Simulation Results: Ras al Khaimah Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.40% 250 401 0.20% 74 -0.2 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adrian Otaegui 1.23% 81 101 0.20% 67 -0.2 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 0.59% 169 76 88
Adrien Saddier 0.73% 137 126 13
Ahmad Skaik 0.00% 10000 5001 123
Alejandro Del Rey 0.27% 370 111 1
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.64% 61 51 74
Alexander Bjork 1.18% 85 91 0.10% 8 -0.1 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alexander Knappe 0.10% 1000
Alexander Levy 0.05% 2000 751 98
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.42% 238 301 0.10% 98 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrea Pavan 0.50% 200 176 50
Andreas Halvorsen 0.22% 455 401 57
Andrew Wilson 0.26% 385 301 22
Andy Sullivan 1.02% 98 91 27
Angel Ayora 0.70% 143 41 27
Angel Hidalgo 0.55% 182 151 110
Benjamin Hebert 0.22% 455 401 98
Bernd Wiesberger 1.13% 88 111 0.20% 74 -0.2 Betway: 100/1, 7pl, 1/5
Bjorn Akesson 0.06% 1667 751 132
Brandon Robinson Thompson 0.41% 244 301 0.10% 88 -0.1 Skybet: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Stone 1.44% 69 41 61
Brandon Wu 0.76% 132 151 0.10% 41 -0.1 Skybet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Callum Shinkwin 0.76% 132 101 88
Callum Tarren 0.25% 400 301 88
Calum Hill 0.96% 104 81 98
Casey Jarvis 0.36% 278 126 73
Connor Syme 1.20% 83 141 0.50% 22 -0.5 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Conor Purcell 0.09% 1111 501 123
Dale Whitnell 0.21% 476 601 61
Dan Bradbury 0.70% 143 126 74
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.44% 227 201 27
Daniel Gavins 0.09% 1111 2501 0.10% 50 -0.1 Betfred: 2500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Hillier 1.92% 52 34 130
Darius Van Driel 0.59% 169 301 0.30% 13 -0.3 Skybet: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Darren Fichardt 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 98 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Micheluzzi 0.93% 108 81 36
David Puig 1.41% 71 29 3
David Ravetto 0.41% 244 201 13
Deon Germishuys 0.18% 556 601 44
Dylan Frittelli 0.66% 152 176 0.10% 50 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Naidoo 0.13% 769 401 41
Elvis Smylie 0.32% 313 91 125
Ewen Ferguson 1.95% 51 56 0.20% 74 -0.2 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.51% 196 176 70
Francesco Laporta 1.06% 94 81 88
Freddy Schott 0.63% 159 126 98
Frederic Lacroix 1.07% 93 71 22
Gavin Green 0.58% 172 151 98
George Coetzee 0.05% 2000 1001 88
Grant Forrest 0.28% 357 201 44
Guido Migliozzi 1.75% 57 41 74
Hamish Brown 0.17% 588 126 8
Haotong Li 0.72% 139 67 22
Ivan Cantero 0.45% 222 111 5
Jack Senior 0.26% 385 401 27
Jannik De Bruyn 0.23% 435 351 74
Jason Scrivener 0.84% 119 151 0.20% 4 2.9 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jayden Schaper 0.85% 118 91 61
Jeff Winther 0.54% 185 176 67
Jens Dantorp 0.33% 303 401 0.10% 114 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeong Weon Ko 0.28% 357 301 88
Jimmy Walker 0.21% 476 401 114
Joakim Lagergren 0.13% 769 401 125
Joe Dean 0.64% 156 161 5
Joel Girrbach 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 57 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 10pl, 1/5
Joel Moscatel 0.07% 1429 751 16
Johannes Veerman 2.33% 43 26 16
John Parry 1.04% 96 111 0.10% 114 -0.1 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jonathan Selvaraj 0.00% 10000 4001 132
Joost Luiten 1.14% 88 81 36
Jordan Gumberg 0.31% 323 401 0.10% 98 -0.1 BetVictor: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Smith 2.85% 35 31 27
Jorge Campillo 1.22% 82 81 74
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.05% 2000 601 70
Julien Guerrier 2.67% 37 36 50
Kazuma Kobori 0.27% 370 201 114
Keita Nakajima 2.20% 45 21 74
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 8 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kristoffer Reitan 0.12% 833 351 36
Louis De Jager 0.44% 227 201 61
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.13% 769 401 67
Manuel Elvira 0.16% 625 401 27
Marcel Schneider 0.50% 200 176 74
Marcel Siem 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 114 -0.1 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcus Armitage 0.62% 161 201 0.10% 2 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 175/1, 10pl, 1/5
Marcus Kinhult 0.69% 145 151 44
Martin Couvra 0.16% 625 251 125
Martin Trainer 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 135 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Baldwin 0.39% 256 401 0.10% 134 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Jordan 2.45% 41 36 110
Matthias Schwab 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 36 -0.1 Skybet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maximilian Kieffer 0.75% 133 126 16
Mikael Lindberg 0.10% 1000 501 74
Mike Lorenzo-Vera 0.53% 189 176 57
Minkyu Kim 0.19% 526 401 125
Nacho Elvira 0.71% 141 201 0.20% 98 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 150/1, 10pl, 1/5
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.42% 238 251 44
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.18% 556 401 74
Oliver Lindell 0.34% 294 101 44
Pablo Larrazabal 0.19% 526 351 57
Padraig Harrington 0.44% 227 201 50
Patrick Reed 3.89% 26 19 8
Paul Waring 0.91% 110 67 137
Pierre Pineau 0.06% 1667 501 131
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.10% 1000 601 50
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 2.72% 37 31 114
Ricardo Gouveia 0.56% 179 201 0.10% 36 -0.1 Skybet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Richard Mansell 1.15% 87 67 50
Richard Sterne 0.48% 208 401 0.20% 74 -0.2 Paddy Power: 400/1, 7pl, 1/5
Richie Ramsay 0.78% 128 251 0.40% 98 -0.4 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robert Karlsson 0.02% 5000 2501 70
Robin Williams 0.52% 192 151 98
Romain Langasque 1.68% 60 56 88
Ross Fisher 0.31% 323 301 114
Ryan Fox 2.82% 35 21 27
Ryan Van Velzen 0.16% 625 751 61
Ryggs Johnston 0.19% 526 161
Sam Bairstow 0.79% 127 111 16
Sam Mullane 0.00% 10000 4001 136
Scott Jamieson 0.92% 109 176 0.40% 8 -0.4 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sean Crocker 0.78% 128 111 110
Sebastian Soderberg 1.30% 77 61 5
Shaun Norris 2.06% 49 36 16
Shubhankar Sharma 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 74 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Simon Forsstrom 0.15% 667 751 66
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.16% 625 401 98
Thomas Aiken 0.39% 256 601 0.20% 22 -0.2 Betfred: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Pieters 1.34% 75 36 88
Thorbjorn Olesen 5.00% 20 13 27
Todd Clements 0.79% 127 161 0.20% 125 -0.2 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tom Mckibbin 2.46% 41 23 88
Tom Vaillant 0.62% 161 126 41
Ugo Coussaud 0.73% 137 91 16
Veer Ahlawat 0.07% 1429 1001 27
Yannik Paul 0.66% 152 126 114
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.48% 208 201 110
Zihao Jin 0.12% 833 201 114

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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