Simulation Results: Qatar Masters

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 21 -0.1 Skybet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adam Bresnu 0.12% 833 501 131
Adrian Otaegui 1.37% 73 151 0.70% 67 -0.7 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adrien Dumont De Chassart 0.62% 161 71 8
Adrien Saddier 1.24% 81 56 35
Albert Boneta 0.10% 1000 401 122
Alejandro Del Rey 0.85% 118 51 67
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.44% 69 67 25
Alexander George Frances 0.02% 5000 1001 42
Alexander Knappe 0.10% 1000 751 100
Alexander Levy 0.09% 1111 751 116
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.42% 238 251 65
Alvaro Quiros 0.04% 2500 1001 58
Andrea Pavan 0.78% 128 81 19
Andrew Wilson 0.48% 208 151
Andy Sullivan 1.60% 63 56 106
Angel Ayora 0.73% 137 56 14
Angel Hidalgo 0.45% 222 176 42
Antoine Rozner 1.56% 64 34 4
Bastien Amat 0.04% 2500 301 58
Ben Schmidt 0.17% 588 301 5
Benjamin Hebert 0.20% 500 501 19
Bernd Wiesberger 1.57% 64 81 0.30% 61 -0.3 Paddy Power: 80/1, 7pl, 1/5
Brandon Robinson Thompson 1.09% 92 91 3
Brandon Stone 1.15% 87 81 67
Brandon Wu 0.83% 120 176 0.30% 25 -0.3 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Callum Shinkwin 0.53% 189 176
Callum Tarren 0.89% 112 101 61
Calum Fitzgerald 0.00% 10000 4001 137
Casey Jarvis 0.59% 169 101 66
Chris Wood 0.05% 2000 1501 92
Clement Sordet 0.50% 200 151 106
Conor Purcell 0.15% 667 351 42
Corey Shaun 0.20% 500 351 122
Dale Whitnell 0.29% 345 351 55
Dan Bradbury 1.15% 87 101 0.20% 78 -0.2 Skybet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dan Erickson 0.04% 2500 1001 126
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 1.25% 80 76 10
Daniel Gale 0.10% 1000 501 106
Daniel Gavins 0.10% 1000 2001 0.10% 116 -0.1 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Hillier 1.48% 68 51 25
Daniil Sokolov 0.00% 10000 5001 126
Darius Van Driel 0.59% 169 201 0.10% 92 -0.1 Paddy Power: 200/1, 7pl, 1/5
Darren Fichardt 0.19% 526 501 21
David Micheluzzi 0.49% 204 81 92
David Ravetto 0.43% 233 126 35
Davis Bryant 0.10% 1000 501 78
Deon Germishuys 0.43% 233 251 116
Dominic Mcglinchey 0.01% 10000 4001 78
Dylan Frittelli 0.47% 213 151 78
Eddie Pepperell 0.59% 169 101 92
Elvis Smylie 0.20% 500 151 131
Ewen Ferguson 2.28% 44 46 0.10% Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.71% 141 201 0.20% 55 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Francesco Laporta 1.61% 62 56 21
Frederic Lacroix 0.77% 130 101 106
Gavin Green 1.33% 75 111 0.40% 92 -0.4 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
George Coetzee 0.14% 714 251 100
Grant Forrest 0.57% 175 126 67
Gregorio De Leo 0.05% 2000 351 116
Guido Migliozzi 1.24% 81 41 116
Hamish Brown 0.37% 270 91 78
Haotong Li 1.15% 87 51 1
Ivan Cantero 1.00% 100 41 14
Jack Senior 0.27% 370 201 25
Jacob Skov Olesen 0.62% 161 201 0.10% 78 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.55% 182 126 106
Jannik De Bruyn 0.30% 333 251 126
Jason Scrivener 1.07% 93 71 122
Jayden Schaper 0.80% 125 101 5
Jean Bekirian 0.05% 2000 501 42
Jeff Winther 0.51% 196 201 25
Jens Dantorp 0.74% 135 151 0.10% 78 -0.1 BetVictor: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeong Weon Ko 0.37% 270 301 67
