Simulation Results: Qatar Masters

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.33%	303	226		81
Adam Blomme	0.02%	5000	2501		36
Adri Arnaus	0.10%	1000	301		48
Adrian Otaegui	0.42%	238	226		52
Albin Bergstrom	0.09%	1111	451		81
Alejandro Del Rey	1.01%	99	41		89
Alex Fitzpatrick	1.56%	64	46		68
Ali Al-Shahrani	0.00%	10000	5001		144
Andrea Pavan	1.49%	67	61		68
Andreas Halvorsen	0.72%	139	111		116
Andres Gallegos	0.00%	10000	2001		128
Andrew Charles Ikstrums	0.00%	10000	5001		141
Andy Sullivan	1.09%	92	76		36
Angel Ayora	3.38%	30	17		5
Angel Hidalgo	0.37%	270	226		89
Anthony Quayle	0.29%	345	176		68
Antoine Rozner	2.01%	50	61	0.40%	9	-0.4	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ashun Wu	0.57%	175	251	0.20%	120	-0.2	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.14%	714	501		24
Bernd Wiesberger	0.31%	323	176		62
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.21%	83	101	0.20%	68	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Stone	0.97%	103	86		36
Calum Hill	1.11%	90	67		2
Cameron Adam	0.10%	1000	501		36
Casey Jarvis	0.88%	114	61		68
Chris Wood	0.27%	370	351		128
Clement Charmasson	0.08%	1250	501		57
Connor Mckinney	0.04%	2500	1001		81
Connor Syme	0.37%	270	161		103
Dan Bradbury	1.00%	100	71		5
Daniel Hillier	4.11%	24	15		20
Daniel Rodrigues	0.36%	278	251		65
Daniel Van Tonder	0.29%	345	176		52
Daniel Young	0.34%	294	201		68
Daniil Sokolov	0.00%	10000	5001		135
Darren Fichardt	0.18%	556	601		120
David Law	0.20%	500	276		81
David Micheluzzi	0.16%	625	501		9
David Ravetto	0.36%	278	176		89
Davis Bryant	0.29%	345	251		141
Dominic Mcglinchey	0.00%	10000	5001		89
Dylan Frittelli	0.33%	303	201		20
Dylan Naidoo	0.09%	1111	1501		103
Eddie Pepperell	0.38%	263	176		103
Euan Walker	0.05%	2000	1001		135
Eugenio Chacarra	1.56%	64	51		81
Ewen Ferguson	1.91%	52	56	0.10%	24	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Felix Mory	0.15%	667	451		116
Filippo Celli	0.31%	323	251		103
Francesco Laporta	1.35%	74	67		52
Fred Biondi	0.13%	769	451		89
Frederic Lacroix	0.63%	159	91		24
Grant Forrest	1.83%	55	41		15
Gregorio De Leo	0.27%	370	176		9
Guido Migliozzi	0.36%	278	176		36
Hennie Du Plessis	1.89%	53	46		15
Hugo Townsend	0.28%	357	176		66
Hunter Logan	0.03%	3333	1001		128
Ivan Cantero	0.41%	244	176		116
J.C. Ritchie	0.71%	141	61		68
Jack Senior	0.38%	263	251		137
Jack Yule	0.00%	10000	2001		103
Jacob Skov Olesen	0.83%	120	91		3
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.84%	119	111		57
James Morrison	0.23%	435	401		68
Jason Scrivener	0.77%	130	151	0.10%	24	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jayden Schaper	4.67%	21	13		9
Jeff Winther	0.47%	213	276	0.10%	128	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jens Dantorp	0.49%	204	276	0.10%	103	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeong Weon Ko	0.09%	1111	601		89
Jesper Svensson	1.65%	61	36		24
Joakim Lagergren	0.59%	169	101		15
Joe Dean	0.43%	233	251		81
Joel Girrbach	0.72%	139	111		89
Johannes Veerman	0.69%	145	141		3
Jonathan Broomhead	0.26%	385	251		68
Jordan Gumberg	0.15%	667	601		89
Jorge Campillo	2.27%	44	41		81
Joshua Berry	0.21%	476	301		103
Julien Guerrier	2.34%	43	36		36
Junghwan Lee	0.16%	625	351		48
Justin Harding	0.04%	2500	751		128
