchie	1.69%	59	56		93
Jack Buchanan	0.07%	1429			24
Jack Senior	0.35%	286	301		116
Jack Yule	0.01%	10000	5001		130
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.57%	64	56		2
James Meyer De Beco	0.06%	1667	751		116
James Morrison	0.17%	588	351		137
James Skeet	0.00%	10000	5001		145
Jarno Tollenaire	0.00%	10000	3001		155
Jason Scrivener	0.74%	135	126		30
Jayden Schaper	2.40%	42	23		24
Jeff Winther	0.76%	132	176	0.20%	17	-0.2	Betfred: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jens Dantorp	0.38%	263	251		30
Jeong Weon Ko	0.08%	1250	751		137
Joakim Lagergren	0.87%	115	81		127
Joe Dean	0.59%	169	176		47
Joel Girrbach	0.29%	345	251		77
Jonathan Broomhead	0.22%	455	401		41
Joost Luiten	1.00%	100	111	0.10%	74	-0.1	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Gumberg	0.19%	526	201		104
Jorge Campillo	1.21%	83	61		2
Jose Luis Ballester	2.19%	46	23		104
Joshua Berry	0.05%	2000	1501		150
Julien Guerrier	1.10%	91	71		47
Kazuma Kobori	1.50%	67	51		77
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.90%	111	101		116
Kota Kaneko	1.43%	70	67		2
Kristof Ulenaers	0.03%	3333	601		59
Lars Buijs	0.00%	10000	5001		145
Lev Grinberg	0.02%	5000	501		74
Liam Bentein	0.00%	10000	4001		154
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.43%	233	201		93
M.J. Daffue	0.64%	156	126		8
Manuel Elvira	0.75%	133	126		30
Marcel Schneider	0.88%	114	111		30
Marcel Siem	0.05%	2000	401		53
Marcus Armitage	0.88%	114	81		2
Marcus Helligkilde	0.04%	2500	451		116
Marcus Kinhult	0.37%	270	151		2
Martin Couvra	1.51%	66	46		24
Matteo Manassero	1.10%	91	101	0.10%	53	-0.1	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Baldwin	0.24%	417	226		47
Matthew Jordan	1.68%	60	41		127
Matthis Besard	0.09%	1111	401		104
Maximilian Kieffer	0.21%	476	401		130
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.21%	476	226		59
Michael Hollick	0.19%	526	401		104
Mikael Lindberg	2.33%	43	36		17
Mike Toorop	0.02%	5000	1501		130
Nacho Elvira	1.63%	61	56		150
Nathan Cossement	0.00%	10000	3001		116
Nathan Kimsey	1.09%	92	36		8
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.26%	385	301		70
Nicolas Colsaerts	0.14%	714	401		93
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.71%	141	101		116
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.81%	123	91		137
Oliver Lindell	2.64%	38	31		30
Pablo Larrazabal	0.10%	1000	501		93
Paul Waring	1.03%	97	71		30
Quentin Debove	0.05%	2000	751		68
Quim Vidal	0.17%	588	451		93
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.09%	92	76		137
Renato Paratore	0.11%	909	501		30
Ricardo Gouveia	0.55%	182	111		24
Richard Mansell	0.80%	125	91		77
Richard Sterne	0.21%	476	401		1
Richie Ramsay	1.12%	89	126	0.30%	93	-0.3	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino	0.46%	217	201		53
Robin Williams	0.16%	625	1251	0.10%	77	-0.1	Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.24%	417	251		47
Romain Langasque	0.86%	116	101		53
Ross Fisher	0.29%	345	351		73
Ryan Peake	0.05%	2000	1501		137
Ryggs Johnston	0.03%	3333	1251		150
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.42%	238	151		63
Sam Bairstow	1.02%	98	81		130
Scott Jamieson	0.18%	556	301		63
Sean Crocker	0.47%	213	161		41
Sebastian Garcia	0.26%	385	251		137
Shubhankar Sharma	0.19%	526	351		104
Simon Forsstrom	0.11%	909	501		77
Stefano Mazzoli	0.29%	345	301		104
Thomas Detry	5.69%	18	13		53
Thriston Lawrence	1.34%	75	56		77
Tobias Jonsson	0.35%	286	226		77
Todd Clements	0.86%	116	81		130
Tom Vaillant	0.97%	103	96		13
Ugo Coussaud	1.75%	57	46		93
Victor Perez	2.32%	43	29		2
Wenyi Ding	0.94%	106	67		17
Yanhan Zhou	0.19%	526	176		41
Yannik Paul	0.18%	556	451		77
Yente Van Doren	0.01%	10000	2501		145
Yurav Premlall	0.44%	227	67		30
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.40%	250	201		59
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.22%	455	351		63
Zander Lombard	0.27%	370	226		8

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.56%	179	101		50
Adam Blomme	0.39%	256	251		99
Adri Arnaus	0.43%	233	176		72
Adrian Meronk	0.96%	104	86		72
Adrian Otaegui	0.83%	120	81		118
Albin Bergstrom	0.38%	263	201		16
Alexander Levy	0.66%	152	126		50
Andreas Halvorsen	0.74%	135	101		99
Andres Gallegos	0.22%	455	351		72
Andrew Johnston	0.62%	161	111		50
Andy Sullivan	0.94%	106	81		5
Angel Hidalgo	0.60%	167	101		50
Anthony De Schutter	0.00%	10000	401		16
Anthony Quayle	0.43%	233	151		132
Arthur Haghedooren	0.01%	10000	451		118
Ben Schmidt	0.77%	130	91		5
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.36%	278	176		30
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.94%	106	91		99
Brandon Stone	0.79%	127	86		118
Caleb Surratt	1.04%	96	67		99
Callum Tarren	0.45%	222	201		99
Calum Hill	1.49%	67	67		16
Cameron Adam	0.49%	204	201		5
Casey Jarvis	1.14%	88	51		16
Clement Charmasson	0.27%	370	226		30
Connor Mckinney	0.23%	435	251		118
Connor Syme	0.26%	385	251		50
Daan Huizing	0.25%	400	251		132
Daniel Gavins	0.04%	2500	601		148
Daniel Hillier	1.50%	67	46		118
Daniel Rodrigues	0.99%	101	81		156
Daniel Young	0.54%	185	151		152
Darius Van Driel	1.12%	89	71		50
David Law	0.66%	152	101		132
David Micheluzzi	0.34%	294	201		118
David Ravetto	0.60%	167	111		72
Davis Bryant	0.68%	147	91		99
Deon Germishuys	0.38%	263	201		118
Dylan Naidoo	0.27%	370	251		99
Eddie Pepperell	0.86%	116	71		50
Edoardo Molinari	0.33%	303	226		50
Euan Walker	0.37%	270	151		99
Eugenio Chacarra	1.43%	70	46		30
Ewen Ferguson	1.54%	65	46		99
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.54%	185	176		16
Felix Mory	0.31%	323	226		72
Filippo Celli	0.41%	244	176		72
Francesco Laporta	1.09%	92	81		72
Frank Kennedy	0.31%	323	251		132
Fred Biondi	0.46%	217	201		50
Freddy Schott	0.65%	154	91		72
Frederic Lacroix	0.78%	128	91		99
Gavin Green	0.16%	625	226		143
Grant Forrest	0.87%	115	86		72
Gregorio De Leo	0.72%	139	91		5
Hennie Du Plessis	1.20%	83	56		72
Hugo Townsend	0.57%	175	126		99
Hunter Logan	0.12%	833	401		152
Ivan Cantero	0.46%	217	151		50
J.C. Ritchie	1.23%	81	67		99
Jack Buchanan	0.27%	370			16
Jack Senior	0.58%	172	161		118
Jack Yule	0.11%	909	451		118
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.20%	83	71		2
James Meyer De Beco	0.25%	400	251		72
James Morrison	0.44%	227	201		118
James Skeet	0.00%	10000	451		132
Jarno Tollenaire	0.03%	3333	451		143
Jason Scrivener	0.77%	130	111		16
Jayden Schaper	1.47%	68	46		72
Jeff Winther	0.76%	132	111		5
Jens Dantorp	0.54%	185	126		30
Jeong Weon Ko	0.31%	323	226		99
Joakim Lagergren	0.86%	116	81		99
Joe Dean	0.69%	145	126		72
Joel Girrbach	0.51%	196	151		99
Jonathan Broomhead	0.46%	217	161		50
Joost Luiten	0.95%	105	101		30
Jordan Gumberg	0.37%	270	151		143
Jorge Campillo	0.97%	103	76		5
Jose Luis Ballester	1.45%	69	46		72
Joshua Berry	0.22%	455	251		118
Julien Guerrier	1.05%	95	76		50
Kazuma Kobori	1.06%	94	71		50
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.89%	112	81		30
Kota Kaneko	1.09%	92	81		30
Kristof Ulenaers	0.20%	500	201		72
Lars Buijs	0.02%	5000	451		149
Lev Grinberg	0.20%	500	201		30
Liam Bentein	0.02%	5000	451		152
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.67%	149	126		132
M.J. Daffue	0.73%	137	111		16
Manuel Elvira	0.83%	120	101		16
Marcel Schneider	0.93%	108	101		72
Marcel Siem	0.28%	357	176		30
Marcus Armitage	0.84%	119	81		30
Marcus Helligkilde	0.21%	476	226		72
Marcus Kinhult	0.57%	175	126		5
Martin Couvra	1.14%	88	67		5
Matteo Manassero	0.99%	101	91		50
Matthew Baldwin	0.48%	208	141		30
Matthew Jordan	1.25%	80	56		132
Matthis Besard	0.31%	323	226		118
Maximilian Kieffer	0.43%	233	226		72
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.42%	238	151		132
Michael Hollick	0.44%	227	161		72
Mikael Lindberg	1.34%	75	51		5
Mike Toorop	0.16%	625	351		132
Nacho Elvira	1.16%	86	76		118
Nathan Cossement	0.08%	1250	451		143
Nathan Kimsey	0.97%	103	61		16
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.49%	204	161		30
Nicolas Colsaerts	0.40%	250	176		118
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.77%	130	101		50
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.88%	114	91		132
Oliver Lindell	1.53%	65	51		50
Pablo Larrazabal	0.29%	345	226		99
Paul Waring	0.91%	110	81		5
Quentin Debove	0.23%	435	226		72
Quim Vidal	0.42%	238	176		30
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.96%	104	81		72
Renato Paratore	0.31%	323	201		50
Ricardo Gouveia	0.69%	145	101		30
Richard Mansell	0.83%	120	81		149
Richard Sterne	0.42%	238	176		2
Richie Ramsay	1.04%	96	101	0.10%	30	-0.1	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rikuya Hoshino	0.62%	161	126		16
Robin Williams	0.37%	270	251		50
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.47%	213	151		30
Romain Langasque	0.80%	125	91		16
Ross Fisher	0.51%	196	201		72
Ryan Peake	0.22%	455	351		143
Ryggs Johnston	0.21%	476	351		152
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.63%	159	126		30
Sam Bairstow	0.92%	109	81		132
Scott Jamieson	0.38%	263	161		16
Sean Crocker	0.67%	149	126		99
Sebastian Garcia	0.50%	200	151		30
Shubhankar Sharma	0.43%	233	161		72
Simon Forsstrom	0.36%	278	201		50
Stefano Mazzoli	0.49%	204	161		50
Thomas Detry	2.32%	43	31		30
Thriston Lawrence	1.16%	86	67		5
Tobias Jonsson	0.55%	182	126		99
Todd Clements	0.89%	112	91		72
Tom Vaillant	0.87%	115	91		4
Ugo Coussaud	1.31%	76	56		99
Victor Perez	1.36%	74	46		30
Wenyi Ding	0.92%	109	81		50
Yanhan Zhou	0.42%	238	126		50
Yannik Paul	0.47%	213	226		72
Yente Van Doren	0.13%	769	401		149
Yurav Premlall	0.61%	164	76		16
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.56%	179	126		72
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.46%	217	161		72
Zander Lombard	0.53%	189	126		1

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Calum Hill	2.40%	42	61	0.80%	59	-2	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Richie Ramsay	1.12%	89	126	0.30%	93	-2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jeff Winther	0.76%	132	176	0.20%	17	-2	Betfred: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Richie Ramsay	1.04%	96	101	0.10%	30	-3	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.