Joakim Lagergren 0.29% 345 151 106
Joe Dean 1.57% 64 56
Joel Girrbach 0.24% 417 301 78
Joel Moscatel 0.23% 435 226 133
Johannes Veerman 1.82% 55 29 67
John Parry 0.78% 128 111 21
Jordan Gumberg 0.23% 435 401 116
Jordan Smith 3.88% 26 21 139
Jorge Campillo 2.72% 37 29 50
Joshua Berry 0.06% 1667 1001 106
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.09% 1111 501 55
Julien Guerrier 2.48% 40 46 0.30% 50 -0.3 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Harding 0.21% 476 501 106
Kazuma Kobori 0.45% 222 151 67
Keita Nakajima 1.19% 84 41 42
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.33% 303 176 50
Kristoffer Reitan 0.59% 169 151 14
Laurie Canter 4.69% 21 13 35
Louis De Jager 0.40% 250 251 139
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.24% 417 351 100
Manuel Elvira 0.27% 370 251 25
Marcel Schneider 0.72% 139 111 14
Marcel Siem 0.46% 217 201 42
Marcus Armitage 0.81% 123 101 100
Marcus Kinhult 0.92% 109 101 126
Martin Couvra 0.55% 182 126 5
Matthew Baldwin 0.18% 556 401 78
Matthew Jordan 1.80% 56 41 10
Matthias Schwab 0.40% 250 251 78
Maximilian Kieffer 0.63% 159 151 58
Mikael Lindberg 0.19% 526 351 100
Mike Lorenzo-Vera 0.27% 370 176 42
Minkyu Kim 0.23% 435 251 8
Nacho Elvira 0.94% 106 111 25
Nathan Kimsey 0.92% 109 176 0.40% Betfair: 175/1, 7pl, 1/5
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.59% 169 151 35
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.54% 185 226 0.10% 106 -0.1 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Niklas Lemke 0.22% 455 251 10
Oliver Lindell 0.26% 385 126 14
Pablo Larrazabal 1.21% 83 76 92
Pierre Pineau 0.09% 1111 751 25
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.39% 256 176 126
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 1.54% 65 46 2
Ricardo Gouveia 0.48% 208 91 100
Richard Mansell 1.29% 78 81 0.10% 92 -0.1 Paddy Power: 80/1, 7pl, 1/5
Richie Ramsay 1.41% 71 151 0.80% 42 -0.8 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robin Williams 0.39% 256 201 78
Ross Fisher 0.70% 143 226 0.30% 92 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Van Velzen 0.16% 625 501 61
Ryggs Johnston 0.22% 455 176 61
Saleh Al Kaabi 0.00% 10000 5001 138
Sam Bairstow 1.59% 63 51 10
Scott Jamieson 2.07% 48 51 0.10% 106 -0.1 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sean Crocker 0.80% 125 126 25
Shergo Al Kurdi 0.00% 10000 4001 133
Shubhankar Sharma 0.77% 130 161 0.10% 67 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Simon Forsstrom 0.24% 417 501 122
Takumi Kanaya 0.72% 139 56 67
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.48% 208 151 25
Thomas Aiken 0.78% 128 251 0.40% 67 -0.4 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Todd Clements 0.60% 167 176 50
Tom Vaillant 0.65% 154 101 50
Troy Merritt 0.36% 278 251 78
Ugo Coussaud 1.57% 64 61 35
Veer Ahlawat 0.19% 526 501 136
Wenyi Ding 0.72% 139 67 35
Wilco Nienaber 0.55% 182 91 35
Yannik Paul 0.97% 103 151 0.30% 78 -0.3 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 67 -0.1 BetVictor: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zihao Jin 0.19% 526 251 135

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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