Simulation Results: Scottish Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.14% 714 1001 124
Aaron Rai 1.58% 63 61 47
Adam Scott 2.25% 44 56 0.50% 17 -0.5 Boyle Sports: 45/1, 10pl, 1/5
Adrian Otaegui 0.09% 1111 1001 153
Adrien Saddier 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 130 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 10pl, 1/5
Aldrich Potgieter 0.30% 333 111 100
Alejandro Del Rey 0.16% 625 401 60
Alejandro Tosti 0.18% 556 401 100
Alex Fitzpatrick 0.20% 500 351 100
Alex Noren 1.42% 70 101 0.40% 91 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Alex Smalley 0.72% 139 201 0.20% 34 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andrew Novak 0.37% 270 176 13
Andrew Putnam 0.75% 133 251 0.40% 81 -0.4 William Hill: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andy Sullivan 0.31% 323 401 0.10% 17 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 300/1, 10pl, 1/5
Angel Hidalgo 0.05% 2000 1501 145
Antoine Rozner 0.29% 345 301 22
Ashun Wu 0.16% 625 1001 0.10% 130 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bernd Wiesberger 0.09% 1111 501 113
Brandon Stone 0.23% 435 276 91
Brandt Snedeker 0.34% 294 751 0.20% 113 -0.2 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Campbell 0.30% 333 351 130
Brian Harman 0.84% 119 101 50
Bud Cauley 0.68% 147 176 0.10% 55 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Byeong Hun An 1.00% 100 91 79
Calum Hill 0.17% 588 351 100
Chris Gotterup 0.35% 286 91 1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.73% 137 176 0.20% 13 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Collin Morikawa 2.18% 46 26 124
Connor Syme 0.23% 435 351 75
Corey Conners 2.20% 45 61 0.60% 47 -0.6 10Bet: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dale Whitnell 0.01% 10000 2501 65
Dan Bradbury 0.14% 714 601 142
Daniel Berger 0.70% 143 126 55
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.46% 217 151 60
Daniel Hillier 0.23% 435 351 100
Danny Walker 0.09% 1111 751 113
Danny Willett 0.12% 833 751 130
Darius Van Driel 0.11% 909 1001 142
David Ford 0.03% 3333 751 113
David Ravetto 0.14% 714 1001 81
Davis Riley 0.16% 625 351 100
Denny Mccarthy 0.70% 143 126 113
Dylan Frittelli 0.09% 1111 1001 113
Dylan Naidoo 0.03% 3333 2501 130
Elvis Smylie 0.06% 1667 751 34
Erik Van Rooyen 0.28% 357 176 91
Eugenio Chacarra 0.20% 500 201 100
Ewen Ferguson 0.39% 256 176 81
Francesco Laporta 0.60% 167 226 0.20% 50 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 175/1, 10pl, 1/5
Francesco Molinari 0.17% 588 501 91
Frederic Lacroix 0.24% 417 501 130
Gary Woodland 0.51% 196 201 60
Grant Forrest 0.17% 588 401 22
Guido Migliozzi 0.09% 1111 1001 130
Haotong Li 0.40% 250 126 130
Harris English 1.09% 92 71 22
Harry Hall 1.25% 80 61 17
Henrik Norlander 0.40% 250 401 0.20% 78 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 300/1, 10pl, 1/5
Hongtaek Kim 0.01% 10000 2501 145
Isaiah Salinda 0.17% 588 401 153
J.J. Spaun 1.38% 72 71 100
Jacob Bridgeman 0.60% 167 176 75
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.22% 455 501 65
Jake Knapp 0.71% 141 126 22
Jesper Svensson 0.62% 161 151 43
Jhonattan Vegas 0.48% 208 251 0.10% 50 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 175/1, 10pl, 1/5
Joe Dean 0.10% 1000 751 100
Joe Highsmith 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 145 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 300/1, 10pl, 1/5
Joel Dahmen 0.19% 526 501 113
Johannes Veerman 0.23% 435 401 145
John Parry 0.24% 417 401 55
Jordan Gumberg 0.03% 3333 2501 91
Jordan Smith 0.88% 114 111 22
Jorge Campillo 0.38% 263 451 0.20% 22 -0.2 QuinnBet: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Guerrier 0.18% 556 401 81