Kazuma Kobori	0.48%	208	251	0.10%	9	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.43%	233	176		57
Kota Kaneko	0.60%	167	151		15
Luke List	0.34%	294	151		103
Manuel Elvira	0.87%	115	101		89
Marcel Schneider	0.94%	106	91		89
Marcus Armitage	1.60%	63	36		62
Marcus Kinhult	0.23%	435	301		24
Martin Couvra	1.89%	53	46		68
Matt Wallace	2.88%	35	26		20
Matthew Baldwin	0.10%	1000	801		81
Matthew Jordan	0.70%	143	91		32
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.09%	1111	401		120
Michael Hollick	0.43%	233	201		89
Mikael Lindberg	1.18%	85	46		36
Mike Toorop	0.01%	10000	1001		67
Nacho Elvira	1.43%	70	56		14
Nathan Kimsey	0.88%	114	86		24
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.58%	172	131		120
Niklas Lemke	0.78%	128	126		120
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.90%	111	61		36
Ockie Strydom	0.02%	5000	2001		139
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.22%	455	201		48
Oliver Fisher	0.00%	10000	5001		139
Oliver Lindell	3.15%	32	29		5
Pablo Larrazabal	0.23%	435	401		44
Padraig Harrington	0.12%	833	601		34
Patrick Reed	5.85%	17	15		1
Paul Waring	0.20%	500	226		32
Quentin Debove	0.02%	5000	1001		24
Quim Vidal	0.02%	5000	1251		103
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.09%	92	81		34
Reda El Hali	0.00%	10000	4001		143
Renato Paratore	0.21%	476	276		52
Ricardo Gouveia	0.64%	156	151		103
Richard Sterne	0.69%	145	201	0.20%	15	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Richie Ramsay	0.74%	135	226	0.30%	89	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rikuya Hoshino	0.79%	127	91		103
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.15%	667	251		128
Romain Langasque	0.90%	111	126	0.10%	62	-0.1	Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ross Fisher	0.11%	909	1001		89
Ryan Palmer	0.05%	2000	1001		68
Ryan Peake	0.01%	10000	2001		44
Ryggs Johnston	0.10%	1000	601		68
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.19%	526	176		57
Saleh Al Kaabi	0.00%	10000	2501		137
Sam Bairstow	1.25%	80	81		56
Scott Jamieson	0.53%	189	151		89
Sean Crocker	0.83%	120	116		57
Sebastian Garcia	0.16%	625	401		120
Sebastian Soderberg	0.39%	256	226		5
Shubhankar Sharma	0.17%	588	401		116
Stefano Mazzoli	0.36%	278	176		120
Taehoon Ok	0.21%	476	351		44
Tobias Jonsson	0.30%	333	276		48
Todd Clements	0.79%	127	91		20
Tom Vaillant	0.84%	119	101		44
Ugo Coussaud	1.85%	54	41		103
Wenyi Ding	1.55%	65	41		103
Yanhan Zhou	0.14%	714	126		68
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.24%	417	301		120
Zander Lombard	0.47%	213	101		128

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.38%	263	141		100
Adam Blomme	0.21%	476	401		10
Adri Arnaus	0.20%	500	141		28
Adrian Otaegui	0.39%	256	151		47
Albin Bergstrom	0.44%	227	201		85
Alejandro Del Rey	0.66%	152	61		85
Alex Fitzpatrick	1.54%	65	56		118
Ali Al-Shahrani	0.01%	10000	401		144
Andrea Pavan	1.65%	61	67	0.20%	70	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
Andreas Halvorsen	0.57%	175	101		127
Andres Gallegos	0.12%	833			47
Andrew Charles Ikstrums	0.03%	3333	501		138
Andy Sullivan	0.67%	149	81		70
Angel Ayora	1.26%	79	34		3
Angel Hidalgo	0.37%	270	126		70
Anthony Quayle	0.75%	133	111		70
Antoine Rozner	0.95%	105	67		28
Ashun Wu	0.45%	222	126		100
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.49%	204	191		70
Bernd Wiesberger	0.37%	270	111		85
