Simulation Results: Nexo Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.95% 105 151 0.30% 67 -0.3 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adrian Otaegui 0.57% 175 141 56
Albert Boneta 0.29% 345 401 70
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.30% 77 56 31
Alexander George Frances 0.09% 1111 1251 139
Alexander Levy 0.32% 313 251 107
Alexander Settemsdal 0.05% 2000 2001 13
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.18% 556 501 82
Andreas Halvorsen 0.58% 172 176 42
Andrew Wilson 0.52% 192 151 52
Andy Sullivan 2.18% 46 41 7
Angel Ayora 1.30% 77 41 70
Bastien Amat 0.05% 2000 1251 107
Ben Schmidt 0.31% 323 151 13
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.12% 833 1001 139
Benjamin Hebert 0.48% 208 226 96
Bernd Wiesberger 0.61% 164 126 96
Bjorn Akesson 0.07% 1429 1251 70
Brandon Robinson Thompson 1.78% 56 61 0.10% 27 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 50/1, 8pl, 1/5
Brandon Wu 0.39% 256 351 0.10% 107 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brett Coletta 0.01% 10000 2501 152
Callum Shinkwin 0.64% 156 101 119
Callum Tarren 0.80% 125 111 107
Calum Hill 0.89% 112 67 70
Casey Jarvis 0.32% 313 201 13
Christofer Blomstrand 0.12% 833 1251 119
Clement Sordet 0.55% 182 151 31
Connor Syme 0.81% 123 81 96
Conor Purcell 0.35% 286 176 42
Corey Shaun 0.10% 1000 751 126
Daan Huizing 0.20% 500 501 19
Dale Whitnell 0.44% 227 226 96
Dan Bradbury 0.78% 128 111 82
Dan Erickson 0.32% 313 501 0.10% 31 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 1.75% 57 34 19
Daniel Gale 0.20% 500 501 151
Daniel Young 0.52% 192 91 27
Danny List 0.22% 455 401 139
Darius Van Driel 0.50% 200 176 57
David Horsey 0.37% 270 251 126
David Law 0.85% 118 76 42
David Micheluzzi 0.44% 227 226 10
David Ravetto 0.95% 105 101 119
Davis Bryant 1.06% 94 141 0.40% 48 -0.4 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Deon Germishuys 0.21% 476 401 70
Dylan Naidoo 0.23% 435 301 96
Eddie Pepperell 1.02% 98 81 10
Edoardo Molinari 0.87% 115 91
Elvis Smylie 0.68% 147 91 31
Erik Barnes 0.00% 10000 5001 139
Euan Walker 0.45% 222 101 96
Eugenio Chacarra 1.64% 61 46 52
Ewen Ferguson 1.66% 60 29 70
Filippo Celli 0.51% 196 151 64
Francesco Laporta 3.15% 32 26 70
Frank Kennedy 0.02% 5000 2501 82
Freddy Schott 0.42% 238 176 96
George Coetzee 0.12% 833 501 136
Graeme Robertson 0.04% 2500 1251
Grant Forrest 1.09% 92 56 1
Gregorio De Leo 0.16% 625 501 70
Gunner Wiebe 0.05% 2000 2501 126
Hamish Brown 0.28% 357 226 31
Hiroshi Iwata 0.32% 313 301 149
Ivan Cantero 0.84% 119 81 119
Jack Senior 0.56% 179 111 13
Jacob Skov Olesen 1.18% 85 61 3
James Morrison 0.20% 500 401 70
Jamie Rutherford 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 96 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jannik De Bruyn 0.19% 526 351 52
Jason Scrivener 0.90% 111 126 0.10% 42 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jean Bekirian 0.13% 769 751 149
Jeff Winther 1.37% 73 81 0.10% 82 -0.1 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jens Dantorp 0.68% 147 151 31
Jeong Weon Ko 0.28% 357 501 0.10% 147 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.06% 1667 1251 132
Joakim Lagergren 0.39% 256 91 31
Joe Dean 0.75% 133 101 2
Joel Girrbach 0.40% 250 176 96