Junghwan Lee 0.06% 1667 2501 113
Justin Rose 0.45% 222 111 6
Justin Thomas 1.54% 65 41 22
Karl Vilips 0.12% 833 401 130
Keita Nakajima 0.24% 417 401 55
Keith Mitchell 0.40% 250 151 50
Kevin Yu 0.44% 227 111 34
Kristoffer Reitan 0.42% 238 176 13
Laurie Canter 0.46% 217 151 34
Lee Hodges 0.95% 105 151 0.30% 124 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 110/1, 10pl, 1/5
Ludvig Aberg 1.29% 78 31 8
Luke Clanton 0.69% 145 151 65
Luke Donald 0.02% 5000 2501 91
Mackenzie Hughes 0.50% 200 201 91
Marcel Schneider 0.33% 303 351 113
Marcel Siem 0.09% 1111 751 34
Marco Penge 0.33% 303 111 2
Martin Couvra 0.34% 294 251 73
Matt Fitzpatrick 1.92% 52 41 4
Matt Mccarty 0.39% 256 351 0.10% 22 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Wallace 0.83% 120 101 50
Matteo Manassero 0.60% 167 151 124
Matthew Jordan 0.42% 238 201 100
Matthieu Pavon 0.16% 625 401 81
Matti Schmid 0.71% 141 176 0.10% 17 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Maverick Mcnealy 1.34% 75 67 22
Max Greyserman 1.21% 83 81 81
Max Mcgreevy 0.28% 357 501 0.10% 91 -0.1 Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Kim 0.64% 156 176 0.10% 34 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nacho Elvira 0.11% 909 1001 145
Nick Taylor 1.13% 88 111 0.20% 22 -0.2 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nico Echavarria 0.28% 357 226 22
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.57% 175 91 4
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.17% 588 501 130
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.56% 179 126 91
Ockie Strydom 0.00% 10000 5001 145
Pablo Larrazabal 0.05% 2000 1501 145
Padraig Harrington 0.19% 526 351 71
Patrick Rodgers 0.34% 294 351 0.10% 113 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Paul Waring 0.06% 1667 751 79
Rasmus Hojgaard 0.77% 130 61 142
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 0.99% 101 81 81
Richard Mansell 0.30% 333 301 22
Richie Ramsay 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 100 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 350/1, 10pl, 1/5
Rikuya Hoshino 0.33% 303 451 0.10% QuinnBet: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Macintyre 3.26% 31 26 65
Romain Langasque 0.26% 385 276 55
Rory Mcilroy 4.11% 24 12 2
Ryan Fox 1.27% 79 61 65
Ryan Gerard 0.48% 208 151 74
Ryggs Johnston 0.02% 5000 1501 130
Ryo Hisatsune 0.41% 244 301 0.10% 145 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Bairstow 0.15% 667 351 65
Sam Burns 2.23% 45 41 47
Sam Stevens 0.60% 167 126 75
Sami Valimaki 0.38% 263 201 60
Scottie Scheffler 9.21% 11 7 8
Sean Crocker 0.17% 588 601 124
Sebastian Soderberg 0.16% 625 451 34
Sepp Straka 1.11% 90 56 7
Shaun Norris 0.27% 370 401 130
Si Woo Kim 1.57% 64 91 0.50% 34 -0.5 Ladbrokes: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
Simon Forsstrom 0.04% 2500 2501 100
Sungjae Im 0.88% 114 111 81
Taylor Moore 0.35% 286 251 124
Taylor Pendrith 0.85% 118 101 13
Thomas Detry 0.95% 105 81 71
Thorbjorn Olesen 0.81% 123 101 60
Thriston Lawrence 0.68% 147 111 81
Todd Clements 0.12% 833 601 81
Tom Hoge 0.40% 250 251 100
Tom Kim 0.97% 103 101 17
Tommy Fleetwood 5.07% 20 23 0.80% 34 -0.8 Ladbrokes: 18/1, 10pl, 1/5
Ugo Coussaud 0.17% 588 501 43
Victor Perez 0.91% 110 126 0.10% 43 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 90/1, 10pl, 1/5
Viktor Hovland 1.59% 63 34 11
Wooyoung Cho 0.04% 2500 2501 113
Wyndham Clark 0.79% 127 126 11
Xander Schauffele 2.17% 46 26 8
Yannik Paul 0.10% 1000 501 43
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.00% 10000 751 155

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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