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.73%	137	86		118
Brandon Stone	0.65%	154	86		47
Calum Hill	0.68%	147	67		70
Cameron Adam	0.47%	213	201		28
Casey Jarvis	1.28%	78	67		118
Chris Wood	0.32%	313	161		132
Clement Charmasson	0.45%	222	201		47
Connor Mckinney	0.33%	303	251		100
Connor Syme	0.42%	238	111		127
Dan Bradbury	1.30%	77	81	0.10%	28	-0.1	Skybet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Daniel Hillier	2.64%	38	34		1
Daniel Rodrigues	0.82%	122	126		14
Daniel Van Tonder	0.71%	141	111		14
Daniel Young	0.78%	128	126		100
Daniil Sokolov	0.03%	3333	401		100
Darren Fichardt	0.62%	161	201	0.10%	118	-0.1	William Hill: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
David Law	0.28%	357	151		132
David Micheluzzi	0.26%	385	151		47
David Ravetto	0.39%	256	111		47
Davis Bryant	0.39%	256	126		143
Dominic Mcglinchey	0.06%	1667	501		85
Dylan Frittelli	0.38%	263	126		28
Dylan Naidoo	0.42%	238	301	0.10%	100	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/5
Eddie Pepperell	0.41%	244	126		127
Euan Walker	0.13%	769	251		127
Eugenio Chacarra	0.79%	127	67		100
Ewen Ferguson	0.94%	106	71		14
Felix Mory	0.26%	385	151		100
Filippo Celli	0.74%	135	141		100
Francesco Laporta	0.76%	132	81		14
Fred Biondi	0.23%	435	201		118
Frederic Lacroix	0.52%	192	91		28
Grant Forrest	1.74%	57	51		28
Gregorio De Leo	0.36%	278	111		3
Guido Migliozzi	0.89%	112	101		10
Hennie Du Plessis	0.96%	104	61		70
Hugo Townsend	0.35%	286	111		70
Hunter Logan	0.13%	769	226		100
Ivan Cantero	0.42%	238	141		127
J.C. Ritchie	1.14%	88	71		100
Jack Senior	0.44%	227	151		118
Jack Yule	0.08%	1250	301		118
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.16%	86	81		3
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.59%	169	111		85
James Morrison	0.65%	154	191	0.10%	70	-0.1	Bet365: 190/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jason Scrivener	0.58%	172	126		47
Jayden Schaper	2.90%	34	34		28
Jeff Winther	0.93%	108	126	0.10%	47	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jens Dantorp	0.93%	108	126	0.10%	100	-0.1	William Hill: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jeong Weon Ko	0.46%	217	201		85
Jesper Svensson	1.70%	59	46		14
Joakim Lagergren	0.50%	200	91		8
Joe Dean	0.89%	112	126	0.10%	85	-0.1	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joel Girrbach	0.55%	182	91		70
Johannes Veerman	1.06%	94	111	0.20%	14	-0.2	Star Sports: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jonathan Broomhead	0.69%	145	126		47
Jordan Gumberg	0.59%	169	151		132
Jorge Campillo	1.83%	55	56		47
Joshua Berry	0.66%	152	151		85
Julien Guerrier	1.05%	95	56		28
Junghwan Lee	0.60%	167	176		85
Justin Harding	0.27%	370	201		140
Kazuma Kobori	0.47%	213	126		8
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.92%	109	126	0.10%	14	-0.1	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kota Kaneko	1.00%	100	101		10
Luke List	0.38%	263	126		132
Manuel Elvira	0.64%	156	91		118
Marcel Schneider	0.61%	164	101		85
Marcus Armitage	0.83%	120	51		85
Marcus Kinhult	0.64%	156	151		3
Martin Couvra	1.77%	56	61	0.10%	14	-0.1	BetMGM: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Wallace	1.15%	87	41		14
Matthew Baldwin	0.21%	476	201		85
Matthew Jordan	1.14%	88	86		14
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.42%	238	151		85
Michael Hollick	0.46%	217	111		70
Mikael Lindberg	0.68%	147	61		47
Mike Toorop	0.18%	556	251		47
Nacho Elvira	1.62%	62	67	0.10%	100	-0.1	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nathan Kimsey	1.30%	77	81	0.10%	28	-0.1	Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	1.08%	93	101	0.10%	47	-0.1	William Hill: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Niklas Lemke	0.66%	152	101		47
Niklas Norgaard Moller	1.26%	79	67		47
Ockie Strydom	0.24%	417	301		138
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.29%	345	101		100
Oliver Fisher	0.03%	3333	401		140
Oliver Lindell	2.28%	44	41		3
Pablo Larrazabal	0.69%	145	161	0.10%	47	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/5
Padraig Harrington	0.23%	435	201		47
Patrick Reed	3.18%	31	29		1
Paul Waring	0.30%	333	141		14
Quentin Debove	0.26%	385	251		28
Quim Vidal	0.13%	769	276		28
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.37%	73	81	0.10%	28	-0.1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Reda El Hali	0.11%	909	426		140
Renato Paratore	0.31%	323	126		47
Ricardo Gouveia	0.97%	103	101		47
Richard Sterne	0.50%	200	126		10
Richie Ramsay	1.15%	87	111	0.30%	118	-0.3	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Rikuya Hoshino	0.59%	169	101		47
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.25%	400	126		132
Romain Langasque	1.21%	83	111	0.30%	70	-0.3	Skybet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ross Fisher	0.48%	208	301	0.10%	100	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ryan Palmer	0.37%	270	301		100
Ryan Peake	0.22%	455	301		47
Ryggs Johnston	0.49%	204	176		14
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.29%	345	111		28
Saleh Al Kaabi	0.02%	5000	401		100
Sam Bairstow	0.76%	132	81		70
Scott Jamieson	0.99%	101	126	0.20%	100	-0.2	Skybet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Sean Crocker	0.61%	164	101		28
Sebastian Garcia	0.26%	385	151		85
Sebastian Soderberg	0.83%	120	126		28
Shubhankar Sharma	0.28%	357	176		85
Stefano Mazzoli	0.37%	270	101		132
Taehoon Ok	0.30%	333	126		47
Tobias Jonsson	0.37%	270	151		14
Todd Clements	0.60%	167	91		70
Tom Vaillant	0.58%	172	91		28
Ugo Coussaud	1.76%	57	51		14
Wenyi Ding	1.55%	65	51		28
Yanhan Zhou	0.53%	189	91		28
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.69%	145	151		70
Zander Lombard	0.46%	217	91		47

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Antoine Rozner	2.01%	50	61	0.40%	9	-2	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Richie Ramsay	0.74%	135	226	0.30%	89	-2	Boyle Sports: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.21%	83	101	0.20%	68	-2	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Richie Ramsay	1.15%	87	111	0.30%	118	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Romain Langasque	1.21%	83	111	0.30%	70	-1	Skybet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Andrea Pavan	1.65%	61	67	0.20%	70	-1	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Johannes Veerman	1.06%	94	111	0.20%	47	-1	Star Sports: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Scott Jamieson	0.99%	101	126	0.20%	85	-1	Skybet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Martin Couvra	1.77%	56	61	0.10%	14	-1	BetMGM: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.