Joel Moscatel 0.10% 1000 1001 152
John Catlin 1.08% 93 67 57
John Parry 2.40% 42 26 3
Joost Luiten 3.37% 30 36 0.60% 57 -0.6 Spreadex: 35/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Gumberg 0.20% 500 401 126
Jordan Smith 4.55% 22 15 6
Jorge Campillo 2.27% 44 41 48
Julien Brun 0.11% 909 601 48
Justin Harding 0.09% 1111 1001 13
Justin Walters 0.19% 526 501 107
Kazuma Kobori 1.77% 56 56 107
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.45% 222 201 31
Kristoffer Reitan 3.05% 33 19 3
Louis Albertse 0.16% 625 1501 0.10% 31 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lukas Nemecz 0.41% 244 251 107
Marc Warren 0.08% 1250 351 19
Marco Penge 2.69% 37 13 27
Marcus Armitage 0.99% 101 81 107
Marcus Kinhult 0.56% 179 126 25
Martin Laird 1.52% 66 51 42
Martin Trainer 0.00% 10000 5001 70
Matthew Baldwin 0.14% 714 501 19
Matthew Jordan 2.06% 49 34 82
Matthew Southgate 0.36% 278 126 96
Matthias Schwab 0.13% 769 1251 0.10% 70 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthis Besard 0.28% 357 401 13
Maximilian Rottluff 0.43% 233 251 82
Maximilian Steinlechner 0.45% 222 126 42
Mikael Lindberg 0.20% 500 401 82
Minkyu Kim 0.54% 185 201 147
Nacho Elvira 0.64% 156 126 139
Nathan Kimsey 1.62% 62 41 126
Neil Schietekat 0.02% 5000 2501 64
Nicolai Kristensen 0.05% 2000 1251 146
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.27% 370 251 62
Niklas Lemke 0.48% 208 161 119
Oliver Lindell 1.87% 53 48 7
Oliver Wilson 0.18% 556 401 82
Pablo Ereno Perez 0.11% 909 301 27
Palmer Jackson 0.11% 909 751 82
Paul O'Hara 0.12% 833 1001 119
Pierre Pineau 0.04% 2500 1251 136
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.45% 222 151 31
Renato Paratore 0.39% 256 201 82
Ricardo Gouveia 0.57% 175 151 82
Richard Mansell 1.98% 51 31 82
Richard Sterne 0.29% 345 301 10
Richie Ramsay 1.19% 84 51 70
Robin Petersson 0.12% 833 751 70
Robin Williams 0.80% 125 141 0.10% 48 -0.1 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rory Franssen 0.02% 5000 1501 136
Ross Fisher 0.16% 625 401 96
Ryan Lumsden 0.19% 526 351 19
Ryan Van Velzen 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 19 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryggs Johnston 0.30% 333 201 139
Sam Bairstow 1.53% 65 41 155
Sam Hutsby 0.09% 1111 1501 139
Santiago Tarrio 0.16% 625 501 152
Scott Jamieson 0.69% 145 126 107
Sean Crocker 0.83% 120 86
Sebastian Garcia 0.14% 714 501 67
Shubhankar Sharma 0.22% 455 501 132
Simon Forsstrom 0.27% 370 226 107
Sung Kang 0.10% 1000 2501 0.10% 132 -0.1 Bet365: 2500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tadeas Tetak 0.03% 3333 1251 69
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.37% 270 251 64
Thomas Aiken 0.29% 345 401 52
Todd Clements 1.68% 60 46 7
Troy Merritt 0.59% 169 201 0.10% 31 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ugo Coussaud 1.65% 61 76 0.30% 57 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 66/1, 8pl, 1/5
Veer Ahlawat 0.13% 769 601 25
Viktor Nordwall 0.01% 10000 2501 82
Wenyi Ding 1.31% 76 56 62
Wil Besseling 0.16% 625 501 57
Wilco Nienaber 0.39% 256 176 126
Zander Lombard 0.18% 556 226 107
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 1251 132

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates