Simulation Results: Scottish Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	1.33%	75	76		103
Adam Scott	1.05%	95	81		66
Adrian Meronk	0.09%	1111	751		85
Adrian Otaegui	0.08%	1250	1251		139
Adrien Saddier	0.21%	476	601		61
Aldrich Potgieter	0.21%	476	151		85
Alejandro Del Rey	0.27%	370	301		17
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.88%	114	67		103
Alex Noren	1.24%	81	126	0.40%	127	-0.4	888sport: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alex Smalley	0.57%	175	176		85
Andrew Novak	0.42%	238	176		61
Andrew Putnam	0.40%	250	451	0.20%	52	-0.2	Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andy Sullivan	0.29%	345	501	0.10%	30	-0.1	Betfred: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Angel Ayora	0.77%	130	126		85
Angel Hidalgo	0.08%	1250	1251		103
Antoine Rozner	0.32%	313	401	0.10%	72	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashun Wu	0.15%	667	2001	0.10%	127	-0.1	Star Sports: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Smotherman	0.25%	400	351		139
Baekjun Kim	0.01%	10000	2501		153
Bernd Wiesberger	0.39%	256	201		118
Billy Horschel	0.27%	370	501	0.10%	103	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandt Snedeker	0.26%	385	651	0.10%	133	-0.1	Unibet: 650/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Campbell	0.06%	1667	2001		139
Brian Harman	0.82%	122	126		36
Brooks Koepka	0.46%	217	81		85
Bud Cauley	0.70%	143	111		153
Calum Hill	0.40%	250	201		44
Cam Davis	0.04%	2500	1501		21
Casey Jarvis	0.24%	417	251		21
Charley Hoffman	0.01%	10000	1501		133
Chris Gotterup	2.18%	46	31		11
Chris Kirk	0.20%	500	501		61
Connor Syme	0.03%	3333	1501		133
Corey Conners	1.04%	96	141	0.30%	52	-0.3	888sport: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dan Bradbury	0.15%	667	601		72
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.25%	400	401		85
Daniel Hillier	0.55%	182	151		139
Daniel Rodrigues	0.14%	714	2001	0.10%	133	-0.1	Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Willett	0.05%	2000	1501		21
Darius Van Driel	0.12%	833	1501	0.10%	44	-0.1	Star Sports: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Puig	0.70%	143	76		72
David Ravetto	0.14%	714	1001		139
Davis Riley	0.09%	1111	1501		69
Doug Ghim	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	85	-0.1	888sport: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Frittelli	0.12%	833	1001		72
Dylan Naidoo	0.02%	5000	2501		112
Eric Cole	0.73%	137	126		70
Erik Van Rooyen	0.39%	256	401	0.10%	85	-0.1	William Hill: 400/1, 6pl, 1/4
Eugenio Chacarra	0.71%	141	101		52
Ewen Ferguson	0.41%	244	276		72
Francesco Molinari	0.10%	1000	901		17
Freddy Schott	0.12%	833	401		156
Frederic Lacroix	0.20%	500	601		150
Grant Forrest	0.22%	455	351		85
Guido Migliozzi	0.18%	556	1001	0.10%	59	-0.1	Star Sports: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Haotong Li	0.37%	270	201		118
Harris English	1.22%	82	101	0.20%	72	-0.2	Star Sports: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harry Hall	0.66%	152	141		103
Hennie Du Plessis	0.66%	152	176	0.10%	61	-0.1	Spreadex: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
J.J. Spaun	1.03%	97	71		44
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.11%	909	2001	0.10%	59	-0.1	Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jake Knapp	0.87%	115	81		112
Jayden Schaper	0.34%	294	251		72
Jesper Svensson	0.50%	200	176		52
Joakim Lagergren	0.13%	769	501		85
Joe Highsmith	0.04%	2500	2001		85
Johannes Veerman	0.06%	1667	2001		103
John Parry	0.54%	185	276	0.20%	139	-0.2	Star Sports: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Johnny Keefer	0.38%	263	201		3
Jon Rahm	2.98%	34	19		36
Joost Luiten	0.17%	588	1501	0.10%	17	-0.1	Betfred: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Gumberg	0.06%	1667	2501		85
Jordan Smith	0.57%	175	176		21
Julien Guerrier	0.25%	400	601	0.10%	103	-0.1	Star Sports: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Junghwan Lee	0.04%	2500	2501		118
Justin Thomas	1.48%	68	46		50
Karl Vilips	0.18%	556	376		30
Keita Nakajima	0.43%	233	351	0.10%	3	3.45	QuinnBet: 350/1, 7pl, 1/5
Kevin Roy	0.14%	714	751		11
Kevin Yu	0.40%	250	251		133
Kota Kaneko	0.41%	244	701	0.30%	139	-0.3	Unibet: 700/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kristoffer Reitan	1.18%	85	61		118
Kurt Kitayama	1.12%	89	56		44
Laurie Canter	0.22%	455	451		50
Ludvig Aberg	3.03%	33	26		72
Mac Meissner	0.59%	169	176		30
Marcel Siem	0.04%	2500	2501		150
Marco Penge	0.70%	143	67		72
Marcus Armitage	0.32%	313	301		26
Mark Hubbard	0.16%	625	751		127
Martin Couvra	0.16%	625	551		147
Matt Fitzpatrick	4.08%	25	21		3
Matt Mccarty	0.45%	222	201		72
Matt Wallace	0.89%	112	111		112
Matteo Manassero	0.17%	588	2001	0.10%	103	-0.1	Star Sports: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthieu Pavon	0.34%	294	501	0.10%	139	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matti Schmid	0.45%	222	251	0.10%	21	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 10pl, 1/5
Max Greyserman	0.44%	227	151		36
Max Mcgreevy	0.40%	250	351	0.10%	85	-0.1	888sport: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Brennan	0.37%	270	101		52
Michael Kim	0.59%	169	251	0.20%	85	-0.2	888sport: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.59%	169	176		7
Mikael Lindberg	0.23%	435	276		44
Min Woo Lee	0.77%	130	56		2
Nacho Elvira	0.18%	556	1001	0.10%	68	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Taylor	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	26	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nico Echavarria	0.37%	270	351	0.10%	36	-0.1	BetVictor: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.20%	83	51		26
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.12%	833	2001	0.10%	52	-0.1	Betfred: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.27%	370	401		85
Ockie Strydom	0.01%	10000	5001		112
Oliver Lindell	0.84%	119	201	0.30%	36	-0.3	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pablo Larrazabal	0.02%	5000	2001		118
Padraig Harrington	0.17%	588	651		127
Patrick Cantlay	1.62%	62	61		72
Patrick Reed	0.84%	119	76		13
Paul Waring	0.21%	476	401		103
Pierceson Coody	0.55%	182	141		118
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.46%	217	151		36
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.50%	200	201		36
Richard Mansell	0.11%	909	551		112
Richard Sterne	0.20%	500	1001	0.10%	150	-0.1	William Hill: 1000/1, 6pl, 1/4
Ricky Castillo	0.34%	294	301		44
Rikuya Hoshino	0.10%	1000	1251		118
Robert Macintyre	2.05%	49	36		3
Rory Mcilroy	3.99%	25	12		7
Ryan Fox	0.60%	167	126		30
Ryan Gerard	0.54%	185	141		26
Ryggs Johnston	0.02%	5000	2501		112
Sahith Theegala	0.68%	147	126		66
Sam Stevens	0.34%	294	201		118
Scott Jamieson	0.07%	1429	1251		71
Scottie Scheffler	7.56%	13	7.5		85
Sepp Straka	0.63%	159	161		72
Seungbin Choi	0.04%	2500	5001		127
Shane Lowry	1.68%	60	71	0.30%	85	-0.3	Spreadex: 50/1, 10pl, 1/5
Shaun Norris	0.15%	667	751		36
Si Woo Kim	1.39%	72	76	0.10%	9	-0.1	Star Sports: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.28%	357	251		52
Sungjae Im	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	133	-0.1	888sport: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taehoon Ok	0.03%	3333	2001		155
Taylor Moore	0.24%	417	251		147
Thorbjorn Olesen	0.47%	213	251	0.10%	85	-0.1	William Hill: 250/1, 6pl, 1/4
Thriston Lawrence	0.17%	588	701		127
Tom Kim	1.21%	83	76		1
Tom Mckibbin	0.53%	189	151		30
Tommy Fleetwood	3.85%	26	26		13
Tyrrell Hatton	1.86%	54	34		17
Victor Perez	0.84%	119	126		9
Viktor Hovland	2.24%	45	41		13
William Mouw	0.38%	263			10
Wyndham Clark	2.65%	38	34		13
Xander Schauffele	2.84%	35	21		118
Yurav Premlall	0.05%	2000	2001		147
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.05%	2000	2001		61
Zach Bauchou	0.30%	333	401	0.10%	72	-0.1	888sport: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Rai	1.41%	71	71		99
Adam Scott	1.13%	88	71		53
Adrian Meronk	0.32%	313	201		53
Adrian Otaegui	0.19%	526	301		155
Adrien Saddier	0.44%	227	201		124
Aldrich Potgieter	0.51%	196	101		72
Alejandro Del Rey	0.34%	294	151		124
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.71%	141	61		99
Alex Noren	1.28%	78	91	0.20%	53	-0.2	888sport: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alex Smalley	0.87%	115	91		124
Andrew Novak	0.47%	213	126		6
Andrew Putnam	0.44%	227	191		99
Andy Sullivan	0.32%	313	176		27
Angel Ayora	0.96%	104	91		6
Angel Hidalgo	0.30%	333	251		27
Antoine Rozner	0.38%	263	181		53
Ashun Wu	0.39%	256	276		137
Austin Eckroat	0.54%	185	161		72
Austin Smotherman	0.35%	286	176		145
Baekjun Kim	0.06%	1667	501		149
Bernd Wiesberger	0.66%	152	126		1
Billy Horschel	0.38%	263	191		145
Brandt Snedeker	0.51%	196	201		53
Brian Campbell	0.30%	333	351		124
Brian Harman	0.67%	149	101		72
Brooks Koepka	0.74%	135	76		6
Bud Cauley	1.01%	99	91		137
Calum Hill	0.45%	222	126		13
Cam Davis	0.13%	769	351		72
Casey Jarvis	0.56%	179	151		27
Charley Hoffman	0.12%	833	351		145
Chris Gotterup	1.75%	57	46		27
Chris Kirk	0.30%	333	201		72
Connor Syme	0.13%	769	351		149
Corey Conners	0.79%	127	91		13
Dan Bradbury	0.30%	333	191		99
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.34%	294	151		137
Daniel Hillier	0.85%	118	101		149
Daniel Rodrigues	0.26%	385	301		124
Danny Willett	0.15%	667	251		13
Darius Van Driel	0.23%	435	301		72
David Puig	0.64%	156	67		149
David Ravetto	0.38%	263	251		137
Davis Riley	0.18%	556	276		27
Doug Ghim	0.61%	164	101		99
Dylan Frittelli	0.36%	278	201		72
Dylan Naidoo	0.08%	1250	501		72
Eric Cole	0.60%	167	91		99
Erik Van Rooyen	0.40%	250	151		99
Eugenio Chacarra	0.97%	103	81		72
Ewen Ferguson	0.70%	143	151		72
Francesco Molinari	0.34%	294	251		27
Freddy Schott	0.24%	417	151		156
Frederic Lacroix	0.44%	227	201		137
Grant Forrest	0.54%	185	151		53
Guido Migliozzi	0.27%	370	226		27
Haotong Li	0.60%	167	126		27
Harris English	0.88%	114	91		99
Harry Hall	0.58%	172	101		99
Hennie Du Plessis	0.59%	169	126		72
J.J. Spaun	1.18%	85	71		27
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.20%	500	301		53
Jake Knapp	0.69%	145	71		124
Jayden Schaper	0.41%	244	126		27
Jesper Svensson	0.77%	130	126		72
Joakim Lagergren	0.26%	385	201		72
Joe Highsmith	0.14%	714	351		99
Johannes Veerman	0.18%	556	301		137
John Parry	0.52%	192	126		149
Johnny Keefer	0.67%	149	126		27
Jon Rahm	1.44%	69	34		137
Joost Luiten	0.42%	238	276	0.10%	13	-0.1	Unibet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Gumberg	0.14%	714	401		124
Jordan Smith	0.52%	192	141		27
Julien Guerrier	0.35%	286	201		99
Junghwan Lee	0.28%	357	401		124
Justin Thomas	0.96%	104	51		53
Karl Vilips	0.25%	400	201		72
Keita Nakajima	0.70%	143	176	0.10%	13	-0.1	888sport: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kevin Roy	0.26%	385	201		13
Kevin Yu	0.43%	233	151		149
Kota Kaneko	0.46%	217	201		99
Kristoffer Reitan	1.26%	79	61		99
Kurt Kitayama	1.16%	86	56		6
Laurie Canter	0.51%	196	151		53
Ludvig Aberg	1.44%	69	41		27
Mac Meissner	0.85%	118	111		99
Marcel Siem	0.29%	345	351		53
Marco Penge	0.98%	102	56		72
Marcus Armitage	0.62%	161	151		27
Mark Hubbard	0.25%	400	201		72
Martin Couvra	0.46%	217	201		137
Matt Fitzpatrick	1.77%	56	36		13
Matt Mccarty	0.67%	149	126		13
Matt Wallace	1.02%	98	81		72
Matteo Manassero	0.27%	370	301		124
Matthieu Pavon	0.44%	227	191		72
Matti Schmid	0.80%	125	151	0.10%	27	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Max Greyserman	0.46%	217	111		53
Max Mcgreevy	0.63%	159	151		53
Michael Brennan	0.45%	222	81		13
Michael Kim	0.82%	122	111		27
Michael Thorbjornsen	0.85%	118	91		6
Mikael Lindberg	0.53%	189	151		53
Min Woo Lee	0.97%	103	51		6
Nacho Elvira	0.30%	333	201		53
Nick Taylor	0.55%	182	111		72
Nico Echavarria	0.44%	227	151		27
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.27%	79	61		27
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.23%	435	301		53
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.37%	270	151		99
Ockie Strydom	0.08%	1250	501		53
Oliver Lindell	1.07%	93	126	0.30%	6	-0.3	QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pablo Larrazabal	0.15%	667	401		99
Padraig Harrington	0.41%	244	191		145
Patrick Cantlay	1.51%	66	51		1
Patrick Reed	0.67%	149	67		27
Paul Waring	0.31%	323	176		99
Pierceson Coody	0.79%	127	101		99
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.49%	204	111		1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	0.77%	130	111		27
Richard Mansell	0.26%	385	201		72
Richard Sterne	0.27%	370	276		124
Ricky Castillo	0.41%	244	151		72
Rikuya Hoshino	0.22%	455	301		99
Robert Macintyre	1.72%	58	51		13
Rory Mcilroy	2.60%	38	26		1
Ryan Fox	0.88%	114	91		99
Ryan Gerard	0.56%	179	101		27
Ryggs Johnston	0.15%	667	401		124
Sahith Theegala	0.54%	185	91		72
Sam Stevens	0.44%	227	126		27
Scott Jamieson	0.24%	417	251		53
Scottie Scheffler	2.72%	37	21		27
Sepp Straka	0.54%	185	111		72
Seungbin Choi	0.25%	400	501	0.10%	99	-0.1	William Hill: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shane Lowry	1.48%	68	67		99
Shaun Norris	0.42%	238	201		27
Si Woo Kim	0.87%	115	67		72
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	0.54%	185	126		27
Sungjae Im	0.56%	179	126		124
Taehoon Ok	0.10%	1000	401		124
Taylor Moore	0.61%	164	141		72
Thorbjorn Olesen	0.76%	132	151	0.10%	72	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thriston Lawrence	0.45%	222	201		99
Tom Kim	1.33%	75	67		1
Tom Mckibbin	0.47%	213	91		13
Tommy Fleetwood	1.67%	60	41		13
Tyrrell Hatton	1.59%	63	46		72
Victor Perez	1.04%	96	91		53
Viktor Hovland	1.84%	54	46		27
Wyndham Clark	2.06%	49	41		13
Xander Schauffele	2.07%	48	36		53
Yurav Premlall	0.25%	400	351		99
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.21%	476	351		99
Zach Bauchou	0.39%	256	176		13

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Alex Noren	1.24%	81	126	0.40%	127	-2	888sport: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Shane Lowry	1.68%	60	71	0.30%	85	-2	Spreadex: 50/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Corey Conners	1.04%	96	141	0.30%	52	-2	888sport: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Oliver Lindell	1.07%	93	126	0.30%	6	-1	QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Alex Noren	1.28%	78	91	0.20%	53	-1	888sport: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Matti Schmid	0.80%	125	151	0.10%	27	-1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Thorbjorn Olesen	0.76%	132	151	0.10%	72	-1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Keita Nakajima	0.70%	143	176	0.10%	13	-1	888sport: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Joost Luiten	0.42%	238	276	0.10%	13	-1	Unibet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.